Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2859 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,161
  • Apr 27, 2017 3:07pm Apr 27, 2017 3:07pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi dbrown101 Wow you have been a member since 2011 and you choose to post here first welcome. I see you have done some groundwork in the thread, most want short cuts, well done and I wish you well on your journey. Trend can change at any time and it will be seen first in the lower time frames, knowing where we are in the overall move and being aware of with or counter trend is all we need to know, what you say from my understanding here is correct, if you know you are trading counter the longer term frame just be on your guard and trade...
Phil,

Thanks for the reply! Ive been a member since 2011 but have been around the factory since 2008. I wish i wouldve found this thread back then! About a year ago I stumbled across this thread and have been more or less "hooked" on trying to figure it all out. I couldnt think of a better place to have my first post in than TAF!!! Thanks for your help
  • #57,162
  • Apr 27, 2017 4:18pm Apr 27, 2017 4:18pm
Not trying to clutter or take over the thread but i have a couple quick questions.

In the example I just gave where the 5 min tf is counter trending the hourly and daily,

lets say i enter in with a scout and then the 5 min goes against me ( and syncs up with the hourly and daily)
would it be bad MO to try to rescue scout (essentially against the major trend)rather than killing it and flipping? I know this has been discussed in the thread but im just trying to gain clarity. It is probably not wise to do so and is probably dependent on situation and capitalization, but i am wondering if there are certain situations where this could be an option or if it is something to never be attempted.

Also, I live in the US and Im unfortunately subject to FIFO rules. It seems to me that the FIFO would cause some problems in this strategy. Im just curious as to how US traders get around that.
  • #57,163
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:37am Apr 28, 2017 1:37am
Quoting dbrown101
Not trying to clutter or take over the thread but i have a couple quick questions. In the example I just gave where the 5 min tf is counter trending the hourly and daily, lets say i enter in with a scout and then the 5 min goes against me ( and syncs up with the hourly and daily) would it be bad MO to try to rescue scout (essentially against the major trend)rather than killing it and flipping? I know this has been discussed in the thread but im just trying to gain clarity. It is probably not wise to do so and is probably dependent on situation and...
Hi dbrown101

no problem, i started myself about 2008 as well, found this thread about 2010 as only registered with this site to say 'thanks' to fti for sharing all that is here, but everyone was so helpful and kind in this thread i am still here posting.

firstly you should understand that scouts should be expendable, they are there to help you with your 'feel' of the current flow and if used correctly will help stop you making a bigger mistake.

from my point of view on this i would kill a scout that i know to be counter the higher frames move if i thought i had entered wrongly/badly timed.

do read AOW pdf in the thread and try to internalise it with your trading MO, the tactics and strategies are endless, if you have trouble finding it i can post it for you.

i know others who are subject to FIFO rules use 2 accounts for some of their trading strategies.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,164
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:21am Apr 28, 2017 2:21am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} not sure if i am correct on this, but what you see, might be more algos entering the market. is this the kind of pa you are feeling? because i also felt like the terrain changed alot since 1-2 years ago. in any case, its a pretty tough question if you ask me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V43a-KxLFcg
Yeh thanks for that reminder - I agree there is some funny stuff goin on - but we need to adjust/adapt constantly to dance with her I guess. Thanks again.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,165
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:23am Apr 28, 2017 2:23am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex is good to see you back my friend the blue lines in the chart below off the highs on the uptrend are all the same size, i would use the average time, which session and the last low and high to judge if i am holding on too long. regards Phil. {image}
Thanks so much for that my friend- will study your response against the chart - think I sort of do what you're sayin - - I have been doin sth similar on timing but you have given me a more complete answer - cheers

If the price behaves only like your first wave long small overlapping waves - I used to interpret that as a bit weak - and I have seen it so - but I have also seen it go on like that for ages - never sure when to get in/attack/ how many numbers etc - it confuses me.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,166
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:36am Apr 28, 2017 2:36am
Quoting dbrown101
Hello Everyone, Firstly, i want to thank FTI and everyone who contributed to the wealth of knowledge this decade old thread contains. it is quite the read! I have read through the first 200 pages a couple of times and have searched through the much of the thread in order to understand this approach to the market. I am however hung up on the concept of "flowing with the market" I am wondering if it goes against the MO .......
Somewhere in the thread FTI talks about sitting at the bus stop but the bus turns up on the other side and what to do - find that it may help.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,167
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:39am Apr 28, 2017 2:39am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks so much for that my friend- will study your response against the chart - think I sort of do what you're sayin If the price behaves only like your first wave long small overlapping waves - I used to interpret that as a bit weak - and I have seen it so - but I have also seen it go on like that for ages - never sure when to get in/attack/ how many numbers etc - it confuses me. Alex
Hi Alex

sometimes the market is easier for us to read/feel than others, trade what you understand is a good general part of any MO. aside is also a position my friend.

basically when there are parts you understand in the randomness of the moves. no one can read every move the price makes, so most of the time it is just best guess from the clues balanced against the risk to your account.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,168
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:50am Apr 28, 2017 2:50am
Quoting dbrown101
Not trying to clutter or take over the thread but i have a couple quick questions. In the example I just gave where the 5 min tf is counter trending the hourly and daily, lets say i enter in with a scout and then the 5 min goes against me.....
Hi - here is my advice - I spent too much time at start focusing on rescue and being right or wrong - should I do this or that - that is rigidity - focus on attack and learning attack - do this on demo until you get the hang of it then go live - I believe that if you know how to attack then rescue takes care of itself a bit - although we can always have a bad day when should have stayed in bed. It is easy to be brave and full of bravado in rescue even when wrong - man with back to wall - but killing instinct in attack is crucial. If I had my time again i would focus on attack first and then work on rescue skills. Try to go with momentum and watch out for buying/selling zone behaviour big round numbers, weakness, signs of reversals.

I hope it helps but I would defo start with attack - 20 men in attack that win the battle can overcome 1/2 men in small losses. I do hate to kill a scout mind - doh.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,169
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:00am Apr 28, 2017 8:00am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yeh thanks for that reminder - I agree there is some funny stuff goin on - but we need to adjust/adapt constantly to dance with her I guess. Thanks again. Alex
hey everyone, how's it going?

i have realized that the three kingdoms relationship has changed since the new year..

those watching must have realized this too..


it used to be EUR&XAU, CHF&JPY . and all walked hand in hand.

now they have switched partners with EUR& CHF dancing, and XAU&JPY dancing to a different beat. Being that the safe haven currency factor of XAU&JPY are more apparent nowadays. JPY being a safe haven because it is a deep market.

these are the four pairs that i watch.. because every once in a while still in a blue moon, sometimes they still all dance together..

in the stars.. lol

so adapting is very crucial.

Hope everything is well with everyone! Take care.
  • #57,170
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:03am Apr 28, 2017 8:03am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yeh thanks for that reminder - I agree there is some funny stuff goin on - but we need to adjust/adapt constantly to dance with her I guess. Thanks again. Alex
well as another added confirmation, indianguyvinny also mentioned earlier this year he felt the market terrain change too, he had posted that in this thread earlier this year.
  • #57,171
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:18am Apr 28, 2017 8:18am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} well as another added confirmation, indianguyvinny also mentioned earlier this year he felt the market terrain change too, he had posted that in this thread earlier this year.
yeh cheers will have a look - there are always gonna be changes I guess but the market is clearly everything in summation so think we can still trade well and need to watch for the way she dances and changes her dancing.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,172
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:31am Apr 28, 2017 8:31am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} yeh cheers will have a look - there are always gonna be changes I guess but the market is clearly everything in summation so think we can still trade well and need to watch for the way she dances and changes her dancing. Alex
yep, though im wondering how to adjust to this, since sometimes the volatility forces the positions into bad spots.
  • #57,173
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:44am Apr 28, 2017 8:44am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi dbrown101 no problem, i started myself about 2008 as well, found this thread about 2010 as only registered with this site to say 'thanks' to fti for sharing all that is here, but everyone was so helpful and kind in this thread i am still here posting. firstly you should understand that scouts should be expendable, they are there to help you with your 'feel' of the current flow and if used correctly will help stop you making a bigger mistake. from my point of view on this i would kill a scout that i know to be counter the higher frames...
Phil,

Thanks for the reply. I have read art of war and a few other books recommended in this thread. I plan on giving AOW another read. I do realize that killing the scout in that situation is most likely the better option. Im just trying to make sure i understand properly. i see how effective this MO could be if you understand it or how dangerous it could be if you dont.
  • #57,174
  • Apr 28, 2017 9:09am Apr 28, 2017 9:09am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Somewhere in the thread FTI talks about sitting at the bus stop but the bus turns up on the other side and what to do - find that it may help. Alex
Alex,

Thank you for the advice! I will put some more focus into attacking. I have read the bus analogy several times. I may go back and re-read the thread again because i always seem to extract something new every time i read it.
I realize my questions are little redundant as to what is already mentioned in the thread. Just wanting to make sure i grasp what is taught here!
  • #57,175
  • Edited 3:57am Apr 29, 2017 3:43am | Edited 3:57am
Hello Friends,

Apart from all the Wisdom, serious-minded bussiness approach and common sense, His Majesty Forex Spot trading requires the Pain Tolerance. That is very individual and no book nor mentoring would be of much help. Could you fight your own Pain Threshold and just play with your Tolerance while having the serious-minded bussiness approach? Then, it must be easy to succeed. IMHO.

Enjoy the Trading Process!

Kind regards,

Exnav

Inserted Video


P.S. Which stage en route to get it correct?
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,176
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:30am Apr 29, 2017 8:30am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi - here is my advice - I spent too much time at start focusing on rescue and being right or wrong - should I do this or that - that is rigidity - focus on attack and learning attack - do this on demo until you get the hang of it then go live - I believe that if you know how to attack then rescue takes care of itself a bit - although we can always have a bad day when should have stayed in bed. It is easy to be brave and full of bravado in rescue even when wrong - man with back to wall - but killing instinct in attack is crucial....
i notice this too, if you rescue too many times, means you are enter at wrong timing,
attack is the way to bring the money in.
for what i notice is 3kingdom had already help us in the attack and it help to reduce the mistake/rescue also.

and, for the lots size of scout, its better to put it in very small position, and try not to use scout to make profits.
if scout if too big/normal size, when the market suddenly move 40-60 pips away, the scout can make a huge damage to your books.
  • #57,177
  • Apr 29, 2017 9:15am Apr 29, 2017 9:15am
From my little understanding.

rescue is (besiade loking for entry signals of FTI) most misunderstood part of this thread. Ability to KNOW or SEE when you could/should rescue of position come from practising if we as new to this TRY to rescue we more often then not just averege loss which FTI said is stupid and just EGO play. He plainly said at first when you are novice just CUT from practice and practice you will "SEE" when you can and when you just plainly fool yourself .

Just my poin of view lets talk about it argue and fin out what has been left for us here.
  • #57,178
  • Apr 29, 2017 6:58pm Apr 29, 2017 6:58pm
Quoting pdym
From my little understanding. rescue is (besiade loking for entry signals of FTI) most misunderstood part of this thread. Ability to KNOW or SEE when you could/should rescue of position come from practising if we as new to this TRY to rescue we more often then not just averege loss which FTI said is stupid and just EGO play. He plainly said at first when you are novice just CUT from practice and practice you will "SEE" when you can and when you just plainly fool yourself . Just my poin of view lets talk about it argue and fin out what has...
e..... ok.
i go and read it again.
  • #57,179
  • Apr 29, 2017 10:25pm Apr 29, 2017 10:25pm
How is everyone doing...see some new faces..
  • #57,180
  • Apr 30, 2017 1:25am Apr 30, 2017 1:25am
Quoting indianguyinny24
How is everyone doing...see some new faces..
Hi V

good to see you around again, things are going well for me thanks, how is it for you my friend, enjoying being back trading?

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
23 traders viewing now