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5 years and still no strategy

  • #661
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:32pm Apr 29, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting forexer801
{quote} whoa , i actually feel pretty insulted right now, not to disagree with you there are lazy people that want to rely on some elses ea, but in this context your referring to us the ea developers, making an ea that's safe good and profitable is not easy it takes as much or more hours then trading and contains all the emotions of trading, stress , stubbornness, depression (in the process of making good eas you build loads of bad previous versions to get to the good one ). in some cases i would argue that making eas is even more difficult than...
I apologize if I offended you, I tend to have very strong opinions. That said, if you can't trade profitably manually, how can you write a computer script to do just that? Any profitable EA has to be developed by a trader who actually knows what he or she is doing manually. Personally I don't think it's possible to write an EA that can identify the optimal entries in the market. Maybe it's possible to write one that is marginally profitable, I don't know for sure, because a lot of EA published results out there have results published which are cherrypicked from past market conditions (or retrofitted to do well on past market conditions) or do not disclose severe limitations like a high risk of ruin. In any case I would think most people would like to learn how to fish, not have something fish for them which can and may stop working at any time. Surely there is a certain intellectual satisfaction from learning how to become self sufficient instead of relying on someone or something else, because if at some point things do go wrong you can understand why and have confidence in your personal knowledge and experience.

If someone offered to give me an EA that had a 50% performance gain year over year for the past 10 years, in exchange for stopping my pursuit of knowledge in trading manually, I would tell them they could keep the EA.
  • #662
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:58pm Apr 29, 2017 2:58pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I apologize if I offended you, I tend to have very strong opinions. That said, if you can't trade profitably without an EA, how can you write a computer script to do just that? Any profitable EA has to be developed by a trader who actually knows what he or she is doing manually. Personally I don't think it's possible to write an EA that can identify the optimal entries in the market. Maybe it's possible to write one that is marginally profitable, I don't know for sure, because a lot of EA published results out there have results published...

this such an old fashion way of thinking.
of course people cherry pick, even traders do if i asked you about your trades would you talk about your account breaking ones or your best ones , the majority would talk about their best ones, it's only natural, im not saying its right just that its natural, i do my best to avoid this personally.

of course, there are eas that do damage or look deceivingly good, but it depends on strat and trade manager in ea. its not only about optimal entries if your on 15m and hold a trade for hours or day in a normal day with no big market-moving news (brexit etc.. ) optimal entries dont really matter.
you always run eas on demos for x amount of time in some cases its up to a year or more to find its average risk, return etc..

ea developers know how to fish, just we also know that one fishing rod will do less work than multiple crew fishing vessel with one captain.

its not that i disagree
(i know someone who had ea using martingale strat ,start with 5k build it up to 100k in 3 months and lost it all in about a week, that was martingale just a matter of time)
you because eas can do just about anything you code them to do fail , succeed what ever you want, just your so closed minded, you need to consider more before speaking.

saying eas are bad as a whole is like someone saying, "your a trader , where is your million salary a month " some people do earn that and some don't, some even lose money, well it's exactly the same with eas!
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #663
  • Apr 29, 2017 3:05pm Apr 29, 2017 3:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Dude - that's two yrs of my research you are asking me to share. if you are tracking my deleted posts, I have already shared around the four (TR, TC, TRF, TCF) trending conditions in each direction. Someone quickly referred to this being all hocus pocus. For each Up or Down HTF direction: TC = Trend Continuation TR = Trend Reversal TCF = Trend Continuation Following (Confirmation of Trend Continuation resulting in adding to winners i.e. Stacking) TRF = Trend Reversal Following ((Confirmation of Trend Reversal resulting in change in trend,...
(your above post )
yeah you have to control yourself otherwise you just feel like a kid in a candy shop, wanting to take and try everything.

man you cant share, something like that and not give up the corresponding attachments.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #664
  • Apr 29, 2017 3:06pm Apr 29, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
tinyurl.com/veefx

hahaha to true right now , ill go back to work haha
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #665
  • Apr 29, 2017 3:18pm Apr 29, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have never ever interacted or replied to posts from CrucialPoint until today but believe me, his posts over the years are VERY insightful and thoughtful. They generate incredible investigatory insight into how markets function. Take baby steps, take the enlightenment offered for free on public forums if they make sense and create your own path. PipEasy gave us the universal and market Neutral framework/blueprint. There are literally unlimited ways to cut the pie. Majority just won't be symmetrical but tiny little crumbs from CrucualPoint...

ok ill check it all out ,seems interesting have looked at a couple of theirs already.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #666
  • Apr 29, 2017 5:01pm Apr 29, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting forexer801
When I read this I feel like your all high and I'm getting a 2nd hand high.
You should. You should feel high every day of your life. When you stop rewarding your impulses all that's left is clarity.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #667
  • Apr 29, 2017 5:35pm Apr 29, 2017 5:35pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} You can calculate di effects, not love as itself
Well, first, you'd have to know the effects which caused the love which caused the effects. The rabbit hole goes deep until you realize you're falling.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #668
  • Apr 30, 2017 1:08am Apr 30, 2017 1:08am
Quoting RondaRousey
In regards to CrucialPoint, I have not seen any TE or any market calls he has made to make me believe he knows what he is doing. A lengthy post just means he has too much time on his hands. I have read some of his posts and has it made me a better trader? NO. Does he provide pointers to better entries or exits or better stop losses or targets? NO Very suspicious of posters who rarely or never post on markets they trade yet make lengthy posts on threads from struggling traders. Some posters just post to just get likes to boost their ego and that...
he doesnt trade, posts a lot of bs tho, many here seem to like it, groopies or additional usernames for sure
  • #669
  • Apr 30, 2017 2:58am Apr 30, 2017 2:58am
Quoting Pipalicious
Price goes Up, Down, Sideways* *defined as a move that does not cover costs nor provides sufficient profit potential. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0 How do you apply this principle to the market to turn the odds in your favour?
This is how.
for all intent and purposes; The financial markets are random.
You let your "random walk" through the price series change the odds in your favor for every trade - bet (i.e opening a door)
A trade is like a opening a door in the Monty Hall problem. The trade (bet) is adjusted according to the current result.

Here is the result of a model based on this principle.

Random entries, no stop loss ==>
Notice the relatively long but upward series of flat areas and the sudden bursts ... (that's a car behind "door number 3!" (: )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #670
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:23am Apr 30, 2017 3:23am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} This is how. for all intent and purposes; The financial markets are random. You let your "random walk" through the price series change the odds in your favor for every trade - bet (i.e opening a door) A trade is like a opening a door in the Monty Hall problem. The trade (bet) is adjusted according to the current result. Here is the result of a model based on this principle. Random entries, no stop loss ==> Notice the relatively long but upward series of flat areas and the sudden bursts ... (that's a car behind "door number 3!" (: ) {image}...
looks similar to a backtest i had before.

it comes out looking like steps / stairs. the few winning trades increase your equity, and the majority of trades which are losing trades are set to minimized loss or BE.

so, losing trades will result in a flat line, while a winning trade will create a boost in equity, creating a step in a stair.

Truly random walk, meaning do not code a clear signal for entries. as for winners, leave it to the market to dictate how much you win.

i dont have a picture of it but below is another backtest created on the concept of no clear entry, maybe it has an edge. maybe it bombs in a real time environment.

For me, I write EAs not looking for the best possible live results... but to create the prettiest looking equity pictures in backtest. i am an EA artist lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #671
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:37am Apr 30, 2017 3:37am
Quoting DClearsky
It seems rather odd, somehow, that Taoism, the way of the Whole Man, the True Man, the Spirit Man (to use a few Taoist terms), is for the most part interpreted here in the West by the Scholarly Owlby the Brain, the Academician, the dry-as-dust Absentminded Professor. Far from reflecting the Taoist ideal of wholeness and independence, this incomplete and unbalanced creature divides all kinds of abstract things into little categories and compartments, while remaining rather helpless and disorganized in his daily life. Rather than learn from Taoist...
Well, all the informations are available to anyone on the web, and they are free.
The funny thing is that you won't see any information until you are ready to see; also here in FF there's a series of posts that are revealing a big part of the so called secret knowledge, which is not secret at all, but people do not consider them. There are concepts that are far away from common way of thinking and common beliefs and you cannot even conceive them unless you open your mind and look beyond your beliefs and convictions.
A process of mind re-education is needed and this is something that no one can do in your place, it is a personal path each person has to do on his own whether there is the will to grow.
Each one has to do his own work: the problem is expectation:
most of the people expect others to do the work and to tell them even the abc of everything; they want it for free and without commitment; and finally they expect to be told what they want to hear, so as soon as they have to rediscuss what they believe to know, they also blame you for the informations you are providing.
It is only a matter of mindfulness.
  • #672
  • Apr 30, 2017 4:04am Apr 30, 2017 4:04am
There is no absolute up or down, as Aristotle taught; no absolute position in space; but the position of a body is relative to that of other bodies. Everywhere there is incessant relative change in position throughout the universe, and the observer is always at the center of things.

Giordano Bruno

What does this have to do with trading?
  • #673
  • Apr 30, 2017 4:09am Apr 30, 2017 4:09am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I apologize if I offended you, I tend to have very strong opinions. That said, if you can't trade profitably manually, how can you write a computer script to do just that? Any profitable EA has to be developed by a trader who actually knows what he or she is doing manually. Personally I don't think it's possible to write an EA that can identify the optimal entries in the market. Maybe it's possible to write one that is marginally profitable, I don't know for sure, because a lot of EA published results out there have results published which...
I was a fan but your post my friend is grossly unrealistic..how can you reject an ea making 50% growth for the last 10 years, are you kidding me? Lol how much do you think Goldman Sachs makes? I think you my friend love to toil just like farmers that adamantly refused tractors and continued to use hoes and pitchforks
Read in between the price!!!
  • #674
  • Apr 30, 2017 4:20am Apr 30, 2017 4:20am
Quoting DClearsky
{quote} looks similar to a backtest i had before. it comes out looking like steps / stairs. the few winning trades increase your equity, and the majority of trades which are losing trades are set to minimized loss or BE. so, losing trades will result in a flat line, while a winning trade will create a boost in equity, creating a step in a stair. Truly random walk, meaning do not code a clear signal for entries. as for winners, leave it to the market to dictate how much you win. i dont have a picture of it but below is another backtest created on...
I have created similar EAs as well. The issue is that the upside (profit) is capped so the EA is constantly recovering only to break even or a bit better when winning.
The trick is to open up the upside potential (large boosts in equity / balance)..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MontyHall2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #675
  • Apr 30, 2017 4:45am Apr 30, 2017 4:45am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I have created similar EAs as well. The issue is that the upside (profit) is capped so the EA is constantly recovering only to break even or a bit better when winning. The trick is to open up the upside potential (large boosts in equity / balance).. {image}
i wouldn't underestimate the power of Breaking Even.

spreads matter a lot in this case.

imagine your EA was able to break even on a platform offering 1.2 pips spread.

now you take that same system to another broker offering 0.8 pips spread. you would not just be breaking even, you would be up 0.4 pips on each trade.

but i leave this as just a theory
  • #676
  • Edited 5:47am Apr 30, 2017 5:37am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} but i leave this as just a theory >> this will never work in practice! This will only work in Demo. This will only look good in strategytester. Moving Stops to BE is only beneficial when you are adding to open positions (stacking) to limit risk/exposure from a sudden reversal. Moving Stops to BE is only beneficial is you are taking partial profits. If none of the above, then it simply becomes a piggy bank for your broker. None of the platforms allow you to 'view' spread widening during open/close of orders (unless you are starring at tick...
agreed.

imagine expecting to break even +0 pips on every losing trade, but instead getting -0.2 pips on those trades due to slippage.

or one trade +5 pips, another trade -5pips. but instead getting +4.8 and -5.2 .

so why do self driving cars still crash? why do drones still miss their target?

one day machines and EAs will take over the jobs of traders, but not yet my friends.. not yet!

adding to this.. I wouldnt use any manual strategy that can be written into a simple EA
  • #677
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:18am Apr 30, 2017 6:18am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} To bring demo outcome close to live while testing a strategy, I record spread for the entire week to come up with an average spread size for each pair. Slippage is about 5 times the average spread. Space/buffer is also a Timeframe based multiple of (average spread+slippage). You do this and it will be very hard for your broker to play games :-)

im not saying the strats good or bad, this is more of a normative statement .
for eas if you do your maths right you it might be possible, if you open a trade it goes against you, you open another and it goes in that direction. you use that one to cancel out loss.

to do this do sizing : risk per trade =X(1%)
(1% of account)-(avg spread/current spread safer to do avg) -(commission)-(othercost)= risk and lot size

problems you will encounter= can't hold trade longer than a day. making this as ea will be impossible almost, and i say almost because i cant be bothered to list all the negatives of this. your trying to make an ea that makes near perfect trades on to cancel out losses, why not just use the logic that just makes the good trades? this turns into a gambling machine that runs on hope, next you be thinking why your down each day and increase the risk every day, slowly turning your account inside out.


while ago i tried to make an ea for loss recovery, i did more work then id like to admit before just seeing that I'm trying to make an ea that is profitable by 1-2% every time without increasing risk or anything else stupid ,its close to impossible.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} To bring demo outcome close to live while testing a strategy, I record spread for the entire week to come up with an average spread size for each pair. Slippage is about 5 times the average spread. Space/buffer is also a Timeframe based multiple of (average spread+slippage). You do this and it will be very hard for your broker to play games :-)
may have repeated a bit of what you said , sorry.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #678
  • Edited 7:14am Apr 30, 2017 6:55am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting VEEFX
You do this and it will be very hard for your broker to play games :-)
Live slippage to me shows that the broker isn't playing any games. Slippage occurs due to the aggregated quotes from the liquidity providers (tier 1 banks). Although with good liquidity, slippage should be minimal.

Red flag should be when you get perfect entry on every trade price that you request. Likely means that the broker is a market maker, thus they still give you the price for your trade even if that price is not quoted to them from a liquidity provider..

edit: actually, that might not be true either.
Bottom line is, I find a good broker, and if a strategy doesn't work I don't blame them, I revise the god damn strategy.

Quoting forexer801
your trying to make an ea that makes near perfect trades on to cancel out losses, why not just use the logic that just makes the good trades?
because with a random walk EA based on probability, we do not know which trade will turn out to be the good trade. it is all based on probability and the fact that in the long run the statistics will hold and our edge will prove successful.
  • #679
  • Edited 7:48am Apr 30, 2017 7:24am | Edited 7:48am
Quoting DClearsky
{quote} Live slippage to me shows that the broker isn't playing any games. Slippage occurs due to the aggregated quotes from the liquidity providers (tier 1 banks). Although with good liquidity, slippage should be minimal. Red flag should be when you get perfect entry on every trade price that you request. Likely means that the broker is a market maker, thus they still give you the price for your trade even if that price is not quoted to them from a liquidity provider.. edit: actually, that might not be true either. Bottom line is, I find...
that is true in some cases, I have never thought about it.
  • #680
  • Apr 30, 2017 7:40am Apr 30, 2017 7:40am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} This is how. for all intent and purposes; The financial markets are random. You let your "random walk" through the price series change the odds in your favor for every trade - bet (i.e opening a door) A trade is like a opening a door in the Monty Hall problem. The trade (bet) is adjusted according to the current result. Here is the result of a model based on this principle. Random entries, no stop loss ==> Notice the relatively long but upward series of flat areas and the sudden bursts ... (that's a car behind "door number 3!" (: ) {image}...
Congrats Ming, you really have figured it out.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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