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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,641
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:17am Apr 28, 2017 4:17am
Quoting gatorinla
waking up to an alarm.. shorted one eu. 0940.. giving 20 sl.. some R below 0948 may slow or stop it..
Eu weekly 50 ema @ 109.53. Lets see what it does.
  • #150,642
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:23am Apr 28, 2017 4:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} It's pretty much a done deal I think in the macro front. End of QE expectations plays are on sight, early birds after French election is cleared, 'official' trigger as early as June/July ECB to complete the core of expectations by late Q4....then will need to start checking rates... Don't forget that German elections are coming and that will accelerate the process even further via political weight and noise from election via inflation. sisse
To me it seems we are slowly closing the window to make the MT extension down - timewise. It would have to be a super sharp ST leg down and I do not see from where it may come. If we change on EU to MT neutral after 2nd round of elections =) I see just a very wide and complex chop of ST legs to form the bottom around recent lvls.
  • #150,643
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:23am Apr 28, 2017 4:23am
Quoting gatorinla
waking up to an alarm.. shorted one eu. 0940.. giving 20 sl.. some R below 0948 may slow or stop it..
lowered s/l to 13pips
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,644
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:27am Apr 28, 2017 4:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} lowered s/l to 13pips
i will lower s/l later if able. st target 0760, back to bed..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,645
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:35am Apr 28, 2017 4:35am
Quoting chester123
{quote} To me it seems we are slowly closing the window to make the MT extension down - timewise. It would have to be a super sharp ST leg down and I do not see from where it may come. If we change on EU to MT neutral after 2nd round of elections =) I see just a very wide and complex chop of ST legs to form the bottom around recent lvls.
When we completed the 1,037x target back in december we called it the easy part of the MT move was gone. Today I agree we have confirmed the easy part of the MT downtrend is definitely gone. We wont have both ducks aligned to the same side.

I agree what you are implying. Moreover anything to the downside in the Euro will shift to only come from the Dollar side and it will have to be something fast and furious from the risk side rather than from the macroecomic, monetary and/or fiscal side. In normal circumstances this will be a very marginal to non existence chance from a serious country like the US but with DT.... as hard is to believe, risk from the US will be flying over markets like crows smelling death ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,646
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:38am Apr 28, 2017 4:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i will lower s/l later if able. st target 0760, back to bed..

sleep tight, we'll leave the night light in the hall on...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #150,647
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:46am Apr 28, 2017 4:46am
Quoting sisse
{quote} When we completed the 1,037x target back in december we called it the easy part of the MT move was gone. Today I agree we have confirmed the easy part of the MT downtrend is definitely gone. We wont have both ducks aligned to the same side. I agree what you are implying. Moreover anything to the downside in the Euro will shift to only come from the Dollar side and it will have to be something fast and furious from the risk side rather than from the macroecomic, monetary and/or fiscal side. In normal circumstances this will be a very marginal...
exactly agree. On USD side: I expect FED not to press hard on rates plus we are well into the cycle so the impact is limited, on fiscal side its just an extreme nothingness so far. So I guess only an unexpected spikes in US inflation (not expected) could do it or the risk-off.

and even with the risk off the mid term extension is not guaranteed. If its just a soft non-EU risk-off euro is gonna be carried by carry trade - guess that effect can happen until monetary normalization is way way under process. So we would need either EU crises (french elections as only one on sight - not probable) or a full blown US crises for money to fly to dollar before treasuries.

I still expect this scenario to happen as DT with his approach is gonna triger some security crises most probably.

however, pitty that to trade the mid term extension on this scenarion will be super fast and hard unlike trading nice measured moves on macro trends.
  • #150,648
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:51am Apr 28, 2017 4:51am
Quoting chester123
....owever, pitty that to trade the mid term extension on this scenarion will be super fast and hard unlike trading nice measured moves on macro trends.
Textbook of a exhaustion leg, isn't it?

I would also add assuming we pass the French election, European equities (bar the UK for obvious reasons) looks extremely good and tempting to ride a solid wave across the continent.

It's a v. similar environment the US was 2 or 3 years ago before the strong bounce up in numbers. Plus now with DT in 'i hate the world mode', most of EZ markets will be a extremely good place to park large money and ride in Equities the recovery while US and UK play isolation.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,649
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:56am Apr 28, 2017 4:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i will lower s/l later if able. st target 0760, back to bed..
perfect 1.0720 is mine
  • #150,650
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:57am Apr 28, 2017 4:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Textbook of a exhaustion leg, isn't it? I would also add assuming we pass the French election, European equities (bar the UK for obvious reasons) looks extremely good and tempting to ride a solid wave across the continent. It's a v. similar environment the US was 2 or 3 years ago before the strong bounce up in numbers. Plus now with DT in 'i hate the world mode', most of EZ markets will be a extremely good place to park large money and ride in Equities the recovery while US and UK play isolation. sisse
IN EZ equities. Its hard for me to imagine the scope of the moves on ST/MT or even LT as DAX and CAC are sitting on ATHs. I know its magic lines above but do you have some lvls either ST/MT/LT to get the perspective? Plus on ATHs it all looks "too late to ride" so Im not sure how to potentionally trade that. Guess by taking the break of ATH. I have super small long positions on DAX but otherwise flat on EZ equities. Except shorting FTSE of course.
  • #150,651
  • Apr 28, 2017 5:08am Apr 28, 2017 5:08am
Quoting chester123
{quote} IN EZ equities. Its hard for me to imagine the scope of the moves on ST/MT or even LT as DAX and CAC are sitting on ATHs. I know its magic lines above but do you have some lvls either ST/MT/LT to get the perspective? Plus on ATHs it all looks "too late to ride" so Im not sure how to potentionally trade that. Guess by taking the break of ATH. I have super small long positions on DAX but otherwise flat on EZ equities. Except shorting FTSE of course.
Like we have been doing in the US the last 3 years. Buy any dip with very little risk to the downside in low volatility.

From an investment perspective, you have to do a bit more of a homework on a sectorial base but you have all to build a very nice portfolio with the periphery on (especially Ireland, Spain and Portugal) the way up in almost all sectors for the 'riskier' part. Added to a boom in the sluggish and conservative sectors from consumer goods to the old manufacturing in the core countries like (Netherlands, Germany and etc) to growth strategy sectors in Eastern Europe (especially Poland and Czech Republic)...

I will stay sidelined in Italy until further data and a bit conservative in France until some details if they are going to make reforms. UK let it alone and very far from anything mid or long term until the toll and cost of brexit negotiations is clear.

With negative rates and still cheap money ...holding cash will be a very expensive affair so plenty of opps across most asset classes in Europe.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,652
  • Apr 28, 2017 5:20am Apr 28, 2017 5:20am
Quoting chester123
{quote} To me it seems we are slowly closing the window to make the MT extension down - timewise. It would have to be a super sharp ST leg down and I do not see from where it may come. If we change on EU to MT neutral after 2nd round of elections =) I see just a very wide and complex chop of ST legs to form the bottom around recent lvls.
I still see a window. Inflation risks and priorities definitely still balanced to the downside for the ECB. The path of least resistance for upcoming economic indicators is there and it wont take much to keep potential tapering at bay while numbers need to be and stay exceedingly strong for the alternative- like the inflation number that printed just now.

I'll wait for a more general hawkish change in language from the ECB before deciding otherwise.

For now dollar in normalization no-mans land timing wise and hit by a recent run of bad data and Euro coasting as risk from the French election subsides.
  • #150,653
  • Apr 28, 2017 5:21am Apr 28, 2017 5:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Like we have been doing in the US the last 3 years. Buy any dip with very little risk to the downside in low volatility. From an investment perspective, you have to do a bit more of a homework on a sectorial base but you have all to build a very nice portfolio with the periphery on (especially Ireland, Spain and Portugal) the way up in almost all sectors for the 'riskier' part. Added to a boom in the sluggish and conservative sectors from consumer goods to the old manufacturing in the core countries like (Netherlands, Germany and etc) to...
ok, maybe its time I finally look deeper than just the indices. Will try during the weekend.
  • #150,654
  • Edited 6:56am Apr 28, 2017 6:36am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote} When we completed the 1,037x target back in december we called it the easy part of the MT move was gone. Today I agree we have confirmed the easy part of the MT downtrend is definitely gone. We wont have both ducks aligned to the same side. I agree what you are implying. Moreover anything to the downside in the Euro will shift to only come from the Dollar side and it will have to be something fast and furious from the risk side rather than from the macroecomic, monetary and/or fiscal side. In normal circumstances this will be a very marginal...
Doesn't this somewhat uncharted environment (us policy as the wild card risk factor) make the exhaustion leg down for eu an even less likely outcome to wait and watch for (let alone position for) because A) if the US is the catalyst for whatever risk events pan out, then the dollar will not necessarily play the safe haven role it usually does....and B) It's just aligning yourself against probability to put your chips on the unknown, unpredictable risk factor to begin with. That the path of least resistance (probability) is going the other way due to a floor forming in *euro and, to a lesser degree, the litany of white house flops that look to be on the way? Maybe im making the case for MT neutral here without trying to. It's seems from my limited experience analizing this stuff, that a bet on that exhaustion leg is like a bet DT getting his tax plan (doubt it), hurling some moabs or worse at the nearest third world scuffle (doubt it), binning Nafta (flopping as I type this), and/or border tax (went the way of the buffalo already)...AND a rush to dollar due to one or more of those. OR..its Just about inflation and rate normalisation (priced in for June most likely and not a lot of time left for that to compete with the lift on *euro).
  • #150,655
  • Apr 28, 2017 6:59am Apr 28, 2017 6:59am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} .... That the path of least resistance (probability) is going the other way due to a floor forming in *euro and, to a lesser degree, the litany of white house flops that look to be on the way? Maybe im making the case for MT neutral here without trying to.
Yes. Now you are talking!!! ....thats exactly what we were discussing with Chester before.

Thats is what the key discussion is in play right now and thats why so important to get in synch as it will set the environment for the next couple of years and will make a huge difference in achieving consistent results in your trading. For now, both macroeconomic and monetary factors are [check] in both sides. The risk part is not yet clear.

If we take out populist politicians and politics/risk from the equation (sadly not on sight this time) and ceteris paribus:

  1. We have and will have ST a slightly stronger dollar as we are deep in the normalisation process and without QE but diminishing by the minute.
  2. Once ECB announces the end of QE will would start shifting Euro* to equilibrium in the pair until ECB trigger RMT.
  3. One ECB triggers RMT, the whole process end was/is forecasted to +/- coincide with the FED at the end of the tightening cycle (+/- Q2/Q3 2018) and Euro* taking the upper hand moving the pendulum in favour of the Euro* to complete the cycle....

In simple words, game changer are around the corner...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,656
  • Apr 28, 2017 7:05am Apr 28, 2017 7:05am
A noob question...
May I know what is RMT here stands for?
  • #150,657
  • Apr 28, 2017 7:08am Apr 28, 2017 7:08am
I think my watch and wait mode just got extended. Don't think I'll commit any of my hard earned scratch to an eu short position unless it's offered on a silver platter by a naked cheerleader.
Turns out changing your mind is pretty painless when your not married to your view
  • #150,658
  • Apr 28, 2017 7:30am Apr 28, 2017 7:30am
Quoting fx-anew
A noob question... May I know what is RMT here stands for?
RATES mode trading (RMT ... this is my own acronym from now on) = Sell equities, sell commodities (especially gold) buy dollar and close your eyes until is over. There will be no other fundamental force, macro numbers or else that will prime over a CB about to hike.
  • #150,659
  • Apr 28, 2017 7:46am Apr 28, 2017 7:46am
Quoting nightpipper7
{quote} RATES mode trading (RMT ... this is my own acronym from now on) = Sell equities, sell commodities (especially gold) buy dollar and close your eyes until is over. There will be no other fundamental force, macro numbers or else that will prime over a CB about to hike.

... that was sisse from way back referring specifically to then Fed policy & US markets ...
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #150,660
  • Apr 28, 2017 7:47am Apr 28, 2017 7:47am
...flop in GDP, overshoot in inflation...this will get fun in the US as macro numbers start diverging from fairy tale land DT economic plan ideas. A tweet is unavoidable after today's numbers ...

Eyes NY to close the week rather quickly today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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