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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #23,981
  • Apr 28, 2017 12:58am Apr 28, 2017 12:58am
It's narrowing down into the 10 200sma/ema, so this is going to be the initial support. Yesterday we had plenty of room to fall down to it from the highs, but today there is no room, which means that it can break to the downside. On the upside, the fib levels 61.8 and 76.4 are at 361 and 372 respectively, so we could get a bump up to one of those before it comes back down. Higher than that we're looking at a double top, but my own TA tells me 76.4 has a strong chance of capping the price, though of course prelim GDP can change all that. Support for the downside if the 10m 200ema does break is the 30m 100sma running up currently at 206, with the 50% fib right on top of it. Lower than that, and pivot level S2 is a possibility at 142,340, which is just above the H1 100sma.
  • #23,982
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:26am Apr 28, 2017 1:26am
I wonder how a MA or even better a EMA can works as support or resistance ?
  • #23,983
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:36am Apr 28, 2017 1:36am
Quoting Onizuka
I wonder how a MA or even better a EMA can works as support or resistance ?
We'll think about it. Would you rather buy something that has value to you at an average price or an above average price?
  • #23,984
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:40am Apr 28, 2017 1:40am
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} We'll think about it. Would you rather buy something that has value to you at an average price or an above average price?
I get the point.
But that is not the same as saying it works as support and resistance.
When you see price bounce on a MA, it is just an illusion of supporting price.

Anyway,
My TA for GBPJPY. Daily resistance is around 144.50 - 145.00
Trend is up, I am lookind to buy.
Good luck every one.
  • #23,985
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:15am Apr 28, 2017 2:15am
Sitting on the weekly 50. Sitting at the 61.8 of the 148/135 move. Sitting right beside circular res vis a vis 129/148x. Uj sitting on the top line of the weekly cloud. Gu right on rising circular resistance.

Must make daily low in the next 14 hours to suggest down. Open Monday at current levels has it up.

Daily at extremely os though, but that could be addressed next if it cannot sustain over 145. Even so, fallbacks may be minimal.

This is how it should have acted some months ago around 146/148
  • #23,986
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:26am Apr 28, 2017 2:26am
Quoting cat
It's narrowing down into the 10 200sma/ema, so this is going to be the initial support. Yesterday we had plenty of room to fall down to it from the highs, but today there is no room, which means that it can break to the downside. On the upside, the fib levels 61.8 and 76.4 are at 361 and 372 respectively, so we could get a bump up to one of those before it comes back down. Higher than that we're looking at a double top, but my own TA tells me 76.4 has a strong chance of capping the price, though of course prelim GDP can change all that. Support...

hellow everybody, great analysis. I will be shorting this pair now. monday is a public holiday in the UK plus all the great stuff you said...
  • #23,987
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:34am Apr 28, 2017 2:34am
Quoting cat
It's narrowing down into the 10 200sma/ema, so this is going to be the initial support. Yesterday we had plenty of room to fall down to it from the highs, but today there is no room, which means that it can break to the downside. On the upside, the fib levels 61.8 and 76.4 are at 361 and 372 respectively, so we could get a bump up to one of those before it comes back down. Higher than that we're looking at a double top, but my own TA tells me 76.4 has a strong chance of capping the price, though of course prelim GDP can change all that. Support...
Now that 76.4% is broken, watch for double top, and above that R1 @ 144.00, and the final Resistance I have today which is 144.144, though I'd be surprised if we get that high, but a good GDP number could really lift it, whilst a bad one is likely to bring it down hard.
  • #23,988
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:43am Apr 28, 2017 2:43am
TP1 144.062
Attached Image
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #23,989
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:05am Apr 28, 2017 3:05am
Watching 143.2, surely someone is going to sell a little to buy a lot. 142.5 even.
  • #23,990
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:14am Apr 28, 2017 3:14am
Quoting Onizuka
{quote} Yep a bite too early, but I will recover soon np.
Done.
Have a nice week end all.
  • #23,991
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:15am Apr 28, 2017 3:15am
Quoting edmun1388
TP1 144.062 {image}
TP1 144.062 on target
TP2 - 144.880
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 3 KB
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #23,992
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:52am Apr 28, 2017 3:52am
Bad data, but not bad enough, so technicals are in charge. 144,200 is my upper limit for today. Can it go higher? Of course it can, but that's my tops. Support is still CP @ 14,341, with the 10m 200sma/ema also on that level.
  • #23,993
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:16am Apr 28, 2017 4:16am
UJ and GU both breaking up.
  • #23,994
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:29am Apr 28, 2017 4:29am
Quoting Mpt
UJ and GU both breaking up.
Isnt both are negative correlated? How come they both will move in same direction ??
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #23,995
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:34am Apr 28, 2017 4:34am
Quoting RBlackburn
Was looking for 1 more up to 144.40 or so
Going to take profit at 144.40 and short it with 30 pip stop. Running this overbought into that daily double top could reverse today's gains imo
  • #23,996
  • Apr 28, 2017 4:37am Apr 28, 2017 4:37am
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} Going to take profit at 144.40 and short it with 30 pip stop. Running this overbought into that daily double top could reverse today's gains imo
To clarify I'm predicting today's close as a bearish candle
  • #23,997
  • Apr 28, 2017 6:17am Apr 28, 2017 6:17am
Quoting Kabuki
{quote} Isnt both are negative correlated? How come they both will move in same direction ??
JPY was so weak that it lost against all majors.
Nothing to do with GBPUSD.
GBP push stronger than USD against JPY.
That is all.
  • #23,998
  • Apr 28, 2017 7:10am Apr 28, 2017 7:10am
Quoting Onizuka
{quote} JPY was so weak that it lost against all majors. Nothing to do with GBPUSD. GBP push stronger than USD against JPY. That is all.
good.
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #23,999
  • Apr 28, 2017 11:58am Apr 28, 2017 11:58am
Quoting Onizuka
{quote} JPY was so weak that it lost against all majors. Nothing to do with GBPUSD. GBP push stronger than USD against JPY. That is all.
Now it makes sense! thanks for the explanation!
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #24,000
  • May 1, 2017 3:26am May 1, 2017 3:26am
Still waiting for at least a modest stop sweep. The demand we've seen for GBP is incredible, any little pullback is pinned out. Fund managers are reloading on the Pound and they are doing so quickly. I'm hoping we will get a modest bounce off of 145. If you are a big fish, you eat over-antsy, over-leveraged little fish. Set a buy limit under the stops and sell into them, put the old squeeze on the weak hands. Cheap liquidity. I think stops are ripe on the vine down under the recent swing lows. I've got some skin in the game, but I'm hoping the train will turn around and pick me up at wholesale prices. Baring any political idiocy, I think 150 is coming quick. 160-175 by late summer.
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