The Really Useless Thread

what would that look like in future practice? Q1 would be a start then q1X2 or half, then Q3, then q1x4 or whole

Would a eur short be good right now? 93 im somewhat scared of a massive candle shooting up taking down all my stop loss...what would be the odds

nut not to do away with nafta

Sisse with that ST Bearish USDCAD call. Ty ty

Gator can this eur level hold 093x or am I best to set shorts higher up in the 098x range?

Possibly a double whammy with CAD.

Trump has reversed his position on NAFTA (Is anyone suprised any more)
Oil is returning to buy levels in my opinion.

I see some support in USDCAD near 1.35, and I will try some longs there today if I get a chance...

placed stop @ BE

...that was it for the European morning, markets starting to get tired of flat track bullying US foreign policy (DT backtracked in less than a few hours from NAFTA...all a joke and bullying strategy against Canada and Mexico ....third world country mentality, jurassic business strategy !!!...) and very shallow details in the economic plan.

Strong earnings will hold the board this time but markets are shifting to a more cautious approach towards DT. The easy part of the DT ride is gone.

European morning session will be over at the top of the hour and we'll be set for ECB.

sisse

maybe some support in the euro near 1.0795 worth a punt, I'll consider it anyway...

ok, its time to do whatever..

GBPUSD on a very attractive spot for shorts. its on weekly res.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

I received calls from the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada asking to renegotiate NAFTA rather than terminate. I agreed..

...subject to the fact that if we do not reach a fair deal for all, we will then terminate NAFTA. Relationships are good-deal very possible!

It seems like inverse H&S.

he needs to be admitted to mental asylum thats where he belongs. not white house. I don't understand how US is functioning with a retard in there

ECB statement signals to me that the inflation is still lagging behind target. Hence, the end of QE is not yet planned.
I think a zigzag to 1.075 (ECB Statement) and up to 1.107 (french election).

Yes, looks like no changes in ECB policy . Not more or less of it, just the same. Lets see after press conference if there is some changes or something new coming up in the plans there.

and here we go for the ECB.

--> On the fundamental side

Probably the last uneventful ECB meeting of the year. Expecting an upbeat ECB from the macro front but very little in the monetary (QE and rates) side. ECB will hold with only a few days left to clear French elections and with solid macro numbers across all sectors starting to pick up pace.

Tracking the impact of positive macro outlooks in inflation and any soft hints during the questions about the end of QE. As soon as we clear France we will be entering in ECB expectations trade mode for the summer.

--> On the technical side

Euro at key levels after the strong numbers in the last few weeks and especially after clearing France 1st round. 1.096x is major level in play that will easily hold if ECB doesn't announce something unexpected in the QE/rates front. Double play for today that extends until the W close.

We have MT and ST swing in play 1.088x is the rain maker to the downside and with a mute/slightly dovish announcement will set the high of this M and Q. To the other side there is plenty overhead resistance above 1.097x. A hawkish ECB (not expected) will trigger a quick rally to 1.108x and unlock one more time 1.128x causing collateral damage to the MT & LT trend for the first time in nearly 6 years.

European Equities and Gold will be subdue and will only enter in play via a hawkish play to start forming a solid high for the Q with the upcoming M close. Any other scenario will just add more fuel to keep grinding the highs (in Equities) while set us in chop zone in Gold till further data.

--> For the actual flows (Euro only)

Simple flows expected. In order of probabilities.

Only a super hawkish (not expected at all) will unlock a fast direct leg 1.088x -> 1.128x.
A hawkish ECB for a direct play 1.088x -> 1.097x with extension to the mid of the 1.10xx handle.
Any other inline with expectations is soft zigzag to the highs with a 1.088x as only rain maker for the flow.

sisse

a monthly close above 1.0975ish, and that turns the 6 month net change chart green....

...and that was pretty much it.

An inline with ECB, less risk, same inflation, same macro outlooks, same on QE... last couple of questions and we are ready to go fro NY.

sisse