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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,561
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:13pm Apr 26, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Things are a lot clearer in terms of the markets scenarios in play. The 2 major (and i mean MAJOR!!!) movers and shakers come from the least probable scenarios: --> one is a double wreck in France with the extreme right and left passing to the 2nd round (neonazis vs neocommunist ... Basically a humiliation and the end of France). Euro non stop ride to parity for the summer. CAC40 a selloff -15% till second round. -> the second is the least probable is the extreme right l/left flopping and not passing to the 2nd round. Euro 1.12xz for the...
sisse, can u clarify this.

The lvls in EU you had for a scenarion of no radicals getting into second round = is that the same as if we clear both rounds and non of the radicals wins?
Because that would have to mean change of outlooks and so on to reach your lvls for mid term as suggested in the post = so basically killing our long awaited final mid term extension.

But on the other hand you write that we have cleared the risk part but the equation remains basically the same so no changes of outlooks for ST, MT. And also you are mentioning the choose your posion MT opening again in E/U.

So for me Im staying with all the same. Just got confused by your older post.

Thanks
  • #150,562
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:20pm Apr 26, 2017 1:20pm
Can someone help me understand how the market hedged the French election? I've heard people talk about unwinding of risk positions but don't really understand what form this takes.
  • #150,563
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:27pm Apr 26, 2017 1:27pm
maybe 111.53

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  • #150,564
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:53pm Apr 26, 2017 1:53pm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump...134109664.html

  1. Corporate tax rate of 15%: Such a rate would deliver on Trump's campaign promise; the current federal statutory rate is 35%.
  2. Allows pass-through rate for business owners: Instead of self-owned businesses being taxed at the personal income rate, business owners would have incomes from operations taxed at the 15% rate. So if you own your own business, income from that business would be taxed at the corporate rate. According to The Times, that could apply to the Trump Organization.

^^^Time to incorporate your trading business if you haven't already done so (assuming you make money)

  1. No border-adjustment tax: The tax on imports was favored by House GOP leaders such as Speaker Paul Ryan and Kevin Brady, the chair of the Ways and Means Committee. Mnuchin said the White House talked to Ryan and Brady but thought the tax did not "work in its current form."

^^^so much for "revenue neutral"

  1. A slight adjustment to individual tax rates: White House officials said there will be three tax brackets with rates of 35%, 25%, and 10%, down from the current 7 brackets and the code would be "simplified." Cohn told reporters that he did not have the exact incomes associated with the brackets.
  2. Double the standard individual tax deduction: This would allow individual filers to deduct their first $12,700 in income from their taxes and $25,400 for joint filers, as opposed to the current $6,350 for individuals and $12,700 for joint filers.

^^^who can complain?

  1. A one-time repatriation tax: This would allow companies to bring back money from overseas to the US with a slightly lower, one-time tax. The White House did not clarify the rate at which this money would be taxed. President George Bush enacted a repatriation tax at a 5.25% rate in 2004, but studies show the money brought back mostly went to stock buybacks and dividends rather than hiring workers.

^^^more stock buybacks keeps the bull market alive unless the Fed brings the noise - fat chance

  1. Eliminate the estate tax: This would eliminate a tax on assets being transferred via a will after someone dies.

^^^a holiday for the very rich

  1. A change in tax exemptions for the middle class: According to The Times, the plan will propose an increase in the standard deduction for individuals.

^^^hoorah

  1. Eliminate itemized tax deductions other than charitable donations and mortgage payments: Mnuchin said this provision would close "loopholes" and offset the decrease in base tax rate for high income Americans.

^^^ruh-roh....prolly a wash though with the std deduction increases, etc

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,565
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:06pm Apr 26, 2017 2:06pm
Trump 2020
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #150,566
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:12pm Apr 26, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting longshot_nl
maybe 111.53 {image}
or 111.73. i have to try them both.
  • #150,567
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:15pm Apr 26, 2017 2:15pm
Quoting The Fool
ruh-roh....
What are the chances that all of it passes except the deductions part? That sounds like partytime.
  • #150,568
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:20pm Apr 26, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Trump 2020
I would said S&P 2020 instead ...

No for real, there is plenty of carrots for the rich and large business, there are some small carrots for a small bracket of the middle class and there is a huge stick for the fiscal budget and the economy with only 1/4 of the proposal accepted, let alone the whole thing ...and that's without counting the political BS that is coming.

My reading, empty noise so far.

My bet is same machine gun approach we are already getting use with DT, in the next couple of days is NAFTA noise, then government shutdown more noise, next week is Obamacare again and later in the week NK again...by then tax cuts and etc will be buried in the sand until late in the summer.... basically kicking the can in the real details, overshooting out of rational sense in all policies to end up cutting 3/4 of it and only passing the 1/4 he and his pals really cares at the end...

We'll see.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,569
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:23pm Apr 26, 2017 2:23pm
@sisse,

Dont forget to add in a random tweet that the dollar is too strong
  • #150,570
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:28pm Apr 26, 2017 2:28pm
Quoting sisse
My bet is same machine gun approach we are already getting use with DT,
Art of the Dealio - ax for the moon and take what you can get by sueing everyone who gets in the way
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,571
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:32pm Apr 26, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
uj retraced the entire month +... Q1 close didnt stop it.. it is what it is.. pattern for 1.0801 did its norm minimal 111.14 thing. to remain valid it needs to0950 is important. so many use a different time as i do,, that one is the top of next h.. so it may conflict the sides of 0950
So your ride to 0801 is on??? Or little too early to say.
  • #150,572
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:52pm Apr 26, 2017 2:52pm
Quoting Pharm0r
@sisse, Dont forget to add in a random tweet that the dollar is too strong
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #150,573
  • Apr 26, 2017 3:20pm Apr 26, 2017 3:20pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} ... The lvls in EU you had for a scenarion of no radicals getting into second round = is that the same as if we clear both rounds and non of the radicals wins?
No.

No radicals in the 1st round would have short-circuit expectations sending a quick spike above 1.097x unlocking the never ending 1.128x one more time on air.

Quote
But on the other hand you write that we have cleared the risk part ...

Yes. The extreme risk off hedges for a surprise in the 1st round were cleared. The wider the odds of clearing the second round, the more people will start jumping on board (the less risk aversion hedges for the second round).

First round is cleared. Odds for clearing the 2nd round are very high but we wont be digesting 100% risk on until is officially cleared. It's a political decision not a market or economic forecast, therefore is nothing to see until the fact is cleared in 2 weeks.


Quote
but the equation remains basically the same so no changes of outlooks for ST, MT. And also you are mentioning the choose your posion MT opening again in E/U. So for me Im staying with all the same. Just got confused by your older post.

This is the chart we discussed in detail for the French election and I disagree with most on the call. This is before the fact.

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Here is the after the fact ST chart update that is now self explanatory why the levels i chose and later the update on the outlook on the confirmation of results.

Quoting sisse
...For that reason one and only update from France election results:

-> Changing short term outlook in Euro from neutral to soft buy until ECB is cleared.
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Have you updated your map now? Can you spot the new flip ?...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,574
  • Apr 26, 2017 3:42pm Apr 26, 2017 3:42pm
The Nafta rumour/report getting track and it seem a done deal 'any minute'. Important updates from the CAD* for the close and more importantly in CAD as both sides are getting aligned.

=> Changing short term outlook in CAD* from neutral to sell.

=> Changing short term outlook in CAD from soft sell to buy.

=> Changing mid and long term in CAD from sell and neutral to soft buy until further confirmation of the US entering in a race to the bottom in free trade with N.America.

I invite @goosebone too tells us how are we rolling in the Euro today in a few minutes....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,575
  • Apr 26, 2017 4:14pm Apr 26, 2017 4:14pm
Have you updated your map now? Can you spot the new flip ?...
1.086?
  • #150,576
  • Apr 26, 2017 4:21pm Apr 26, 2017 4:21pm
Quoting Fadhl
Have you updated your map now? Can you spot the new flip ?... 1.086?
I certainly hope so as ive entered long there
  • #150,577
  • Edited Apr 27, 2017 6:53am Apr 26, 2017 4:55pm | Edited Apr 27, 2017 6:53am
Quoting sisse
The Nafta rumour/report getting track and it seem a done deal 'any minute'. Important updates from the CAD* for the close and more importantly in CAD as both sides are getting aligned. => Changing short term outlook in CAD* from neutral to sell. => Changing short term outlook in CAD from soft sell to buy. => Changing mid and long term in CAD from sell and neutral to soft buy until further confirmation of the US entering in a race to the bottom in free trade with N.America. I invite @goosebone too...
Sorry I missed this. 1.090x was my no brainer close for today after the bounce off 1.085x but way after the fact now so moot.
I'll be watching ECB reaction to see what it tells us about how much more room above 1.090x there is if any (meaning above 950) . Overshoot goes higher and I'll reassess if I'm looking at it right. It's not calm waters at the moment so I want to be sure not to chart it as if it is.
Watch and wait mode for me til I get more clues. I got a checklist for this area looking at Monday close in this order:
1) close over 906 (check)
2) close under 86x (nope)
3) close back over 86x (n/a)
4) break 86x is go time short. Stops to be moved lower from 951 to lower high (if applicable) made on the 2nd close back over 86x but only once 820 Is broken. (n/a)

thats my plan for a short entry right now. Only one check on that long laundry list at the moment. My guess is they don't all get checked off and I don't enter short here. But....watch and wait.
  • #150,578
  • Apr 26, 2017 4:58pm Apr 26, 2017 4:58pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} giving it a try @ 7270 with tight stop
added some around 7295
UK100 D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #150,579
  • Apr 26, 2017 5:49pm Apr 26, 2017 5:49pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Have you updated your map now? Can you spot the new flip ?... sisse
.082x? I only say this as you indicated the last time I asked how a top could be the flip was a million dollar question. Since .082x was our top and it became support now on this move, would it not be a flip if a full body closed under it? It's my best answer.
  • #150,580
  • Apr 26, 2017 6:11pm Apr 26, 2017 6:11pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} So your ride to 0801 is on??? Or little too early to say.
that was the plan
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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