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  • #150,521
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:32am Apr 26, 2017 10:32am
Quoting PayTheLimit
who is going to pay for this tax cut I wonder? has that been mentioned, or suggested?
As I understand it the original framework hinged, in large part, on freeing up and using funds currently earmarked for Obamacare subsidies via repeal. Since that didn't happen yet and may not, I believe the "growth takes care of it" mantra is being recycled. Which works. When it works. Repatriation will put a short term drop in that bucket. Looks like border tax has no wings.
  • #150,522
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:39am Apr 26, 2017 10:39am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Original framework hinged on freeing up and using funds currently earmarked for Obamacare subsidies via repeal...
That's why I am a bit surprised we're getting into tax reform today. It's no slam dunk and the remaining potential offsets are a little uninspiring (as you posted). Seems kinda risky for DT if it isn't received well. I think, though, this is really the beginning of a long negotiation - so... much compromise is to be expected bf anything passes.
  • #150,523
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:45am Apr 26, 2017 10:45am
Quoting ashenv
{quote} That's why I am a bit surprised we're getting into tax reform today. It's no slam dunk and the remaining potential offsets are a little uninspiring (as you posted). Seems kinda risky for DT if it isn't received well. I think, though, this is really the beginning of a long negotiation - so... much compromise is to be expected bf anything passes.
Agree. I have never been able to fathom why these guys take on healthcare day 1. Obama made that mistake, now Trump, even HRC did a faceplant into it when she was married to the white house. At least Trump has the excuse of needing it to make the rest work. But he didn't get it. So now the rest is, like you say, no slam dunk. Presidenting is hard.
  • #150,524
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:47am Apr 26, 2017 10:47am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} As I understand it the original framework hinged, in large part, on freeing up and using funds currently earmarked for Obamacare subsidies via repeal. Since that didn't happen yet and may not, I believe the "growth takes care of it" mantra is being recycled. Which works. When it works. Repatriation will put a short term drop in that bucket. Looks like border tax has no wings.
sounds pretty thin...but it always is I guess...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #150,525
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:49am Apr 26, 2017 10:49am
been keeping an eye on 9965 in the swiss all week, close above it might produce a better bounce..still looking for shorts against 1.0025/30
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #150,526
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:49am Apr 26, 2017 10:49am
uj retraced the entire month +... Q1 close didnt stop it.. it is what it is.. pattern for 1.0801 did its norm minimal 111.14 thing. to remain valid it needs to stay below 112.20.. meanwhile some pull to 1.1335/36 has its vote. just in case the 113.35 pull works. i have a pending with a tight stop scheduled for 112.17, for similar reasons as eu yesterday. we can debate it after.. its posted now.. 0950 is important. so many use a different time as i do,, that one is the top of next h.. so it may conflict the sides of 0950
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,527
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:50am Apr 26, 2017 10:50am
White House readies order on withdrawing from NAFTA!
Two sources to pay tax cut: Canada and Mexico! Next steps are coming (i.e., tax war protection (Nato, Japan, Middle-east, South-Korea...))
  • #150,528
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:52am Apr 26, 2017 10:52am
Quoting Fadhl
White House readies order on withdrawing from NAFTA! Two sources to pay tax cut: Canada and Mexico! Next steps are coming (i.e., tax war protection (Nato, Japan, Middle-east, South-Korea...))
Next step after that is start a war and plunder another countries wealth.
  • #150,529
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:56am Apr 26, 2017 10:56am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA
good one.. i didnt recall it was in the movie
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,530
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:57am Apr 26, 2017 10:57am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Agree. I have never been able to fathom why these guys take on healthcare day 1.
Lol, that maybe why Ryan (and to a certain extent Bannon) have been on the rack since it didn't work out. I think DT is learning quickly that you have to build more consensus in Congress since there are so many individual agendas therein. Some of the crap he rightly criticized regarding DC politics during the campaign didn't go away when he was elected.
  • #150,531
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:57am Apr 26, 2017 10:57am
Quoting gatorinla
uj 111.50 is important to me.. last h closed above. if still above on the 1/2h close (15 min from now). i will close 3/4 of my short and manage.. 112.20 i will have to rethink. the usdx going higher seems to be helping atm.. it often does not help uj so much.. {image}
uj [email protected] stop@ BE.
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #150,532
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:59am Apr 26, 2017 10:59am
Quoting Fadhl
White House readies order on withdrawing from NAFTA! Two sources to pay tax cut: Canada and Mexico! Next steps are coming (i.e., tax war protection (Nato, Japan, Middle-east, South-Korea...))
Rustbelt vs. Cornbelt. Choose your poison. Got a few August puts on corn. Guess I already chose mine.
  • #150,533
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:03am Apr 26, 2017 11:03am
UJ point of interest 111.91 and 112.24.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #150,534
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:10am Apr 26, 2017 11:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} good one.. i didnt recall it was in the movie
Gator, did you close your 0830 long Uj. What price.
  • #150,535
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:13am Apr 26, 2017 11:13am
Quoting gatorinla
uj retraced the entire month +... Q1 close didnt stop it.. it is what it is.. pattern for 1.0801 did its norm minimal 111.14 thing. to remain valid it needs to stay below 112.20.. meanwhile some pull to 1.1335/36 has its vote. just in case the 113.35 pull works. i have a pending with a tight stop scheduled for 112.17, for similar reasons as eu yesterday. we can debate it after.. its posted now.. 0950 is important. so many use a different time as i do,, that one is the top of next h.. so it may conflict the sides of 0950
uj closed day 1 above last Q close. next? its free to wait.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,536
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:17am Apr 26, 2017 11:17am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Rustbelt vs. Cornbelt. Choose your poison. Got a few August puts on corn. Guess I already chose mine.
Do you think we can choose?
Really it smells very bad. Early hot summer is knocking the door! It's scary, the Whitehouse becomes a blackhouse (black box)
  • #150,537
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:26am Apr 26, 2017 11:26am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Do you think we can choose? Really it smells very bad. Early hot summer is knocking the door! It's scary, the Whitehouse becomes a blackhouse (black box)
Yeah who knows. One possibility during "negotiations" on it all is Mexico making good on their threat to buy all that corn they buy from US (thats a lot) instead from Brazil or somewhere else.
Sounds like a lot of homeless US corn. And sadly, a few homeless corn farmers. Like i said, who knows?
  • #150,538
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:32am Apr 26, 2017 11:32am
Europe going home, with a lot of noise coming from the US from the Tax front leaks to infrastructure spending, cross border taxes, NAFTA break down and etc. Some are major game changers, some others are political posturing, others are just random noise. Whatever the case "where there is smoke there is fire"

We might be ready to witness the US entering in uncharted waters in its history. It looks ready to shoot itself more than in the foot and commit economic suicide for the MT and LT...we'll see in a few...

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} ... How do you see the market reaction to such protectionism decisions in the ST and MT? ...
I have been very vocal and clear about my positions about free markets and free trade since the day one I posted here. Just my profile photo will tell you exactly what I think.

Protectionism, less free markets, less free trade, artificial subsidies, border taxes, barrier for free flow of investment, artificial mechanism to pump the economy via monetary (currency manipulation) or fiscal via distorting political or national preferences based on BS instead of efficiency, competition and free markets are ALWAYS bad and it always end up in tears despite some minor very short term myopic gains for some very specific business.

Even worst for a country like the US that became a power house promoting and implementing these core values and now is flirting to break all its core principles. Its will be an economic, political, social and historical mistake.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,539
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:33am Apr 26, 2017 11:33am
Fwiw, I'm going to cool it on a potential UJ short for now even though the current levels are enticing. The move back up from 108.1 happened really fast. Some of the risk that helped fuel the drop has faded a bit (for now).
  • #150,540
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:41am Apr 26, 2017 11:41am
stop out
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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