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AUD/USD

  • #101,301
  • Apr 25, 2017 9:00pm Apr 25, 2017 9:00pm
AUD @.7515

Signs of a weak economy coming through and these consumer confident surveys have proven to be a crock..

Having said that we are relying on the ABS stats dept here so depends which way the wind blows for their dartboard.

Sydney the economic power house of Australia is showing visual signs of slowing with people's purse strings tightening .

Thats the best "barometer" of them all for fundamental trading.

So we have seen the banks hike interest rates for mortgagees in other words gouging in a benign market.

RBA wont be raising interest rates anytime soon.

Bears hibernate for winter ? Not in Australia they wont ..

Prob the trade is Short AUD/NZD ..

Happy hunting

P.S. Just to add that Inflation numbers were mainly influenced by Fuel and health costs.
Oil isnt going to stage a major uptrend anytime soon and Health costs were Pivate health insurance which many Australians are considering pulling out of .
These two items shudnt reflect in next qtr inflation as I think both are 1 off's
  • #101,302
  • Apr 25, 2017 9:30pm Apr 25, 2017 9:30pm
They moved the price on news. Perfection. Look at the weak buyers they took out.
Nothing we couldve done. Now on to london or us sesssion. Dont like trading into 75c BUT there are weak buyers look for a sell from CPI supply. So far looking good.
  • #101,303
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:47pm Apr 25, 2017 11:47pm
Anyone else loving this??
7530-7550 zone looking great for a sell so far. London move hopefully. Still a few hours but you could quite happiy have your SL 75570 and target 75c. A lot of confirmation to go though. Lets see how next 3 hrs go.
  • #101,304
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:21am Apr 26, 2017 1:21am
UPDATE:
If this can come up from here on weakness to around 7535 BEAUTIFUL. There will then be weak holders below.
How much can i get on?? Lol
TARGET: 7490
  • #101,305
  • Apr 26, 2017 2:32am Apr 26, 2017 2:32am
something I might consider should it transpire....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #101,306
  • Apr 26, 2017 10:30am Apr 26, 2017 10:30am
Quoting PayTheLimit
something I might consider should it transpire.... {image}

This trade setup looks good atm. Awaiting for the PA to show signs of an impending correction to .7540 region or higher.
  • #101,307
  • Apr 26, 2017 11:45pm Apr 26, 2017 11:45pm
Ignore the iron ore/AUD correlation at your peril
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-as...-idUSKBN16E0ZL
  • #101,308
  • Apr 27, 2017 12:14am Apr 27, 2017 12:14am
WA, Australia's jewel in the crown for being the state behind the biggest resources boom ever has come to it knees.

Now comes the aftermath

http://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...984a883774f3bb

Of course the ABS don't tell you this stat and the leader of the opposition is going on about housing prices out of control and being rigged.

Well that maybe isolated cases like Sydney but reality is the rest of the country is suffering .

Interest rates will be going down not up and the AUD is in for a tanking as the overspill sweeps the country.

Australians are in love with real estate, so much so they have investment properties which are negatively geared, a system known when the rental income doesnt meet the interest payments you can get a tax credit so its easy money provided the property price goes up in value .

When it turns like it has in WA its going to be a disaster and unlike some countries whereby you hand the key in and walk away, in Australia you are stuck with the debt when the bank sells your house that's a double whammy.
  • #101,309
  • Apr 27, 2017 12:43am Apr 27, 2017 12:43am
Quoting lasty
WA, Australia's jewel in the crown for being the state behind the biggest resources boom ever has come to it knees. Now comes the aftermath http://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...984a883774f3bb Of course the ABS don't tell you this stat and the leader of the opposition is going on about housing prices out of control and being rigged. Well that maybe isolated cases like Sydney but reality is the rest of the country is suffering...
Hi guys,

Rates will not go down any further due to funding cost increasing on a global level. WA has been in a pickle for quiet some time. AUD will start tanking in Q3.
In terms of DEBT every country is in DEBT.

What people fail to understand in the forex world is that currency is just bought not just based on charts or news but the NEED. When companies who trade in Australia and require AUD to trade guess what they purchase AUD as its the only currency that can be used to buy and sell goods and also pay wages.


Where Australia benefits vs the whole world is our resources... they may go down further but there is always a need for it believe it or not.
  • #101,310
  • Apr 27, 2017 1:17am Apr 27, 2017 1:17am
Quoting lasty
and unlike some countries whereby you hand the key in and walk away, in Australia you are stuck with the debt when the bank sells your house that's a double whammy.
What about Bankruptcy?
If house prices fall and people lose their jobs and are unable to pay their mortgage doesn't the bank force the owner to become bankrupt so that it can sell his/her other assets to recover the debt?
  • #101,311
  • Apr 27, 2017 3:11am Apr 27, 2017 3:11am
Kangeroo pretty bearish my thoughts are its gunning at 0.7430 and 0.7372
  • #101,312
  • Apr 27, 2017 10:38pm Apr 27, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} What about Bankruptcy? If house prices fall and people lose their jobs and are unable to pay their mortgage doesn't the bank force the owner to become bankrupt so that it can sell his/her other assets to recover the debt?
Absolutely they will.

Im sure this is happening in WA as we speak
  • #101,313
  • Apr 27, 2017 11:35pm Apr 27, 2017 11:35pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...28-gvuezo.html

Is it becoming contagious?.. early signs ... but when panic sets in the avalanche will happen ...

And to throw fuel on the fire the banks are raising interest rates
  • #101,314
  • Apr 28, 2017 9:00am Apr 28, 2017 9:00am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Oops, I did it again! Check it out. The buying began almost exactly where I posted how bad my long call was. But the LOL is on the movers as I was still holding my longs. Cashed them out on the upswing, hahahaha to the MM's scare-me-out attempt. So now I am going short. Or am I? {image}
Ok, so far so good. I am going to lock in stop loss at break even now before any more news. Everything looks good for a steady decline in AUDUSD. The bears are in charge. Also looking at EURAUD for possible trade. It is at breakpoint so would prefer long on breakout but can also go short on bounce.

The movers are definitely shorting Aussie straight away, also CAD and NZD being pushed down. EUR and GBP going in proper form against a declining USD Index.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #101,315
  • Apr 28, 2017 11:01am Apr 28, 2017 11:01am
AUDUSD
Pattern : Head and Shoulders

Buy Stop -> 0.74912
Stop Loss : 0.74464
Take Profit : 0.75539

https://t.me/FxClassic
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  • #101,316
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:25pm Apr 28, 2017 1:25pm
Wobbly $, N.Korea risk talk, inviting technicals - a good enough mix to give AU a nice quick push up. Let's see if it can break y's high and get to 0.75...
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mind over matter
  • #101,317
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:36pm Apr 28, 2017 1:36pm
Quoting kosmo
Wobbly $, N.Korea risk talk, inviting technicals - a good enough mix to give AU a nice quick push up. Let's see if it can break y's high and get to 0.75... {image}
would love it if it closed above 0.75, 0.7490 would do, aiming for a little higher for me
Attached Image
  • #101,318
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:35pm Apr 28, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} would love it if it closed above 0.75, 0.7490 would do, aiming for a little higher for me {image}
Let's not forget it's Friday LOL. I'm done. Hope you get what you came for, too.
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mind over matter
  • #101,319
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:36pm Apr 28, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting kosmo
{quote} Let's not forget it's Friday LOL. I'm done. Hope you get what you came for, too. {image}
im long term, perhaps seeing 0.765x and not ruling out highs above 0.78
  • #101,320
  • Apr 30, 2017 10:25am Apr 30, 2017 10:25am
This is my Aussie forecast for the upcoming week. The close below the big psychological number should keep the current downtrend intact and we should see more downside pressure. Looking for a retest of 0.7400 and even possible a retest of 0.7350.

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Regards,
1GoodTrade
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