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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #28,141
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:37pm Apr 25, 2017 12:37pm
long dj30
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  • #28,142
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:45pm Apr 25, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting Ockham
{quote} Hi Peter, just my 2 cents about your entries, ...
Hi Ockham
Thank you for your elaborate answer, it is very helpful!
Also thanks for not only pointing out the mistakes, but also confirming the good entry. Means there's still hope for me
I am working on the trading plan!
Grtz Peter
  • #28,143
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:57pm Apr 25, 2017 1:57pm
stopped -14
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  • #28,144
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:03pm Apr 25, 2017 2:03pm
-14
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  • #28,145
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:12pm Apr 25, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting Coreg2004
Peter I was aware about everything you mentionend in your post. I try to convey to you only one point. If you align your entry with higher time frame you will be more successful. By my standards you were not wrong not even once, but couldn't withstand the size of the stop loss. During the day you will have almost always 3-4 opportunities to take the trade closer to support/resistance or supply/demand levels so be patient. Good luck with trading ahead of you.
Thanks Coreg2004 that's good advice. I am really working on patience.
It seems like such an easy task, but controlling emotions and having patience has been a real challenge for me.
I am improving though. I will continue to work on it
Grtz Peter
  • #28,146
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:23pm Apr 25, 2017 2:23pm
Hello Traders, Here is the live stream. The focus was on strength and weakness as well as a regular nuts and bolts session. Although we did not take any active trades there were great questions and we dove deeper into some of the issues with strength and weakness. Check out the session and remember to like and subscribe if the session has value to you.

https://youtu.be/49_G1BC4aFs
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #28,147
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:31pm Apr 25, 2017 2:31pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Here is the live stream. The focus was on strength and weakness as well as a regular nuts and bolts session. Although we did not take any active trades there were great questions and we dove deeper into some of the issues with strength and weakness. Check out the session and remember to like and subscribe if the session has value to you. https://youtu.be/49_G1BC4aFs
May I ask for the live stream link? Tq
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #28,148
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:32pm Apr 25, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Here is the live stream. The focus was on strength and weakness as well as a regular nuts and bolts session. Although we did not take any active trades there were great questions and we dove deeper into some of the issues with strength and weakness. Check out the session and remember to like and subscribe if the session has value to you. https://youtu.be/49_G1BC4aFs
sorry got it tq2 thanks
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #28,149
  • Edited 3:58pm Apr 25, 2017 2:55pm | Edited 3:58pm
EURUSD 233 tick chart
Expectation is a NSH.
Nice rotation candle at 78.6% retrace.
SL below structure, TP at 1:1 harmonic
Let's see..
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EDIT:
Have to go to sleep, so moved SL to below 61.8 retracement, at -1.6 pip loss
Take profit just below 1.0950
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EDIT:
SL hit. -1.6 pips

Lesson learned: Next time don't trade at this hour, PA too slow
  • #28,150
  • Apr 25, 2017 4:14pm Apr 25, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting Velikov
-14 {image}
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  • #28,151
  • Apr 25, 2017 8:38pm Apr 25, 2017 8:38pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Here is the live stream. The focus was on strength and weakness as well as a regular nuts and bolts session. Although we did not take any active trades there were great questions and we dove deeper into some of the issues with strength and weakness. Check out the session and remember to like and subscribe if the session has value to you. https://youtu.be/49_G1BC4aFs
Thanks again Mr Pip for the live session last night. Will go through the session again later today to listen to your explanation on accumulation and distribution. Very very informative session indeed!
  • #28,152
  • Apr 25, 2017 9:14pm Apr 25, 2017 9:14pm
Quoting lithium1
{quote} {image} Dear Kelvinyun, After looking into your trade results and strategy in details. I think you need to becareful with it. I suggest you trade at least 100 trades with small money to test out before you get serious with it. Majority of your winners are only 1~2pips. If the next trade is a loser, it will wipe out majority of your winnings, and 1 more loser will put you in red already. With this kind of strategy you need to maintain >80% win rate just to stay positive. Take care mate.
Yes you are right.

As mentioned in subsequent post, it's the trade management that's problematic.

My initial plan was "Once the trade is profitable by 12 pips, shift stoploss to breakeven+2pips., hoping to capitalize on more pips.

That's what got me pissed. Most of the trades can hit a 12 pip profit, but ended up in breakeven. On average the success rate is above 80%. While it's still profitable, and safer, however too much money is left on the table.

For the remainder of this week, as advised by a senior trader, i will experiment with:
0.1 lotsize
12 pip stoploss
10 pip take profit
BE+1 pip after profit at least 7 pip

By using a 70% success rate (expectations!!) as a base scenario, possibly need a lot of experimentation on trade management.
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  • #28,153
  • Apr 25, 2017 10:47pm Apr 25, 2017 10:47pm
Quoting kelvinyun
{quote} Yes you are right. As mentioned in subsequent post, it's the trade management that's problematic. My initial plan was "Once the trade is profitable by 12 pips, shift stoploss to breakeven+2pips., hoping to capitalize on more pips. That's what got me pissed. Most of the trades can hit a 12 pip profit, but ended up in breakeven. On average the success rate is above 80%. While it's still profitable, and safer, however too much money is left on the table. For the remainder of this week, as advised by a senior trader, i will experiment with:...
Hi kelvinyun, interesting that you post this tanks, i have the same conclusion as you when you set a be @xtick PA come back too many times to hit the be point, why ? because it is the beginning of this new movement and price need some impulsion to leave this zone.
How to deal with this ? first like mr.Pip does, if moves SL to be only when price re test the NSH/NSL, but i think this does not suit for every trader psychology as mine (at this time,will see later) because i just start with futures with a small account and need to grow this account first before risking 30-40 ticks/trade.
So what solution we have ? if you saw the live last night (for us) mr.Pip confirm that achieving 10-20 pips/ticks by day on long term will make us very profitable, if you agree with this i think there is 2 interesting solutions,
1- strategy same on your picture above SL around 10 and tp around 10, with the entries we could found with this system it will be very possible to reach the TP at leat 80% of the time but you will ever miss the train but you also don't let price the time to go back to SL most of the time.
2- i will use this strategy on really strong set up on C entries enter with 2 times your usual lots with the same SL, always around -10 and the first lot will TP @+10 and the second when the first TP the SL will not move or just move to reduce the risk according to bar /bar -8,-6 so it will be a free trade and you will try to catch the train.

So may be a mix 80-20 of this 2 strategy could be a good deal, but at least only with the first one you mentioned above and being patient will give you at least your 2 entries for your daily +20 pips until our account will big enough to use mr.Pip trade management. I think to move to be on small range/TP even +1 will kill the strategy, need to be confident on our entries and let price go to tp.
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #28,154
  • Edited Apr 26, 2017 12:45am Apr 25, 2017 11:42pm | Edited Apr 26, 2017 12:45am
Kelvin, I think the 15 risk, 10 reward might work.

But problem with limit orders is you have to let go the bar to bar rotation analysis. I think this is important on Mr Pip's method.

And fixing the risk pips and reward pips also let go the dynamic nature of the market. Mr pip place stop loss based on structure, and it's dynamic. So probably you will need to periodically adjust your risk pips and reward pips.
  • #28,155
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:37am Apr 26, 2017 12:37am
6J missed this beautiful rotation, i set an alert on the trend line but i did not hear the alert !! Next ^^
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There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #28,156
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:45am Apr 26, 2017 12:45am
Quoting Ockham
6J missed this beautiful rotation, i set an alert on the trend line but i did not hear the alert !! Next ^^ {image}
That's a nice setup and rotation!
  • #28,157
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:01am Apr 26, 2017 1:01am
Quoting kelvinyun
{quote} Yes you are right. As mentioned in subsequent post, it's the trade management that's problematic. My initial plan was "Once the trade is profitable by 12 pips, shift stoploss to breakeven+2pips., hoping to capitalize on more pips. That's what got me pissed. Most of the trades can hit a 12 pip profit, but ended up in breakeven. On average the success rate is above 80%. While it's still profitable, and safer, however too much money is left on the table. For the remainder of this week, as advised by a senior trader, i will experiment with:...
Kelvin, I don't really understand you table. Its showing 7 winners 1 looser. Its not 70% success rate. Its almost 90% winning rate. Am I understand it correctly?
  • #28,158
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:13am Apr 26, 2017 1:13am
Quoting Ockham
{quote} Hi kelvinyun, interesting that you post this tanks, i have the same conclusion as you when you set a be @xtick PA come back too many times to hit the be point, why ? because it is the beginning of this new movement and price need some impulsion to leave this zone. How to deal with this ? first like mr.Pip does, if moves SL to be only when price re test the NSH/NSL, but i think this does not suit for every trader psychology as mine (at this time,will see later) because i just start with futures with a small account and need to grow this account...
@ lithium - yes i strongly agree that bar-by-bar is very very important for good entries. One caveat, you need to set an alarm, and be present in front of the PC when price reach your desired level. Unfortunately I do not have the luxury of doing that due to having a full time job; as well as my own inability to control emotions while trading - tend to enter early for "fear of missing out the trade"! Acknowledging my own weakness, i thus resorted to using EA for trade management.

@ Ockham - Strategy 2 is exactly what i did when i do manual trading. However, as explained above, my emotions suckz. Difficult to configure an EA to do something like that, so have to resort to Strategy 1. OK, i will try on 20 trades to see if 10/12 works.
  • #28,159
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:14am Apr 26, 2017 1:14am
6J more risky because we arriving on big support area, see 1500 tick charts but also good rotation, be plan at re test with agressive sl.
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There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #28,160
  • Apr 26, 2017 1:18am Apr 26, 2017 1:18am
Long usd/jpy
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