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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,441
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:58pm Apr 25, 2017 12:58pm
Quoting Deitreider
Does the ST EU map now need renewing or is it too soon?
Whats your view? what do you think?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,442
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:30pm Apr 25, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Whats your view? what do you think? sisse
Looking at the Weekly there are lots of Swing Highs and thus Resistance Zones I can see, but I chose the most recent (going by the thinking that the more recent the more relevant). Also bent Zone drawing rules a little by choosing the lower side of the R Zone from a previous Weeks Close to make the Zone more narrow. Lower I drew a Support Zone where the last Swing Low was made. This is my simplistic rookie view.
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  • #150,443
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:31pm Apr 25, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its challenging now.. if it held.. 089x is a further st point.. with others above.. london went home.. uj is near 111.14, equities may be in line with uj.. {image}
So if DT's plan doesnt come out as expected or it gets a prominent flop would that mean risk on. Gold up dollar down and usdyen down as well and vice versa if inline??
  • #150,444
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:34pm Apr 25, 2017 1:34pm
minimal 111.14 reached. some R maybe decent 111.49/62 area..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,445
  • Edited 1:59pm Apr 25, 2017 1:47pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} So if DT's plan doesnt come out as expected or it gets a prominent flop would that mean risk on. Gold up dollar down and usdyen down as well and vice versa if inline??
eu 1.13 and uj 111.14 are built b4 trump. 111.14 is minimal i was in line for. the uj is/was pointing to 111.14. and has done that. it's time to recalibrate. the uj has a path for a LL as long as below 112.2.. the eu has sights on 1.131x as long as above 1.034. asteroids hitting earth, will curve this view.. slow it, speed it. or destroy it. many things can change it.. i doubt it will be anything small to change trajectory.

the eu going to 1.13 does not affect the usdx 101.52 norm.. its why i closed my eu long after taken it after 1.0585 (remember i was eu short till 0585).. the usdx can still push eu lower where i can long it. i fu by not holding the long. that long and 1.13 was based b4 election results long ago
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,446
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:32pm Apr 25, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} So if DT's plan doesnt come out as expected or it gets a prominent flop would that mean risk on. Gold up dollar down and usdyen down as well and vice versa if inline??
not trading gold.. but here..https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...36#post9757136
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,447
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:46pm Apr 25, 2017 2:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
.....the eu has sights on 1.131x as long as above 1.034. asteroids hitting earth, will curve this view.. slow it, speed it. or destroy it. many things can change it.. i doubt it will be anything small to change trajectory. the eu going to 1.13 does not...o
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not trading gold..
hmmm not really sure about that. Watch-out you are underestimating DT nuke tomorrow on inflation via his fiscal announcements. French election chapter 1 is over and that was the only elephant in the room in the Euro* side via risk but everything else is exactly the same since the beginning of the year.

Nothing has changed not even in the Euro* side for the mid term until we completely clear elections with official results in a couple of weeks (latest market update has already discounted clearing French election by 80% as per today latest update on London close ).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,448
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:50pm Apr 25, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not trading gold.. but here..https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...36#post9757136 {image}
i also dont trade gold, was just trying to get a feeler of diff scenarios based on tomorrow announcement. U closed your uj buy from 108.30
  • #150,449
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:02pm Apr 25, 2017 3:02pm
we have been disucssing euro relief rally in anticipation for election outcome so reducing the risk on ST/MT trades was a no brainer play before weekend.

now that risk as Sisse said is almost cleared , back to the basics for euro* via ECB outlook and USD via DT tax plans and hikes for the rest of the year .

in a previous discussion with Sisse we argued whether the rally towards 1.10xx would come first or the capitulation under 1.050x ...now is clear what outcome panned out so based on that I post this quick chart if I am willing to play the next ST and MT leg then timing is now .

overall the sentiment in euro* is shifting so one is to trade it accordingly tweaking maps for the ST/MT and LT.

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Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,450
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:20pm Apr 25, 2017 3:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} hmmm not really sure about that. Watch-out you are underestimating DT nuke tomorrow on inflation via his fiscal announcements. French election chapter 1 is over and that was the only elephant in the room in the Euro* side via risk but everything else is exactly the same since the beginning of the year. Nothing has changed not even in the Euro* side for the mid term until we completely clear elections with official results in a couple of weeks (latest market update has already discounted...
i am not estimating over or under. i just can't predict what he will say, tweet or nuke. i dont have a large range in the s/l. i could wait for confirmation about things. but by that time the entry increases the s/l to a point not worthy of the R/R. so with the chart being in my buy/sell range. i act or not. many times if i know some news is coming. i may close. but there is no way to know the action or reaction ahead. sometimes we are able to get a decent entry even if it turns out to be wrong. a pump b4 prices in a lot of rumor. a false rumor pumped is a good lay with stop range more limited on the s/l side.

agree the charts haven't shown any real change out of scope. you and i both wanted to buy eu after 1.0585. yours a little deeper 1.0540ish. i came to agree on deeper as well based on usdx. although my original minimum was 0585 (0585/0340). i bought it but closed it because of the usdx 101.52.. 101.52 is where i look to sell usd in that cycle. i am usdx bearish to 97.x or 96.x handles. but i see a better than 75% shot at 101.52 b4.. itsthe reason i dont trust eu rise as much as most. 1.13 is my target on eu.. i just will miss it on my account. unless usdx 101.52 gives the green light.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,451
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:29pm Apr 25, 2017 3:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am not estimating over or under. i just can't predict what he will say, tweet or nuke. i dont have a large range in the s/l. i could wait for confirmation about things. but by that time the entry increases the s/l to a point not worthy of the R/R. so with the chart being in my buy/sell range. i act or not. many times if i know some news is coming. i may close. but there is no way to know the action or reaction ahead. sometimes we are able to get a decent entry even if it turns out to be wrong. a pump b4 prices in a lot of rumor. a false...
usdx large TF close under 98.0x handle would invalidate your 101.5x norm ?!!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,452
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:31pm Apr 25, 2017 3:31pm
Potential ST short for sp 500
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It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #150,453
  • Edited 3:43pm Apr 25, 2017 3:32pm | Edited 3:43pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} usdx large TF close under 98.0x handle would invalidate your 101.5x norm ?!!
not in my book.. only reaching the target will eliminate the bounce.. this usually done in a news release with capitulation or the odds remain in favor. the strongest bounces usually occur near the target (risk) so a entry near inline with a bounce has great potential comparable to downside.

sure france leaving the eu probably would end eurodollar. or at least most think this.. i am one who dont give the eurozone a shot at survival.. the question is when.. so atm i want to long the eu when usdx reaches 101.52.. i also want to short eu sometime after 1.13.. between those.. lots of opportunity either way. some good opportunity/ some bad opportunity.

opinions about this or that cannot be measured except in numbers. progress is universally judged by numbers. one cannot say with any measurement of proof its bullish or bearish w/o a start end and finish.. numbers separate fact from myth..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,454
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:37pm Apr 25, 2017 3:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not in my book.. only reaching the target will eliminate the bounce.. this usually done in a news release with capitulation or the odds remain in favor. the strongest bounces usually occur near the target (risk) so a entry near inline with a bounce has great potential comparable to downside.
97.xx and 96.xx usdx align with 1.13/14 euro so if you're waiting for 101.5x norm you should be looking for shorts around 1.09x/1.10x euro where you place your stops in that case ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,455
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:47pm Apr 25, 2017 3:47pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} 97.xx and 96.xx usdx align with 1.13/14 euro so if you're waiting for 101.5x norm you should be looking for shorts around 1.09x/1.10x euro where you place your stops in that case ?
i dont know yet.. st charts are built in the future.. i already took a short and posted
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,456
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:49pm Apr 25, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not in my book.. only reaching the target will eliminate the bounce.. this usually done in a news release with capitulation or the odds remain in favor. the strongest bounces usually occur near the target (risk) so a entry near inline with a bounce has great potential comparable to downside. sure france leaving the eu probably would end eurodollar. or at least most think this.. i am one who dont give the eurozone a shot at survival.. the question is when.. so atm i want to long the eu when usdx reaches 101.52.. i also want to short eu sometime...
I see you edited the post so basically you are playing numbers in between 1.03/1.13 with norm calculations , would u mind posting some sell levels with higher odds for euro to turn bearish when touched !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,457
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:52pm Apr 25, 2017 3:52pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} I see you edited the post so basically you are playing numbers in between 1.03/1.13 with norm calculations , would u mind posting some sell levels with higher odds for euro to turn bearish when touched !
i added to it..
atm 0948 was a spot on radar a few h ago.. but 0932 has to be closed below.. atm ny is trying. i could have waited for that close below. but my stop at that point was would be so much widder.. i just needed a few pips at 0948.. below 0932 adds 12 more. making my pipage for a stop 3x greater..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,458
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:53pm Apr 25, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont know yet.. st charts are built in the future.. i already took a short and posted
yeah I saw the entry u posted , so for the next entry you need st charts to be built. gotcha.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i added to it.. atm 0948 was a spot on radar a few h ago.. but 0932 had to be closed below.. atm ny is trying
what is your take on 1.097x , you should have that one on your radar even for larger swings
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,459
  • Apr 25, 2017 4:01pm Apr 25, 2017 4:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i added to it.. atm 0948 was a spot on radar a few h ago.. but 0932 has to be closed below.. atm ny is trying. i could have waited for that close below. but my stop at that point was would be so much widder.. i just needed a few pips at 0948.. below 0932 adds 12 more. making my pipage for a stop 3x greater..
do u force entries and exits or wait for targets to be hits , with small risk u take odds of being stopped is higher than reaching the full swing potential .
I can be wrong though , I have litlle knowledge about your norms and scalping triggers.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,460
  • Apr 25, 2017 4:03pm Apr 25, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the range of post L close. above/below close level, is the range. range size place +- a cross of the close level. is can be a r/s. i dont have it in a set of rules. i just use it to point to norm or a 50% retrace. lets keep it simple.
Gator, so Lx1 is the range from the London close to NY close ?
And Lx2 is this range x 2 added or substracted from the NY close?
Thanks
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