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5 years and still no strategy

  • #481
  • Apr 25, 2017 9:59am Apr 25, 2017 9:59am
man, you see this thread is full of idiots who simply ignore your summary of the price movement.

i have to thumb up this!

Quoting Calculus
Here's a strategy for you to all build a profitable trading plan - Dramatic price movements tend to unfold from price structures that minimise participation.
  • #482
  • Apr 25, 2017 10:15am Apr 25, 2017 10:15am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Calculus, So, the shake out that happens prior to a major move? Could you please elaborate more? "(hint, the vast majority of them are not nearly as good as everyone likes to make out)" I am curious as to why it is the case. I mean funds are hiring Quants with PhD's-Literally rocket scientists at their beck and call who can crunch numbers across n number of financial instruments. So, what is the distinguishing characteristic that a retail trader should have that enables him to go toe to toe with these guys? Thanks
pull a Quant from his chair and have him trade retail like the rest of us if you want to go "toe to toe" with him.
otherwise, i don't think we're fighting against the funds/ market, most retail trades never even see the daylight at the liquidity provider, retail trades end up in the broker's book, not the broker's brokers' book. so if the funds don't see our trades or our stops, they don't even know we exist. why would we fight them when they are not fighting us? we gotta succumb to the market's movements.

wishing to win carries no weight in whether trades make money or not.. the most that wishing to win will get us, is to help us get back up when we're beat down and prevent us from giving up. which I think is the distinguishing characteristic, not giving up.

so to the OP, asking if "Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it? "
You'll realize that if you really wanted something bad enough, you would not give up just because someone told you to leave it...
  • #483
  • Apr 25, 2017 10:20am Apr 25, 2017 10:20am
Quoting charvo
man, you see this thread is full of idiots who simply ignore your summary of the price movement. i have to thumb up this! {quote}
can you explain?
  • #484
  • Apr 25, 2017 10:29am Apr 25, 2017 10:29am
Quoting forexer801
{quote} huh ? this is an ea im building its done yet only on 2nd generation so far. its set for a standard lot size so doesn't matter initial investment this would be the return. as it is, its a good example, you only need 50% wins to be in profit. if you do things right still working progress so don't judge too harshly. {quote} toe {image} {image} {image}
Well allegedly when President Trump visited Russia some escorts peed on him and it was meant to arouse him hence the joke golden shower, now that you know do you want that or 2 hugs or the soul of my ex haha (wicked)
Read in between the price!!!
  • #485
  • Apr 25, 2017 10:29am Apr 25, 2017 10:29am
Some already have psychological problem in their approach toward Forex and any other business- that it's not doable.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
  • #486
  • Apr 25, 2017 10:32am Apr 25, 2017 10:32am
You trade USDCAD here? Continuation bullish move on the way tonight
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
  • #487
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:07am Apr 25, 2017 11:07am
Get professional help. Your self-education has played it's part, but it sounds like you need coaching/training from a successful trader/teacher/coach to achieve your ambitions. Finding someone is another journey. Sorry, no holy grail coach either. Good luck, friend.
  • #488
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:20am Apr 25, 2017 11:20am
my answer is very likely not what calculus really tries to say.

but in a slight likelihood, might help a bit, who knows........ so to interpret calculus:

you observe the price movement, there are a couple of situations that there's very few participants, how do you know? just ask yourself if you would enter there.

for example, the tip of a big needle, would you enter there, at that moment? you probably would not, like most of us.

another question, when price return to that 'tip of the needle', would you enter? and why not?

and there are in fact more places that you have very few participants than my example. days of watching charts will help you to spot them.

Quoting warbee
{quote} can you explain?
  • #489
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:31am Apr 25, 2017 11:31am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} I hope your are retired and just game through your pocket money..... with such a mind set at an age < 40 you will become soon a real burden to the public .... with 99.8% probablity. But you can change your habits...... Good luck.
I'm 28 and I understand full well the wisdom you think you are imparting to me. I decided when I was a kid that I was going to take the hard-road and take on the responsibility of wealth. I, by no means, think that others don't have a brain. But I know that they took the 'wrong' pill.

The brain is a burden on the body. It serves no purpose in the body's acqusition of resources. It does, however, help regulate a system that cannot function long without one.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #490
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:47am Apr 25, 2017 11:47am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Such statements tell it all..... tell me more about the specific type and explain in greater detail so all can profit from your vast amount of wisdom.
That 'wisdom' comes from another source than myself. You can go hunting for it yourself since you assume my words are revealing an ego.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #491
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:05pm Apr 25, 2017 12:05pm
Quoting charvo
man, you see this thread is full of idiots who simply ignore your summary of the price movement. i have to thumb up this! {quote}
I believe you are speaking of a 'wedge'. Obviously, the market has participants and there is only one thing that is infinite...
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #492
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:17pm Apr 25, 2017 12:17pm
Quoting DClearsky
{quote} pull a Quant from his chair and have him trade retail like the rest of us if you want to go "toe to toe" with him. otherwise, i don't think we're fighting against the funds/ market, most retail trades never even see the daylight at the liquidity provider, retail trades end up in the broker's book, not the broker's brokers' book. so if the funds don't see our trades or our stops, they don't even know we exist. why would we fight them when they are not fighting us? we gotta succumb to the market's movements. wishing to win carries no weight...
Thanks DClearsky...
  • #493
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:23pm Apr 25, 2017 12:23pm
5 years and no strategy ? That means you don't know how to Observe, Analyze and Implement.
  • #494
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:25pm Apr 25, 2017 12:25pm
Quoting charvo
my answer is very likely not what calculus really tries to say. but in a slight likelihood, might help a bit, who knows........ so to interpret calculus: you observe the price movement, there are a couple of situations that there's very few participants, how do you know? just ask yourself if you would enter there. for example, the tip of a big needle, would you enter there, at that moment? you probably would not, like most of us. another question, when price return to that 'tip of the needle', would you enter? and why not? and there are in fact...
Thanks Charvo for your take...
  • #495
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:07pm Apr 25, 2017 1:07pm
Quoting charvo
my answer is very likely not what calculus really tries to say. but in a slight likelihood, might help a bit, who knows........ so to interpret calculus: you observe the price movement, there are a couple of situations that there's very few participants, how do you know? just ask yourself if you would enter there. for example, the tip of a big needle, would you enter there, at that moment? you probably would not, like most of us. another question, when price return to that 'tip of the needle', would you enter? and why not? and there are in fact...
but the fact that you wont enter somewhere doesnt mean others wont neither. Also by tip of the needle, did you mean candle ? if then how can you know the tip of the candle is reached also ?i hope you dont mind me asking.
  • #496
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:35pm Apr 25, 2017 1:35pm
aaven

Go look at the good moves, look what happened before them. In many cases, but of course not all, the patterns that develop before a good move will make it hard to either get on-board or will be designed to force people out who were already on-board. Ultimately it's all about PERVERSITY. Markets and trading are all about perversity, that's why it's hard. So you have to both look for perversity AND THEN USE IT to your advantage. But you can only do that if you understand that the markets and trading are about perversity.

But the rule also works for strong moves. Go look at a good move (up or down) that hardly comes back, that is again making it very hard to get on-board as everyone waits for some sort of decent retracement which never comes so they're forced to get in at worst levels so pushing the price even more. That is why a thrust move that doesn't retrace much (to start with) is one that normally has to be bought (reverse for shorts). So again, it's the market making it hard to get on-board that creates the opportunity.

I use the rule as a filter for trades. If I don't see how the price action is making it hard to get on-board I normally don't take the trade as in my mind, it's a weak setup (but of course they still sometimes work).

As for all the HFTs, hedge funds, bank traders and the like not being as good as everyone makes out. Everyone can't be the best. Just because you employ some very intelligent PhDs doesn't mean your going to make money. Otherwise all you'd have to do to make money would be to employ very clever PhDs but believe me, there are lots of them who have busted out of the markets. Same with HFTs, same with Hedge Funds, have you seen their collective returns (HFs) over the years? You'd be better putting your money in an index fund yet they all employ very intelligent people no doubt saying on their websites the old cliché of 'we employ the smartest people'. So my point is simple - not everyone can make money in this game and not everyone can be good because there's always a prymind type distrbution at work. A few great ones at the top and as you go lower the greatness declines and the numbers go up. Same with football players, lawyers, models etc, few can be at the top.

However, if people are worried about all of these bogeymen coming to get them why not learn how to neutralise them all so they either can't play their tricks against your position or better yet, your position is aligned with theirs.

How do you do that?

Via finding areas on the chart where everyone wants it. And where do you find those areas? You find them by using the simple rule of - dramatic price movements tend to unfold from price structures that minimise participation. What I do is simple - identify areas on the chart where people are being minimised, say a spike down in a flowing up market and then CONCENTRATE on how the market recovers (if it does). Often, but not always of course, you'll see evidence, if you know what to look for (experience is the only way), where everyone wants it. If you can find these areas you know that a lot of the market is offside and a lot of the market wants in. Therefore you have say $1million on the offer (assume up move) for every $2-5million looking to buy. The law of supply demand says we're only going higher because smart traders will pay up, not so smart ones will work bids and 'hope' to be filled but it won't happen so they'll be forced to pay ever higher prices in the very near future which forces others to pay even higher prices as stops and panic orders hit the market. If everyone wants it, no HFT/Hedge Fund/Super Trader/Insider trader/any other bogeyman will therefore sell because either they recognise what's happening or are already long. So you both eliminate their games/tricks and in many cases your interests are aligned.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #497
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:51pm Apr 25, 2017 1:51pm
Quoting Calculus
aaven Go look at the good moves, look what happened before them. In many cases, but of course not all, the patterns that develop before a good move will make it hard to either get on-board or will be designed to force people out who were already on-board. Ultimately it's all about PERVERSITY. Markets and trading are all about perversity, that's why it's hard. So you have to both look for perversity AND THEN USE IT to your advantage. But you can only do that if you understand that the markets and trading are about perversity. But the rule also works...
Interesting. I've never heard the market described as perverse. Does it look over the ladys' changing rooms at Target as well? There were some perverse people in the news recently.
  • #498
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:00pm Apr 25, 2017 2:00pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Interesting. I've never heard the market described as perverse. Does it look over the ladys' changing rooms at Target as well? There were some perverse people in the news recently.
Perversity is what sets an individual away from the herd. The herd loses. The perverse profit. It is known.

Do the non-perverse get to see up the skirts of ANY woman?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #499
  • Edited 4:36pm Apr 25, 2017 2:06pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting Calculus
aaven Go look at the good moves, look what happened before them. In many cases, but of course not all, the patterns that develop before a good move will make it hard to either get on-board or will be designed to force people out who were already on-board. Ultimately it's all about PERVERSITY. Markets and trading are all about perversity, that's why it's hard. So you have to both look for perversity AND THEN USE IT to your advantage. But you can only do that if you understand that the markets and trading are about perversity. But the rule also works...
Certainly seems perverse when the market always wins ... until you realize that the price will simply always move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts.
Don't look for "areas on the chart where everyone wants it"
Look for areas that "hurt the most"
  • #500
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:07pm Apr 25, 2017 2:07pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Perversity is what sets an individual away from the herd. The herd loses. The perverse profit. It is known. Do the non-perverse get to see up the skirts of ANY woman?
Yes. But that's because I'm not creepy and know how to pick up women.
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