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5 years and still no strategy

  • #421
  • Apr 24, 2017 10:45pm Apr 24, 2017 10:45pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} That's why I said "If you know when to apply it". Every EA except for one specific type works in a trending environment but not a ranging environment.
You cannot forecast when it will be a "ranging" vs "trending" environment enough to be profitable with lagging indicators. If it were that easy every noob on this forum would be making money. Indicators are all shit, especially lagging oscillators. They are a gimmick by brokers to churn for commissions and spread. That's why they're so heavily promoted.

It's like flying an airplane using tools for yesterday's weather conditions and hoping for the best. Sometimes you might be fine. Sometimes the conditions may even be better. But eventually you will crash and burn.
  • #422
  • Apr 24, 2017 10:45pm Apr 24, 2017 10:45pm
Quoting WolGod
There is NOTHING random about the markets. Ive never seen ANYTHING any move thats been random.
Must be random since there are so many losers ... (;
Catching a few pips due to some subjective idea does not mean it's not random.
There is always some order to be found in random data. Most will invariably attribute this order to some TA voodoo or Funny-Mentals (fundamentals) ... always after the fact..
  • #423
  • Apr 24, 2017 11:58pm Apr 24, 2017 11:58pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
You may have to take some psychology training before you can answer your question. I suggest reading Mark Douglas books.

IMO, 5 years is enough time to learn how markets work and you now should be ready to build a mechanical trading system that suits your personality or find one already built and use it. The question is, will you follow your rules after you set them? That will determine if you can be a successful trader.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #424
  • Edited 12:58am Apr 25, 2017 12:04am | Edited 12:58am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am on a mission to prove this widely known theory to be wrong...something that has captivated my interest in researching for a very long time. After learning programming, I now have all the necessary tools (no indicators at all) and exposure mgmt strategy in place. It is possible to probe in range and stack in trending market (and ignoring all the obstacles that we see on charts) as no two currency can be either in range or trending phase across timeframes. you 'just' have to find the right market conditions and then pick the right Pair(s)/Timeframe(s)...
That candle wisdom you said at the end isn't Graeme's 'blahblahblah'. Everyone puts a new name to their ideas and imagines they discovered the market and some secret new holy grail. The truth is that advice is arbitrary and the logic behind it is a bit more complicated than that. You might as well just trade Doji's...

Why? Because it's the same thing. Graeme's 'golden rule' on a 30-minute chart would be a Doji on an hourly chart.

If you want to understand why you will fail in your mission then study Quantum Mechanics.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #425
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:18am Apr 25, 2017 1:18am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You cannot forecast when it will be a "ranging" vs "trending" environment enough to be profitable with lagging indicators. If it were that easy every noob on this forum would be making money. Indicators are all shit, especially lagging oscillators. They are a gimmick by brokers to churn for commissions and spread. That's why they're so heavily promoted. It's like flying an airplane using tools for yesterday's weather conditions and hoping for the best. Sometimes you might be fine. Sometimes the conditions may even be better. But eventually...
That isn't exactly true. The indicators just help give slightly more precise information. A scalper can profit with lagging indicators because they only lag by a few minutes on the 1-min timeframe... more than enough time to get in and out of a reversal. A trader looking at the D1 charts might have a bit more difficulty but an oscillator with ridiculous risk management would still be profitable.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #426
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:22am Apr 25, 2017 1:22am
Quoting CindyXXXX
... essentially the market is always in a range and the banks day to day operate within the range until some fundamental or underlying reason moves things into a new range.
I am counting the distances in range and when it does a move to the next range. Sometimes there is more space in between two ranges. My definition of a range is the price to stay locked for days in less then 150 pips. At any given moment, about 2/3 of the major 28 pairs are in this state of range. Every week.

The counts I do, do suggest that the pips in range are almost equal to the pips in the trend movement. They also are balancing out the buy and the sell pips in between these movements.

Quote
The crux of what I was trying to say in the first sentence was confused and lost in latter part of my post, it will go over most heads but is basically the reason for the insane fact almost all are doomed to fail at trading. imo of course.
Inevitably, the traders do see (ONLY or MOSTLY) the candles that move the price into a direction, but they miss the fact that this happens only in 20% of the time. In the rest 80% of the time the rate stays in ranges... This is the primary technical reason that is killing them.

The other general killing reason is called leverage. Leverage guarantees the bankers, if the traders jumps over the technical obstacles of the ranging times, they will finally get caught in the leverage trap. And they all do get caught. In a longer run, almost no one is making money, due to the leverage trap.

To make money in trading, one first has to understand how the stop losses are working, to have a good exit plan for every situation, to learn to trade the ranging times (this is the most difficult of all). Everyone can trade the trend times. This is what keeps the faith one can make it, while topping up one's account for a tenth time...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #427
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:29am Apr 25, 2017 1:29am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} That isn't exactly true. The indicators just help give slightly more precise information. A scalper can profit with lagging indicators because they only lag by a few minutes on the 1-min timeframe... more than enough time to get in and out of a reversal. A trader looking at the D1 charts might have a bit more difficulty but an oscillator with ridiculous risk management would still be profitable.
You cannot increase precision by aggregating and averaging data.

Definition of precision: "refinement in a measurement, calculation, or specification, especially as represented by the number of digits given." Only the raw chart data can give you precise data about what the market is doing. Anything done to that data serves only to obfuscate what is going on.
  • #428
  • Apr 25, 2017 1:44am Apr 25, 2017 1:44am
Quoting CindyXXXX
It's interesting because if you ask anyone to draw you a diagram to represent the market 9 out of 10 will draw you a picture that could be described as a 1-2-3 pattern. And when forming a strategy or entering a trade this picture is the general inspiration and mind set. But essentially the market is always in a range and the banks day to day operate within the range until some fundamental or underlying reason moves things into a new range. These are your 100-200 pip moves which again is the inspiration burning in most traders minds. But the banks...
Stop run is what the banks do, after manipulation, thats the single most important acitivity before they go to their homes with the nice view...besides that, yes, they fill in some big client orders...otherwise its al about absorbing retailer meat.
  • #429
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:15am Apr 25, 2017 2:15am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Stop run is what the banks do, after manipulation, thats the single most important acitivity before they go to their homes with the nice view...besides that, yes, they fill in some big client orders...otherwise its al about absorbing retailer meat.

The Banks aren't interested in Retail Stops.

They are only interested in getting their Customers Orders filled at the best possible Price.

If Retail Stops get in the way of their Limit Orders then they will get Absorbed.

The Banks use Whole and Half Numbers, a lot, to Accumulate the Orders they need filled.

This is why you will see the Market PullBack, often, to these Price Points.

Just take a look at any Pair any Time Frame to see this.
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  • #430
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:19am Apr 25, 2017 2:19am
Banks are however interested in other banks' stops....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #431
  • Edited 2:56am Apr 25, 2017 2:30am | Edited 2:56am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You cannot increase precision by aggregating and averaging data. Definition of precision: "refinement in a measurement, calculation, or specification, especially as represented by the number of digits given." Only the raw chart data can give you precise data about what the market is doing. Anything done to that data serves only to obfuscate what is going on.
So, is a photon a particle or a wave? By your explanation... it's solely a particle.

By your definition; the double-slit experiment is a lie and you cannot possibly extract more information from the aggregate photons.

The point isn't that the indicators reveal anything the data doesn't also reveal. But the indicators can be tuned to be useful and provide more mathematical/statistical precision than a person could normally hope to acheive in a similar timeframe. If you can tell me the simple average of the last 240 minutes every 60 seconds... good for you. I'd rather just use an indicator.

I don't know about you but I have more than enough to think about when trading. That's WHY I trade. The cognitive ecstacy. Having some information readily available doesn't hurt if it's interpreted properly. I'm on a budget for now. I can't afford a bloomberg terminal. So, I improvise.

I also RARELY turn on an indicator but I can definitely understand the uses.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #432
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:36am Apr 25, 2017 2:36am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} So, is a photon a particle or a wave? By your explanation... it's solely a particle. By your definition; the double-slit experiment is a lie and you cannot possibly extract more information from the aggregate photons.
I'm not going to lie and tell you that the finer points of quantum mechanics are my area of expertise. I'm just saying, if you average some data, like in, well, a moving average, you can't get the original market data back. So unless you are watching the actual market information in the form of tick chart...candles, bars, whatever through the resolution you need, the end result is always obfuscation along with delay of getting the information. You can't win in the long run when you're handicapping yourself.
  • #433
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:00am Apr 25, 2017 3:00am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Banks are however interested in other banks' stops....
Also they are interested in collective retailer stops..
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #434
  • Edited 3:23am Apr 25, 2017 3:10am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I'm not going to lie and tell you that the finer points of quantum mechanics are my area of expertise. I'm just saying, if you average some data, like in, well, a moving average, you can't get the original market data back. So unless you are watching the actual market information in the form of tick chart...candles, bars, whatever through the resolution you need, the end result is always obfuscation along with delay of getting the information. You can't win in the long run when you're handicapping yourself.
I understand why you are saying that. I do. But that's not the point. The point is to smooth out the noise and to pull in additional aggregate information from the past because I don't have a 12ft monitor yet. I don't need to know the minute-by-minute moves from 4 hours ago. But I would like a nice line pointing out the middle of a wedge... like today with the EUR/USD.

I wasn't using any indicators today but it wouldn't have hurt. I would've had a better idea of which side of the range I was on with a SMA.

Moneyzilla, You were right there with me on the flips', weren't you?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #435
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:25am Apr 25, 2017 3:25am
Quoting ensale
{quote} Also they are interested in collective retailer stops..
Perhaps. But let me tell you my experience on stop runs. Its not only the number of stops that are to be executed, but its also about the number of orders you have to take out to get to those stops....the art of a stop run isn't hitting the stops, its getting out of your position, otherwise you are left holding the bag looking like a jackass
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #436
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:27am Apr 25, 2017 3:27am
Quoting WolGod
{quote} You do realise currency markets HAVE to move everyday and they do in perfectly for the big banks. They are laughing.
I tend to agree with you on this.
Markets, while they have a useful consumer/exchange function are primarily (as in bulk of activity/traffic/volume) big boys' money making machine.
Cheers,
k
  • #437
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:30am Apr 25, 2017 3:30am
Stop wasting your time with retail forex. Move on and dedicate your resources towards a real job, your family and your friends. You will be in a far better position two years from now than continue wasting time and money and your health in the search of a strategy that doesn’t exist.

If you don't have work you are paid for, consider to work for free.... I’ll bet you'll get rewarded for productive work you provide to others. Maybe it is not an instant reward in money, but most people who profit from you will try to give it back somehow. Sometimes their good will is worth far more than money. You will very fast recognize those who just exploiting you. Ignore them and make sure they are no longer part of your life.

Facts are:

The survival rate of a retail trader over a 5 year period actively trading is < 1%.

The higher the leverage applied, the faster your account gets destroyed - with a significant risk of a negative balance in case of a black swan.

On top of that retail brokers have a broad arsenal of tools to deplete your account far more efficient than just through spread and commissions.

It's proven that day traders are unable to "learn" to become profitable - all statistical data prove that losers continue to lose (Barber et al / 2010).

Insiders need retail forex losers to capitalize on their insider based trades that have an information edge. Insider trading is illegal because it can provide an illegal edge. The decentralized forex market is an optimal playing field for insiders to hide their actions.

Market rigging by big banks and hedge funds are proven facts. The dumbest of them have been fined for doing it in really simple and easy ways. Be sure that this is just the tip of the iceberg. The smart, well hidden rigging will go on forever …… and you will always fight against this significant edge of big players.

Keep in mind:

  1. HFT firms own the speed edge and front run all your orders
  2. Big hands own the leverage and market making edge
  3. Brokers own the spread and commission edge
  4. Quant firms own the data mining, AI and statistical edge
  5. Insiders own the information and front running edge


Retailers like you have no edge at all! None of you has one. You are at the bottom of the food chain. The only thing you can do is identify the actions of the competitors above and cannibalize a very small portion of their profits while exposing yourself a very high risk. You are always late in the game by definition and therefore it’s highly likely for you to end as a losers in the long run. 99.8% do......

Come on! It's so easy to see it. Just look at all the forex broker marketing guys active in this forum. You can so easily spot them. Say good bye to these retail snake oil sellers and tell them to f....ck off.

  • #438
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:40am Apr 25, 2017 3:40am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Stop wasting your time with retail forex. Move on and dedicate your resources towards a real job, your family and your friends. You will be in a far better position two years from now than continue wasting time and money and your health in the search of a strategy that doesnt exist. If you don't have work you are paid for, consider to work for free.... Ill bet you'll get rewarded for productive work you provide to others. Maybe it is not an instant reward in money, but most people who profit from you will try to give it back somehow. Sometimes their...
I literally said the same thing a few days ago. Then I decided I wanted to get rich because my public service job just isn't going to cut it.
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  • #439
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:41am Apr 25, 2017 3:41am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Stop wasting your time with retail forex. Move on and dedicate your resources towards a real job, your family and your friends. You will be in a far better position two years from now than continue wasting time and money and your health in the search of a strategy that doesnt exist. If you don't have work you are paid for, consider to work for free.... Ill bet you'll get rewarded for productive work you provide to others. Maybe it is not an instant reward in money, but most people who profit from you will try to give it back somehow. Sometimes their...
-Yawn- Spoken like a man that hasn't found his edge. But, you are wrong and you're overlooking a few simple things that they all have in common.

Also, what on earth makes you think being a Retail Forex Trader isn't work? It's probably one of the hardest jobs out there... It actually requires both learning AND having a brain.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #440
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:47am Apr 25, 2017 3:47am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} -Yawn- Spoken like a man that hasn't found his edge. But, you are wrong and you're overlooking a few simple things that they all have in common.
Redeflect,

"Simple things that they all have in common"

Please do elaborate on the characteristics that they share...

Thanks
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