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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,361
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:02pm Apr 24, 2017 3:02pm
Quoting sisse
A solid day across the board, all on board on this relief rally even the UK got carry as collateral of world equities. US equities lagging in this move but they look set for fresh ATH (S&P for ref) with any soft wind from Trump. With the lack of macro numbers and with French election chapter 1 cleared. Simple environment for trading this week 'Trade the Tweet, Sell the fact' if the DT tax cuts talk crash in reality against the political, legal and technical 'wall' [pun intended] as its expected with the [or the lack of them] details. Not much to...
last i heard it was a "no go" on taxes.. he can't do it w/o healthcare. and ryan said repealing OC was dead. i got a left and a right nut saying trumps tax plan will hit air after the smell wears off. it's just not done with a speech and a couple of tweets. then we got the debt ceiling even closer than it looks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,362
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:15pm Apr 24, 2017 3:15pm
eu atm at 1.0869... it's a possible high cap at 1.0869/70
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,363
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:21pm Apr 24, 2017 3:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
eu atm at 1.0869... it's a possible high cap at 1.0869/70
?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,364
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:31pm Apr 24, 2017 3:31pm
any news here????? step down mean anything to election?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,365
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:34pm Apr 24, 2017 3:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ? {image}
higher ... higher

I am looking to bid this for new highs.
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  • #150,366
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:35pm Apr 24, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
any news here????? step down mean anything to election? {image}
she stepped down to focus on the election, but the markets are unfazed - maybe because of such a large Macron lead in the second round (polls)
  • #150,367
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:49pm Apr 24, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} higher ... higher I am looking to bid this for new highs. {image}
me too... after it drops closer to 1.0340 1.0340/1.0585.. whenever usdx reaches 101.52
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,368
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:50pm Apr 24, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last i heard it was a "no go" on taxes.. he can't do it w/o healthcare. and ryan said repealing OC was dead. i got a left and a right nut saying trumps tax plan will hit air after the smell wears off. it's just not done with a speech and a couple of tweets. then we got the debt ceiling even closer than it looks.
Ride the pig mate ....we'll clean the blood stains and pick up the pieces on the way down after.

--> Markets are heavily loaded to the top side because we have strong numbers in the US for over 2 consecutive years now.

--> Mid term expectations map is getting clearer in the US economy. We wont selloff until either DT completely flop on the tax front or until he actually do it (I am more inclined to the former but both will give the same results).

--> What I mean, markets especially very large hands in the sectors& big Corporations sleeping with DT right now are and will 'overlook' everything else until we clear these announcements.

Some of the largest corporation in the US can make a killer even with 1/2 of DT theoretical plan. Its better for them to give him as 'much time' as necessary before he shoot himself in the foot (he will, almost guarantee) or start playing global war.

--> The potential gains are huge and they will extend far far beyond DT presidency. It wont be easy to backtrack from them once pass. We are too close to their goal to abandon ship. Obviously there will be costs and losers (we both now who will benefit and who will end up worst off) but his plan is so out of technical and rational sense that the fiscal side (including inflation) will get blown away rather quickly.

--> Once they get the candy or if they don't get the candy, all the things we have witnessed (risk, Russia links, war, conflict, Oil and Pharma links, fiscal budget, healthcare, etc etc you name it) will start blowing out if he doesn't dramatically change his ways (seems impossible for now) and become the President of the US and stop acting as a banana republic populist, cheap nationalistic quasi 'leader'....

Markets and investors sometimes they get blind by greed but they are not stupid. Not in his particular case, not at all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,369
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:55pm Apr 24, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} she stepped down to focus on the election, but the markets are unfazed - maybe because of such a large Macron lead in the second round (polls)
1.08597 is the st support.. 1.0879.9 was the st norm... lets see...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,370
  • Apr 24, 2017 3:59pm Apr 24, 2017 3:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
it's just not done with a speech and a couple of tweets. then we got the debt ceiling even closer than it looks.
I work a fedgov job and they ain't told us shit, but we're always in the dark until the ax falls
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,371
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:00pm Apr 24, 2017 4:00pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ride the pig mate ....we'll clean the blood stains and pick up the pieces on the way down after. --> Markets are heavily loaded to the top side because we have strong numbers in the US for over 2 consecutive years now. --> Mid term expectations map is getting clearer in the US economy. We wont selloff until either DT completely flop on the tax front or until he actually do it (I am more inclined to the former but both will give the same results). --> What I mean, markets especially very large hands in the sectors& big Corporations sleeping...
i can't ride the pig.. i just bob and weave... after uj makes 111.14/49/62.... i will ride it.. usdx is showing climb (eu drop b4 the real 1.13 rise,,, then the big drop when usd rises.. same plan as u noted a month back) .. its not agreeing with election optimization.. norm dont read the papers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,372
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:08pm Apr 24, 2017 4:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i can't ride the pig.. i just bob and weave... after uj makes 111.14/49/62.... i will ride it.. usdx is showing climb (eu drop b4 the real 1.13 rise,,, then the big drop when usd rises.. same plan as u noted a month back) .. its not agreeing with election optimization.. norm dont read the papers.
norm should read the papers to put timing in perspective...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,373
  • Edited 5:21pm Apr 24, 2017 4:13pm | Edited 5:21pm
ny rolled below london eu.. test of 0801 increased chances.
wrong pair
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,374
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:17pm Apr 24, 2017 4:17pm
I closed all my positions, I have no idea how to trade all of this. Feels like a coin toss more than anything else.
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It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #150,375
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:19pm Apr 24, 2017 4:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
... norm dont read the papers.
... same discussion after years and years of chatting we will always agree to disagree in this one.

--> Norm most of the time will work as long as you are in a predefined [and current..otherwise is useless for actual trading]range as most of TA tools. Once the underlying factors in an instrument change and form a new direction, those algorithmic flows are as useless as anything else.

--> FX markets (any market) will never ever be predefined ad infinitum by some magic lines and pullbacks in perfect synch.

Otherwise and from a strictly mathematical point of view all instruments will only move in only one direction forever and in eternity which is far far far from reality.... I am still waiting for that norm test in Lehman or when APPL broke $4.00 and never looked back and more relevant still waiting for UCHF to reach zero to complete the extension target ....etc etc etc....

Until then I will prefer to stay in synch with the markets reading the papers....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,376
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:22pm Apr 24, 2017 4:22pm
Pig is riding me atm. Pigs are not cute.

I know why too. Wise man told me once not to marry your analysis. Long time I had this picture of how french election zig zag would play out. (It was really beautiful, was pretty sure they'd make a movie out of it eventually with Brad Pitt as me) Anyway I stopped watching the road and watched my movie instead.
  • #150,377
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:25pm Apr 24, 2017 4:25pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} norm should read the papers to put timing in perspective...
works for me.. i have no problem with, what works for others. perspective is suggestive. when one is pulling, making the headlines. a equal reaction is always pushing somewhere else. if it was just the headlines or interest rates.. we would all have a few more zeros behind our name. when all run to one side of the ferry, the other side gets lighter. i would have imagined many got long at open yesterday highly leveraged. it was mostly quiet soon after. its how it works
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,378
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:29pm Apr 24, 2017 4:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... same discussion after years and years of chatting we will always agree to disagree in this one. --> Norm most of the time will work as long as you are in a predefined [and current..otherwise is useless for actual trading]range as most of TA tools. Once the underlying factors in an instrument change and form a new direction, those algorithmic flows are as useless as anything else. --> FX markets (any market) will never ever be predefined ad infinitum by some magic lines and pullbacks in perfect synch. Otherwise and from a strictly...
yes we have.. for years we both have been proving right or wrong. i like when we are on the same side.. we were about 2 years back for a few months about sub 1.0 eu. it didnt happen.. id like to blame it on the Fed not raising. the Truth is.. we didnt have inflation. we dont really have much atm.

you are 100 % right about the math. we both play odds. we know when something happens either fundi or numerical. something else happens and we may get a edge on it. whether it happens because of fundis or a numerical equation. the anticipated move is normal.. we both play norm in our own way whether we call it something else or not. fudi's have norm. in the use of using fundis. one has to make a exit plan for a loss or a win. this is usually done with a numerical plan of some type
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,379
  • Edited 4:58pm Apr 24, 2017 4:39pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting goosebone
Pig is riding me atm. Pigs are not cute.
Its time to 'man up' mate.

As we did a few months ago with IMARICH is graduation time, otherwise you will get stuck in research mode.

So you got caught holding shorts with French election results.

-> First point to take, try to avoid holding a position against inline with expectations in a major non market scheduled event. Sure you can play the devils advocate but I won't recommend you if you don't know exactly what you are doing because you will be always sitting betting against the flow.

-> We are rolling 1.086x. You are either holding on scratch trade or soft loss in the MT (1.087x or 1.079x or even 1.076x) and/or sitting with a large drawdown if you are holding ST positions form below (1.068x/ 1.061x or even 1.057x) You need to cut the crap, decide and move on. Either Cut your losses and no regrets if you are holding ST positions or accept the mistake and 'trail to stop you out'' for a softer loss. Trail to stop you out is micromanage positions to very unhealthy micro levels (e.g h4) and try to get out with the ECB at a better level but not higher than your current risk

-> Simple questions and PLEASE DON'T REPLY publicly in the thread as you are under fire and public accountability can make things worst in this case. I will chew it down for the last time in this conversation:

For ECB:

  1. Long 1.079x -> TP1 1.096x
  2. Short 1.089x -> TP2 1.077xx

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,380
  • Apr 24, 2017 4:51pm Apr 24, 2017 4:51pm
Quoting goosebone
Pig is riding me atm. Pigs are not cute.
things can always be worse.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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