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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,261
  • Apr 21, 2017 4:01pm Apr 21, 2017 4:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
closed my uj s for 30.. not holding over weekend.. in case of gap, i placed a pending eu long 0548 with a 20 stop.. uj pending slightly above 1.0801, stops 0798.. if nothing happens sunday.. i will tweak them
it figured as soon as i closed
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,262
  • Apr 21, 2017 4:04pm Apr 21, 2017 4:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} trying to stay out of the fudi of it. i just hope the russians dont win. u know i didnt think the euro/z would be able to hold it together forever. we got pitchfork mobs taking russian spewed bullshit to determine presidents/leaders all around the world. russia has 900 billion barrels of oil it wants exxon to drill for.. hence we got former exxon ceo for our s. o state. not to mention a bunch of other cronies placed in the cabinet courtesy of putin.. education, state, commerce, a few more slip the mind. but it worse than the average...
looks like it was all for nothing (hacking).. Putin/Trump will be pissed.. probably a win for oil prices and producing states.. it makes my 14$ oil chart less likely

P.S. does anyone think these treasury jobs are safe with Trump? Just replace the no sayers..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,263
  • Apr 21, 2017 4:31pm Apr 21, 2017 4:31pm
tock tick... there goes the wall http://www.nbcnews.com/card/former-a...-probe-n749481

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,264
  • Apr 21, 2017 4:46pm Apr 21, 2017 4:46pm
....and we are rolling. Irrelevant levels across the board with markets expecting inline with expectations France results but heavily hedged against risk in case of a flop.

For the weekend open, it's going to be fast and jittering open as early results come 1 hour before any market open.

Only a full flop or a full surprise (no extremist in 2nd round) will trigger a very sharp reaction in the Euro that will carry the board including Gold and Equities.

A flop is a direct hit Brexit style. One way ticket.

A 'positive: surprise will trigger a short lived zigzag in the Euro until we clear all hedges from the European open on Monday before moving anywhere else.

Any other scenario is inline and depending on the runner up, we'll continue in the same risk hedges till second round in very short lived rally to the current highs before rebalancing positions.

A full political BS week as widely expected.

Last minute DT missing the spotlight this week and with US Equities flirting to trigger a proper pullback. A plethora of talking heads pushing for some clarity from DT economic plan, it took just hours for DT to announce the announcement of the announcement for his tax plan.

Indifferent market reaction as DT is becoming more noise than content and more importantly markets completely subdue to the risk event this weekend were not going to rush on a tweet.

However, if French elections are cleared all eyes will be back to the US as this is pretty much a market ultimatum to DT to deliver some juicy details or else. Basically we'll enter in 'make or break' in US Equities until the summer.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,265
  • Edited 5:34pm Apr 21, 2017 4:52pm | Edited 5:34pm
Good luck to all holding and good weekend all.
Fat lady starts to sing on Sunday night Paris time.

From Five-Thirty-Eight (the guys who gave Trump a better chance of winning than did almost anyone else):
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...close-to-call/

"In fact, there are a few reasons to think that this election will feature a bigger polling miss. First, a lot of candidates from across the ideological spectrum are realistically in contention, increasing the likelihood that voters will cast their ballots strategically or will switch allegiances at the last minute. In the kind of two-person, left-vs.-right race that Americans are used to, voters are less likely to flip back and forth between candidates. In this election, few voters will flip from the center-right Fillon to the far-left Mlenchon, for example. But it’s easier to see some voters going from the far-right Le Pen to the center-right Fillon. Or jumping from Fillon to the centrist Macron. Or even from Macron to the far-left Mlenchon. We know from past elections in the U.S. that polls in multi-way races are the most error-prone."

"Indeed, the true margin of error is probably closer to 7 to 9 points in either direction, depending on how you calculate it. That’s more than enough for Mlenchon to catch Macron in round one."

"The race is tight enough, and French polls are inexact enough, that any two of the top four candidates could end up in the runoff. "
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  • #150,266
  • Apr 22, 2017 4:01am Apr 22, 2017 4:01am
UJ Looks to me 109.78 before 108.67.
If not below 108.87 first (now 14 pips above)
  • #150,267
  • Apr 22, 2017 8:52am Apr 22, 2017 8:52am
Quoting longshot_nl
UJ Looks to me 109.78 before 108.67. If not below 108.87 first (now 14 pips above)
Weekly/daily/4h are pointing to 109.8x before taking a dip but 1H is more like 109.22--------108.76---------110x. But for this 109.04 needs to break. I trust gator's analysis more than i trust mine but market respects noone. So lets see what happens☺.
  • #150,268
  • Apr 22, 2017 4:45pm Apr 22, 2017 4:45pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Weekly/daily/4h are pointing to 109.8x before taking a dip but 1H is more like 109.22--------108.76---------110x. But for this 109.04 needs to break. I trust gator's analysis more than i trust mine but market respects noone. So lets see what happens☺.
I very much respect gators view too.
But trading blind is stupid.
In the last 4 hours of the week this spike happened which puts a target on 109.7x which is 150% first wave.
This made me say this. Gator probably could not take this into account.

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For EU...
1.074x is norm and 61.8 retrace and was previous support.

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  • #150,269
  • Apr 22, 2017 11:48pm Apr 22, 2017 11:48pm
things are happening
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,270
  • Apr 23, 2017 2:47am Apr 23, 2017 2:47am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I very much respect gators view too. But trading blind is stupid. In the last 4 hours of the week this spike happened which puts a target on 109.7x which is 150% first wave. This made me say this. Gator probably could not take this into account. {image} For EU... 1.074x is norm and 61.8 retrace and was previous support. {image}
Well nothing can be said with certainty in this market. We have our analysis and then we have our SLs. Especially this week with the election. I am currently long with sl at 108.80.
  • #150,271
  • Apr 23, 2017 2:53am Apr 23, 2017 2:53am
Quoting The Fool
things are happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vO-TmSgq0Q
I'm sick of this NK crap. Why don't they just bomb the hell out of them already, whats the hold up....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #150,272
  • Apr 23, 2017 3:51am Apr 23, 2017 3:51am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I'm sick of this NK crap. Why don't they just bomb the hell out of them already, whats the hold up....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/japanese-...040902835.html

"North Korea will mark the 85th anniversary of the foundation of its Korean People's Army on Tuesday.
It has in the past marked important anniversaries with tests of its weapons."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,273
  • Apr 23, 2017 4:58am Apr 23, 2017 4:58am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I'm sick of this NK crap. Why don't they just bomb the hell out of them already, whats the hold up....
Certainly cant be humanity, must be fear, or may be bad experiences of previous bombings that created clear, present and future dangers...☺
  • #150,274
  • Apr 23, 2017 5:06am Apr 23, 2017 5:06am
For those who are fibonacci lovers. Please check out the fibonacci indicator at below link.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/21835
  • #150,275
  • Apr 23, 2017 5:09am Apr 23, 2017 5:09am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Well nothing can be said with certainty in this market. We have our analysis and then we have our SLs. Especially this week with the election. I am currently long with sl at 108.80.
careful as in a risk event the stop loss will not execute over the weekend.
  • #150,276
  • Apr 23, 2017 5:20am Apr 23, 2017 5:20am
looks like nothing to see here until the evening when the results are out.

reported voting turnout is average for this time of the day
  • #150,277
  • Apr 23, 2017 5:26am Apr 23, 2017 5:26am
Quoting gatorinla
closed my uj s for 30.. not holding over weekend.. in case of gap, i placed a pending eu long 0548 with a 20 stop.. uj pending slightly above 1.0801, stops 0798.. if nothing happens sunday.. i will tweak them
my view is here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,278
  • Apr 23, 2017 5:49am Apr 23, 2017 5:49am
Quoting The Fool
things are happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vO-TmSgq0Q
Its fake..

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/w...rl-vinson.html

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my view is here.
thanks.
  • #150,279
  • Apr 23, 2017 6:08am Apr 23, 2017 6:08am
Quoting pmmebids
looks like nothing to see here until the evening when the results are out. reported voting turnout is average for this time of the day
Actually official voting turnout given by the interior ministry at noon is quite good (28,54%),above average. Mobilization is higher than expected. It's bad news for extrem-right as it dilutes the vote. Let's see if it holds, next official estimate will be given at 5pm gmt+1. If it hold, it should be above 70% at that time. And above 80% at the end of the day. Online belgian newspaper www.lesoir.be might published first exit polls by 6pm (french ones are not allowed before 8pm).
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  • #150,280
  • Apr 23, 2017 6:36am Apr 23, 2017 6:36am
All eyes on France the next few hours. Potential game changer in Euro in play.

Clearing the extreme side parties as early as 1st round or a flop with France joining the populist/nationalistic bandwagon will trigger it.

Any other case will delay changes in outlook until 2nd round with odds of one or the other side depending on the runners up.

Political non market event so not much to see until first noise from exit polls start leaking to the wires and if the difference is too close or too fck up to call until first official results.

Schedule for today start from 5pm Paris time and peak tension between 7 and 9pm. By Asian open all should be cleared bar a very close call...

=====++++++=====


Maps are crystal clear for the news flow since last week but we didn't discuss the maps for today's flows in the thread so if anyone want to jump on board while we wait....

sisse

Ps: @Replicant thx for the lesoir tip
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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