The Really Useless Thread

Uff is rightWell while im very interested in what you have to say about it I'll warn you that, no offense to Dow, Gann or Fibonacci but that's a seminar I wouldn't attend.

I dont believe prices react to these type of TA levels (as completely opposed to the PA levels I've learned about here from you) for any reason other than the fact that enough market participants believe they will. Another way to say that is I don't have faith in the "science" behind any of it. No need to look at diagrams of seashells or study Elliott. The chart shows you it happens a lot so you take that into account. No "complex knot". Simple. So a mix of levels on my chart in no way represents a mix of theories i am trying to work with all at once. I'm laughing even typing that. But I find it all pretty interesting so don't stop the explanation on my account. Just please dont expect me to make a case for some Dowgannacci Frankentheory of my own design because that idea is hilarious. It probably comes from me not explaining correctly in my previous couple of tries, that I feel when using to your advantage, for example, the fact that price often bounces at 50, and a lot of times comes back to visit, that there's not a whole lot more to know about that. These levels are really a detail I use only sometimes in my own trading. A way to place a template on price movement that may or may not suggest a trigger for entry/exit. But that's it! If direction is right and risk is managed whats the big focus whether the trigger I use is consistent with someone else's ancient mathematical theory that was modified three times, then replaced by a new improved modern mathmatical theory?
So while I'll admit Im a bit surprised by the reaction to the last couple charts I posted here, (especially given that near identical levels are regularly posted here) I am also pretty interested to read the next chapter after we get through the news this weekend. Looks like it may have started a good conversation if nothing else. I maybe wrong but it seems thats a conversation you wanted to have.

Btw I looked up that discussion with Hatch the last time you mentioned it but it seemed to dead end. Maybe I didnt find the right one or didnt follow it all the way through. Link?

how are you calculating the lx2/x3? I've tried extensions of the london time frame range, high/low, open-close, etc. but don't seem to be able to ever come up with these figures. if you dont mind posting a chart or just a brief explanation, that would be extremely useful. thanks in advance

A good guess is always better than a bad measurement.

Same macro trend for the last couple of months. Good numbers from EZ keep coming while UK numbers starting to struggle and keep softening They will need to start finding a stop before it become a down trend....

That will kill the day in Europe. Euro is in full control of the FX board till next week ECB.

We are set to get back to 1.068x for NY to kill the currency board before French elections...Until then....

sisse

Hi All,

New here, just looking for some discussion, any good books read lately?

Neither would I.


Yes and no.

On my way for a train to Bristol so let's me put some long pointers and let them for discussion later...

---///-----

I'm not interested in reviewing every single one in detail neither argue which is good or bad for trading.

I just wanted to demystify some of those millions of lines people post in this board without even knowing why, when and how to apply.

More importantly behind this principles that sound a bit hocus pocus and some hardcore believers take it as dogmatic mantra, there are very important notions that are key for modern algorithmic trading and machine learning networks (way too advanced and out of scope but this is not to be dissmis if you want to be up to date).

The other point was to highlight whats the core notions behind all those 'magic' and sometimes even random lines that, in the right context, can be very useful to understand in trading:

==> Measuring fair value

All these TA models has one key thing in common. Trying to gauge where is a good place to buy/sell where you have a measured risk to enter the market.

If I tell you, hey goos, i guarantee you 100% stock ABC is going to go up in the next 12mts but you only have one and only one shot and limited capital to get in.

If you buy to high you run the risk to lose all your capital in drawdown before the move even start. The definition of being right and lose money.
If you are too conservative and place your order too low you may never get filled and miss the move.

So what you do?

The simple answer is hey let's just measure a good pullback and place the orders there despite if it's the perfect entry or nit. It would do the trick. ....
Obviously a simple answer is a basic +/- 50% pullback would cut it. It may not be the exact low for the pullback but will give you a good value to ride the next leg up ...Etc

---> as you can see it makes sense. However why do we keep adding lines if the point was to look for a decent entry only. The money is in the rally after especially on the break up of the range so why bother with all the extra lines...

... Because after a while some of the entries were never filled, on others the drawdown was so painful that made the rally pretty much useless for risk and in some other cases the pullback became a reversal making a big lost

....So how did they address these problems?

--> Gauging the flows inside of the range

Which leads o where we were last night on Gann ideas....

....tbc

sisse

one should never buy a stock with an investment horizon of one year. fair value of a stock -> npv with dcf. calculate; if price is below value, buy and hold. minimum 5 years, best 10 years. re-invest payed dividends (appr. 25% of the long time return on investment). buy at least 10 stocks of different industries, countries and currencies. the safest way to make money.

^ that wasn't the point in sisse's post at all

As widely expected since the UK election news and right on time for NY to kill the week back to square one (1.068x) for the final session before France elections chapter 1.

Expecting markets to slowly fade away after Europe goes home into comatose action till the close.

We have a rather long weekend ahead of us until 8PM Paris time on Sunday were we will need to track early results.

Plenty of time discuss the early discussion and more importantly like usual in this events will open the floor for the French election talk from the European close onwards.

sisse

That would be one way. Another way would be to see where a normal level in the bull path you are following roughly meets a normal level in the bear path (retrace) and place an entry there. To make up an example within your stock analogy: That might be at 150% or 200% of the smaller tf bear path (after a couple visits to mid) and at 50% or 61.8% of your larger bull path for example. In other words, charting an extension measurement in tandem with a retrace measurement (w/out any confusion between the two nor why you are using them both), charting two timeframes (w/out any confusion on which one you are trading), charting two directions (w/out any confusion on which way you are going), looking for one entry. If your direction is right, that might work out well for entry long.
Thats one way to do it too.
Don't take it as argument. Just thought I'd put it out there.

that's exactly what "she said"

the range of post L close. above/below close level, is the range. range size place +- a cross of the close level. is can be a r/s. i dont have it in a set of rules. i just use it to point to norm or a 50% retrace. lets keep it simple.

see where 0923 is. note reaction to 0897... or 0945 yest,,, see the algorithm

black boxes in tune

Sure but you are doing exactly what i was pointing out before. You are trying to measure a retrace.

It doesn't matter how do you calculate those levels, you will reach the same issues positives and negatives than the original dow/quarters/raw fibs had.

My point is trying to move forward and deep beyond the simple calculations. The moment you understand where is actually the 'pain' and problem you will be able to use the levels (wherever they come from for your case) in a more efficient way as a tool for consistent trading rather than applying the calculations as a set in stone formula for success.....

We'll go in details later, for now eyes on NY.

sisse

Ok. I look forward to it.
Eyeing 1.0675/65 today. And the obvious 730 to the upside.

Loading up the longs UJ right now

i am forced to wait for 08.74/.75 or less, maybe 0866 or less up till 08.01/07.94

Assuming Macron + LePen make it through, what's the number LePen would need to bring a result meaningfully different than expectations? In other words enough support for LePen to surprise and keep risk on the table between now and round two. Is it 30% or higher?
To get relief and take risk off the table I am assuming (maybe wrongly) that a round one result inline with polling and/or lower is needed.

I don't think it will change the vote despite the obvious emotion in the country after the attack. Or marginally. French live with this threat for a long time now. A very large majority are fully aware it can happen at any time and that it will take years to deal with terrorism. They know the problem is very complex and most of them don't believe in the solutions proposed by the extrem-right. See for instance what happened at the regional elections in France in December 2015 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...lections,_2015 ) right after the ultimate of horror with the attacks of cafes terraces and Bataclan concert hall in Paris. Pretending to eradicate terrorism from one day to the next with magic solutions, as extrem-right does, sounds simplistic and very naive to most of French. Moreover they know the problem is global and they have seen it can also happen in countries ruled with an iron hand (see St Petersburg attack in Russia). Thus, majority of french think becoming a Demokratur will not help and will just add fuel to the fire. But if this attack had to move the lines for this election, I would say it will benefit to Fillon to the detriment of Macron (as he is young and inexperienced) but very marginally to Le Pen. Of course, it will not benefit at all to extrem-left Melenchon.

Actually a second round Macron/Fillon is one of the most probable scenario with Macron/Le Pen and Fillon/Le Pen.

(1) I strongly disagree with this view. It's a cliche that some angelic journalists love to use to explain the rise of radical islamism. This argument loses validity as soon as you have a look at what is happening in other countries in the world. The massive rapes & tortures & kidnapping & executions & mutilations of everything that is not muslim in countries where the majority is muslim and has the power can not be obviously explained by the discrimination of muslims. It can be just explained by a uber rigorous interpretation of Koran by the established power and by extension by hate of everything that is not muslim. Explaining the rise of radical islamism for sociological reasons and reversing the roles, "victims are responsible", is firstly wrong and unfair but secondly very dangerous as that kind of arguments boosts extrem-right. Radical islamism comes from the archaic views of some muslims that don't accept the new world, the freedom to think and to behave as you wish. This is a problem and we have to name it because leaving this topic to extrem-right and nationalist is just feeding them. Most of the muslims hate radical islamism. A lot of them left their countries to escape this nightmare. For them it's a shock to find it in our countries.
(2) Having said that, there are obviously many immigrants integration problems in France due to racism (as elsewhere) but also due to the weakness of the economy. But don't forget among what you called the third class citizens, there are also many non immigrant french people, victims of the globalization, that explains why populism, either from extrem-left and extrem-right, is rising. But nobody is abandonned as you suggest : the social protection sytem is very advanced in France. If you are broke, you get 535 euros/month to live + 272 euros max/month to rent something. You have free school, free hospital, free medecine, free transport. If you are older (>65yo), you don't have 535 euros/month but 800 euros/month. If you have children, you get more help proportionally. And this is applicable whoever you are, french arrived right after the pleistocene glaciations, or fresh immigrant just escaped from Raqqa. Which is very good. But the problem is that to fund this system there are a lot of taxes and it kills the economy. Thus labor costs in France weigh very heavy, and with the rapid advance of globalization, relocation of companies are easy and plentiful. And that triggers populism... Sorry for this post but I found particularly unbalanced and tendencious your general presentation, the situation deserved a much more nuanced analysis.