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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,181
  • Apr 20, 2017 4:41pm Apr 20, 2017 4:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} What's your view in the Euro for French elections? sisse
trying to stay out of the fudi of it. i just hope the russians dont win. u know i didnt think the euro/z would be able to hold it together forever. we got pitchfork mobs taking russian spewed bullshit to determine presidents/leaders all around the world. russia has 900 billion barrels of oil it wants exxon to drill for.. hence we got former exxon ceo for our s. o state. not to mention a bunch of other cronies placed in the cabinet courtesy of putin.. education, state, commerce, a few more slip the mind. but it worse than the average man sees. i hope europe wakes up
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,182
  • Apr 20, 2017 4:50pm Apr 20, 2017 4:50pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} -> All seem to be cleared now. Not an attack or anything beyond a lone nutter trying to fish on critical times. -> What is clear is that the next few hours, France is going to enter in maximum security alerts. More than a few groups (from Russia to the extreme Right and even Murdoch an Co interest groups) are interested in rocking the boat before Sunday especially since latest polls show a slight softening from the extreme right and left. An attack will be perceived as a good last minute push for both extreme parties... -> Sad to see France...
*Islamic State now claiming responsibility for the attack .

It couldn't be a better timing for LePen to get more support from pro populism and nationalism .

Needless to say that polls are not to be trusted for such events lately so I would be more inclined to a negative risk for euro* for next few sessions .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,183
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:06pm Apr 20, 2017 5:06pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Here it is: {image}
yes.. you're correct. 0623 can happen. and it's still above 0340.. i have 0785 posted earlier. i wanted to enter there. you're right in it may be safer to wait for 0623. its also making sense with what usdx is set up for at 101.52.. check out the day rejection candle.. on the larger week chart 1.1115 is missed. now we have 2 different competing charts.. 1.13 needs to hold the 0340 low ,, it's larger than the one u see. it also agrees with the bulls pullback after reaching 0585 norm.. the 3 of these, can all be right..

111.14 uj and 1.1115 eu are similar looking..

u got to chose your poison..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 39 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,184
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:18pm Apr 20, 2017 5:18pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling with a neutral close in the Euro and a calm and efficient day across the rest of the board. sisse {quote} Ok got it. Just one quick question. This is not really related to my previous points but for real curiosity: => Why use Murray, fibs, Dow and those micro std deviations Gator use over fibs/QTs ? I mean why one will prevail over the other? What is the statical significance of using all at the same time instead of one of the tools alone? sisse
Well for me, is a line at any percent multiple of 12.5 "using murrey"? No it's just a line. I like to mark 25%, 75%, 50%, and 7/8 within the retrace. I see reactions there sometimes. Not sure on Dow or any other methods you mentioned.
I also see reactions at 23.5% rarely and 61.8% often (fibonacci). The 23.5% line with the 25% line often will contain small and weaker areas of tight consolidation when you draw them on large tf moves. Try it out.
I could pretty much throw them all away and limit to 3 sets of 3 the way I use them. Those would be at mid (50%), target 1 (150%), and target 2 (200%).
The 5.9% brackets to either side of those are mofu and there's volumes of gators, Pharmors backposts to learn about those with. Halfway to target 1 lies 125%. I mark that too.
So there you go.
It may look like 10 methods simultaneously but its not even a method in my case. It's a way to recognize places where price may act a certain way before the fact based solely on how ive noticed it acted at those same levels in the past.
  • #150,185
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:39pm Apr 20, 2017 5:39pm

++++ Political Post alert for French election ++++ feel free to skip if you don't want to hear details on the political side ++++


Quoting gatorinla
{quote} trying to stay out of the fudi of it. i just hope the russians dont win. u know i didnt think the euro/z would be able to hold it together forever. we got pitchfork mobs taking russian spewed bullshit to determine presidents/leaders all around the world. russia has 900 billion barrels of oil it wants exxon to drill for.. hence we got former exxon ceo for our s. o state. not to mention a bunch of other cronies placed in the cabinet courtesy of putin.. education, state, commerce, a few more slip the mind. but it worse than the average man...
--> Russians are hedging to both sides in the case of France. They got two horses rather than one like in the US and UK.

--> One (Le Pen) has deep business and political links with the Oligarchs. It's even closer to the relation with DT in the US because there are close personal friends ties between them and Murdoch cronies in between bridging the whole thing in a nasty mess of nationalist, neonazi, extremist BS..

-> The other (Melenchon) it's a cheap nearly free gift from heavens for the Russian Oligarchs, the ties are mainly for political and ideological reasons (the long gone communism, 'capitalism is bad speech') so its cheaper to keep it running and not business related....

-> France is big for their interest, because if Europe (except the UK and Turkey) doesn't flop (Austria, Netherlands and France [Germany wont flop later in the year]) , they wont get the full house and will finally get a small buffer of rationality with the world on the brink of major war.

Internally, France is a mess. They have been a mess for over a decade now.

-> They have an outdated economic model in urgent need for fresh ideas, socially the extreme dislocation between the average French and the large French born and raised 2nd and even 3er generation Muslim community are mostly treated as third class citizens with very little opportunities to move in the latter is a perfect recipe for terror and what we are witnessing in the last few years.

-> The overwhelming dependency of the economy for public money, over regulation, lack of entrepreneurship opportunities, and archaic tax system are charging a very heavy toll especially on the young and educated professionals and to put the cherry on top they had a disaster of politicians from right and left in the last years that have mad things worst from both sides ....

-> Voting for the neonazis or neocommunist will be the end for France as such and will trigger blood lots of blood in the streets sooner rather later.

France needs to come back to their sense. France urgently needs to start a deep introspection and start leading for the future instead of looking into the past for answer. The world more than ever now needs a positive constructive France even it that disappoint the Russian oligarchs, the Murdoch's or the extreme Brexiters that want Europe to decent in chaos to profit from the pain ...

Let's see how it goes. Lots in play for France, Europe and for us here in the EURO*.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,186
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:43pm Apr 20, 2017 5:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Russians are hedging to both sides in the case of France. They got two horses rather that one like in the US and UK. --> One has (Le Pen) has deep business and political links with the Oligarchs. It's closer to the relation with DT there in the US but with the extra add there are close personal friends ties between them and Murdoch cronies in between bridging the whole thing in a nasty mess of nationalist, neonazi, extremist BS.. -> The other (Melenchon) it's a cheap nearly free gift from heavens for the Russian Oligarchs, the ties are...
europe at once averaged a war every 20ish years.. sad part is history repeats.. i say it in fun.. but there's is a lot of truth in it. russian elite cause a lot of crap around the world for 60 yrs now,. if u cut of the head. the body will fall. i think europe america should give them a taste of their own propaganda medicine. destroy putin from within.. let his people decide..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,187
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:30pm Apr 20, 2017 6:30pm
I am an educated college grad and am pissed I don't know half the stuff you (sisse, gator, chester123 and others know). How am I so clueless? I hate this about me. I can't even have an educated opinion because I am truthfully so ignorant.

At this point, do polls drive EU higher or lower? I am struggling to see where the risk on or off is.
  • #150,188
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:34pm Apr 20, 2017 6:34pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I am an educated college grad and am pissed I don't know half the stuff you (sisse, gator, chester123 and others know). How am I so clueless? I hate this about me. ...
Life experience. You pick up a few things here and there outside of formal education, if you have been around a bit longer.
  • #150,189
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:53pm Apr 20, 2017 6:53pm
Im 48. I don't know any off this to have an educated opinion. Damn bubble!

However, I am at pub in US that is not typical. Having a Czar stout. Don't judge. It's very good.
  • #150,190
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:55pm Apr 20, 2017 6:55pm
Quoting sisse
++++ Political Post alert for French election ++++ feel free to skip if you don't want to hear details on the political side ++++ {quote} --> Russians are hedging to both sides in the case of France. They got two horses rather than one like in the US and UK. --> One (Le Pen) has deep business and political links with the Oligarchs. It's even closer to the relation with DT in the US because there are close personal friends ties between them and Murdoch cronies in between bridging the whole thing in a nasty mess of nationalist, neonazi, extremist...
great post. what france need is what germany did with the agenda 2010 more than a decade ago. the french economy is not competitve for many reasons. although the situation is bad, i´m sure macron will win - and hence will place a big bet on that most likely outcome. the majority in france is non-racist, and everyone knows that more of the same will not help france to get out of the trouble.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #150,191
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:58pm Apr 20, 2017 6:58pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Im 48. I don't know any off this to have an educated opinion. Damn bubble! However, I am at pub in US that is not typical. Having a Czar stout. Don't judge. It's very good.
Careful or you will end up in a congressional investigation. Switch for a Murphy's before someone takes a pic.
  • #150,192
  • Edited 7:46pm Apr 20, 2017 7:33pm | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I am an educated college grad and am pissed I don't know half the stuff you (sisse, gator, chester123 and others know). How am I so clueless? I hate this about me. I can't even have an educated opinion because I am truthfully so ignorant. At this point, do polls drive EU higher or lower? I am struggling to see where the risk on or off is.
You don't have any problem !!!. Not knowing something about a topic that is out of your working or interest scope is not a problem. We all have things (lots of things) we don't have a clue about. Just reading it makes you aware of your surrounding despite your ideology or what is your final position on a topic. THAT's what matter. using your brain to decide your own opinions not those one in a Tweet or fake news or fake leader.

The problem with the world now (especially in the US and UK/Europe) is that the majority not even bother reading and informing about history, basic economics, etc etc before voting so they jump blindly to lies and misleading fake news/false leaders and simply take democracy and the random luck privilege of being born in a free rich country for granted ...

sisse

Quoting goosebone
{quote} Well for m..
Uff mate what a mess ....

+++++LONG READING TA POST ALERT ++++


You will need to pay a subscription for an online seminar to just cover the basic for all those points.

-> A few years ago in this same thread we tried to explore this concepts with @Hatch so lets try to rescue some of those ideas.

Basically you have way too many levels without understanding properly where are they coming from and why they were introduced in the analysis. Its a textbook definition of a collage of bit and pieces from different TA approaches.

I think is not a good idea to use all of them at the same time. You are making a big mistake and handicapping yourself in the long run. Believe me on this one.

A few points to try to untangle that very complex knot you have in there.:

--> You are mixing up retraces with extensions in the same bag.

--> All these TA methods you are mentioned comes from derivates from Dow Theory. Basically price moves in trends (LT,MT,ST) so in order to 'dissect' and try to buy value in a retrace/pullback you can divide a range in 1/3. You get 33.33%, 66.66% and 100%..... not going in more details here....

--> After deeper research and etc, they found that a 50% retrace/pullback it was a very important level. First because it make sense to split in a very clear way the middle as fair value/undervalued [cheap buy]below/overvalued [expensive buy] above. Second in times of no computers and fancy chart, calculating on spot 50% is fast, easy and efficient ....not going in more details here ...

--> 33%, 50%, 66%, 100% didn't make much sense in terms of symmetry and also in calculation so obviously the answer was splitting the range in 1/4. We got the obvious and symmetric 0% 25%, 50%, 75% 100% that allowed not only to have the 50% value area but also find a good spot to enter when price was undervalued (75% area) or when was too early to look for entries or market was already gone (on the way back up to 25% area).

--> And then some smart ass obviously saw well eveything in nature keeps the Golden Ratio and etc, and the Fibonacci numbers and calculation entered in the picture. The range that started from 33% / 66% / 100% became in what you are more use to first with the introduction of 61.8% and 38.2% that allowed to gauge if a retrace was actually a retrace or it was actually a reversal and the 25% became 23.6. We ended up with 0% 23.6% 38.2% 61.8% and 100%. 50% is not a fib number so at the beginning was discarded ....not going into more details ...

--> And here is where everything start getting messier because the main TA tools start splitting from the core concepts. The first and almost universal change was reintroducing 50% as key level for ease of calculation and common sense. After in order to keep symmetry in both sides of the 50% they introduce the fib 78.6% but obviously 78.6% is not perfectly symmetrical in a range with 23.6%....no more details here ...

--> So another smart ass start digging different and trying to go back to the basic symmetries of the original Dow so Gann Theory start coming up which make things even more messier. The first thing was to replace 78.6% for the more symmetrical 76.4% but Gann ideas brought a whole new playing field. The main points ...

TBC ...in the workshop ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,193
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:37pm Apr 20, 2017 7:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} europe at once averaged a war every 20ish years.. sad part is history repeats.. i say it in fun.. but there's is a lot of truth in it. russian elite cause a lot of crap around the world for 60 yrs now,. if u cut of the head. the body will fall. i think europe america should give them a taste of their own propaganda medicine. destroy putin from within.. let his people decide..
Im not a historian. But is it safe to say that pattern broken (peace) after WW2 owes much to globalization (internationalism then) efforts. Seems relevant when considering the current shift away from it towards nationalism.
  • #150,194
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:47pm Apr 20, 2017 7:47pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Im 48. I don't know any off this to have an educated opinion. Damn bubble! However, I am at pub in US that is not typical. Having a Czar stout. Don't judge. It's very good.
You mean <insert country here>. In our case America, it isn't your fault, but you're the solution....

The average American, European, Russian, etc doesn't know jack squat about the world around them....public education does not center on world affairs, it centers and pigeon holes people into doing a trade (engineering for me), putting your head down, paying your taxes, and dying. The thing I've gained most from this thread is a true world view, I'm able to see the world around me, decipher world news, etc. Trying to talk to the average person about what's going on in France besides facebook headlines often leaves me talking alone...
  • #150,195
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:56pm Apr 20, 2017 7:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} You don't have any problem !!!. Not knowing something about a topic that is out of your working or interest scope is not a problem. We all have things (lots of things) we don't have a clue about. Just reading it makes you aware of your surrounding despite your ideology or what is your final position on a topic. THAT's what matter. using your brain to decide your own opinions not those one in a Tweet or fake news or fake leader. The problem with the world now (especially in the US and UK/Europe) is that the majority not even bother reading...
Don't forget the smart ass that introduced mofu's to the equation (44.1,55.9)
  • #150,196
  • Apr 20, 2017 8:00pm Apr 20, 2017 8:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Don't forget the smart ass that introduced mofu's to the equation (44.1,55.9)
We'll get there....but I stay with sisse's ......

I haven't even covered 1/2 of just naming the basics of them ...let alone digging in how they were/are traded...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,197
  • Apr 20, 2017 8:42pm Apr 20, 2017 8:42pm
I think is not a good idea to use all of them at the same time. You are making a big mistake and handicapping yourself in the long run. Believe me on this one. (quote)

The best break down of historical theories. Common factor of 50% Looks strong
  • #150,198
  • Edited 9:51pm Apr 20, 2017 9:36pm | Edited 9:51pm
atm london Lx 2 is 1.0897 above the 1.0874.. LX3 at 0872 uj... the 2x worked well the last few days. any way if norm at 0874 happens.. the Lx3 is near below at 0872, it may provide added support.. nothing much expected w/o -0923 close on a h to start. probably bullish w/o it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,199
  • Apr 20, 2017 9:47pm Apr 20, 2017 9:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
atm london Lx 2 is 1.0897 above the 1.0874.. LX3 at 0872 uj... the 2x worked well the last few days. any way if norm at 0874 happens.. the Lx3 is near below at 0872, it may provide added support.. nothing much expected w/o -0923 close one a h to start. probably bullish w/o it
tweaks to be updated.. but if in above scenario 0874 is the low. then the L 2x may be 0972 later.. pa threatening 109.23 as i write
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,200
  • Apr 20, 2017 10:03pm Apr 20, 2017 10:03pm
h closed below..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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