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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,101
  • Apr 19, 2017 10:38pm Apr 19, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on the blue.. 0881 may launch this micro to a +0917 hh, it's yet to entertain 0881 in the micro tf.. 5 min chart.. in 45 min 109.07 may b important.. strong bulls will close above.. they may sleep after like after sex... {image}
reset to 12 more hours for 09.07.. 24 hours ago it was lower. still bullish, not the strong looking type..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,102
  • Apr 20, 2017 1:34am Apr 20, 2017 1:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} reset to 12 more hours for 09.07.. 24 hours ago it was lower. still bullish, not the strong looking type..
Bulls not getting any sex. All cows having headaches. I wanted 109.20. Lets see.
  • #150,103
  • Apr 20, 2017 2:05am Apr 20, 2017 2:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} reset to 12 more hours for 09.07.. 24 hours ago it was lower. still bullish, not the strong looking type..
Gator, if and if only price breaks 0868, without hitting 0907/0920. Would you look to buy from lower or think about a short scalp?.
  • #150,104
  • Apr 20, 2017 3:34am Apr 20, 2017 3:34am
...and that was it for the European morning and prolly the week across the board. 1.066x in the Euro only level in play across the FX board after Europe goes home today for French elections and ECB...

Not much to see or do here till NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,105
  • Apr 20, 2017 4:30am Apr 20, 2017 4:30am
Quoting sisse
{..... +++ Final live iteration in the Euro ++++ Update 1 "Parit, Consolid ou Termin" => Long @1.062x STP: 1.052x TP1: 1.078x TP2: 1.086x (top target) TP3: 1.095x +/-max r:r: 1:5 ExForX kayaker => Short @1.062x STP 1.072x TP1 1.046x (bottom target) TP2 1.028x TP3 1.019x +/-max r:r: 1:5 Fadhl chronical Pharm0...
I'm applying same standards I apply to my own trading decision in the iteration so the traditional 'don't be a dick for a tick' rule applies in this case. Clearing 1.078x target in the iteration a handful of ticks below...

Very well done @ExForX and kayaker and all that played the W roll play (zero drawdown at all as its expected in a roll play). A flawless entry for those holding longs from the lows of the 1.06x and a decent soft rally for those who took the reverso play 1.067x later.

For those betting on (now clear best possible decision for french election) neutral is crunching time...

A quick update on the iteration front:

+++ Final live iteration in the Euro ++++

Update 2

"Parité, Consolidé ou Terminé"


=> Long@1.062x [uber check] STP: 1.052x TP1: 1.078x [check] TP2: 1.086x (top target) TP3: 1.095x +/-max r:r: 1:5

ExForX

kayaker

=> Short @1.062x STP 1.072x TP1 1.046x (bottom target) TP2 1.028x TP3 1.019x +/-max r:r: 1:5


=> Neutral No Touch 1.082x [in play] or 1.042 until French elections are over +/-max r:r:1:2

pmmebids

goosebone

hoom

Grinsakh

suntan

gazpacho

IMARICH1

PAStalker

eborn

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,106
  • Apr 20, 2017 4:35am Apr 20, 2017 4:35am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Sisse was discussing the hedges and protections involved with this risk event here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...91#post9763991 Is it sensible to think round one results reaction will be tempered or even driven by the unwinding of these to either side? Or only if round one results make round two 99% predictable (with a Macron landslide for instance) or thirdly the unwinding of hedges to either side won't be a factor until the election is a done deal after round two? Maybe I am misunderstanding the way this...
I am not sure I understood you well. I was saying if Macron qualifies to the second round, there won't be any suspense at all (he will have to kill someone in the meantime to change the outcome of the second round). So I don't see why the markets will not immediately digest the end of uncertainty as early as Monday if he qualifies. Btw, there was an atomic poll for Macron published this morning :

Harris: Macron 25% , Le Pen 22%, Fillon 19%, Melenchon 19% (and 66/34 for Macron Vs Le Pen in the second round)
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique...s_2153205.html

It looks like a done deal.
  • #150,107
  • Apr 20, 2017 4:59am Apr 20, 2017 4:59am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I am not sure I understood you well. I was saying if Macron qualifies to the second round, there won't be any suspense at all (he will have to kill someone in the meantime to change the outcome of the second round). So I don't see why the markets will not immediately digest the end of uncertainty as early as Monday if he qualifies. Btw, there was an atomic poll for Macron published this morning : Harris: Macron 25% , Le Pen 22%, Fillon 19%, Melenchon 19% (and 66/34 for Macron Vs Le Pen in the second round) http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique...s_2153205.html...
Things are a lot clearer in terms of the markets scenarios in play.

The 2 major (and i mean MAJOR!!!) movers and shakers come from the least probable scenarios:

--> one is a double wreck in France with the extreme right and left passing to the 2nd round (neonazis vs neocommunist ... Basically a humiliation and the end of France).

Euro non stop ride to parity for the summer. CAC40 a selloff -15% till second round.

-> the second is the least probable is the extreme right l/left flopping and not passing to the 2nd round.

Euro 1.12xz for the summer but more importantly unlocking 1.20xx for the mid term. CAC relief short lived rally until second round. There will be decision time for more...

Any other combinations is all the same we are right now until second round.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,108
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:00am Apr 20, 2017 5:00am
If the French elections go as expected with no surprises; Macron & Le Pen make the 2nd round with Macron winning comfortably will the unwinding of hedge positions be +ve or -ve to the Euro?
If hedging is done via options these will expire with little impact?
Are we seeing the relief rally now with the result looking to be going to expectations? Once confirmed do we revert back to RMT with dollar in the driving seat?
From a TA perspective we have just had a higher low and we may be about to create a low high confirming a compression of range and a neutral outlook?
  • #150,109
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:24am Apr 20, 2017 5:24am
really dont know what to say about france election ..... 000000.01% idea so no comments on that will try to learn from all of you .... last position still running from 1.087x but in trailing ....

north side range getting extended once stopped on the last position will be officially flat as pancake until chart gives some clue .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #150,110
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:53am Apr 20, 2017 5:53am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Gator, if and if only price breaks 0868, without hitting 0907/0920. Would you look to buy from lower or think about a short scalp?.
i dont have a s scalp on radar. but possibly after 0920 that's near 0945 .. london times x 2 potential R,, if so, one more shot at 0874 wouldn't be a surprise. your asking what i have already answered hours back. of course near that 0945 area or higher is better... i have no concrete way to know if 0945 would hold. getting above 0917 may trigger one final retrace to 0874.x.. closing above 0907 would be bullish on Lpndon roll.. and if after it went to 0874, i damn sure would be looking to continue being long..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,111
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:01am Apr 20, 2017 6:01am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Bulls not getting any sex. All cows having headaches. I wanted 109.20. Lets see.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,112
  • Edited 6:39am Apr 20, 2017 6:25am | Edited 6:39am
usd low today at 99.38.. its getting close to some past support (99.23). i still have usdx going to 101.52, as a most often norm.. but that norm has lots of room to run free above 96.64. 96.64 is my target still, with a norm in the 97.xx zone.. both still lower. but, 101.52 happens most often before. plan on watching eu in the 1.0785 area atm. that's 200 pips above the 1.0585 i rode on the way down. 1.0585 was where i wanted to tp eu short weeks back and start longing. the usdx made me look for a deeper entry, so i closed those longs. it sucks atm.. i refuse to chase atm with usdx having that potential rise, and therefore eu drop.. chart shows usdx levels w/o candles.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,113
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:30am Apr 20, 2017 6:30am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I am not sure I understood you well. I was saying if Macron qualifies to the second round, there won't be any suspense at all (he will have to kill someone in the meantime to change the outcome of the second round). So I don't see why the markets will not immediately digest the end of uncertainty as early as Monday if he qualifies. Btw, there was an atomic poll for Macron published this morning : Harris: Macron 25% , Le Pen 22%, Fillon 19%, Melenchon 19% (and 66/34 for Macron Vs Le Pen in the second round) http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique...s_2153205.html...
Mostly just a question about the hedge positions sisse had mentioned but he kind of just answered it. Not with the obvious layout of event results and which ones will surprise but by attaching numbers to them. If a shock Melenchon/LePen result brings us to parity and a shock flop by those two brings us to the top of the MT range then I was definitely misunderstanding how this idea of clearing precautionary hedges plays out. In fact i kind of had it backwards. Makes sense to me now that if anything, it adds fuel if there turns out to be a fire.
  • #150,114
  • Apr 20, 2017 6:42am Apr 20, 2017 6:42am
old man tunes
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,115
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:04am Apr 20, 2017 7:04am
I've been reading up on the previous posts by Sisse on price analysis.
Attached Image


Sisse mentioned previously a zigzag play to the top of the 1.070x handle.
The line on the chart shows the short entry signal on the move lower from the 1.090x high and remains a Point Of Control for sellers.
Stops are likely to be at least at the open of the signal candle at 1.081x (incidentally roughly the high level from Sisse recent neutral no touch iteration ) and safe from a zigzag move to the highs of the 1.070x handle.
Price seems to have reversed almost exactly from this Point Of Control.

Does this make sense to anyone?
  • #150,116
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:12am Apr 20, 2017 7:12am
Quoting suntan
I've been reading up on the previous posts by Sisse on price analysis. {image} Sisse mentioned previously a zigzag play to the top of the 1.070x handle. The line on the chart shows the short entry signal on the move lower from the 1.090x high and remains a Point Of Control for sellers. Stops are likely to be at least at the open of the signal candle at 1.081x (incidentally roughly the high level from Sisse recent neutral no touch iteration ) and safe from a zigzag move to the highs of the 1.070x handle. Price seems to have reversed...
Yes, I actually took an entry there. ( Short ) . However I dont like the USDx. Anyway if EU continue up before weekend it will come back to there and should be possible to get an graceful exit if wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXDaily.png Size: 44 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #150,117
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:23am Apr 20, 2017 7:23am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Yes, I actually took an entry there. ( Short ) . However I dont like the USDx. Anyway if EU continue up before weekend it will come back to there and should be possible to get an graceful exit if wrong. {image}
Euro* is in total and full control not Dollar for the next few days...my 2 cents ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,118
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:24am Apr 20, 2017 7:24am
Quoting suntan
Price seems to have reversed almost exactly from this Point Of Control. Does this make sense to anyone?
I'm still new to learning what Sisse teaches, but since the high and the open of that daily candle were untested, it must make it a Point of Control.
  • #150,119
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:42am Apr 20, 2017 7:42am
3 months, it seems more unemployment claims rising slightly. making it great has a small trend starting.. looks like wag the dog coming. i suspect n korea better start watching employment data. another rise could mean a few moab drops...
anyone in for a "shoot the messenger tweet"?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,120
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:49am Apr 20, 2017 7:49am
Quoting gatorinla
3 months, it seems more unemployment claims rising slightly. making it great has a small trend starting.. looks like wag the dog coming. i suspect n korea better start watching employment data. another rise could mean a few moab drops... anyone in for a "shoot the messenger tweet"? {image}
Could be a changing of the dog in play here (NK to Iran) Any dog will wag.
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