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  • #150,081
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:17pm Apr 19, 2017 3:17pm
Quoting Fadhl
Any idea why OIL was sharply sold? is it because War Risk faded? normal retracement? thanks in advance!
"Gasoline stockpiles increased by 1.5 million barrels, to 237.7 million barrels. Analysts were expecting gasoline inventories to fall by 2 million barrels from the previous week." -WSJ
  • #150,082
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:19pm Apr 19, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting el_duende
For last 3 years it has been agreed by oil producing nations there has been an oversupply of oil which has caused oil prices to crash. The lower oil revenues for many countries is having a big impact,,,,, The idea was that by reducing supply it would force price up to a target of $60. However recent figures show there is still a large surplus of oil in the world and to compound matters the USA have decided to increase their own oil production making the oversupply worse. ...)
=> You got a very good point there. Beyond the political [random]mess the US is making with his policies that are going 180 degrees against markets and what are criticising from the rest of the world (protectionism, currency manipulation, foreign capital restrictions, skewing free competition for 'national' business [whatever that means] and now OIL overproduction ).

If one read the last 3 months of semi official announcements in the economic front, one can think we are talking about some third world communist/extreme left country...whatever the case and your point:

=> The latest numbers from the US OIL numbers are pointing to a major 'oil rush' which goes exactly against what world OIL markets have been trying to balance in the last 2 years: Overproduction.

=> All the ducks (and the wrong ones) are entering in the US OIL picture. Since price hit and maintained $45/ $50, US OIL investments became attractive one more time, with macro numbers pointing up, with DT promising a major blown infrastructure, Exxon in full monopoly of US foreign policy and with DT discovering the short term 'delights' in popularity of warmongering US oil sector has gone over board before we even trigger any real confirmation of any of the triggers above yet.

=> The only way OIL will flow freely is via war/conflict now as the more US free ride and produce more, the cheaper it will get and the more pressure it put for others (Russia and OPEC) to free ride and join the race to the bottom. Without risk, bullying US foreign policy, conflict and war (which is seem impossible to avoid in the short/mid term), we have all the ingredients in the supply side ready for the biggest short-circuit in OIL history ...

Tracking closely how things will pan out but the no brainer break up, its becoming harder by the minute because the lack of details in DT economic plans, overproduction in the US and OPEC and Russia on the brink to break lines and free ride.

In my case, especially with Tillerson in control of US foreign policy I still give more weight to conflict and warmongering as triggers to the upside in the short term ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,083
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:23pm Apr 19, 2017 3:23pm
Quoting sisse
Markets feeling heavy this week. Expecting a good round of numbers on the close to form a short term floor until further data otherwise we will keep extending the lows on inertia in US equites. Highlights come from the sharp selloff in Oil (stopped out in all remaining positions here) and now will need more than a warmongering tweet from the US to push upward. On the Fx board, inflation spreading wider in the UK and April officially has hit in the pockets in a multiyear impact in real wages. We have crossed the threshold of no return in RMT with...
So shall we do a break down of GU?

+++ = all great
--- = all bad

GBP:
-> Monetary Policy (hikes, inflation, etc) ==> ++
-> Macroeconomic Factors (employment, economy, etc) ==> - (not too bad yet, looking for unemployment to tick up and wages to hurt via inflation)
-> Risk factors (Brexit round 2) ==> -- (Article 50 triggered, hard brexit likely)
->External factors (political interference, manipulation, etc) ==> nothing here- as it falls within brexit risk factors imo

Compared to USD taken from sisse

-> Monetary Policy (fed, hikes, inflation, balance sheet etc) ===> +++
-> Macroeconomic Factors (employment, strength of the economy, etc) ===> +++
-> Risk Factors (geopolitics French elections, war) ==> ++
-> External factors (politicians interference, currency manipulation, DT tweets etc) ===> - - -

I'm inclined to say GU is neutral short term (largely based on dollar and pound rate hikes and both present political risk), sell mid term depending on whether dollar continues to be a buy, and if Brexit turns ugly or inflation/wages etc turn ugly

However, I feel like sisse's outlook is buy GU. <i need to check the chart, cant find it>
  • #150,084
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:29pm Apr 19, 2017 3:29pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} So shall we do a break down of GU? +++ = all great --- = all bad GBP: -> Monetary Policy (hikes, inflation, etc) ==> ++ -> Macroeconomic Factors (employment, economy, etc) ==> - (not too bad yet, looking for unemployment to tick up and wages to hurt via inflation) -> Risk factors (Brexit round 2) ==> -- (Article 50 triggered, hard brexit likely) ->External factors (political interference, manipulation, etc) ==> nothing here- as it falls within brexit risk factors imo Compared to USD taken from sisse -> Monetary Policy (fed, hikes, inflation,...
ST, MT or LT?
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,085
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:30pm Apr 19, 2017 3:30pm
Quoting sisse
Second round of updates from the Brexit front: -> Confirming short and mid term outlook in Sterling* in strong neutral in a wide range. -> Changing long term outlook in Sterling* from neutral to sell. sisse
Oh shit- look like i got it (sort of) right

@sisse, you may have missed my edit. I'm sitting neutral short term, sell mid term after the scratch paper analysis I did just now

Quote
I'm inclined to say GU is neutral short term (largely based on dollar and pound rate hikes and both present political risk), sell mid term depending on whether dollar continues to be a buy, and if Brexit turns ugly or inflation/wages etc turn ugly
  • #150,086
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:39pm Apr 19, 2017 3:39pm
Quoting sisse
Markets feeling heavy this week. Expecting a good round of numbers on the close to form a short term floor until further data otherwise we will keep extending the lows on inertia in US equites.
stocks down, commodities down, but we are still in flatline mode for equities. Heading into the real heart of earnings next week, if there are big misses in the big names and oil keeps sliding, news of govt shutdown (just confirmation that Trump is doomed to ineffectiveness) and more geopoli noise with French election results aftermath and new Armada rattling in the Sea of Japan.....we could finally get some significant bear action for US stocks and break below the range...then there's the FOMC May3, not expecting a move there but who knows?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,087
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:57pm Apr 19, 2017 3:57pm
Short a touch of ECAD from 1.445 Sort of btfd on oil blended with a October Surprise bet (in April) for elections. Not sure I hold thru weekend though given the obvious risk that comes with that.
  • #150,088
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:00pm Apr 19, 2017 4:00pm
Whats also interesting is one of Trumps first actions as president was to sanction and advance new USA oil pipelines to be built. An executive order was signed for this in January reversing what the Obama administration had vetoed.

Oil producers in Canada and North Dakota are expected to benefit from a quicker route for crude oil to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. But going ahead with the pipelines would mark a bitter defeat for Native American tribes and climate activists, who successfully blocked the projects earlier and vowed to fight the decisions through legal action.'

Phase 3 is almost complete leaving just phase 4 left to complete for full operation. No ETA on this yet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

Obviously Canada will be made up with this arrangement as they will increase their market share. Russia and OPEC countries are going to be pissed as their will be a lot less importing of oil by the US.
  • #150,089
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:20pm Apr 19, 2017 4:20pm
Lucky Roll 711
  • #150,090
  • Edited 4:34pm Apr 19, 2017 4:21pm | Edited 4:34pm
...and we are rolling with irrelevant closes across the FX board. As has been expected all week long we are only moving via politics the last few days. There is very little in between and only few days to a major schedule non market event from France that will have the Euro* in centre stage...

Not much to update beyond the sharp selloff in Oil is something to keep a very close eye in the upcoming sessions.

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Oh shit- look like i got it (sort of) right @sisse, you may have missed my edit. I'm sitting neutral short term, sell mid term after the scratch paper analysis I did just now {quote}

Good that you picked up. Not many people follow with the Questions in the thread. OK here my 'ratings' for those questions:.

=> ST

GBP:
-> Monetary Policy ==> ++Not three because BOE still pumping money and on hold to pour even more on the minimum sneeze from Brexit slowdown.
-> Macroeconomic Factors ==> ++ we entered in full employment the day before Brexit vote (will be the oxymoron of shooting yourself in the foot at the end you will see) , solid macro numbers in almost all fronts until Dec/Jan. The last 3 months has started to softening especially in key sectors and construction/commercial real estate (that holds one of the keys later as early alert in Brexit affecting the real economy)
-> Risk factors ==> - (now until election maybe --) all via politics and Brexit negotiations and very marginal via Geopolitics (for now)
->External factors ==> + for now. The dinosaurs trying to hijack the BOE has calmed down as they are too busy playing politics till election.

Total = +++++ vs -

USD
-> Monetary Policy ===> + (hikes well underway on track with expectations)
-> Macroeconomic Factors ===> +++ (numbers holding with slightly softer numbers from employment but more because we are in full employment not because anything else)
-> Risk Factors==> Neutral(a couple of hiccups from Syria, Afghanistan and NK on the tweet headlines but nothing interesting)
-> External factors ===> - -(not worth mentioned in detail but DT mess random mood swing policies that pull and push Dollar with contradictory and impossible to achieve at the same time goals)

Total = ++++ vs - -


=> MT:
GBP:
-> Monetary Policy ==> ++Expecting very little changes in the upcoming Q from the BOE
-> Macroeconomic Factors ==> Neutral Expecting a notorious outflow of business, jobs and companies that depend on the EU market to start moving out. Inflation will affect even deeper into real wages, expecting a sharp contraction on the sectors that benefit in the short term from the devaluation. However, macro numbers should hold for the summer until negotiations show some more details.
-> Risk factors ==> - - Via geopolitical risk and slight damage in relations with Europe and Russia. Isolationism will start charging its toll.
->External factors (political interference, manipulation, etc) ==> - Depending on election results expecting the old dinosaurs to try to hijack the BOE to print money to hold the economy till negotiations take place.

Total = ++vs - - -

USD
-> Monetary Policy ===> + Expecting very little on the rates front and start shifting slowlyto the balance sheet front.
-> Macroeconomic Factors ===> ++ Expecting numbers to start softening. The longer DT takes to deliver anything, the worst the impact, the higher the risk
-> Risk Factors==> - Expecting US nationalist and risk self inflicted pain to start affecting the Dollar. If Europe holds election will see a major relocation of global money to Euro* as best place to park till US decide what is going to do but warmongering and conflict will keep those flows in check .
-> External factors ===> - - Expecting DT randomness to start affecting the core structures in the system forcing the administration to hijack the FED and to start pulling the dollar weaker to gain uncompetitive advantages in the short term.

Total = +++ vs - - -
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,091
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:30pm Apr 19, 2017 4:30pm
I love the outlook +/- charts

Thanks sisse
  • #150,092
  • Apr 19, 2017 5:24pm Apr 19, 2017 5:24pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Yesterday i bougjt at 0852 got burned. Then i entered 0839 closed 0873. Sold at 0875 0888 and 0894 now holding. Dont have Sl or tp.
burned? i wouldn't have put stops more than a few pips there for st or 1.0792 for 111.14..

atm i am long... i longed 08.30 and 2 below. and another today 08.76.. that london roll was bullish to me.. i placed reasons step by step. and the probable retrace to 087x after 0917... that's all i can do,,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,093
  • Apr 19, 2017 5:29pm Apr 19, 2017 5:29pm
Quoting el_duende
Whats also interesting is one of Trumps first actions as president was to sanction and advance new USA oil pipelines to be built. An executive order was signed for this in January reversing what the Obama administration had vetoed. Oil producers in Canada and North Dakota are expected to benefit from a quicker route for crude oil to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. But going ahead with the pipelines would mark a bitter defeat for Native American tribes and climate activists, who successfully blocked the projects earlier and vowed to fight the decisions...
did he mention the american steel to be used is russian steel?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,094
  • Apr 19, 2017 8:03pm Apr 19, 2017 8:03pm
thinking uj may be setting up 0920/0945 ish high.. then possible .0874 once again b4 lift. even b4 that.. atm its at 0894.. and 0881 will be hit b4 0920/0945 (thinking)
2 different moves within a move
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,095
  • Apr 19, 2017 8:37pm Apr 19, 2017 8:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} burned? i wouldn't have put stops more than a few pips there for st or 1.0792 for 111.14.. atm i am long... i longed 08.30 and 2 below. and another today 08.76.. that london roll was bullish to me.. i placed reasons step by step. and the probable retrace to 087x after 0917... that's all i can do,,
Stopped out at 0842.
  • #150,096
  • Apr 19, 2017 8:51pm Apr 19, 2017 8:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
thinking uj may be setting up 0920/0945 ish high.. then possible .0874 once again b4 lift. even b4 that.. atm its at 0894.. and 0881 will be hit b4 0920/0945 (thinking) 2 different moves within a move
I see 0921/094x. But the drop seems to be in the area of 0830 / 0840 ish. Just saying.
  • #150,097
  • Apr 19, 2017 9:06pm Apr 19, 2017 9:06pm
Quoting Deitreider
{quote}I must admit I don't still understand what "roll" means. I'm guessing it's different than rollover.
Oh, now I get it - "roll" means daily close.
  • #150,098
  • Edited 9:28pm Apr 19, 2017 9:16pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} I see 0921/094x. But the drop seems to be in the area of 0830 / 0840 ish. Just saying.
noted.. but st 0907 is R (day imfuo)... so a retrace to 0874 is probably needed after a hh above 0917.. but this will mean little of nothing when 111.14 starts pulling.. your above the week after being below, the days are closing higher so far after. that's not a bearish sign. make that 0917+ now.. and 110.xx opens on st chart.. its getting close to 111.14 norm

a london x2 move places 0946 as potential R area.. looking to the left has 0938 as a high.. london x2 with some R to the left.. some retrace probably there. i just dont know if it could get below 0907 to reach norm at 0874 once more before going to 110.xx or 111.14
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,099
  • Apr 19, 2017 9:34pm Apr 19, 2017 9:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} noted.. but st 0907 is R (day imfuo)... so a retrace to 0874 is probably needed after a hh above 0917.. but this will mean little of nothing when 111.14 starts pulling.. your above the week after being below, the days are closing higher so far after. that's not a bearish sign. make that 0917+ now.. and 110.xx opens on st chart.. its getting close to 111.14 norm a london x2 move places 0946 as potential R area.. looking to the left has 0938 as a high.. london x2 with some R to the left.. some retrace probably there. i just dont know if it...
on this note.. a HH above 0917, may be forced to retrace to 0907 with some support there. but its normal to go to 0874 once more b4 110.0x .. from 1.0874/1.081x low, (norm) the gate is opened for 110.0x or 111.14 norm b4 bear drop. above 111.14 we have R at 111.49 and 111.62.. give or take a few.. a better (re-load) short probably waits here
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,100
  • Edited 9:48pm Apr 19, 2017 9:37pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
thinking uj may be setting up 0920/0945 ish high.. then possible .0874 once again b4 lift. even b4 that.. atm its at 0894.. and 0881 will be hit b4 0920/0945 (thinking) 2 different moves within a move
on the blue.. 0881 may launch this micro to a +0917 hh, it's yet to entertain 0881 in the micro tf.. 5 min chart..

in 45 min 109.07 may b important.. strong bulls will close above.. they may sleep after like after sex...
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