The Really Useless Thread

uj closed above the 0873.. to me its more bullish now.. but a dip to 108.74/5 is not unexpected.. we can use 109.07 now

gator,

Price def responded there; but, why? And, is this a place where price goes back to retest the highs?

the h closed below that 109.07 at 109.06.. it makes 108.74 a better shot.. added to what i posted earlier.. but once there.. even if lower.. its probably bullish above 0856 today.. once 0874/75 is reached.. getting back above 109.07 with close is probably bullish continuing.
on a larger scale above 1.0801 is bullish to me toward 111.14 norm.. the same as last week.. once to 111.14/6x.. its time to look for shorts again in continuation.. above needs a new look.. i keep in mind 68.xx was missed years ago

i bought that touch

hopefully uj rises now and eu falls some

tp time for st shorts at 08.74/5

std.. later

Is selling GBP/JPY targeting under 139 a good idea?

About Fr elections, nothing really new in the polls today, consolidation confirmed. Particularly interesting & relevant, the poll from Ipsos/Cevipof as it has been made using a very big sample (as a consequence, their max margin error is below 1%).

BVA : Macron 24% , Le Pen 23%, Fillon 19%, Melenchon 19%
Ifop : Macron 23,5% , Le Pen 22,5%, Fillon 19,5%, Melenchon 18,5%
OpinionWay : Macron 23%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20%, Melenchon 19%
Ipsos/Cevipof: Macron 23%, Le Pen 22,5%, Fillon 19,5%, Melenchon 19%

Macron hold the lead in nearly all polls for a couple of days now. And it doesn't seem stupid to say Melenchon has lost momentum and Fillon looks stuck and doesn't seem to be able to move fwd. A gap of 3 points represents between 1,000,000 and 1,200,000 votes and we are 4 days before the vote so it will be a very tough challenge for Melenchon and/or Fillon to make it. There are already gossips that some in Fillons team are resigned and estimate their chances to make it below 20%, others below 10%. Medias and polls organisations are still very cautious ("everything can happen") - which is very good to keep the pressure on people and motivate them to go to vote - but clearly now, if polls are accurate, Fillon or Melenchon to the second round would be a surprise.
For the second round, in all configurations, Macron would win easily as the hardest one versus Melenchon has become easy (worst poll forecast a victory by 59/41 whereas it was 53/47 last week). I guess we will have a very sharp move to the top of the ST range if Macron qualifies to the run-off on Sunday.

Anyone knows what's the deal with oil?

If i was to trade gbpyen, i would first wait to see if it would make a run for 139.67.
then 1 would sell it tp 138.78 and 138.42. I'll sell it either from 139.60. With a 20 pip Sl. Or from 139.00 with same 20 pips sl. 139.91 also a good place to sell from.

Take this trade at current price tp 138.55

Yesterday i bougjt at 0852 got burned. Then i entered 0839 closed 0873. Sold at 0875 0888 and 0894 now holding. Dont have Sl or tp.

Sisse was discussing the hedges and protections involved with this risk event here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...91#post9763991

Is it sensible to think round one results reaction will be tempered or even driven by the unwinding of these to either side? Or only if round one results make round two 99% predictable (with a Macron landslide for instance) or thirdly the unwinding of hedges to either side won't be a factor until the election is a done deal after round two?
Maybe I am misunderstanding the way this works or putting too much weight on it but id like to get a better feel for it to gauge what the reactions may look like.

Any idea why OIL was sharply sold? is it because War Risk faded? normal retracement? thanks in advance!

If u r in, mr 3 1/2, watch the pa at 138.83. If it breaks and sustain you can look at 138.10 as well.

Really need to break 0869/55. Then just slide to 107.77.....hehehe

May Expiries tomorrow?

For last 3 years it has been agreed by oil producing nations there has been an oversupply of oil which has caused oil prices to crash. The lower oil revenues for many countries is having a big impact, the Middle Eastern ones especially not happy.

OPEC and many non member countries all agreed to significantly reduce oil production for 6 months. The idea was that by reducing supply it would force price up to a target of $60.

However recent figures show there is still a large surplus of oil in the world and to compound matters the USA have decided to increase their own oil production making the oversupply worse. USA doing the opposite of everyone else

May contracts expire tomorrow which is why there has been a dump as traders are worried this oil price is not sustainable with the over supply.

Thats how I grasp it anyway )

Markets feeling heavy this week. Expecting a good round of numbers on the close to form a short term floor until further data otherwise we will keep extending the lows on inertia in US equites.

Highlights come from the sharp selloff in Oil (stopped out in all remaining positions here) and now will need more than a warmongering tweet from the US to push upward.

On the Fx board, inflation spreading wider in the UK and April officially has hit in the pockets in a multiyear impact in real wages. We have crossed the threshold of no return in RMT with odd hitting over 65% chances of hikes in Sterling* unlocking further opportunities to load/reload short and mid term positions especially in GU.

sisse