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  • #149,981
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:04pm Apr 18, 2017 4:04pm
EU Daily showing Confirmed Break of 2 Swing Highs. So in my rookie mind I guess we're ST bullish. I will be looking for long opportunities at that trendline or in the Support Zone. Sorry for the big sized image. How do you guys/girls post a large image, but have it appear smaller and clickable?
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  • #149,982
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:15pm Apr 18, 2017 4:15pm
Quoting Deitreider
EU Daily showing Confirmed Break of 2 Swing Highs. So in my rookie mind I guess we're ST bullish. I will be looking for long opportunities at that trendline or in the Support Zone. Sorry for the big sized image. How do you guys/girls post a large image, but have it appear smaller and clickable? {image}
Is it the difference between copy/paste and "upload from device"? Not sure.
  • #149,983
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:28pm Apr 18, 2017 4:28pm
I'm still just trying to retain and let others ask good questions as chester123, Pharm0r, goosebone, Fahdal among others I know here.

What I am seeing is in Day chart we have broke the price range between .05xx and .070x. Close and body above .070x. But, Week and Monthly still has price contained on the consolidation so I am still Bearish.
  • #149,984
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:35pm Apr 18, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting sisse
Here is the actual mid term chart we have been tracking... {
Here is the actual mid term chart we have been tracking...

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So let me ask you. Are you sure your 'frustration' is not coming because first you are looking too close to the market for the swing you are aiming?

My 2 cents:

 

  1. You are too close to the market for the swing you are aiming
  2. Have we have any triggers whatsoever in the Euro since Dec?
  3. We are in a compression/consolidation micro range (from a mid/long perspective). It will break sooner or later that how trading works in ANY TF.

--> Can you trade the short term swings in the Euro. Yes of course you can and should !!!.

However, giving the extreme levels and MT circumstances in play the range is getting compressed (7 waves in the same area !!!) things have getting noisier (trend wise) to trade in the ST.

-> Pay attention to the ST legs we have (at least I have) trade this year live in the thread (1, 3, 4, 5* [this is also MT entry] and now the micro 6 in the ST sketch in the prev post)

--> All of them with the MT trend direction because that how one should trade. You need to position in the pullbacks!!!!. Would you get a break down right after each pullback. NO absolutely not !!!. Sometimes it takes one sometimes 7, 9 or 15 !!! and in this particular case giving the FA and levels in WE ARE TRACKING LIKE A HAWK the final trigger(s) to break or kill the trend.

-> Pay attention to the ST swing 4 and the current 6. Both were triggered, traded and called live by MAJOR NEWS FLOWS (FED HIKES and UK today) and only 1 was against the ST outlook (number 4) and was a extremely advanced trade (check backpost for details) that I wont personally recommend you to the it until you are 100% confident on the timing and positions management for ST and MT swings...

Trading is a dynamic process. You are tracking your FA direction via outlooks and direction on the MT and swinging and/or positioning in the ST for the major legs. Why you do that? not because you can't trade the 1 million inner moves from M1 to D in between those swings but because you want to ACHIEVE CONSISTENCY !!!! ...

--> It's not how many trade you can call live using whatever tools you are using but is how many consistent trades with the smaller risk and drawdown and the greater W% you can take using a standard quantifiable approach....

In a nutshell, if we were in outlook ST sell and you would have only sold you will be more than ok, and if the MT swing pans out you will be MORE than OK !!!! even if you didn't grab a penny on any of the pullbacks ....

Break the trading paradigms of thinking that missing some swings is bad, internalise that you are aiming/trading a MT swing and that takes TIME !!! (fck lots of it sometimes) and getting lost in a +/- 200 ticks 'micro' (for the MT) noisy range WONT cut it to succeed in this business ...

GL ...I hope it helps ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,985
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:55pm Apr 18, 2017 4:55pm
Yeah I'm probably edging too close.

You've demonstrated what I was saying for the short term swings, they're noisy and unpredictable, thus not much better than just technical trading EU thread style...at least from what I can tell.

that being said I haven't traded any short term, only two mid terms- the last of which we saw I evaporated 300 pips. I guess I'm edging too close due to boredom. On the bright side, guess we can reload 1.08x failure again should it pop up, lather rinse repeat.......

forever
  • #149,986
  • Edited 5:16pm Apr 18, 2017 5:02pm | Edited 5:16pm
Good to be reminded of the bigger pic (again). One day I might just be able to hang on to that perspective full time but in case I cant Ill just keep asking @sisse to rehash it every two months
Much needed reality check on the internal emotional coup (some call that impatience) Thanks @sisse as always.
Back on track. Adjusted targets back to reasonable levels.

On @Pharmors point: using the lines/"triggers" your comfortable with to find sensible areas to manage risk and entry/exit doesnt seem to conflict with the swing trading we are doing here (to me). Like im saying the methods can work in concert. Not necessary to use one at a time. (not sure if that made any sense but its the best way i got to say it so take or leave).
For instance, I'm comfortable using mofu to pick a likely place for the inside pullback to give up. I think where I stop being as comfortable with it is when Im using it to predict the next break out of range. Thats an example of how I'm looking at it for now.
  • #149,987
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:03pm Apr 18, 2017 5:03pm
Thank you Sisse for that comment.. Very reluctantly i closed that trade for small loss. You are absolutely right.. I should not have taken that trade.. I was upset that i could not get any of that BIG move up :-(
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol mate ... so you are basically? tossing a coin? ... there must be a reason...other than just a hunch, isn't, it? {quote} What are you tracking? for what instrument ? sisse
  • #149,988
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:14pm Apr 18, 2017 5:14pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Yeah I'm probably edging too close. You've demonstrated what I was saying for the short term swings, they're noisy and unpredictable
Well no not really.

All have been triggered by major movers and shakers.

Sure this last one is a political announcement that wasn't expected or from market/economic source but in general except when politicians are interfering in markets with political BS, ST and news flow swings come from predictable sources.

-> In my experience I would say +/- 80% of the ST swings are predictable and forecastable in term of timing and flows according to news/reports or macro FA in one or the other side in FX or from FA inherit reasons in all other instruments.

-> There are some good 15% that are purely for strictly TA reasons (for macro positioning/run of macro stops etc especially on portfolio relocation, Q/M rebalancing, etc ) and only +/- %5 that are absolutely random or out of the blue.

Knowing that doesn't mean that you will be right on the market side obviously ....(check the last 35 iterations/calls since last year in the Euro ...i think we have missed timing wise a handful at most)

Quote
..... guess we can reload 1.08x failure again should it pop up, lather rinse repeat.......

...and thats the sad and boring reality of being a trader ....

You will feel bored as hell most of time in the half cook failed tries (a good sign that you are getting good in this business), you will want to throw the screen out of the window when you are wrong all along and you will be the "king of the hill" when you ride the pig al the way to the end ...

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sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,989
  • Apr 18, 2017 6:23pm Apr 18, 2017 6:23pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} you will want to throw the screen out of the window when you are wrong all along and you will be the "king of the hill" when you ride the pig al the way to the end ... {image} sisse


I think for me, when we started the iterations, I went to the other extreme of trading- i stopped machine gun trading and went into set and forget mode (you've called me on this before). So, short term has not only become a taboo for me, but perhaps it's become confusing as well. There's a balance I'll have to figure out....

It's kind of a bitch being hindered by FIFO as well....mixing short term and mid term trades requires a bit more precision as you can imagine. Like I've said, if Trump nixes FIFO in his economic plan, then he'll get the nod from me....NK be damned. FIFO is trading terrorism.

Thanks for the perspective check.
  • #149,990
  • Apr 18, 2017 6:26pm Apr 18, 2017 6:26pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I think for me, when we started the iterations, I went to the other extreme of trading- i stopped machine gun trading and went into set and forget mode (you've called me on this before). So, short term has not only become a taboo for me, but perhaps it's become confusing as well. There's a balance I'll have to figure out.... It's kind of a bitch being hindered by FIFO as well....mixing short term and mid term trades requires a bit more precision as you can imagine. Like I've said, if Trump nixes FIFO in his economic...
Now that would make America great again!
  • #149,991
  • Apr 18, 2017 6:29pm Apr 18, 2017 6:29pm
Guess we are in for a pretty interesting close this week in GU as well
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  • #149,992
  • Apr 18, 2017 8:24pm Apr 18, 2017 8:24pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Guess we are in for a pretty interesting close this week in GU as well {image}
i am kinda hoping things get a little better when this fake news cycle ends. carrier was never going to korean peninsula the past week.. the president, the secretary of defence, spicer and others are full of shit.. meanwhile the carrier is on maneuvers with the australians 3k miles south. it seems president lost a carrier.

i do know a few subs are in the sea of japan.. but lately the are not allowed to say this. it was said weeks b4.. now its hush
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,993
  • Edited 8:54pm Apr 18, 2017 8:34pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am kinda hoping things get a little better when this fake news cycle ends. carrier was never going to korean peninsula the past week.. the president, the secretary of defence, spicer and others are full of shit.. meanwhile the carrier is on maneuvers with the australians 3k miles south. it seems president lost a carrier. i do know a few subs are in the sea of japan.. but lately the are not allowed to say this. it was said weeks b4.. now its hush
I'd like to see KJU go to hell. I don't think Kim will give up his lavish lifestyle at the expense of millions of peasants though- he'll likely back down. If not- his death is long overdue. The sanctions against him via UN explicitly say no test nuclear missile launches....we should have been shooting them down long ago. Now it's seen as an act of aggression by the US? Please.

There's room for Russia, China, Ukraine, US, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and all their differences.

There is no room for Kim Jong-Un nor religious zealots in my world.

Yes- agreed. I'd like to see the fake news end, thing is, main stream media has only doubled, and tripled down on fake news. Hell we see it everyday in the FF feed. I'd like to see the fake politicians ends as well....
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  • #149,994
  • Apr 18, 2017 8:34pm Apr 18, 2017 8:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am kinda hoping things get a little better when this fake news cycle ends. carrier was never going to korean peninsula the past week.. the president, the secretary of defence, spicer and others are full of shit.. meanwhile the carrier is on maneuvers with the australians 3k miles south. it seems president lost a carrier. i do know a few subs are in the sea of japan.. but lately the are not allowed to say this. it was said weeks b4.. now its hush
but who knows.. with everyone calling him a liar.. he may turn them around. the entire armada may be turned.. nice to know we still have 16th century wooden spanish ships protecting us. that damn obama. i hope trump speaks spanish..so the elcaptain will understand
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,995
  • Apr 18, 2017 8:38pm Apr 18, 2017 8:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} but who knows.. with everyone calling him a liar.. he may turn them around. the entire armada may be turned.. nice to know we still have 16th century wooden spanish ships protecting us. that damn obama. i hope trump speaks spanish..
Been holding onto this one for quite some time, 77.29 has my number
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  • #149,996
  • Apr 18, 2017 9:02pm Apr 18, 2017 9:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'd like to see KJI go to hell. I don't think Kim will give up his lavish lifestyle at the expense of millions of peasants though- he'll likely back down. If not- his death is long overdue. The sanctions against him via UN explicitly say no test nuclear missile launches....we should have been shooting them down long ago. Now it's seen as an act of aggression by the US? Please. There's room for Russia, China, Ukraine, US, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and all their differences. There is no room for Kim Jong-il nor religious zealots in my world....
i dont like the guy either.. yeah he is bad news.. on the other hand, he has a sovereign nation. we think the u.n. gives us a right to go kicking in others doors. we have done this for the past 50 yrs.. it hasn't worked out so well.
i see it like some russians going into texas and kicking in some doors late at night. some poor guy in his bed sleeping with his nude wife. maybe shoot the family dog or and slapped around some. i can promise you this much.. those texans would be killing some russians, after all is said and done. now those texans are not yet fanatical about another man seeing their wife like those m.e. guys are. the kids see this and a new generation of fighters rises. i dont want to put a blanket around a group of people. my point is kicking in some doors to take a nation. its not all it's cracked up to be. the u.s. military is still in Germany, Japan 75 + years later.. korea 60+.. Iraq, afghanistan 16 yrs and so forth.. since ww2 those other wars were mostly proxy wars.. u.s. hardware verse russian hardware. take away the russian hardware supplied. then its back to swords and arrows.. this modern white flag war ain't workin.. u have to be willing to kill dogs cats and grandma.. the u.s. spends so much fighting wars and generations later, we are still spending. rome fell for this reason.. they were spread too thin..along with a corrupt caesar ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,997
  • Apr 18, 2017 9:05pm Apr 18, 2017 9:05pm
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/31/why-b...d-tax-day.html

"Going back 20 years, April has been positive for the S&P 500 75 percent of the time, with an average gain of 2.16 percent, according to Bespoke. It's also hands down the best-performing month of the year for the Dow, going back 50 years."

Going into the real meat of earnings season next week, I will bet on a modest rise for the spoos, say 2,340 up to 2,370 into next week, That'll give Trump's Armada time to get up to the Sea of Japan and get those ratings up....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,998
  • Apr 18, 2017 9:08pm Apr 18, 2017 9:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
.. on the other hand, he has a sovereign nation. we think the u.n. gives us a right to go kicking in others doors. we have done this for the past 50 yrs.. it hasn't worked out so well. ..
“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,999
  • Apr 18, 2017 9:09pm Apr 18, 2017 9:09pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Been holding onto this one for quite some time, 77.29 has my number {image}
whats that level below 55.9%
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,000
  • Apr 18, 2017 9:14pm Apr 18, 2017 9:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare. ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
he was at a parade clapping.. we could have ended him there.. maybe the u.s. hacked the failed rocket launch.. maybe we can do it again and turn his rockets toward him.. very cost effective.. and then we play dumb and say, he did it to himself.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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