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  • #149,961
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:08pm Apr 18, 2017 1:08pm
FTSE finally moving as noted. However, I dont expect the "top" to be broken now. Guess we will need something more as it seems pretty strong lvl.

However, I gotta say I dont get the reaction by some media on the UK elections. Many saying or citing so called experts (e.g. Reuters) how its gonna help Britain - smooth brexit, strong government, FTSE definitely positive etc. How the heck can help you to loose your limited time to negotiate your survival? This is out of my IQ scope
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  • #149,962
  • Edited 1:41pm Apr 18, 2017 1:14pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting Deitreider
{quote} Am I mistaken to think that there is some relation to "Murrey Math" with some of these levels?
Pay no mind to my goofy nicknames for those levels. I just need to put something on 'em so i know what I'm looking at when zooming in for instance to a daily chart from levels I drew on the monthly. Everyone's got their lines they like. Mine are mostly ones i got from reading all gator's backposts. Murrey worked with 1/4's 1/8's 1/16's etc. I use some of those but its no focus as a method for me personally.
  • #149,963
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:15pm Apr 18, 2017 1:15pm
1.074x tested with the tick rule pending is only 1.079x if we get an exhaustion leg ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,964
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:20pm Apr 18, 2017 1:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dono,, 0737 looks better on a failed attempt to 0785.. thinking 0623 is needed b4 0785.. std bbl
i misstated here.. 0737 is still probably needed. but 0731 is the norm fitting with 0785 and 0623
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,965
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:24pm Apr 18, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} During this campaign (I know it was the same in the US & the UK), the Internet has become the kingdom of fake news, keyboard warriors & robots. Due to his position against Russia and at the center of the political chessboard, Macron was/is the main target. I had some days the feeling to attend the end of the Truth.
Also because he seems to be what stands in the way of political chaos in Europe at the moment. So he's a problem that the Kremlin would like to solve.
  • #149,966
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:32pm Apr 18, 2017 1:32pm
Quoting tuty1311
{quote} Are you still holding your usdjpy long? if so what is your plan?
yes... my plan dont change.. its weeks and months in the making. the only difference now is, i am waiting to short from higher. the one with 0851,56,66 was a 0894 scalp and possible catching the bounce. that support didnt hold now. but it did provide that one successful shot at 0794.

if you're waiting for 111.14 than its valid above 1.0800/1.0794
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,967
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:25pm Apr 18, 2017 2:25pm
Quoting chester123
FTSE finally moving as noted. However, I dont expect the "top" to be broken now. Guess we will need something more as it seems pretty strong lvl. However, I gotta say I dont get the reaction by some media on the UK elections. Many saying or citing so called experts (e.g. Reuters) how its gonna help Britain - smooth brexit, strong government, FTSE definitely positive etc. How the heck can help you to loose your limited time to negotiate your survival? This is out of my IQ scope {image}
Check the backposts before the Vote and right after for a lot of details on the shift from Sterling to Equities.

We are here: posted live on Oct 6 (check your chart, you should have a note on that capitulation move) ...

Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} .... Things are going to start drastically changing in Sterling after NFP and the current capitulation settles down. Brexit part II is in full swing. In this second stage we will start shifting from Sterling feeling the pain to UK Equities feeling the pressure....
I would recommend you to just ignore the headlines on the main UK mass media for the next 24 hours or so. They got caught with their pants down and there are just posting copy/paste the official 'press release' reasons.

Market reaction was expected since day one and confirmed the day inflation hit the fan and Art 50 was announced for March. We are officially in Brexit Chapter 2 (don't forget we just entered here a couple of weeks ago).

Shorter term what is happening is 2 things:

 

  1. One is that all the pyrrhic gains on soft Sterling are getting wiped out via inflation and now with Sterling back from extreme lows levels the pressure is going to get very heavy in UK Equities via risk and uncertainty in negotiations and more importantly RMT.
  2. The second thing is political expectations. Markets are expecting a clean sweep in the election that will leave T.May as single power without oppositions from Labour and more importantly she will be able to get ride of the extreme right lunatics in their own party that are pushing for extreme hard brexit.

What it means, its a very short term soft uncertainty until election are cleared but if they match expectations. Extreme hard brexit will give away to ??? nobody knows yet but markets expect it wont be worst (I am not convince of this myself) that the current circumstances. However, for the mid and long term the dark cloud is still there and it will be there for a long time until negotiations start taking place and the exodus of companies that depend on the EU that are currently abandoning ship will start showing some light to the public ...

....until then ...same levels, same trades, same all. Here from the yearly outlook:

Quoting sisse
{quote} +++++ Yearly overview +++++ --->Currencies Macro Expectations 2017

---> GBP ...".the lone rider"..
Currencies Macro Expectations 2017

---> GBP ...".the lone rider"

After a dramatic year with Sterling completing major mid and long term swings, the easy part of the trend is gone. Short term, inflation (which will be a big issue next few years in the UK) will keep the BOE holding horses until the Brexit storm has clear a bit. On the rest short, mid and long term is all about Brexit starting with article 50 and the political BS around it.

What is clear now is Sterling is out of the map ... and with 3/4 of the international European related banking and corporation heading out from next year, Sterling is set to become a even thiner market for trading.

The 1.21xx .... and Brexit jitters (article 50 etc). For Q2 onwards things look a lot more complicate for this year. On the one hand BOE wont allow much lower that those levels as inflation will wipe outa serious % of real wages in the average Joe and will hamper completely any positive side of a weaker Pound in the short term.

On the other hand, markets expectations are set for some kind of arrangement under the table that will satisfy all banks and large corporation while passing the cost to the rest via inflation while negotiation take place. This will guarantee the mid term wide chop zone (1.21 / 1.30 ) in Sterling for the next couple of years until the UK is completely out of the EU.

I hope it helps

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,968
  • Edited 2:40pm Apr 18, 2017 2:25pm | Edited 2:40pm
737 missed by a pip so far according to my chart. Added some seasoning to the soup here. Will close at least a portion at the lower end of the 1.06x handle if I get the chance. Might close the whole position there depending on events. Bulls make it to 1.084x first, then I eat my soup before its cooked. Will be adjusting that stop lower most likely. Stops were paid on the rest a while ago. Might be a bad time to add short with elections on the way but I like this area for a short term turn. Got to update st map and take a look with sisse's neutral short term call in mind before I can fully assess. I'll try to post that tonight.
  • #149,969
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:33pm Apr 18, 2017 2:33pm
Expecting a move down after that capitulation move up.... Shorting at current levels... Shorting Only due to the reason i mentioned not for anything else, no technical or fundamental reasons for this short....
  • #149,970
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:42pm Apr 18, 2017 2:42pm
Tracking like a hawk the final trigger huh?

Not seeing much difference between short term fundamental trading and EU thread technical trading to be honest.
  • #149,971
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:50pm Apr 18, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Thats the one, if you do one the opposite way, we are heading towards the bull norm (around our TP 2) from the last ABCD swings....one of them is lying
Goose- do you see where we bounced from? The bull norm we talked about above. So which is wrong? the bull for for 1.1317 or the bear for 0.9736?
  • #149,972
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:04pm Apr 18, 2017 3:04pm
Quoting Xxavier
Expecting a move down after that capitulation move up.... Shorting at current levels... Shorting Only due to the reason i mentioned not for anything else, no technical or fundamental reasons for this short....
lol mate ... so you are basically? tossing a coin? ... there must be a reason...other than just a hunch, isn't, it?

Quoting Pharm0r
Tracking like a hawk the final trigger huh? Not seeing much difference between short term fundamental trading and EU thread technical trading to be honest.
What are you tracking? for what instrument ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,973
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:19pm Apr 18, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol mate ... so you are basically? tossing a coin? ... there must be a reason...other than just a hunch, isn't, it? {quote} What are you tracking? for what instrument ? sisse
EU, been tracking for TP 2 @ 1.05xx, 12 days of chop wiped out in an hour is exhausting. Yes I've already been paid once from 1.08, and I'm safe (for now)- but it seems to me with the political environment we are in, trading based on short term "fundamentals" is not much more rewarding than trading technical tea leaves.
  • #149,974
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:19pm Apr 18, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Goose- do you see where we bounced from? The bull norm we talked about above. So which is wrong? the bull for for 1.1317 or the bear for 0.9736?
Yes i do now. Looks like it points to the 1.1317.
  • #149,975
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:24pm Apr 18, 2017 3:24pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Tracking like a hawk the final trigger huh? Not seeing much difference between short term fundamental trading and EU thread technical trading to be honest.
its great when they line up
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,976
  • Edited Apr 19, 2017 1:01am Apr 18, 2017 3:26pm | Edited Apr 19, 2017 1:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Check the backposts before the Vote and right after for a lot of details on the shift from Sterling to Equities. We are here: posted live on Oct 6 (check your chart, you should have a note on that capitulation move) ... {quote} I would recommend you to just ignore the headlines on the main UK mass media for the next 24 hours or so. They got caught with their pants down and there are just posting copy/paste the official 'press release' reasons. Market reaction was expected since day one and confirmed the day inflation hit the fan and Art...
perfect, I was aware of the back post so was not suprised by market reaction. only suprissed by the bul**hit in the media as it seems here in this thread we know more than all their analysts. but of course. after "all those years" that should not suprise anyone. in any case. there has already been the discussion about the bias of different media. its always the same "cui bono" thanks a lot for the macro clarification!!
  • #149,977
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:35pm Apr 18, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Goose- do you see where we bounced from? The bull norm we talked about above. So which is wrong? the bull for for 1.1317 or the bear for 0.9736?
hmm I see....let's do something quickly with a few charts before the roll as I got the feeling you are getting 'lost in translation' and a bit of perspective in the worst case scenario wont hurt...

Ok lets go...

 

  1. You are aiming/targeting to a MID TERM final swing not short term swings.

A bit of basic perspective?

=> Do you know that we have been trading a puny +/- 220 ticks for over 4 months?

Let me try to make it as visual as possible first.

Here is what you prolly looking at and I understand why you are saying what you are saying.

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=> In the early conversation we had with IMARICH1 we really went in depth in this: Scoping.

Understanding the implications in time and range is one of the hardest think in trading and IMO is one of the reason a lot of trader fail. In this particular case in the Euro we are almost only focusing a the final mid term swing since Dec (we barely have trade short term swings [a lean 3 or 4 trades ST trades in total in my case since DEC in the Euro !!!!)].

...now let me show some charts to put things in perspective ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,978
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:47pm Apr 18, 2017 3:47pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} hmm I see....lee
2. Now let me show you where we are right now in a mid term swing zoom in chart.

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You are getting frustrated/angry/impatience/etc because we haven't break as fast as you expect.

=> Let me ask you a question if I tell you the previous chart was a M5 chart would you close all after 20 minutes? because I better look in a 10 second chart for the inner moves to ride the micro tiny crumbs inside those last 4 bars?

Now let me show you what we are actually tracking ...


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,979
  • Edited 3:58pm Apr 18, 2017 3:48pm | Edited 3:58pm
I'm pretty sure this leads into the time-framed charts "this is one month spread out into daily candles etc", I get that- my moaning is exactly as you pointed out

We've been trading 220 pips for the last 4 months. I'm ready to get this camel moving. Be back soon to continue and see your posts- heading home
  • #149,980
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:02pm Apr 18, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I'm pretty sure this leads into the time-framed charts "this is one month spread out into daily candles etc", I get that- my moaning is exactly as you pointed out We've been trading 220 pips for the last 4 months. I'm ready to get this camel moving. Be back soon to continue and see your posts- heading home
Yes exactly.

Here is what we are actually trying to trade for the MID TERM LEG!!!!

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=> The principle apply for a M1 chart of for 40yr old downtrend !!!

Now here is the actual proper mid term chart update...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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