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How to tell if the Bull/Bear trend is over, without an indicator

  • #61
  • Edited 7:25pm Apr 18, 2017 2:34am | Edited 7:25pm
USD CAD 15Min
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If the market managed to 100% RT on the X bull's leg and stay below the Rest area drawn in blue.
Then we will see further downside

We treat that X as the first Bull's leg.
Expect some correction before moving high
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #62
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:06am Apr 18, 2017 5:06am
Quoting yousername
USD CAD 15Min {image} If the market managed to 100% RT on the X bull's leg and stay below the Rest area drawn in blue. Then we will see further downside
Market took off from the rest area to the top
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #63
  • Apr 18, 2017 5:27am Apr 18, 2017 5:27am
AUDUSD 4Hr

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Market managed to 100% RT on the bear's legs 1,2,3.
That creates a Bullish leg up "X".
At the moment it is in its retracement and it's around 50% already.
Expect the market to go back into the Rest Area and hopefully we should have a lift off.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #64
  • Apr 18, 2017 10:35am Apr 18, 2017 10:35am
Quoting yousername
EURUSD 4HR {image} Market has created 3 Bulls leg up and finished 100%RT on the 3X Bear's leg. As of right now we are transiting into a range market which is inside the 3rd leg making a range market. This range market could either be a bullish or bearish momentum depending on several factor. 1. It will be a BULLISH momentum emerged if the market is able to 100%RT on the "2X" Bear's leg and have rest above it and claim it as a solid ground. 2. The BEARISH momentum will be emerge if the market is able to 100%RT on 3A, 3, 2 and 1 Bull's leg and claim...
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Market took off from the rest area
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  • #65
  • Apr 18, 2017 12:21pm Apr 18, 2017 12:21pm
Quoting yousername
AUDUSD 4Hr {image} Market managed to 100% RT on the bear's legs 1,2,3. That creates a Bullish leg up "X". At the moment it is in its retracement and it's around 50% already. Expect the market to go back into the Rest Area and hopefully we should have a lift off.
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Failing going back into the Rest Area which is above the 3rd Bear's leg will result a further move down 100% RT of the previous bull's leg (X). Therefore the previous bull's leg will become a correction of the first Bear's leg. However if tomorrow we have a market move that has pricing above the last 3rd Bear's leg, further upside remain.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #66
  • Apr 18, 2017 7:18pm Apr 18, 2017 7:18pm
Quoting yousername
GOLD USD H1 TF {image} A Bullish continuation is at work. 100% RT on 3rd and 2nd bear's legs is enough signal to buy GOLD.
Gold made a new low and treat the new low is the 3rd bear's leg.
Recently market 100% RT on the 2nd and 3rd leg.
We take that 100% RT as the first Bull's leg/
At the moment, the bull's leg (X) is in correction (expect the market to correct 38.2% ~50% of its first Bull's leg) before proceeding to go higher

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Click to Enlarge Name: Gold.png Size: 28 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #67
  • Apr 18, 2017 7:22pm Apr 18, 2017 7:22pm
Thanks for your explanation.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #68
  • Apr 18, 2017 7:28pm Apr 18, 2017 7:28pm
Quoting Oddbjorg
Thanks for your explanation.
I my self still a learner too
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  • #69
  • Apr 19, 2017 3:52am Apr 19, 2017 3:52am
Strong resistance in the EURUSD Daily. Looking for 100% RT on the 2nd Bull's leg.
Do so when the shit hits the fan (EU Data looks beyond the not expected)
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  • #70
  • Edited 4:12am Apr 19, 2017 3:59am | Edited 4:12am
AUDUSD

Looking to buy when it's 100% RT on the 2nd leg and advances into the REST AREA and BEYONDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
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  • #71
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:05am Apr 19, 2017 4:05am
Quoting yousername
Strong resistance in the EURUSD Daily. Looking for 100% RT on the 2nd Bull's leg. Do so when the shit hits the fan (EU Data looks beyond the not expected) {image}
The EU data looks good. So I guess that resistance should be manageable as we had a strong bullish move yesterday.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #72
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:19am Apr 19, 2017 4:19am
A scary example of 100% RT reversal
The Bull's leg "X" broke above the 2nd and 3rd Bearish leg.
But then the X leg had a 76.4% retracement (Yes that much when you measure it using a line graph instead a candlestick chart).
Then a Bull Leg Y is born and failed to 100% RT on the Bearish leg #1
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76.4% retracement on the leg X
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  • #73
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:31am Apr 19, 2017 4:31am
GBPYJPY 4HR missed opportunity.
100% RT on 1,2,3 Bear's leg.
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This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #74
  • Apr 19, 2017 4:32am Apr 19, 2017 4:32am
Quoting yousername
GBPYJPY 4HR missed opportunity. 100% RT on 1,2,3 Bear's leg. {image}
Didn't expect a fast move like that. 0_o
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #75
  • Edited 6:23am Apr 19, 2017 5:15am | Edited 6:23am
For us who is lazy defining the BEAR/BULL leg.
I programmed a zigzag indicator (no redraw).
The zigzag is based on Stochastic.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 zigSto.mq4   2 KB | 1,090 downloads


In the indicator data window there are 2 variables
1. StochasticZigZag which indicates the price
2. Value2 indicates Oversold/Overbought of Stochastic (1 = OVERBOUGHT, -1 = OVERSOLD).
Here is a simple example on 100% RT using the zigSto indicator

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 20 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #76
  • Edited 5:46am Apr 19, 2017 5:33am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting yousername
For us who is lazy defining the BEAR/BULL leg. I programmed a zigzag indicator (no redraw). The zigzag is based on Stochastic. {file} In the indicator data window there are 2 variables 1. StochasticZigZag which indicates the price 2. Value2 indicates Oversold/Overbought of Stochastic. Here is a simple example on 100% RT using the zigSto indicator {image}
Indicator update.
Now the Stochastic in the zigzag can be configured accordingly. I use
kPeriod 14 or 5
Slowing 3 or 3
dPeriod 5 or 3
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 zigSto.mq4   3 KB | 323 downloads
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #77
  • Apr 19, 2017 5:51am Apr 19, 2017 5:51am
Quoting yousername
1. Does a 100% retracement on the 3rd leg means the trend is over?
2. Do you know any other method that tells you the trend is over?
1. IMHO it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the trend to finish.
2. I use tick volume to get an idea of activity behind the moves. A simple way of doing the same thing would be through an indicator like On Balance Volume which clearly displays changes from sell to buy pressure, i.e. a difference between a mere pullback (low pullback volume = small change of OBV) and the end of the trend (high volume of the opposite moves = divergences in OBV, movement of OBV in the opposite direction while the price is still ranging, i.e. the smart money is accumulating or distributing).

Cheers,
k
  • #78
  • Apr 19, 2017 5:59am Apr 19, 2017 5:59am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} 1. IMHO it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the trend to finish. 2. I use tick volume to get an idea of activity behind the moves. A simple way of doing the same thing would be through an indicator like On Balance Volume which clearly displays changes from sell to buy pressure, i.e. a difference between a mere pullback (low pullback volume = small change of OBV) and the end of the trend (high volume of the opposite...
Thanks for the feedback. OBV looks interesting. I can see that is very very very very usefull for divergence and convergence.
Also. that is very useful for defining the Bull/Bear legs....

Cheers
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #79
  • Apr 19, 2017 6:41am Apr 19, 2017 6:41am
GBPUSD 5MIN

Example of 100% RT Bullish Reversal using the ZigStoch indicator to define the Bear legs.
The X and Y slowly and aggresively 100% RT on each of Bear's legs.
Notice how each Bullish leg never took 100% RT on it self. That indicates a bull in charge.

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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 36 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #80
  • Apr 19, 2017 6:50am Apr 19, 2017 6:50am
AUDUSD 5MIN

Monitoring Bullish Reversal at work
If the Bull X leg got 100% retraced then, we should see movement continuation downward (But the 100% RT that I recommend is a close of a higher TF candle to avoid any whipsaw tail)

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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 33 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
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