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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,901
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:59pm Apr 17, 2017 3:59pm
Uneventful day across the board with only the US on board shaking out the weekend extreme jitters but markets starting to struggle at these levels. Highlight comes from US equities (ES/SPX for reference)triggering the traditional 'choose your poison time' for the mid term (we haven't have one since Q4 2016 !!!).

Everybody back on board from the European morning tomorrow expecting volatility to widen in the upcoming sessions.... here back on track for tomorrow with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote}....well I expect the NK showdown to blow over & US markets agree with me today with a 0.75% rise....really I don't think the Easter Bunny will stand for a big brouhaha with 5MM dead in Seoul the first week....but...also....crazy shit happens. Next week there's the potential standoff in the US Congress over the budget and a potential government shutdown. So between that and NK I am still filling cheap long vol spreads....
Neither national politics and/or government shutdown blah blah will be market moving but rather for US media and local consumption. War, French elections and tax cuts details on that order of probabilities are in play as non market events for the upcoming days in my books.... there is nothing to see on the economic and macro front for a few weeks so politicians in full control (and you know what it means...).

We have pretty much set all highs and lows (depending on instrument) of this month (and prolly of the Q as early as the next W close) already in Equities, Treasuries, Oil, Gold, Dollar and Euro. We just need to have everybody back on board to start moving ...

Let's see how it goes, but war and self-created geopolitical risk from the US still has the upper hand for a WTF moment but France will start weighting very heavy in global markets as early as tomorrow European open ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,902
  • Edited 4:20pm Apr 17, 2017 4:08pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting sisse
France will start weighting very heavy in global markets as early as tomorrow European open ... sisse
The polling Replicant just put up seems to lighten that load a tad in the extremely short term anyway. I guess on the other hand, here in the US and earlier in Britain the only polls that turned out to be useful in the end were the exit polls. Worth watching though for the daily kneejerks and for a take on expectations I suppose.
  • #149,903
  • Edited 5:21pm Apr 17, 2017 4:27pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting sisse
Let's see how it goes, but war and self-created geopolitical risk from the US still has the upper hand for a WTF moment but France will start weighting very heavy in global markets as early as tomorrow European open ... sisse
...if recent history is any guide the elections will do the opposite of the polls and there will be a btfd moment pretty much irrespective of whoever wins whatever.

re: US equities & a govt shutdown - I had to check back to 1st 2 weeks of Oct '13, when there actually was one - yep, US equities were well up. Idk anymore but the bar has been raised so far for a market slide, we will need something truly apocalyptic - superpower war would do it. Will your accounts be intact after the radioactive dust clears? Doubt it....

Anyway, Team Trump now sees what he can do without the bother of talking to Congress - move his military around and blow shit up. That plays well and helps ratings.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,904
  • Apr 17, 2017 6:30pm Apr 17, 2017 6:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
the uj is doing as i expected longer term.. in the shorter term i have a shot at 111.14 and hoping 111.6x caps it.. so far other than the drop.. the bounce is not looking very good.. that bounce in my view would happen anytime now b4 1.0794.. or 1.0801.. the reason i want to short from higher.. i may be wrong about the bounce.. we will see.. usd index (usdx) chart provided w/o candles .. shows the 100.099 area or less as a possible place for a bounce. i still expect one to 101.52.. but here too i may be wrong. the eu did reach the expected 1.0585...
uj on track
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,905
  • Apr 17, 2017 6:52pm Apr 17, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
usd index . shows the 100.099 area or less as a possible place for a bounce. i still expect one to 101.52.. with the usdx having room for 101.52.. it would force the eu lower.. its not looking like i am right atm.. but its what i see on chart.. atm level usdx 100.06.. its gotten as low as 100.01.. uj drop and dow back to Nov. 2016 levels or less is myplan.. {image}
that drop above of course is meant after that 111.14 st bounce. or at least some sort of decision to be made there. if the long term uj chart is true, it should be helped with a dow back to nov 2016 levels or less. usdx going up also should place eu dropping farther more in the expected, although it has reached its normal retrace already. discussed weeks back
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,906
  • Apr 17, 2017 7:32pm Apr 17, 2017 7:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} uj on track {image}
It seems very hard with how it's been dropping last week, nothing is impossible though.

I will be looking to short it when we reach 110.1x
  • #149,907
  • Apr 17, 2017 7:46pm Apr 17, 2017 7:46pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} It seems very hard with how it's been dropping last week, nothing is impossible though. I will be looking to short it when we reach 110.1x
uj is usually tame. it often does norm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,908
  • Apr 18, 2017 12:31am Apr 18, 2017 12:31am
If I may ask another rookie question. When we talk about the bulls or bears being in control on some specific timeframe, does that refer to the last Swing High/Low that was confirmed to be broken? From what I have read it seems to me that this is the definition of a trend change also. For example right now I'm seeing the bears in control of the EU Weekly chart because the last Confirmed break was of a Swing Low and following that we have not had a Confirmed or even Imminent Expectation break of any Swing Highs.
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  • #149,909
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:50am Apr 18, 2017 2:50am
Quoting Deitreider
If I may ask another rookie question. When we talk about the bulls or bears being in control on some specific timeframe, does that refer to the last Swing High/Low that was confirmed to be broken? From what I have read it seems to me that this is the definition of a trend change also. For example right now I'm seeing the bears in control of the EU Weekly chart because the last Confirmed break was of a Swing Low and following that we have not had a Confirmed or even Imminent Expectation break of any Swing Highs. {image}
By the method Sisse mentor us in I will take more note of how price moves to/from flip area and handle.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,910
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:09am Apr 18, 2017 3:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i need to break that high on the left side of the current candle.. if not even before testing it. 100.3x may st top it. i still have the view strictly based on pa it will go to 101.52.. this along with a uj rise may give stocks some false hope b4 a swan song using the uj as the catalyst to indicate. in my view the bounce is on schedule b4 the large drop.. {image}
definitely slowed it down atm. the test is the break or lack of one. usdx, if that low at 100. holds, it should gain some momentum. if so its already dropped to 100.20. its at 100.24.. and somewhere between 100 and 120 is where i suspect it would bounce.. its already been to 100.20, it dont have to revisit it again.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,911
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:32am Apr 18, 2017 3:32am
108.51 may be support closewise today on uj.. also smaller tf's closes may help. a long 108.66/108.51 may be backed up with 108.51 support. its worth a look.. to see if one's analysis or indis agree.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,912
  • Apr 18, 2017 3:49am Apr 18, 2017 3:49am
Quoting gatorinla
108.51 may be support closewise today on uj.. also smaller tf's closes may help. a long 108.66/108.51 may be backed up with 108.51 support. its worth a look.. to see if one's analysis or indis agree. {image}
today's london close above 1.0856 would be welcomed in a bounce. below pushes 111.14 timeline back some. 1.0856 is supportive too
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,913
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:20am Apr 18, 2017 4:20am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} By the method Sisse mentor us in I will take more note of how price moves to/from flip area and handle.
Thank You for the answer. The plotting of Tops, Flips and Bottoms that Sisse teaches is still very much a mystery to me because I can't see the lines correspond to Swing Highs/Lows very well.
  • #149,914
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:22am Apr 18, 2017 4:22am
Does any one know why there was a big up move in EURGBP that started at 4:56 EST ?
May the Forex be with you.
  • #149,915
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:25am Apr 18, 2017 4:25am
Theresa May is speaking at 11:15
  • #149,916
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:26am Apr 18, 2017 4:26am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
statment of british PM
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #149,917
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:31am Apr 18, 2017 4:31am
Quoting Hpt
statment of british PM
The mere announcement of a statement to come impacts GBP by -60 pips shows the fragility of the current situation
  • #149,918
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:38am Apr 18, 2017 4:38am
Quoting Deitreider
{quote} Thank You for the answer. The plotting of Tops, Flips and Bottoms that Sisse teaches is still very much a mystery to me because I can't see the lines correspond to Swing Highs/Lows very well.
The swing high / low close on weekly often correspond with a handle. Look at a weekly chart and look for the open close levels there. You will often find valid handles there.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,919
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:41am Apr 18, 2017 4:41am
Quoting Hpt
statment of british PM

All sorts of rumours circulating (snap election, resignation due to ill health, direct rule for Northern Ireland,,,), due to the unusual nature of announcing an unscheduled news conference.
  • #149,920
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:47am Apr 18, 2017 4:47am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} The swing high / low close on weekly often correspond with a handle. Look at a weekly chart and look for the open close levels there. You will often find valid handles there.
Thanks for the tips
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