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5 years and still no strategy

  • #181
  • Apr 17, 2017 7:02pm Apr 17, 2017 7:02pm
Albert Einstein: "It's not because am so smart. I stay with problems long enough"
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.8%
  • #182
  • Apr 17, 2017 8:44pm Apr 17, 2017 8:44pm
Quoting thodie
{quote} my hypothesis is, someone design a system in the past an want it to trade in the future (automated) it works good in the beginning, but the further the market morphs away from the past the "worst" the results get.
That's why I do not believe that robots work because if the market could be modeled someone would have done it. And eventually the returns could not be kept secret.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #183
  • Apr 17, 2017 8:47pm Apr 17, 2017 8:47pm
Quoting MissPIPa
I have been trying to learn to trade for 5 years as well, I actually gave up for a few years out of frustration but for last few weeks have started getting back into it again. Over the last few weeks I have been trying to identify why nothing has worked for me and I have learned a lot, Mostly about myself. My advice would be is have a break for a little while as you may have some bad habbits, I certainly did. Once you feel less stressed about trading come back and start reviewing all the strategy's again and try to identify why its not working....
My point of view, trading is quite hard that is reason not much people can trade for living compare with open a business ( a lot of people can do). In order to successful in trading we have to become master skill all below:

Market analysis ( fundamental & technical analysis skill)
Entry & Exit Skill
Discipline Skill
Risk management skill
Trade management skill
psychological management skill

Therefore, If you trade for fun in order to develop above skills you can learn month of month and year of year but If you think you can trade to make money around 95% will fail. If you treat Forex trading like music or painting etc.. what you have hobbies or passionate, so you can go long term with them otherwise you will quit soon.

I currently want to move full time trading but I know for sure it is hard if I only depend on trading is source of income.
  • #184
  • Apr 17, 2017 9:18pm Apr 17, 2017 9:18pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's why I do not believe that robots work because if the market could be modeled someone would have done it. And eventually the returns could not be kept secret.

Would it be safe to say, that the system works now, but fails later only because the programmer didn't take into account ALL of the "variables"? I'm really into social trading, but I would assume that many people don't factor in ALL the varies, which is why you can see such good performance followed by one bad trade that either pops the account, or leads to bias trades which ends up blowing the account after sometime.
  • #185
  • Apr 17, 2017 9:44pm Apr 17, 2017 9:44pm
Take a look at this trade explorer I just found.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bias.PNG Size: 16 KB


Most would say that the "system" is horrible, but I would take a stab and say it is the money management. I would say that because his floating loss more than 20x larger than his avg win. The trader might be a "no stop loss trader", or he might of moved his stop loss while it approached, but is it fair to say that the "system" doesn't work? O.P. what do you think?
  • #186
  • Apr 17, 2017 9:49pm Apr 17, 2017 9:49pm
Quoting HowMany7z
{quote} Would it be safe to say, that the system works now, but fails later only because the programmer didn't take into account ALL of the "variables"? I'm really into social trading, but I would assume that many people don't factor in ALL the varies, which is why you can see such good performance followed by one bad trade that either pops the account, or leads to bias trades which ends up blowing the account after sometime.
It's not that the algo traders do not take in the variables, they may catch even all of the variables that historically exist at that given time. The problem is that historical variables can change. Humans are only predictable to a degree and we can never know every agenda and how much monetary firepower they can muster to further that agenda. If you do not know the story of When Genius Failed, you definitely should YouTube that. Another more mundane example is when the year 2014 brought a steady and relentless decline in the Euro, for most of the year. It was nearly as bad as 2008. All the RTM traders on here were crushed as the Euro broke level after level of support. So the trick is a trend trading algo does not know how long the market will range or what kind of range it will be. The RTM algos do not know when the market will trend and long or steep the trend will last. Most pro traders are not one in one out traders, they carry some DD. The trick is to manage the DD. As a retailer you must trade very small or the brokers will take your money, two percent per trade at a time.

Quoting HowMany7z
Take a look at this trade explorer I just found. {image} Most would say that the "system" is horrible, but I would take a stab and say it is the money management. I would say that because his floating loss more than 20x larger than his avg win. The trader might be a "no stop loss trader", or he might of moved his stop loss while it approached, but is it fair to say that the "system" doesn't work? O.P. what do you think?
This speaks to position sizing to me. For me, crush depth for my maximum position to reach a margin call is 25000 pips, and that is if I went in all at once, which I never do.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #187
  • Apr 17, 2017 11:02pm Apr 17, 2017 11:02pm
React to what is happening now. Anyone can identify S/R, Trend lines, Moving Average bounce, ect...
But these alone are not an edge, they are reference points. Being able to see participation at these
reference points can provide the edge.

You want to recognize where the real size is trading. Where are the spoofs? Where are the orders
absorbing? Are sellers aggressively hitting bids? Are buyers aggressively hitting offers? Does it look
like a bunch of programs are trying to game these prices or does it look like Goldman is crushing it
and hitting every order in site?

Stop trading blind.
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  • #188
  • Apr 17, 2017 11:40pm Apr 17, 2017 11:40pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's why I do not believe that robots work because if the market could be modeled someone would have done it. And eventually the returns could not be kept secret.
Successful Robots are not well known because those who've created one with great success will not share with others. A successful EA is based on sound money management positions without the Grid and Martingale BS.
  • #189
  • Apr 17, 2017 11:49pm Apr 17, 2017 11:49pm
Quoting lKeithStone
React to what is happening now. Anyone can identify S/R, Trend lines, Moving Average bounce, ect... But these alone are not an edge, they are reference points. Being able to see participation at these reference points can provide the edge. You want to recognize where the real size is trading. Where are the spoofs? Where are the orders absorbing? Are sellers aggressively hitting bids? Are buyers aggressively hitting offers? Does it look like a bunch of programs are trying to game these prices or does it look like Goldman is crushing it and hitting...
Keith,

Is it order flow you are talking about? Can one apply the concepts to larger Time Frames?

Thanks
  • #190
  • Apr 18, 2017 12:09am Apr 18, 2017 12:09am
The secret to forex that nobody wants to do !
Attached Image

People who succeed at the highest level are not lucky; theyre doing something differently than everyone else.

To get what only the 5 percent have, you need to be willing to do what only the 5 percent do.And it is not
what people are talking about here ,here for the most case it is the blind leading the blind,people speaking
without a single lick of evidence to back up what they say,GW.
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
  • #191
  • Apr 18, 2017 12:20am Apr 18, 2017 12:20am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Keith, Is it order flow you are talking about? Can one apply the concepts to larger Time Frames? Thanks
Yes.

It's difficult for me to give you advice on larger time frames since I'm only looking for 3-5 ticks, unless bids/offers are getting crushed. You could use order flow to refine your entries and reduce risk.
  • #192
  • Apr 18, 2017 12:56am Apr 18, 2017 12:56am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It's not that the algo traders do not take in the variables, they may catch even all of the variables that historically exist at that given time. The problem is that historical variables can change. Humans are only predictable to a degree and we can never know every agenda and how much monetary firepower they can muster to further that agenda. If you do not know the story of When Genius Failed, you definitely should YouTube that. Another more mundane example is when the year 2014 brought a steady and relentless decline in the Euro, for most...
Thank you very much for sharing your insight with me. I personally recall that move of 2014, in which the President of the ECB stated "The price of EU was too high" and that started the drop from 1.3999 to the low which we have been trading the last 6+ months. I can't comment on how "trend traders" think, because I myself am not one. Yet, I believe that the market will move "away" from the masses. Although EU did move down for that entire year, right after that speech by Mario, the reality is it was a very drawn out process, much like the run down from 1.13 to where we are now.
I am not sure why you say that "as a retail trader you must trade very small or the brokers will take your money", but I most certainly would like to know why you think that. As for the equity curve which I have posted, that trader actually stuck to the 2% rule, but not adding on to his loss, but RISKING 2% of your account and allowing that to turn into a draw down of anything more than 2% seems rather bias. Do you personally know anyone who only risks 2% of their account at a time? If so, would you please post their trade explorer in order for me to scan their stats please?

Quoting aaven
{quote} Keith, Is it order flow you are talking about? Can one apply the concepts to larger Time Frames? Thanks
You seem to have asked a question which reveals something very important. If "order flow" creates the market, how can the higher tf actually influence what is occurring tick by tick? I guess it is like asking what came first "The chicken or the egg"? Based on your answer, it says a lot about how you perceived life, or in our case, the tf you trade determines how you perceive the market to work. Clearly, their was a "tick" before their was "historical data" of your favorite currency. A group of "ticks" creates what we see on the 1 minute chart, 5 1 min candles creates 1 5 min candle. What am I getting to? Well, the tick chart is the key to understand everything which comes after it.
I personally don't see how having "market depth" in a "decentralized market" can give you any sort of edge, when the stats you see on the "market depth" can change from broker to broker, thus not making it reliable and most importantly, incoming volume is the MOST IMPORTANT thing in Forex. If you have 0 buyers and 0 sellers, the price CAN'T MOVE! Which means what happened 1 hour ago, or even 1 minute ago, has nothing to do with what will happen on the very next tick.
  • #193
  • Apr 18, 2017 1:46am Apr 18, 2017 1:46am
Thanks for this valuable post CP... we always learn something from your posts....

You mentioned about a single variable for rice but there can be multiple values for that variable as there can be more than one exporters of rice with different seasons, rite... just a doubt.... please ignore me if it is a dumb question....


Quoting CrucialPoint
This is how you die (in trading) Watch each video carefully as I point out a few things: 1. The Amateur's Personal Experience https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5-ZDDwRevs 95% of the information you will get from FF and anywhere else are these type of information. And the reality is, you will only last 10-30min swimming like this in open water (even in a swimming pool). And then you die!!! In trading, you may last 1-3 months of profit and then you die!!! Well, you can rest assure that it is not your fault... You don't know what...
  • #194
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:28am Apr 18, 2017 2:28am
Quoting CrucialPoint
This is how you die (in trading) Watch each video carefully as I point out a few things: 1. The Amateur's Personal Experience https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5-ZDDwRevs 95% of the information you will get from FF and anywhere else are these type of information. And the reality is, you will only last 10-30min swimming like this in open water (even in a swimming pool). And then you die!!! In trading, you may last 1-3 months of profit and then you die!!! Well, you can rest assure that it is not your fault... You don't know what...

So would it be safe to say, based on the information you posted, that we are wasting our time in forex?
  • #195
  • Apr 18, 2017 2:50am Apr 18, 2017 2:50am
Quoting TGS
{quote} I wished there were more examples but here is one evidence running longer than 1 year that such a thing is possible for retail traders.
Here you have more examples:

https://www.darwinex.com/all-darwins

Those are just some traders from the broker I use, there are a lot more and better traders out there (Trust me ) .
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #196
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:36am Apr 18, 2017 4:36am
Quoting Ghost Walker
{quote} Learn to read dood ,you might discover and learn something instead of trying to give advice to somebody who has passed your poor achievements,proof is a wonderful thing,joy to ya friend,GW.
My eyes are perfect and I have read through your B.S, you posted a link to a pic which shows a pearl in a seashell trying to be philosophical, well Einstein no one f**king asked for your mind games, offer a solution or quit showing your crude behaviour, people like you have turned FF into a circus where in exchange for simple guidance a cryptic message is posted.

P.S You don't know about my achievements and a man that assumes about another man exposes his own stupidity. My SL technique works so does my BE, have a good day.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #197
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:48am Apr 18, 2017 4:48am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Hi there

Can't help but add my 50c.

You say you know price action, trend, risk management but have no strategy and without success. Then I would say you don't, I mean that in the nicest way, but you don't. You can't know all those things and not have a strategy, can you?

Is it time to leave it, that is for you to decide but before you do. You know everything that hasn't worked for you so thats a start (assuming here that you had written trading plans for those failed strategies and applied them correctly and didn't take none system trades along the way - thats a big assumption).

There must be some things that you suspect work? There are things you suspect don't work?

Time to hit the restart button. Pick a few indis, not because I am an indi fan but things are either yes/no for a trade and you can back test. It can be as simple as a couple of ma's on your TF of choice. Start with the end in sight, pick a day like today where there were some good moves, what did the charts/candles/indi's look like. Put a strategy together and back test in your trading TF where history shows from D charts 20 days in each of uptrend, downtrend and sideways markets. Lots of work yes, will it give you a fighting chance to make it, yes.

Consider perhaps a few things that you perhaps didn't previously, perhaps focus on currencies where you have some strength/weakness across a broader spectrum e.g. is yen strong or weak. Personally I had tested the awesome oscillator and rejected but now love it.

Heres a start gbpjpy, sideways then nice fall. More coming.
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  • #198
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:52am Apr 18, 2017 4:52am
Adding 1 ma (this is a 20lwma but doesn't really matter) can sort some issues, buy above/sell below. The yellow + green lines show Frankie + London opens.
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  • #199
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:56am Apr 18, 2017 4:56am
Quoting Vantage
Adding 1 ma (this is a 20lwma but doesn't really matter) can sort some issues, buy above/sell below. The yellow + green lines show Frankie + London opens. {image}
yuck
Time hides Nothing
  • #200
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:58am Apr 18, 2017 4:58am
Go berserk with the indis, AO must agree with trade direction. The white arrows are based on price action and candle closes compared to previous two candles.
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