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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,881
  • Apr 16, 2017 5:14pm Apr 16, 2017 5:14pm
Quoting cashfactor
{quote} I agree. I have been watching for some time ....to go long. It started to break out last week (seeH4) then stalled, with the increased world risk. Hoping to start to scale in this week with TP1 a @ .723x
Will try to get in with positions at small pullbacks . Currently looking at 6980 , Will possible lift off a little bit before .7230 to lock in BE.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,882
  • Apr 16, 2017 5:19pm Apr 16, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting cashfactor
{quote} I agree. I have been watching for some time ....to go long. It started to break out last week (seeH4) then stalled, with the increased world risk. Hoping to start to scale in this week with TP1 a @ .723x
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  • #149,883
  • Apr 16, 2017 6:02pm Apr 16, 2017 6:02pm
Checking quickly the open this weekend for obvious reasons....

Good news from Japan for the mid and ling term breaking the protectionism BS and unlocking a window to liberate the extreme dependency of the US in foreign and trade policy. Important news that will have an impact once we clear the short term jitters from N.K.

No Europe today, and market is heavily unbalance to risk off. Nothing but dick swinging from both NK and DT this weekend but the damage is done in terms of market confidence. US single handle has put an end on the happy times where everything was coming up roses and all for political reasons.

Equities will start struggling to rally without pullbacks as they have been in the last 4 or 5 years. Expecting expansion in volatility for the foreseeable future...we maybe witnessing the sad but textbook definition of 'shooting oneself in the foot' from the US ...

All risk assets are on the bid, and without Europe I wouldn't be surprise neither Gold, Yen and Euro hold the Asian session without a shake out. Whatever the case, as we discussed since last week, there is nothing in the macro front with only RISK in play. So just politicians in full control with French elections entering in centre stage and the usual hyperactive DT tweeter account that can trigger a major war/conflict/faux pas any minute.

For 3er week in a row ....I smell blood and lots of it in the markets ...

GL all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,884
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:06pm Apr 16, 2017 7:06pm
But with this development, N.K. will not be a short term jitter -

China, Russia Dispatch Naval Vessels To Track USS Carl Vinson To Korean Peninsula
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

April 25 - North Korea Military Foundation Day could be THE DAY.
  • #149,885
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:42pm Apr 16, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting AstroStudent
But with this development, N.K. will not be a short term jitter - China, Russia Dispatch Naval Vessels To Track USS Carl Vinson To Korean Peninsula http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29 April 25 - North Korea Military Foundation Day could be THE DAY.
they could have taken kim out on his bd.. plus had much of the military in open sights and some hardware..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,886
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:49pm Apr 16, 2017 7:49pm
i just bought uj 1.0830, doing it 2/3 more times till 1.0802 stops 1.0793,, looking to tp 111.14/6x and enter short there..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,887
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:12pm Apr 16, 2017 8:12pm
std.. check back later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,888
  • Edited 9:22pm Apr 16, 2017 8:12pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
i just bought uj 1.0830, doing it 2/3 more times till 1.0802 stops 1.0793,, looking to tp 111.14/6x and enter short there..
with risk hanging at the moment? is this based purely on your mufo, TA?

Ok, risk aside. Your target will be hit and might go further up, 2 days after USA TAX DAY.
  • #149,889
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:57pm Apr 16, 2017 9:57pm
Quoting sisse
....I smell blood and lots of it in the markets ... GL all... sisse
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/w...ed-north-korea

Note, the below is from 2003....change US SoS from Powell to Tillerson and it could be current.

http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle1595.htm

...estimates I have seen for casualties in the first week of this war range from 300k to 5MM+
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,890
  • Apr 17, 2017 12:43am Apr 17, 2017 12:43am
From Wikipedia....

The DEFense readiness CONdition (DEFCON) is an alert state used by the United States Armed Forces.[1]
The DEFCON system was developed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) and unified and specified combatant commands.[2] It prescribes five graduated levels of readiness (or states of alert) for the U.S. military. It increases in severity from DEFCON 5 (least severe) to DEFCON 1 (most severe) to match varying military situations.[1]
DEFCONs are a subsystem of a series of Alert Conditions, or LERTCONs, which also include Emergency Conditions (EMERGCONs).[3]

Contents
[hide]

  1. 1Operations
  2. 2Levels
  3. 3History

    1. 3.1DEFCON 2

      1. 3.1.1Cuban Missile Crisis
      2. 3.1.2The Gulf War

    2. 3.2DEFCON 3

      1. 3.2.1Yom Kippur War
      2. 3.2.2Operation Paul Bunyan
      3. 3.2.3September 11 attacks

The definitions below are broad and specific branches of the armed forces, and those in specific areas, may be at different levels.

Readiness condition Exercise term Description Readiness
DEFCON 1COCKED PISTOL Nuclear war is imminent Maximum readiness
DEFCON 2FAST PACE Next step to nuclear war Armed Forces ready to deploy and engage in less than 6 hours
DEFCON 3ROUND HOUSE Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes
DEFCON 4DOUBLE TAKE Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures Above normal readiness
DEFCON 5FADE OUT Lowest state of readiness Normal readiness


So thoughts on where we are now? DEFCON 3 approaching DEFCON 2? And an obvious difference to previous occasions of high alert is that we didn't have an inexperienced emotionally unstable president, with an equally inexperienced staff. Which will be a factor our adversaries have to consider in determining their levels of alert, potentially escalating the whole shit fight. Is anybody here glad we have Trump holding the joy sticks?

  • #149,891
  • Apr 17, 2017 1:08am Apr 17, 2017 1:08am
Quoting Blackopal
So thoughts on where we are now?
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,892
  • Apr 17, 2017 1:55am Apr 17, 2017 1:55am
Yen completing 108.4x. In a rather unconventional environment, Yen in full control of the FX board in the next few sessions. Losing foot (108.4x for ref) for the Asian close will be telling and will unlock lots of air below but today there is no Europe on board so not much to see till NY.

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{... ...estimates I have seen for casualties in the first week of this war...
Markets are getting tired of DT not only because he is talking about everything else except the economic policy plan but he's triggering major risk flows with his random bullying foreign policy.

We are crossing the point of no return for a very tradable pullback in US equities. We are set to wipe the honeymoon rally (pretty much expected since day one as it was made on air, political promises and the average Joe investor jumping the gun on the media frenzy) and back to exactly square one (S&P 2180.xx for reference with only one intermediate stop @2270/5) when he got elected.

There will have the market deadline for DT to walk the talk in the economic front or else...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,893
  • Apr 17, 2017 9:59am Apr 17, 2017 9:59am
the uj is doing as i expected longer term.. in the shorter term i have a shot at 111.14 and hoping 111.6x caps it.. so far other than the drop.. the bounce is not looking very good.. that bounce in my view would happen anytime now b4 1.0794.. or 1.0801.. the reason i want to short from higher.. i may be wrong about the bounce.. we will see..

usd index (usdx) chart provided w/o candles .. shows the 100.099 area or less as a possible place for a bounce. i still expect one to 101.52.. but here too i may be wrong. the eu did reach the expected 1.0585 but with the usdx having room for 101.52.. it would force the eu lower.. its not looking like i am right atm.. but its what i see on chart.. atm level usdx 100.06.. its gotten as low as 100.01.. uj drop and dow back to Nov. 2016 levels or less is myplan..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,894
  • Apr 17, 2017 11:59am Apr 17, 2017 11:59am
3 new polls today.

Elabe : Macron 24%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon 19,5%, Melenchon 18%
The 6 possible second rounds are tested too :
http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/sonda...e-1144421.html

Ifop : Macron 23%, Le Pen 22,5%, Fillon 19,5%, Melenchon 19,5%
http://www.parismatch.com/La-preside...-en-temps-reel

OpinionWay : Macron 22%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 21%, Melenchon 18%
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/pr...le-2062937.php

Still tight but the two polls from Ifop & Elabe seem to confirm the last poll published on friday by Odoxa, that Macron has stopped falling and is now recovering. There are 3 to 5 points now between Melenchon and the second round.
  • #149,895
  • Apr 17, 2017 1:04pm Apr 17, 2017 1:04pm
Eu Still chopping around with nothing new at all ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,896
  • Apr 17, 2017 1:54pm Apr 17, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
the uj is doing as i expected longer term.. in the shorter term i have a shot at 111.14 and hoping 111.6x caps it.. so far other than the drop.. the bounce is not looking very good.. that bounce in my view would happen anytime now b4 1.0794.. or 1.0801.. the reason i want to short from higher.. i may be wrong about the bounce.. we will see.. usd index (usdx) chart provided w/o candles .. shows the 100.099 area or less as a possible place for a bounce. i still expect one to 101.52.. but here too i may be wrong. the eu did reach the expected 1.0585...
i need to break that high on the left side of the current candle.. if not even before testing it. 100.3x may st top it. i still have the view strictly based on pa it will go to 101.52.. this along with a uj rise may give stocks some false hope b4 a swan song using the uj as the catalyst to indicate. in my view the bounce is on schedule b4 the large drop..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,897
  • Apr 17, 2017 1:59pm Apr 17, 2017 1:59pm
GBP/JPY hits 137 by end of US session...possible? All yen pairs just wanna gain.
  • #149,898
  • Apr 17, 2017 2:32pm Apr 17, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
Markets are getting tired of DT not only because he is talking about everything else except the economic policy plan but he's triggering major risk flows with his random bullying foreign policy. We are crossing the point of no return for a very tradable pullback in US equities.
....well I expect the NK showdown to blow over & US markets agree with me today with a 0.75% rise....really I don't think the Easter Bunny will stand for a big brouhaha with 5MM dead in Seoul the first week....but...also....crazy shit happens. Next week there's the potential standoff in the US Congress over the budget and a potential government shutdown. So between that and NK I am still filling cheap long vol spreads....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,899
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:03pm Apr 17, 2017 3:03pm
an.. {image}[/quote]
Shouldnt be even thinking about a long before 109.60 .??but it seems to be going in that direction......just sayin....!!!
  • #149,900
  • Apr 17, 2017 3:06pm Apr 17, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting ThreeHalf
GBP/JPY hits 137 by end of US session...possible? All yen pairs just wanna gain.
Talk about hitting 137.33 and then 137.9x.
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