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5 years and still no strategy

  • #61
  • Apr 15, 2017 9:47am Apr 15, 2017 9:47am
Quoting sevan62
{quote} It is greed buddy. One of our biggest trading enemy. 15% per day probably means that you were greatly exceeding MM rules what you have written here yourself "risk not more than 2% in one trade" or your were extremly lucky to trade without any loss making 5-7 deals per day which is almost impossible. {quote} I can confirm that japanese candlesticks and their patterns work but they are not enough to build a strong consistently winning strategy based on them only. You may greatly increase your win rate ratio if you add one or two confirmations....
Yeah but you can't just assume your three indicators are providing a winning signal independently of each other.

As you know from having used various indicators, they typically start providing a signal around the same time. In other words, there's association and therefore not independent.

For starters, you've got to use the chain rule to compute that joint probability.
  • #62
  • Apr 15, 2017 11:07am Apr 15, 2017 11:07am
thanks for all replies I agree with some things but I won't give up on 1:2 ratio - it saves your ass during a series of losses

here's a small preview of what I've been trading for the past few weeks - lower low or higher high, pullback and confirmation on H4 timeframe... this is what I would like to trade but as you can see in this lossy trade sometimes I have a problem with the correct SL and TP setting... this could be a profitable trade, but it is what it is

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-h1.png Size: 54 KB


I know that sometimes I make stupid mistakes, but I also know that I'm not too far away from consistent money making

ah, I would forget to add that I'm trading only during EU session when volatility is the biggest
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #63
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:07pm Apr 15, 2017 12:07pm
Quoting TGS
{quote} Yeah but you can't just assume your three indicators are providing a winning signal independently of each other. As you know from having used various indicators, they typically start providing a signal around the same time. In other words, there's association and therefore not independent. For starters, you've got to use the chain rule to compute that joint probability.
You are wrong here buddy. I was talking about trading signals which are coming not from indicators only. There are a lot of different types of trading signals:

  1. Chart patterns (Head and Shoulders, Double Top/Bottom, Flag, Triangle ...),
  2. Japanees Candles and their patterns (Pin Bar, Dodji, Hammer ...),
  3. Price Action (Price touches SnR level or Supply/Demand zone ...),
  4. Signal from VSA analyses when price reaches VPOC level (Market Profile system),
  5. Some fundamental factors. For example Market sentiment change point when the biggest banks closes their shorts and opens long or vise versa.
  6. Signals from EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) or any other.
  7. ..........

These and similar to them types of signals are mostly independent.
Pesonaly I almost do not use indicators in trading. The rare exeption is my custom Market Profile indicator and Heavy Ticks indicator. And I may assure you that they have extremely low correlation with other common technical indicators.

BR, alex
  • #64
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:14pm Apr 15, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting freakout
... I have a problem with the correct SL and TP setting... this could be a profitable trade, but it is what it is
Seems like you are using EA according to your chart. If so you may backtest it and find the best SL & TP values with help of strategy tester optimisation.
BR, alex
  • #65
  • Edited 12:31pm Apr 15, 2017 12:19pm | Edited 12:31pm
ok so, to outline your problem:

You come here, obviously a losing trader, and you "know" it all, but you lose since years.
And you are asking why.
You do get some pretty good answers here from people who actualy want to help you.
And then you go like: "I stick to what I do since years and I wont change a thing, because I know..."

That's your problem > Mindset

Seeking for help but refuse to get rid of old and bad habits, forget what you believe to know and actualy start from scratch and learn...
I have seen this so often.

On your Stop Loss problem: doing a proper analysis and a correct RR, planing your trades, would tell you exactly where to put your Stops (and where NOT to put them).
Or: if you'd actualy just draw the feckin lines like you have been told, and watch what happens and learn, for a while, and then come back and ask the one right question. But you insist in finding the right answer by asking the wrong question, and this never works....

sorry but to fill a cup one must first emty the cup

look at your chart (top right). 6% drawdown on one day. But "I stick to..." & "I know"....
that's your problem.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #66
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:22pm Apr 15, 2017 12:22pm
1-but I still don't have a strategy
2-and many other strategies but without any success...
3-I know how to trade with trend using HL/LH (see chart below, Why short?)
4- I know everything about proper money management
5-my problem is that I don't know what to trade
6- all trends are very clean (see chart below)
7-I tried everything... I don't know what's the problem
8-I write all my ideas on paper, I follow them but without results... (see quote 1)
9-I don't want a ready strategy - I want to build my own
10-most of my trades are losses
11-I know that I can earn money (see quote 2)
12-I look at each small detail on the chart and that's why I loose money (see quote 7)
13-I won't ask for what I should do with my strategy (see quote 1)
14-I won't give up on 1:2 ratio - it saves your ass during a series of losses (see quote 12)
15-I also know that I'm not too far away from consistent money making (see quotes 7 & 10)

Not criticizing as I was here also , but read your comments above then go back & read all the suggestions/help you were offered. Plenty good advice just not sure you want any :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-h1.png Size: 46 KB
  • #67
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:32pm Apr 15, 2017 12:32pm
Quoting sevan62
{quote} Seems like you are using EA according to your chart. If so you may backtest it and find the best SL & TP values with help of strategy tester optimisation.
this is a trade management EA with auto SL & TP values - you can modify them later

Quoting Teek
ok so, to outline your problem: You come here, obviously a losing trader, and you "know" it all, but you lose since years. And you are asking why. You do get some pretty good answers here from people who actualy want to help you. And then you go like: "I stick to what I do since years and I wont change a thing, because I know..." That's your problem > Mindset Seeking for help but refuse to get rid of old and bad habits, forget what you believe to know and actualy start from scratch and learn... I have seen this so often. On your Stop...
maybe you're right, but I didn't write that I won't change anything - I know that I must change something, but I need some time to see what I have to change I read everything you write, but the rest I have to do alone - choose the best and see if it works for me

thanks for your help guys - I appreciate it
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #68
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:37pm Apr 15, 2017 12:37pm
Quoting srt
1-but I still don't have a strategy 2-and many other strategies but without any success... 3-I know how to trade with trend using HL/LH (see chart below, Why short?) 4- I know everything about proper money management 5-my problem is that I don't know what to trade 6- all trends are very clean (see chart below) 7-I tried everything... I don't know what's the problem 8-I write all my ideas on paper, I follow them but without results... (see quote 1) 9-I don't want a ready strategy - I want to build my own 10-most of my trades are losses 11-I know...
I know it looks a little strange, but I'm tired of all this I opened a short trade there because there was a small resistance zone on H4 timeframe I know that there should be a long trade but H4 confused me...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #69
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:38pm Apr 15, 2017 12:38pm
Quoting freakout
thanks for all replies I agree with some things but I won't give up on 1:2 ratio - it saves your ass during a series of losses here's a small preview of what I've been trading for the past few weeks - lower low or higher high, pullback and confirmation on H4 timeframe... this is what I would like to trade but as you can see in this lossy trade sometimes I have a problem with the correct SL and TP setting... this could be a profitable trade, but it is what it is {image} I know that sometimes I make stupid mistakes, but...
Freakout, It would be possible to share this indicator?
Thank you in advance.
Attached Image
The funniest, is that nobody takes me seriously.
  • #70
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:49pm Apr 15, 2017 12:49pm
Quoting FairTrader
{quote} Freakout, It would be possible to share this indicator? Thank you in advance. {image}
here you go

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 LotValue.mq4   6 KB | 707 downloads
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #71
  • Apr 15, 2017 2:44pm Apr 15, 2017 2:44pm
The major factors one has to conquer before being successful are (1) fear (2) greed, (3) ego (4) lack of the right knowledge and distractions from keeping tabs on the first 4. Which of those is holding you back? I think 2, 3 and 4. Only you can find the humility to take care of no 3. Short summary to help with no 4. Develop your system round these key practical cornerstones.

Entry- find the Trend using using your "favorite Indy" in two time frames and multi currency analysis or volume and PA at support/resistance or Major Bank bias and traders sentiment analysis. Importantly beware of news/ economic announcements!
TPs- should be logical not just numerical so dependent on Atr, fib and market profile .
SL/exit - should be logical and dependent on Atr, trend and support/resistance.
To take care of no 2:
RM - risk only 0.07% for a trade( dont depend on lots size for profit depend on good trades and the power of compounding ) and don't have more than 3 trades consisting of same currency in all three pairs open at once.
MM must not be 1:2 on all trades( be humble, don't force the market, take what it gives) but at least 1:1 and above depending on TPs.

Repeat everyday!
  • #72
  • Apr 15, 2017 3:22pm Apr 15, 2017 3:22pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
u r just honest
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #73
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:39pm Apr 15, 2017 7:39pm
This is why technical analysis will kill you.

A chart is nothing more than a graphical representation of where the price was in the PAST.
Just because the market stopped there before does not mean that it will do so again. Plus,
why did it stop there in the past? Did it stop because some huge trader sold 10,000? Or was
there very little volume driving the move? Was it 9:00a.m. or was it 2:45p.m.? Did a few
hundred contracts cause a 10 point run? This is important to know. That number is more
important if 10,000 traded there than if 500 traded there. And even that doesn't matter much
because the guy who sold 10,000 there that day may not even be trading today. It might have
been a perfect opportunity for him to dump a position without pushing the market against
himself. He may not even trade this market anymore.

You have to know what is happening RIGHT NOW. The people playing RIGHT NOW are the
ones who are going to move the market. Are the people who are playing right now going to
make decisions based on technical analysis? Maybe. Not likely. Not the guys with money.
And if they do, chances are they are going to do what technical analysis tells you not to do. If
the technicals say buy, they are going to sell.

Think about it. Fibonacci numbers? Gann lines? Stochastics? Bollinger Bands? What are
these things? They are ways of trying to classify data. They are numbers calculated after the
fact. They are indicators used to try and predict the future. How can a Gann line tell me what
Bill at XYZ hedge fund is going to do? Even charts themselves...they are just lines on a
page. The most basic of charting ideas, drawing trendlines, fails to make sense. The
trendlines change depending upon the scale of the chart. Look at a 2 minute, 5 minute, 60
minute and daily chart of the same product. Try to draw trendlines on each one. Lines within
lines within lines. It's ridiculous.

It's the human desire to see patterns within the chaos. Don't get me wrong. Patterns DO
exist. But you're not going to see them on a chart. The pattern is...
"It doesn't look like anyone wants to sell anymore at these prices so I'm going to buy 10s and
hope it triggers a move." That's it, folks. That's the pattern. You are at the mercy of people
with billions. They will push the market and in order for you to make money, you have to
anticipate what they are going to do. Can this be done? Absolutely. But it can't be done by
looking at any kind of technical B.S.

So what's the answer? Stop trading Forex and move to Futures! Focus on reading order flow
from the DOM.

When you're trading the Futures, you see all the action. If 10,000 contracts trade,
you see it. You can see bids and offers above and below the current price. You can often tell
whether a bid is from someone who really wants it or from someone who's trying to push the
market. You can't see anything in the Forex market. Not to mention, you're giving up a huge
spread. You cannot bid and offer. If you want in, you have to hit their bid or offer. So you are
instantly down money. If the spread is 2 pips on the EUR/USD (Euro against the U.S. Dollar)
and you buy it, you are instantly down $20 per contract. Meaning, if you wanted to instantly
turn around and sell it, you have to sell it 2 pips lower for a loss of $20. If I'm working a bid in
the bonds and I get hit and it's still bid, I'm even.
  • #74
  • Edited 8:32pm Apr 15, 2017 8:14pm | Edited 8:32pm
Quoting lKeithStone
Can this be done? Absolutely. But it can't be done by looking at any kind of technical B.S. So what's the answer? Stop trading Forex and move to Futures! Focus on reading order flow from the DOM. When you're trading the Futures, you see all the action. If 10,000 contracts trade, you see it. You can see bids and offers above and below the current price. You can often tell whether a bid is from someone who really wants it or from someone who's trying to push the market. You can't see anything in the Forex market. Not to...
If trading commodity & equity futures then reading volume/orders on a DOM can be helpful as the markets are centralized so all the volume/orders are visible. In currencies, most volume is traded in forex & NOT in the futures market so you're only looking at a small percentage of the volume so the real "movers" of FX comes from forex which isn't visible. Forex has approx. 5.1 trillion dollars a day in transactions and I checked the total FX volume @ CME on thursday was less than 65 billion dollars.

***Transaction costs are approx. $5 less per lot/contract in futures compared to forex. (If total cost of $10/lot in forex)

Just my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Futures Volume.png Size: 18 KB
  • #75
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:15pm Apr 15, 2017 8:15pm
Quoting lKeithStone
This is why technical analysis will kill you. A chart is nothing more than a graphical representation of where the price was in the PAST. Just because the market stopped there before does not mean that it will do so again. Plus, why did it stop there in the past? Did it stop because some huge trader sold 10,000? Or was there very little volume driving the move? Was it 9:00a.m. or was it 2:45p.m.? Did a few hundred contracts cause a 10 point run? This is important to know. That number is more important if 10,000 traded there than if 500 traded there....
I'm probably not the only person that does not know this but, how does a retail trader participate in the futures market? I always assumed access to the futures market was for professionals and not retail traders.
  • #76
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:19pm Apr 15, 2017 8:19pm
Quoting TGS
{quote} I'm probably not the only person that does not know this but, how does a retail trader participate in the futures market? I always assumed access to the futures market was for professionals and not retail traders.
Easily accessible to anyone but requires more capital & leverage is lower with margin requirements much higher.
Smallest trade size is 1 contract which is equivalent to 1 standard lot in forex.
"Mini-contracts" are available but volume is pretty thin.
  • #77
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:22pm Apr 15, 2017 8:22pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
So you had 5 years of losses.
So you tried this and that.
So you want someone to give you 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio because of your losses.

Same "poor me" story over and over again on FF.
FF is a graveyard for losing traders.
The posters and viewers have come to lay their flowers on yet another losing trader.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #78
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:31pm Apr 15, 2017 8:31pm
Quoting srt
{quote} If trading commodity & equity futures then reading volume/orders on a DOM can be helpful as the markets are centralized so all the volume/orders are visible. In currencies, most volume is traded in forex & NOT in the futures market so you're only looking at a small percentage of the volume so the real "movers" of FX comes from forex which isn't visible. Forex has approx. 5.1 trillion dollars a day in transactions and I checked the total FX volume @ CME on thursday was less than 65 billion dollars. ***Transaction costs are approx. $5 less...
That's why you don't trade currencies. Trade the emini's or treasuries. Treasuries preferably... less commissions, more liquid.
  • #79
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:40pm Apr 15, 2017 8:40pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Easily accessible to anyone but requires more capital & leverage is lower with margin requirements much higher. Smallest trade size is 1 contract which is equivalent to 1 standard lot in forex. "Mini-contracts" are available but volume is pretty thin.
Does not require more capital. Unless of course you're starting with less than $500. You can open an account for $500 and trade the 5 year T-Note. Each tick is worth $7.81 and it moves slow because of how thick it is. If you have an edge you can scalp ticks and slowly build your account. 1 Contract only takes $250 of margin.

Do I recommend starting with that much? NO. But it's possible.
  • #80
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:44pm Apr 15, 2017 8:44pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Does not require more capital. Unless of course you're starting with less than $500. You can open open an account for $500 and trade the 5 year T-Note. Each tick is worth $7.81 and it moves slow because of how thick it is. If you have an edge you can scalp ticks and slowly build your account. 1 Contract only takes $250 of margin.
Yes, I was referring to FX futures. My broker requires approx. $7,000 to trade one contract of Euro futures. Other brokers require less.
Forex brokers require a fraction of that to trade one lot of EU.
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