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5 years and still no strategy

  • #41
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:55pm Apr 14, 2017 11:55pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Dr Phil says "How's that working for you?" Why did you ask for help and then tell us you don't want to try anything new; okay, carry on doing what you're doing. With FRACTALS you are trading the price not some random signal that may or may not be good Forget them Chinese candles, just look at FRACTALS, it is PRICE Price breaks weekly lows, daily lows, all the time, don't need trend line, only horizontal lines Up to you, can't say it any plainer
I didn't ask for a ready strategy - I asked for what I can do in my current situation I won't trade with someone's strategy if I don't like it - simple

the best results in my trading career I had 2 years ago when I was trading japanese candlestick patterns - I had a time when I was making 15% per day, but I wanted more and more and something wrong happened to my trading...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #42
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:57pm Apr 14, 2017 11:57pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} I forgot to ask, what is TIGHT for stop loss? Why does it have to be tight? Is your account only very small? Many times I will trade with 2% risk, 100 pips stop loss and just exit at 50 pips for 1% gain My stop doesn't get hit and I have twice as much chance of making the profit. With the trades I have, in case you think the Take Profit was far away, actually the 38.2% retracement Fibonacci projects to a 1.618% extension See this chart, now that would be some profits {image}
yes, I have a very small account - only 194$ now tight stop loss for me isn't bigger than 40-50 pips when trading H1 or H4 timeframe
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #43
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:05am Apr 15, 2017 12:05am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
crucialpoint's post nails it

if you have to ask some random dudes on the forum about whether or not you should continue..then my advice is close shop. just quit. you're not gonna make it. now go get a job and see if you can manage not to fuck up like you did in trading and maybe move up the ladder to a decent pay.

if you were looking for feedback on a strategy you come up with, or maybe some out of the box theory you worked hard on to formulate, then i'd say, hey at least this guy is trying. But just by that bolded statement shows that you're a lazy entitled dude who thinks that knowing a few rules of tradin that you can get from a public library is enough to get where you are going.

either keep trying and stop being a bitch, or just quit.
  • #44
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:18am Apr 15, 2017 12:18am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} crucialpoint's post nails it if you have to ask some random dudes on the forum about whether or not you should continue..then my advice is close shop. just quit. you're not gonna make it. now go get a job and see if you can manage not to fuck up like you did in trading and maybe move up the ladder to a decent pay. if you were looking for feedback on a strategy you come up with, or maybe some out of the box theory you worked hard on to formulate, then i'd say,...
I only asked for advice - nothing more I won't ask for what I should do with my strategy or something as it will end like other threads on this forum - people will start adding indicators, more, more and more, and some day it will die because no one would want to trade it I'm working and trying all the time and I didn't write that I will quit, so don't call me lazy please I bet that every day I spend more time in front of a MT4 on trading and working on my skills than you - maybe I just need a bit more time to earn money consistently...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #45
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:26am Apr 15, 2017 12:26am
Quoting FairTrader
{quote}
also through market depth; more by market depth than by support /resistance zones
  • #46
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:31am Apr 15, 2017 12:31am
Quoting freakout
{quote} I only asked for advice - nothing more I won't ask for what I should do with my strategy or something as it will end like other threads on this forum - people will start adding indicators, more, more and more, and some day it will die because no one would want to trade it I'm working and trying all the time and I didn't write that I will quit, so don't call me lazy please I bet that every day I spend more time in front of a MT4 on trading and working on my skills than you - maybe I just need a bit more time...
you practically asked for handout for a system that can give you 1:2 r:r with 50% accuracy lol...you insane bro?

just admit you're not asking for advice..but someone to give you a hug, and maybe a free system.

ps. mt4..that's nice..
  • #47
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:32am Apr 15, 2017 12:32am
Quoting freakout
I still don't have a strategy
99% of the comprehensive and simple strategies found online, work pretty well to excellent as long as you can stick with the rules every time.
Save yourself the stress of constantly looking for a strategy and get to one of the MT4 defaults. This way you'll have plenty of time to plan each trade.
My 2c

Good luck

TRT
  • #48
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:36am Apr 15, 2017 12:36am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} you practically asked for handout for a system that can give you 1:2 r:r with 50% accuracy lol...you insane bro? just admit you're not asking for advice..but someone to give you a hug, and maybe a free system. ps. mt4..that's nice..
"I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio." - did I asked for a ready system here? go troll somewhere else...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #49
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:37am Apr 15, 2017 12:37am
Quoting freakout
{quote} "I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio." - did I asked for a ready system here? go troll somewhere else...
ok, i'm done. have a good easter my man..
  • #50
  • Edited 1:13am Apr 15, 2017 12:46am | Edited 1:13am
In the real world some formal training and 5 years experience + hard work will teach you the right "strategy" to build - for example - a suspension bridge
In the make believe world of forex trading you must reverse your expectations.

No experience = not a chance.
More experience = finding more ways to lose (all "forex suspension bridges" will fall down eventually) ==> this is where you are !

And probably more so in trading the worst kind of vice is ad"vice". (;
  • #51
  • Edited 2:13am Apr 15, 2017 1:40am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting freakout
{quote} thanks, this is very motivating my risk is always the same - 2% per trade with 1:2 ratio - in this case I need only a 40-50% hitrate to be profitable my trading method for the last few months was really simple - I was trading only pinbar pullbacks on H1 or H4 with H4 or D1 trend, but the most important thing is to know where stop loss and take profit should be set... I have a problem with it and maybe that's why most of my trades are losses... I know that I can earn money and I know that I'm only one step away from it, but...

Ok so, we have multiple problems here to fix. But don't worry, you can do it.
Please read this, and before you say "but", read it again. And try to understand where I am going with this.
Because you really should learn abour realism, hitrate, riskmangement:

you aim for "only a 40%-50% hitrate".
Over which period of time?
Day to day > very unrealistic!
Weekly > unrealistic
Monthly > damn hard
Year > good luck...

seriously, most people focus on "hitrate" way too much.
What do you think the "hitrate" of some of the most successful traders in the world is?
It is closer to the 40% down than you think.
Your problem is you don't know where to put Stops and TPs? --> Plan your trades before you take them and you will fix this problem!
Eliminate all impulsive trading! The markets are always there, stop being afraid of "missing trades".
Filter the bad ones, the shaky ones... take the good ones.
A good trade is: It can go massively right or a little bit wrong.
Not the other way around.
To assume you can be persistent with a 50% hitrate is very unrealistic.
Keep it real and focus on what matters, and that is not the hitrate.

You say "2% per trade with 1:2 ratio - in this case I need only a 40-50% hitrate to be profitable"
Question: Are you profitable?

See....
your problem is not a matter of "system". You are trying to win trades instead of making money. Therefor you take too many trades that ou should not take because the setup is shit and the profit is not there. I know people who have a 70% "hitrate" and lose money (and are stubborn enough to keep depositing...)
The good old "being right and still lose money and I don't know why" problem is very common, and you seem to suffer from this.
Try to shift your focus away from "hitrate" towards a good RR management.
Don't get me wrong, Scalpers on the lower timeframes usualy don't care for RR and that's fine. But you say you trade the higher timeframes, means you go for longerterm trades. Take your time to plan youur trades, take the good ones that can only make you lose very little compared to the potential profit, give them time to develop and don't panic when a trades pulls a little bit against you. There is your entry, there is your Stop, there is your Profit. Job done, go out enjoy life, let the market do the work...


"I risk 2%" per trade.
Bullshit! That is bad Risk management. Education Industry teaches newbies this shit to make them spend more money, selling "become rich" dreams.
You risk 2% per trade, and you take 5 trades a day? So you risk 10% of yor capital every day?
And you aim for 1:2 per trade? So you want to make 4% profit with every single trade? Times 5 = 20% profit with 5 trades a day?
LOL
Seriously, keep it realistic mate, because here you have the reason why you lose money since 5 years.

Try this:
- take the %% of your total capital that you are willing to put at Risk. This will be your maximum total exposure
(mine is 5% for my private account, that's huge! Pleae note, we do not talk about hedging Risk here, I keep this very simple)
- all your trades must be within this %% of total exposure, you are not allowed to exceed your total exposure!
- now you have room, a set frame of risk, to start building trades and scale them up when they run or scale them down when they lose.
it does two things for you:
1. you apply GOOD risk management now (the "per trade" approach is bad risk management and what is told to newbies who are doomed to lose their capital)
2. it shifts your attention away from hitrate and towards managing Risk and Money, and that is what a -succesful- trader does.
Trading is: taking calculated risk on potential profit, and nothing else.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #52
  • Apr 15, 2017 2:11am Apr 15, 2017 2:11am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Ok so, we have multiple problems here to fix. But don't worry, you can do it. Please read this, and before you say "but", read it again. And try to understand where I am going with this. Because you really should learn abour realism, hitrate, riskmangement: you aim for "only a 40%-50% hitrate". Over which period of time? Day to day > very unrealistic! Weekly > unrealistic Monthly > damn hard Year > good luck... seriously, most people focus on "hitrate" way too much. What do you think the "hitrate" of some of the most successful traders in...
Hello Teek,

Thanks for a laying out a good MM/RM Style...

You said:

"take the %% of your total capital that you are willing to put at Risk. This will be your maximum total exposure (mine is 5%, that's huge!)"

and

"you apply GOOD risk management now (the "per trade" approach is bad risk management and what is told to newbies who are doomed to lose their capital)"

Can you help me better understand if possible with an example, I am not able to discern the difference. They look the same, but i know i am missing the nuance.

Thanks
  • #53
  • Apr 15, 2017 2:25am Apr 15, 2017 2:25am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Hello Teek, Thanks for a laying out a good MM/RM Style... You said: "take the %% of your total capital that you are willing to put at Risk. This will be your maximum total exposure (mine is 5%, that's huge!)" and "you apply GOOD risk management now (the "per trade" approach is bad risk management and what is told to newbies who are doomed to lose their capital)" Can you help me better understand if possible with an example, I am not able to discern the difference. They look the same, but i know i am missing the nuance. Thanks
Example:
you have a total capital, we assume there are no trades running at the moment so your Equity = your Capital:

Your capital is: 100%
You are willing to put 5% of your capital at Risk (you expose 5% of your money to the markets)
Take 5% of your total capital. Start building trades.
Let's say, on your entry trades you start small, 0.5% per trade entry... when they pull your way you add positions to these trades (scaling up), adding more risk to them, but never exceeding your set 5% total market exposure, scaling down (closing positions) at certain points like retracements / resistance, whatever... before important news events... holidays and weekends... whatever...
You always move within your maximum allowed total exposure.
5% exposure for example gives you room to place 10 0.5% positions, or 5 1% positions, or 2 2% and a 1%... and so on.
This is important because: it allows you to play with positions sizing. When I trade a trend, I take larger size positions. When I trade a mean reversal, I enter small, same for breakout setups, I start small and scale up if they actualy happen... before red flag events that could screw me over I scale down again... and so on... I am always in the markets, and I always know my Risk exposure.
It protects your capital, which is part your job. And it makes money, which is also part of your job
Forget this "2% per trade" thing, that's gambling. Yes I do take 2% trades, sure I do, when the 2% is within my maximum allowed total exposure and when I am in the mood to add the maximum exposure to the market (nobody forces you to surf the maximum all the time, play with it, scale it up and down, sleep better)

Hope this explains it. English is not my native langue
you are not expected to understand this
  • #54
  • Apr 15, 2017 4:30am Apr 15, 2017 4:30am
Just another day in FX paradise....

The "new" members flocking together here and offer their advice! LOL.

How many of these "type" of threads are here in FF....? Same old story over and over.....

Wash , rinse and repeat.......
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #55
  • Apr 15, 2017 4:42am Apr 15, 2017 4:42am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Example: you have a total capital, we assume there are no trades running at the moment so your Equity = your Capital: Your capital is: 100% You are willing to put 5% of your capital at Risk (you expose 5% of your money to the markets) Take 5% of your total capital. Start building trades. Let's say, on your entry trades you start small, 0.5% per trade entry... when they pull your way you add positions to these trades (scaling up), adding more risk to them, but never exceeding your set 5% total market exposure, scaling down (closing positions)...
It really depends how you trade. If you just look for 1 or 2 good trades per day then 2% per trade is no more gambling than what you do.
  • #56
  • Edited 8:19am Apr 15, 2017 5:42am | Edited 8:19am
I believe if you don't enjoy it, you better quit. It's simply not worth it. This is not kind of work saving the lives you know....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #57
  • Apr 15, 2017 5:52am Apr 15, 2017 5:52am
Quoting freakout
{quote} ... the best results in my trading career I had 2 years ago when I was trading japanese candlestick patterns - I had a time when I was making 15% per day, but I wanted more and more and something wrong happened to my trading...
It is greed buddy. One of our biggest trading enemy.

15% per day probably means that you were greatly exceeding MM rules what you have written here yourself "risk not more than 2% in one trade" or your were extremly lucky to trade without any loss making 5-7 deals per day which is almost impossible.

Quoting freakout
{quote} I didn't ask for a ready strategy - I asked for what I can do in my current situation ...
I can confirm that japanese candlesticks and their patterns work but they are not enough to build a strong consistently winning strategy based on them only. You may greatly increase your win rate ratio if you add one or two confirmations. It may be: MP (Market Profile) levels, divergence (CCI better), SnR or Supply/Demand zones, trend filtering, higher TF fractals ... or any other which you know better and which works better for you.
Two or three additional signals confluences may turn your win trade probability from 0.6 to 0.9 and more.
Say we have signals A, B and C with win probabilities: P(A)=0.55, P(B)=0.6, P(C)=0.65
Let us culculate conditional probability of enent D which mean winning trade when signals A & B & C are in confluence: P(D|ABC).
P(D|ABC) = 1 - (1-P(A))*(1-P(B))*(1-P(C)) = 1 - (1-0.55)*(1-0.6)*(1-0.65) = 1 - 0.45*0.4*0.35 = 1 - 0.063 = 0.937
P(D|ABC) = 0.937
This simple example shows how our chances are encreasing when we use not even strong enough confirmating signals. Another question is that the more confirmation signals we use the more rare we get confluences.

One more important thing that every trader have to take into account:

  1. Trading Time. You should exclude low volatile and low liqiud market hours. Better is London and NY sessions in common.
  2. Avoid trading during Red News if you are not a news trader like vvFish is.)))

Neglecting this simple rule may lead our trading results to random walk or even worse.

Happy Easter friends.
Stay GREEN.

BR, alex
  • #58
  • Apr 15, 2017 5:55am Apr 15, 2017 5:55am
Quoting Teek
{quote} This is by far THE BEST post I have ever read on FF (so far)! Spot on!
If there is so, check with rest of the posts of Crucial Point here on FF (if you didnt do this before... ;-)
  • #59
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:40am Apr 15, 2017 7:40am
You might take a look in to my trading journal, I have just started for my EA I called...

Obsidian 7th Generation

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=656972
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #60
  • Apr 15, 2017 8:27am Apr 15, 2017 8:27am
Quoting TheRealTruth
{quote} 99% of the comprehensive and simple strategies found online, work pretty well to excellent as long as you can stick with the rules every time. Save yourself the stress of constantly looking for a strategy and get to one of the MT4 defaults. This way you'll have plenty of time to plan each trade. My 2c Good luck TRT
this is bullshit from a coders point of view...
99% of the strategies fail in the long run and donīt make consistent money when coded strict to stick with the rules.
just do it
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