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5 years and still no strategy

  • #21
  • Apr 14, 2017 7:21pm Apr 14, 2017 7:21pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} If you take these 1:1 all the time, you lose in the long run.
hello, can you explain this part a lil more ?
  • #22
  • Apr 14, 2017 8:39pm Apr 14, 2017 8:39pm
Quoting freakout
I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
My problem as well, thankfully I've found the medicine.

To me, those traders who can profitable purely on TA alone are just pure genius/gifted person.
Dont limit yourself, do/learn other things that the herd wont even consider.
Dont be trapped in technical hellhole (jumping around from one ta to the other, on repeat)

GL.
I see it all in between ...
  • #23
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:49pm Apr 14, 2017 9:49pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
So you've wasted 5 years for nothing, and you want to continue?

You could have learned a skill and landed a jab or got some freelance work paying much much more then any retail forex trader makes.

So, is it worth wasting another 5 years? or even another second...?
  • #24
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:02pm Apr 14, 2017 10:02pm
My advice, keep forex commitment as a hobby, do not give up your current day job .etc. Also since it's your hobby, don't look up strategies online, because 95% are failed traders and the other 5% represents a big range from break even traders to successful traders. Brain storm or hunt for profiles of the best and get in touch with them and leech.

-Gluck
HMSR
  • #25
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:06pm Apr 14, 2017 10:06pm
Quoting Thx
{quote} My problem as well, thankfully I've found the medicine. To me, those traders who can profitable purely on TA alone are just pure genius/gifted person. Dont limit yourself, do/learn other things that the herd wont even consider. Dont be trapped in technical hellhole (jumping around from one ta to the other, on repeat) GL.
I agree with Thx here. TA can only take you so far. To be truly successful you have to deeply understand why the price is moving as it is. What are the macro-economic drivers? What are the current news flows driving sentiment? What is the market positioning? Are the big players under- or over-exposed? What are bonds doing? Where is the dollar index?

Price always moves for a reason, even if it's a short-term technical reason such as a stop run (aka false breakout). The reason in this case is that big players are seeking liquidity to fill their orders. Macro traders will be filling in the direction of the long-term trend (based on CB and economic factors such as interest rate differentials). They will use sentiment and stop runs to enter at a discount.

As a part time trader it is very difficult to keep track of all the reasons, especially the daily drivers. You could simply ignore sentiment and market positioning, and enter small positions in the long-term direction with wide stops. But doing this is perilous as sentiment and positioning are very important factors, and could result in price going against you by hundreds of pips (as in the case of USDJPY right now). Another solution is to subscribe to a service that keeps track of the drivers for you.

In short, successful trading boils down to:

1) Know the current price drivers and determine the best direction, or keep out if the direction is mixed / unclear.
2) Enter at a good discount. Stop runs are usually excellent places to enter. Be patient for the best entry.
3) Place stops where they are unlikely to be hit.
4) Trade small, so your account won't be affected much if you get it wrong and your stops are hit.
5) Don't expect big returns, unless you're lucky enough to catch a big move and you add to your position several times along the way.

Good luck!
You reap what you sow.
  • #26
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:32pm Apr 14, 2017 10:32pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
So here is the situation:

I know price action

I know how to trade with the trend

I know how to manage risk

I tried to trade H4 breakouts

Correct so far?

I think I can help you, how many good trades is up to you.

First, a little test for you, what is your bias for this chart eg. Bullish or Bearish?

Which way do you think you might plan to trade for the next week?

Easy question, no tricks

There are 5 EMA, 12 EMA and 20 EMA on the chart for no particular reason, only a visual aid.

And it is a 4 Hour chart, so there is 3 weeks and a few days of data there to evaluate

I wait your response, don't eat too many Easter eggs

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #27
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:38pm Apr 14, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting freakout
{quote} thanks, this is very motivating my risk is always the same - 2% per trade with 1:2 ratio - in this case I need only a 40-50% hitrate to be profitable my trading method for the last few months was really simple - I was trading only pinbar pullbacks on H1 or H4 with H4 or D1 trend, but the most important thing is to know where stop loss and take profit should be set... I have a problem with it and maybe that's why most of my trades are losses... I know that I can earn money and I know that I'm only one step away from it, but...
Sorry if I sound/come across a bit harsh, but you shouldn't be trading in the first place....and I mean you should never trade with your real money in the first place. That is RULE no.1 for everyone.

Secondly, find your trading strategy/style and work out your risk reward ratios/money managements.

Thirdly, you need to be profitable for at least 5 months without significant drawdowns.

Lastly, once you are ready to trade with real money, trading should be absolutely effortlessly. That is you know exactly what you trading and your trades are in routine winning cycles.

Good luck mate!
Time Is Money
  • #28
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:41pm Apr 14, 2017 10:41pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} So here is the situation: I know price action I know how to trade with the trend I know how to manage risk I tried to trade H4 breakouts Correct so far? I think I can help you, how many good trades is up to you. First, a little test for you, what is your bias for this chart eg. Bullish or Bearish? Which way do you think you might plan to trade for the next week? Easy question, no tricks There are 5 EMA, 12 EMA and 20 EMA on the chart for no particular reason, only a visual aid. And it is a 4 Hour chart, so there is...
correct bias on the posted screen is bearish - the last low was a lower low, price made a lower high, but it looks like it's going to draw an inverted h&s pattern, so I would look for a bullish signal confirmed by a higher low (3 bar swing)
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #29
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:44pm Apr 14, 2017 10:44pm
Hi man, I know one guy who keep trying in this "game" for 15 years and still not breakeven. I also know one uncle who didnt know anything 6 months ago, but now he is consistently picking up tops and bottoms.

The difference? The 15-years guy is a system jumper. Have many mentors, keep using different indicators, not following plan (few losses would cause him to doubt and switch system again), and only train about 1 hour a day.

That uncle? The first few months, he smash in all of the theory from his only mentor, learning all the ins and outs of his platform, system and method. Understanding PA, market structure, inertia, manipulation, etc. He follow one single truth, which is what cause price to move and how to spot the golden SR level to trade. He dedicated almost all of his awake time to read, draw, analyse the chart (because he lost his job). Even his wife called him crazy devoted.

But thanks to his hustles and struggles, he made it, by following single system, all the way.

Years spent with scattered focus VS. Monomaniacal focus have a GIGANTIC difference.

Oh, that 15-years guy is a smart academic guy. That uncle never finish his high school. So this business has nothing to do with intelligent. It has something to do with patience and persistance of one way.

It's interesting when you said you have spent 5 years and know about price action, yet you dont have the strategy to trade. In my personal case, After i learned few years of PA, the strategy appeared automagically as I can spot where price will "likely" to reverse (or continue) and how can I profit from those PAs.
  • #30
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:51pm Apr 14, 2017 10:51pm
Quoting freakout
{quote} correct bias on the posted screen is bearish - the last low was a lower low, price made a lower high, but it looks like it's going to draw an inverted h&s pattern, so I would look for a bullish signal confirmed by a higher low (3 bar swing)
WRONG

And I can't help you until you get this answer correct; I told you it's not tricky question, you are reading TOO much into the chart & nothing there!

TRADE WHAT YOU SEE

Or retract this statement

"I know how to trade with the trend"

I will post another chart, it is good you are here in real time, at any time you see a trade, please give the entry, stop loss and take profit

Good luck

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #31
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:06pm Apr 14, 2017 11:06pm
"you are reading TOO much into the chart" - yeah, that's the biggest problem for me, because I look at each small detail on the chart and that's why I loose money for example - when I look for a pullback I try to find a 3-bar zone where the price retraces and then I trade with a current trend - a 3-bar zone for me is an area with 2-bearish or 2-bullish candles + 1 bullish or 1 bearish candle, something like a sandwich maybe I should look for a pullback only near important levels on H4 or D1 timeframe and trade it on H1... I will try it next week
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #32
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:12pm Apr 14, 2017 11:12pm
Quoting freakout
"you are reading TOO much into the chart" - yeah, that's the biggest problem for me, because I look at each small detail on the chart and that's why I loose money for example - when I look for a pullback I try to find a 3-bar zone where the price retraces and then I trade with a current trade - a 3-bar zone for me is an area with 2-bearish or 2-bullish candles + 1 bullish or 1 bearish candle, something like a sandwich maybe I should look for a pullback only near important levels on H4 or D1 timeframe and trade it on H1... I will try...
Don't run away, not finished yet This is 1 hour chart

Who mentions pullbacks, I'm teaching BREAKOUTS here

You said "I tried to trade H4 breakouts"

I wish you read my writing as much as you read the charts

New information on this chart, Monday is finished

There are 4 Hour Fractals - these are same place where people say Support & Resistance, no difference, believe me

There are exact times for the market OPEN - you said you wanted during EU session

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #33
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:21pm Apr 14, 2017 11:21pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Don't run away, not finished yet This is 1 hour chart Who mentions pullbacks, I'm teaching BREAKOUTS here You said "I tried to trade H4 breakouts" I wish you read my writing as much as you read the charts New information on this chart, Monday is finished There are 4 Hour Fractals - these are same place where people say Support & Resistance, no difference, believe me There are exact times for the market OPEN - you said you wanted during EU session {image}
my adventure with breakouts was very short, but I would look for a short entry near the last fractal
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #34
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:23pm Apr 14, 2017 11:23pm
Now we are into TUESDAY Frankfurt Open and London is Open, see the top of the chart

Is there enough information to setup a trade?

What is it?

Good Luck

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #35
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:26pm Apr 14, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting Erebus
Now we are into TUESDAY Frankfurt Open and London is Open, see the top of the chart Is there enough information to setup a trade? What is it? Good Luck {image}
I would wait for a signal from japanese candlestick patterns as this is not a clean situation for me
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #36
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:28pm Apr 14, 2017 11:28pm
Quoting freakout
{quote} my adventure with breakouts was very short, but I would look for a short entry near the last fractal
You don't just look, you put PENDING order immediately

Take Action

Did you get it?

It was 2 to 1 trade so easy

This pair is CHF - JPY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #37
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:35pm Apr 14, 2017 11:35pm
Quoting freakout
{quote} I would wait for a signal from japanese candlestick patterns as this is not a clean situation for me
Forget those Japanese, what did they ever do for you?

FRACTALS, look at the FRACTALS on your chart

Find the TREND, how can you NOT see it?

If it's not clean situation, let me know when it is

Then we can move on to higher time frames

And in case you think I'm blowing smoke with that example, this is my small real account, maybe I just got lucky

Good luck

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #38
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:36pm Apr 14, 2017 11:36pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} You don't just look, you put PENDING order immediately Take Action Did you get it? It was 2 to 1 trade so easy This pair is CHF - JPY {image}
I prefer to wait for a good entry signal as I can trade with a tight SL that's why I don't like breakouts and love pullbacks
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #39
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:42pm Apr 14, 2017 11:42pm
Quoting freakout
{quote} I prefer to wait for a good entry signal as I can trade with a tight SL that's why I don't like breakouts and love pullbacks

Dr Phil says "How's that working for you?"

Why did you ask for help and then tell us you don't want to try anything new; okay, carry on doing what you're doing.

With FRACTALS you are trading the price not some random signal that may or may not be good

Forget them Chinese candles, just look at FRACTALS, it is PRICE

Price breaks weekly lows, daily lows, all the time, don't need trend line, only horizontal lines

Up to you, can't say it any plainer
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #40
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:52pm Apr 14, 2017 11:52pm
Quoting freakout
{quote} I prefer to wait for a good entry signal as I can trade with a tight SL that's why I don't like breakouts and love pullbacks

I forgot to ask, what is TIGHT for stop loss?

Why does it have to be tight?

Is your account only very small?

Many times I will trade with 2% risk, 100 pips stop loss and just exit at 50 pips for 1% gain

My stop doesn't get hit and I have twice as much chance of making the profit.

With the trades I have, in case you think the Take Profit was far away, actually the 38.2% retracement Fibonacci projects to a 1.618% extension

See this chart, now that would be some profits

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
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