5 years and still no strategy | Forex Factory

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5 years and still no strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 14, 2017 11:02am Apr 14, 2017 11:02am
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success...

Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #2
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:49am Apr 14, 2017 11:49am
You have a series of strategies already but you have not developed/identified the rules, conditions and style that make them work. There are many ways to trade and be successful but it takes painstaking effort, study, practice and discipline to make a strategy work. Stop looking for the 'Holy Grail.' It's all about you.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #3
  • Apr 14, 2017 12:03pm Apr 14, 2017 12:03pm
Straight up with no chasers
Attached Image

Quoting freakout
I have 5 years of experience
Experience (knowledge) are not counted in years.
Driving your car for 30years is not going to make you a professional formula1 driver.
5, 10, 15 years (or more) trading doesn't equate to profitability or professionalism.


Quoting freakout
I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc.
People should pause whenever they say "I know..." and then look at the result of their actions if it matches what they know.
If you're not making any money.. you should rethink what you think you know.
Knowing and Doing are two different things; Everyone knows to eat their vegies, but they ate the cake instead.
The problem with people is that they know too much... but they understand very little.


Quoting freakout
I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
The moment you think you should throw in the towels, hang the boots and gloves... is typically the right time to call it quits.
Everyone lives in their own reality... And to be successful in trading is to be able to step out of your own reality and see the world for what it truly is.
Most people don't know and have very little clue that it was a lost cause right from the beginning.

Success is when preparation meets opportunity at the perfect timing...
And most people are never prepared right from the beginning...
And the harshest part is that they don't know it.


Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #4
  • Apr 14, 2017 12:19pm Apr 14, 2017 12:19pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
in fact you don't know. trading with the trend is not about 50% accuracy and the reward should be limitless (or just trail the stop) not 2x risk
"Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?" nobody can aswer at this qestion, you are your own master
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #5
  • Apr 14, 2017 12:24pm Apr 14, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Similar to formal degrees or training programs, I think 5 years is essentially the length of time it takes to "graduate" from this informal training. The informal training being, learning how to trade in retail forex. With this in mind, I think most people are "employable" after 5 years (I'm meaning profitable) and if not, they could continue their studies further or change your field of study altogether.

I'm writing in this context to point out similarities in that there are a lot of people in the regular world that change their path of study or careers often and then and move onto something else.

In any case, I don't think it's actually ever possible to quit forex because I think we all know too much to quit.
  • #6
  • Apr 14, 2017 12:40pm Apr 14, 2017 12:40pm
It's hard to beat a man who won't quit.
  • #7
  • Apr 14, 2017 1:01pm Apr 14, 2017 1:01pm
and something more, for every one how is in simillar situation
you will know when you made it
its some time later after you are already good at risk management and psychologically fit, and you will find some patterns that are new or when you will find same pattern in same time in 2 different assets but you will be able to indetify that in the case of one of the assets thei are less people paing attention to it.
just go and read soros book the alchemy of finance
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #8
  • Apr 14, 2017 1:04pm Apr 14, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting freakout
I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all.
Do you understand that you are indeed looking for the HG ?
Sorry, but after 5 years, you should understand that. So I would say, just quit before you lose 10 more years.
Don't give up on your dreams. Keep sleeping.
  • #9
  • Apr 14, 2017 1:36pm Apr 14, 2017 1:36pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Dear trader: Great traders say, they are 10,000 hours to be masters.
You're very close, now, I ask, are you keeping a trading journal?
Are you entering the reasons for entering the trade, before entering?
Because if you are doing it, it is difficult to enter into despair, you will see quickly where you made a mistake, and thus the strategy is being built.
It helps a lot, setting a weekly goal. And when you reach it, let it be for good trades, and thus you will reinforce your self-esteem.
Look at the trade, as a whole, is not a technique, this or that, is to build a case, and there when you see the probability in your favor, you shoot.
In my case, it has been much more difficult, than everything, to construct a DAILY ROUTINE, from the beginning of the observation, to the evaluation of the input and RR.
Start with a goal of 10% monthly, and fight, write down every decision, that you take. And evaluate your performance weekly. Exterminating, mistake by mistake, you will see that in a year you will be safer and leaving the BE.
Regards, we have all been through this. It's time to adjust some things.
  • #10
  • Apr 14, 2017 1:39pm Apr 14, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Inserted Video
The funniest, is that nobody takes me seriously.
  • #11
  • Apr 14, 2017 1:52pm Apr 14, 2017 1:52pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Straight up with no chasers {image} {quote} Experience (knowledge) are not counted in years. Driving your car for 30years is not going to make you a professional formula1 driver. 5, 10, 15 years (or more) trading doesn't equate to profitability or professionalism. {quote} People should pause whenever they say "I know..." and then look at the result of their actions if it matches what they know. If you're not making any money.. you should rethink what you think you know. Knowing and Doing are two different things; Everyone...
This is by far THE BEST post I have ever read on FF (so far)!
Spot on!


What actualy might help the poster who is about to give up:
Uncle Teek's 7 Steps of hell:
1 - FORGET EVERYTHING you think you'd know
2 - remove EVERYTHING from your charts (I want you to look at the naked chart, only candlesticks, NOTHING ELSE!)
3 - please go to H1 & M15 for this excercise (DO IT)
4 - Anytime you want to take a trade: DON'T
--- instead: draw a horizontal line to where you would have placed your trade, and one line to where you would have placed your Stop for this trade (DO IT)
5 - sit back and watch! (keep doing this... after a while you notice something)
6 - learn everything about Risk vs Reward and Moneymanagement. Refuse to learn anything about strategy, indicators, bullshit (at this point! It doesn't help you just yet) Just keep watching the damn charts!
7 - start asking the right questions


hope this will help
I know that does. I put helpless people infront of naked charts and make them "shut up and watch" since many years. It works



It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble
It's what you know for sure, that just ain't so
- Mark Twain
you are not expected to understand this
  • #12
  • Apr 14, 2017 3:14pm Apr 14, 2017 3:14pm
Hmmmm.
I've been trying to figure out a helpful way of replying to this thread, because I was where you are now five years ago.
I would say that all the well meaning comments above are probably valid, but I am sure that you are aware of most of the suggestions. The first thing you must ask yourself is "Do I enjoy trading?". In other words, am I trading for the right reasons.
If you are trying to find a SYSTEM that works all the time, you will be disappointed, because all systems break down when market conditions change. Ever wonder why promising threads seem to peter out. I believe that trading involves all of your accumulated knowledge (which you will continue to accumulate). Start by looking at the trend which you can see by compressing the chart and keep your method simple, but insert things such as patterns, price action, fibs, etc. that you have learned over the years. I don't use conscious 'rules' because there are always exceptions in forex. Always try to open a trade when there are at least 2 reasons for doing so. Even then, you can have two identical setups and one will be a success and one may fail. My personal method (not system) mostly revolves around fibs and price action, but many other factors are inserted. If I see a thread that involves fibs, I will check it out to see if I can pick up a new slant on my method. For instance, I like Goldthehun's new thread, and can see the potential for short term trading. But even there I believe that you have to insert your accumulated knowledge, and he even encourages you to adapt the tools and concept to your own methods. If you try and have strict rules and a "system", you will be frustrated.
I think your goal of 3-5 trades a day with 2:1 RR is a bit too agressive. Cut it down to one or two trades with at least 1:1RR to begin with.
I have gone on long enough.
Good Luck.
  • #13
  • Apr 14, 2017 3:29pm Apr 14, 2017 3:29pm
Am not going to give you mere dogmas and soothing words like everyone else instead of what you need - a STRATEGY. I will give you a system that will satisfy all your requirements and end your misery. What will you give in return?
  • #14
  • Apr 14, 2017 3:37pm Apr 14, 2017 3:37pm
Thank you for all replies

For the last 4 years I was spending something about 10 hours daily in front of MT4 and for the last 2 years I was trading without any indicators. I know how to trade with trend using HL/LH method as I always want to take a good entry. I know everything about proper money management - I always risk 2% of my account per trade with 1:2 ratio as it's easy to hit and it's the most profitable scenario (confirmed by many excel calculators, etc.). I'm a big fan of japanese candlestick patterns and I always tried to build a strategy which is based on them. I think that I have enough knowledge to earn money but my problem is that I don't know what to trade - I don't know how to use everything what I learned... When I look at the chart I see many opportunities to trade, but sometimes I'm not sure where price will go and I don't take it... and then price goes in my direction, or my SL gets hit because it was too tight or in the wrong place.

My favourite timeframes are H1 & H4, because it's hard to overtrade on them and all trends are very clean. But as I mentioned earlier I don't know how to combine all my knowledge into one easy and profitable system. Pivots, pullbacks, breakouts, trend following - I tried everything... I don't know what's the problem - I write all my ideas on paper, I follow them but without results...


Hope everything is understandable as english is not my native language.


Thanks in advance for any help
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #15
  • Apr 14, 2017 3:41pm Apr 14, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting Surgefx
Am not going to give you mere dogmas and soothing words like everyone else instead of what you need - a STRATEGY. I will give you a system that will satisfy all your requirements and end your misery. What will you give in return?
thanks, but I don't have anything that I could give you I don't want a ready strategy - I want to build my own, which will fit me...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #16
  • Apr 14, 2017 3:50pm Apr 14, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Straight up with no chasers {image} {quote} Experience (knowledge) are not counted in years. Driving your car for 30years is not going to make you a professional formula1 driver. 5, 10, 15 years (or more) trading doesn't equate to profitability or professionalism. {quote} People should pause whenever they say "I know..." and then look at the result of their actions if it matches what they know. If you're not making any money.. you should rethink what you think you know. Knowing and Doing are two different things; Everyone knows to eat...

Great ! makes sense.
  • #17
  • Apr 14, 2017 3:53pm Apr 14, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Hey mate..All it takes is a good trading system(Pure Price action)without many indicators..trading less because trading 4 times a day exposes your account to risk however that has to do with psychology.You need a risk mgt,good risk reward ratio of atleast 1:2,trading plan and a trading journal..remember you need a good trading system..it only has to be tecnicals.you can trade harmonics too aswell..wish you the best out there
  • #18
  • Apr 14, 2017 4:39pm Apr 14, 2017 4:39pm
Quoting freakout
Thank you for all replies For the last 4 years I was spending something about 10 hours daily in front of MT4 and for the last 2 years I was trading without any indicators. I know how to trade with trend using HL/LH method as I always want to take a good entry. I know everything about proper money management - I always risk 2% of my account per trade with 1:2 ratio as it's easy to hit and it's the most profitable scenario (confirmed by many excel calculators, etc.). I'm a big fan of japanese candlestick patterns and I always tried to build...

On the technical side I must say:
Repeat Step 1 please. You "know" too much.

But I think it's a mindset problem.
All this mess in your head makes you insecure. You are trading from the place of fear and doubt and maybe...

become methodical!

- stop trying to "win trades"
Trading is not about winning every trade. You do have losers, lot's of, and that is perfectly fine as long as you only take good Risk/Reward trades.
If you take these 1:1 all the time, you lose in the long run.
Example: my "hitrate" this week Monday to Friday was really low: 35%
Result of my week: 360+ green pips, 4,4% net profit.
Method: Strict Risk/Reward requirements. If I don't get 1 Risk : 2 Reward, I don't take the trade. Very often I go for much more than 1:3.
I personaly don't care for "being right" with my trades. I care to make money, and nothing else.

- plan your trades
Before you take a trade you must know where you enter, where you stop and where you target(s) are.
What do you want to achieve with this trade, how long will you stay in, when will you scale up/down...
How much total exposure (total Risk) do you actualy have in the markets...
Plan all your trades before you take them.

- trade what you see
Trade only what you see, NOT what you want to see.
There is no place for "should" or "could" or "hope" in trading.

- Know your job
Accept that losing is normal.
It is NOT your job to win trades!
It IS your job to:
1 - protect capital
2- increase capital (make money)
Focus on your job, and nothing else

- Trust your analysis, trust yourself
when you did your top down analysis and you planned your trade: EXECUTE

- let the market do it's job
you did your TA, you executed your well planned trade, you took your entry, placed your Stop and know your target:
Don't touch it anymore! If you pull your stops too early because fear of losing, or (even worse) if you "snatch profits" just for the sake of winning a trade, you limit your upside and can't compensate your losers. If you do this you lose in the long run.
You have done your job, let the market do the rest. Let it run!
Don't get me wrong, when I aim for a 1:5 and the damn thing turns around early, I do close. But if I do I have technical reasons for it, not emotional reasons.

- be fearless
if you are afraid of losing, you will lose. Because you make mistakes and you make these mistakes because of fear.
(close winners too early, pull Stops too tight and too early...)
Have no fear. Trust yourself!

I hope this helps.

Oh and... yeah... you need the Lion Attitude

CONFIDENCE!
Inserted Video
you are not expected to understand this
  • #19
  • Apr 14, 2017 5:29pm Apr 14, 2017 5:29pm
Hello Freakout,
If I could say something I would say stay persistent because it worths it. You can take some breaks. You can lose some money.Don't give up. History knows a lot of people who failed many times but sooner or later they did it. Like Thomas A. Edison ,Ray Kroc, Elon Musk, Conor McGregor and so on. All of them was persistent. I could recount my stories which I will tell until I get permission to setup new Threads.
Just be persistance and work on it and it comes to you
I wish you the best!
  • #20
  • Apr 14, 2017 5:56pm Apr 14, 2017 5:56pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} On the technical side I must say: Repeat Step 1 please. You "know" too much. But I think it's a mindset problem. All this mess in your head makes you insecure. You are trading from the place of fear and doubt and maybe... become methodical! - stop trying to "win trades" Trading is not about winning every trade. You do have losers, lot's of, and that is perfectly fine as long as you only take good Risk/Reward trades. If you take these 1:1 all the time, you lose in the long run. Example: my "hitrate" this week Monday to Friday was really low:...
thanks, this is very motivating my risk is always the same - 2% per trade with 1:2 ratio - in this case I need only a 40-50% hitrate to be profitable my trading method for the last few months was really simple - I was trading only pinbar pullbacks on H1 or H4 with H4 or D1 trend, but the most important thing is to know where stop loss and take profit should be set... I have a problem with it and maybe that's why most of my trades are losses... I know that I can earn money and I know that I'm only one step away from it, but what I need is to fix "something" and I don't know yet what it is...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
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