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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,841
  • Apr 14, 2017 8:37am Apr 14, 2017 8:37am
"or the other side say enough and do something even more stupid back..."

I guess the fat kid with the bad haircut looks like a viable candidate for that.

But heres hoping its all just chess.
  • #149,842
  • Apr 14, 2017 8:55am Apr 14, 2017 8:55am
Quoting goosebone
"or the other side say enough and do something even more stupid back..." I guess the fat kid with the bad haircut looks like a viable candidate for that. But heres hoping its all just chess.
The two constant bad hairday guys have busy days now. Trump can make a better joke out of that if they ever meet then he managed with Merkel and the wire tapping they had in common.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,843
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:01am Apr 14, 2017 9:01am
Week is about to end in the next few minutes. We have long few pages of discussion so lets start wrapping up with he final questions in the iteration. I will give my final opinion at the end but before:

Now we all called outlooks, maps and trades, lets dig deeper to see if things have changes or remain the same:

Q6: With all Trump, FED, macro numbers, risk, etc. What do you guys thing is the outlook short term for Dollar?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,844
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:05am Apr 14, 2017 9:05am
I am Neutral Dollar and Euro for short term.
  • #149,845
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:05am Apr 14, 2017 9:05am
Quoting IMARICH1
I am Neutral Dollar and Euro for short term.
Why neutral Dollar?
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,846
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:09am Apr 14, 2017 9:09am
Quoting sisse
Week is about to end in the next few minutes. We have long few pages of discussion so lets start wrapping up with he final questions in the iteration. I will give my final opinion at the end but before: Now we all called outlooks, maps and trades, lets dig deeper to see if things have changes or remain the same: Q6: With all Trump, FED, macro numbers, risk, etc. What do you guys thing is the outlook short term for Dollar? sisse
With Trumps domestic plans that were mostly bullish for the dollar looking fuzzier now, plus FED which is bullish dollar, plus macro numbers looking neutral dollar with some bullish exceptions, plus risk which for me is a big blurry question mark where dollar is concerned, id have to say a cautious neutral/bullish.
  • #149,847
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:12am Apr 14, 2017 9:12am
Something has really changed . Tweets and bombs. Russia become the enemy again, China the best friend. And now also Trump is happy with Nato's plans. So still I will keep an buy outlook ST for the rate hike expectations.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,848
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:14am Apr 14, 2017 9:14am
Neutral dollar/soft sell on trump policies

bad: Trump is folding with lack of clear direction; today's flop in inflation wont change the outlook, but listing it here as it will raise short term questions; labor productivity still at the lows.
good: employment trend (excluding a flop here and there) is solid and unemployment rate is at Fed's target and even better; confidence is high
  • #149,849
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:19am Apr 14, 2017 9:19am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} With Trumps domestic plans that were mostly bullish for the dollar looking fuzzier now, plus FED which is bullish dollar, plus macro numbers looking neutral dollar with some bullish exceptions, plus risk which for me is a big blurry question mark where dollar is concerned, id have to say a cautious neutral/bullish.
Good you mentioned most of the points to check. Let me recap the main points and let's try to put some + and - on each for visual reference (obviously you will have to do it yourself)

Short term in order of importance (+ and - out of 3)

-> Monetary Policy (fed, hikes, inflation, balance sheet etc) ===> +++
-> Macroeconomic Factors (employment, strength of the economy, etc) ===> +++
-> Risk Factors (geopolitics French elections, war) ==> ++
-> External factors (politicians interference, currency manipulation, DT tweets etc) ===> - - -

What would be your +++ and --- for each factor ONLY SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS? (for all that replied above)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,850
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:55am Apr 14, 2017 9:55am
I already expressed my view which is Neutral.
  • #149,851
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:59am Apr 14, 2017 9:59am
The key question is what will prevail in the short term till French elections DT tweets or all the other factors... and for me the answer is:

--> Changing short term outlook in Dollar from Neutral to Soft Buy (that will become Strong Buy if triggered over more war in the upcoming days and especially via France, etc).

In my opinion the odds of having a WTF moment on risk as early as a weekend gap down are very high. However, the odds of DT passing in meaningful tax reform or delivering anything from their bullish policies is dramatically changing and for that reason:

-> Changing long term outlook in Dollar from Neutral to Sell .

US administration will need to walk the talk with something real until the next FED hike in order to reconsider this outlook.

Finally, FED hikes and or/balance sheet noise are more than on track. It will be extremely hard to hide (a major flop in numbers this Q maybe) to change the outlook in the mid term:

-> Changing mid term outlook in Dollar from Neutral to Buy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,852
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:02am Apr 14, 2017 10:02am
Quoting forexvert
{quote} what is FA: and TA: mean in your great visual chart?
FA: fundamental analysis
TA: Technical analysis
  • #149,853
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:07am Apr 14, 2017 10:07am
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} FA: fundamental analysis TA: Technical analysis
sorry it was a dumb question, i put the 2 together afterwards, post deleted
  • #149,854
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:16am Apr 14, 2017 10:16am
Now that we have both sides of the equation outlooks (Euro* is all Neutral as discussed previously) we can talk about the Euro iteration.

Only one point is left before we finish this very long (and hopefully useful discussion) is one that we have talk a couple of times already in the thread. This is a bit more advanced discussion so feel free to skip it goes over your interest:

-> Risk hedging & positioning for expected risk events.

Check some back post for US election and UK referendum vote. We call all of them before, during and to the exact 'second' they were raised once the knee jerk reaction/result was over market wise.

---> Some of you asked and explored this before so its nothing new. For the context of the Euro and French election, markets are taking /already took the precautions and hedges. What does it mean trading-wise? Same as last time.

--> Euro (in this case the directly affected...last time was Sterling and Dollar ) WONT fall on French jitters until the results are very clear (or a major fck up) but once we clear it, those risk hedges/positioning will either trigger or dump once the results are clear creating a domino in the short term risk instruments (like it happened back in Nov and Jul).

--> The side of the domino will be trigger depending on the result obviously, either to the risk side of the hedge/positions or just when dumping those positions when we get the 'all clear'. Wide volatility and fast market moves are obviously on a risk trigger rather than in the expected 'normal' results.

Does this mean the Euro wont go down until then ? No. Not necessarily. What it means it won't trigger a major selloff via the Euro* side alone but it can keep moving via Dollar or any non French politics related issues (ECB etc) as normal.

...and for that reasons:

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro from sell to soft sell until further data.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,855
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:17am Apr 14, 2017 10:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why neutral Dollar?
With DT using words to devalue Dollar neutralizing FED as possibly being unable to move separate
w fiscal policy by removing members that may go against his plan will deter strengthening of the dollar.
  • #149,856
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:26am Apr 14, 2017 10:26am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} With DT using words to devalue Dollar neutralizing FED as possibly being unable to move separate w fiscal policy by removing members that may go against his plan will deter strengthening of the dollar.

Sure he will make it hard for USD to rally but not stop it completely as what is the most credible side of the equation ...FED or the unstable president ! markets know where to look for the facts and what is a fact is good macro numbers and coming hikes this year regardless of what Trump could do single handedly .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,857
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:30am Apr 14, 2017 10:30am
Quoting sisse
Now that we have both sides of the equation outlooks (Euro* is all Neutral as discussed previously) we can talk about the Euro iteration. Only one point is left before we finish this very long (and hopefully useful discussion) is one that we have talk a couple of times already in the thread. This is a bit more advanced discussion so feel free to skip it goes over your interest: -> Risk hedging & positioning for expected risk events. Check some back post for US election and UK referendum vote. We call all of them before, during and to the exact 'second'...
thx for clearing the fact about euro* holding during crisis via hedges etc.. and still difficult to predict the zig and the zag for the rest of the year . I will try to speculate less and focus more on my mapping skills.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,858
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:31am Apr 14, 2017 10:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Good you mentioned most of the points to check. Let me recap the main points and let's try to put some + and - on each for visual reference (obviously you will have to do it yourself) Short term in order of importance (+ and - out of 3) -> Monetary Policy (fed, hikes, inflation, balance sheet etc) ===> +++ -> Macroeconomic Factors (employment, strength of the economy, etc) ===> +++ -> Risk Factors (geopolitics French elections, war) ==> ++ -> External factors (politicians interference, currency manipulation, DT tweets etc) ===> - - - What...
Monetary Policy (fed, hikes, inflation, balance sheet etc) ===> ++
-> Macroeconomic Factors (employment, strength of the economy, etc) ===> +
-> Risk Factors (geopolitics French elections, war) ==> -
-> External factors (politicians interference, currency manipulation, DT tweets etc) ===> -

net +

My answer on the risk factors has much to do with the next post you made re: election reaction. I obviously need to understand it all better but it seems that when/if risk is cleared from euro this should be dollar negative.
  • #149,859
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:36am Apr 14, 2017 10:36am
...and I will take in the Yen. Applying don't be a 'dick for tick rule' as its obvious today. Clearing 108.4x target a few ticks above before the close. Well done riding it from the 111.xx handle. Simple and clean ride so far. Only further risk will unlock further levels down...

For now not much to see or do in yen until further data.

Quoting sisse
Quote
i had it as missed a month back.. the risk at +115.62, and a missed norm at 115.61 seemed like a good r/r play for me.. if wrong, i will have egg on my face for 4 pips.. i could tighten up to 3 pips.. i just dont know what the spread will be and may get caught up in a spread widening rollover s/o.

I see your trade in charts ... I will only join you via risk [check]... Losing the current floor unlocks 103.5x with intermediate stop 108.4x [check] ....all very tradable with risk ...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,860
  • Apr 14, 2017 10:47am Apr 14, 2017 10:47am
Without a last minute nuke or tweet. Week is over....

We are rolling 1.062x and as expected since Wednesday tweet we have a double roll play (D and W) and also triggering all entries in the iteration.

Here I keep smelling (and now stinks) blood in the markets.... still not sure where the 'corpse' is ....

Quoting sisse
Thanks all ....table closed +++ TABLE CLOSED final live iteration in the Euro ++++

+++ Opening final live iteration in the Euro ++++

Parité, Consolidé ou Terminé"


=> Long @1.062x STP: 1.052x TP1: 1.078x TP2: 1.086x (top target) TP3: 1.095x +/-max r:r: 1:5

ExForX

kayaker

=> Short @1.062x STP 1.072x TP1 1.046x (bottom target) TP2 1.028x TP3 1.019x +/-max r:r: 1:5

Fadhl

chronical

Pharm0

Earleone

ashenv


=> Neutral No Touch 1.082x or 1.042 until French elections are over +/-max r:r:1:2

pmmebids

goosebone

hoom

Grinsakh

suntan

gazpacho

IMARICH1

PAStalker

eborn


GL ALL trading live the next few weeks...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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