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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,961
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:00pm Apr 5, 2017 2:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled at 20c..great trade foo, way to catch the pullback backasswards. A month b4 the heart of Q1 earnings, could be a good time for a real pullback....
SPX 2,400 calls calendared Apr7/10 look better, will hope for the monster NFP that takes the spoos right to the juiciest part of the P/L booty....currently sitting at 2x....no wtf just happened it droppa 10pts in the last hour?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,962
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:36pm Apr 5, 2017 4:36pm
Quoting The Fool
....no wtf just happened it droppa 10pts in the last hour?
....a little spook from comments in the FOMC minutes, near term I'd still lean bullish especially if the NFP blows up Friday....but we'll see....maybe we'll go back to the "fear the Fed" thing with the old "good news is bad news" and so on....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,963
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:35pm Apr 5, 2017 11:35pm
oh no long vol
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,964
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:25pm Apr 6, 2017 12:25pm
stawks doing what they do after any kind of dip, yawnnnn, I was well positioned for a run back to 2,390+ this week....until the minutes....but here we go again and another big employment number could put me in good shape by Friday close. Been a while since we've seen a 30 pt day, looks like that will be what I need tomorrow.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,965
  • Apr 6, 2017 3:21pm Apr 6, 2017 3:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....a little spook from comments in the FOMC minutes, near term I'd still lean bullish especially if the NFP blows up Friday....but we'll see....maybe we'll go back to the "fear the Fed" thing with the old "good news is bad news" and so on....
I priced the Jun/Sep VXX $30 calls calendar again at 40c mid, I will look for ^vix back in the 10's to get in cheaper, maybe a quarter or less?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,966
  • Apr 6, 2017 3:22pm Apr 6, 2017 3:22pm
I see my old buddy Cecil Gee - are you still trading options, mate?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,967
  • Apr 6, 2017 9:02pm Apr 6, 2017 9:02pm
Trump just killed my shiny trade and started the end of the world at the same time
  • #14,968
  • Apr 6, 2017 9:13pm Apr 6, 2017 9:13pm
yeah I had me hopes on some SPY & SPX call spreads, not looking to good now but they were cheap. I've got some UVXY flys that will make money on any ^vix spike....but generally I am in cash so I might just have to watch the world burn with no hope of crazy pwofits
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,969
  • Apr 6, 2017 9:19pm Apr 6, 2017 9:19pm
if I was scalping I'd be tempted to fade that shiny, it'll prolly be back to $1,250 next week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,970
  • Apr 6, 2017 9:46pm Apr 6, 2017 9:46pm
Quoting The Fool
if I was scalping I'd be tempted to fade that shiny, it'll prolly be back to $1,250 next week....
Ya I'll probably do the same. I am still in my options positions but took a loss on 80% of my shiny futures. 1275 knocks out the rest.
dirty is kicking me in the balls too. My mother in law is no picnic either

rough week
  • #14,971
  • Apr 6, 2017 10:43pm Apr 6, 2017 10:43pm
hang in there dog....more big waves will be good for us
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,972
  • Apr 7, 2017 11:32am Apr 7, 2017 11:32am
XLF 25/26 May 19th call Vertical for 0.07 looks like a good buy to me
  • #14,973
  • Apr 7, 2017 12:43pm Apr 7, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting The Fool
hang in there dog....more big waves will be good for us https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c-Hqe0768A
This made me happy enough to take another whack-a-mole at the shiny

bought more sept 120 puts for 4.30 and shorted futures contracts at 1267.

Added to my yen future and euro shorts too after the nfp spike.

look in to go long AKAM a little lower next week too.

Good swell comin in this weekend. You know where to find me. Aloha
  • #14,974
  • Apr 7, 2017 1:12pm Apr 7, 2017 1:12pm
Quoting charron
XLF 25/26 May 19th call Vertical for 0.07 looks like a good buy to me
mixed signals from the WH re: banking regs rollback - exSquid Cohn even said this week Glass-Steagall is a good idea.... I would not be so sure about further upside for financials just yet...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,975
  • Apr 9, 2017 10:47am Apr 9, 2017 10:47am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/there...040001237.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,976
  • Apr 11, 2017 9:44am Apr 11, 2017 9:44am
wow a .5% down open for the spoos......can we get a steady directional move though?.....at 2,34x we are where we were 2 months ago....the 2,400 double top looking dicier. Not much data....Jolts jobs beat....fear the Fed? Geopoli crazy shit catching up with the market? Is BTFD going to die? Nothing lasts forever. Meanwhile, I am nearly flat. Some bullish weeklies spreads looking worthless.....some long vol flys and calendars out to June looking good but still lotsa time.....I lose interest in flatline markets, which is tough cuz the flatlines will always break.....trying trade directionally in them with weeklies is murder, though....so duration.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,977
  • Apr 11, 2017 11:04am Apr 11, 2017 11:04am
Quoting The Fool
wow a .5% down open for the spoos......can we get a steady directional move though?.....at 2,34x we are where we were 2 months ago....the 2,400 double top looking dicier. Not much data....Jolts jobs beat....fear the Fed? Geopoli crazy shit catching up with the market? Is BTFD going to die? Nothing lasts forever. Meanwhile, I am nearly flat. Some bullish weeklies spreads looking worthless.....some long vol flys and calendars out to June looking good but still lotsa time.....I lose interest in flatline markets, which is tough cuz the flatlines will...

I still don't think its over. These markets like shaking the tree every now and again. I'm gonna keep buying dips into quality levels and selling when we get high on the weekly curve. Ill continue to get my face ripped off here and there but eventually when the market breaks one way or the other Ill hopefully be in it.

Shiny shredding me again but if it hits my loss its acceptable. This shortened/ high news week is a good time for the big boys to make their play. The better R:R is still to the short side on commodities and long on equities.

Glad I loaded up so heavy short the Euro and long the Yen. Both futures contracts are 300+ points in the green on 6:1 and 10:1 R:R's so I don't feel so bad about giving up a nearly 6 digit profit on gold(although my wife feels differently about that).

Just like surfing, miss one wave, there will be another one.
  • #14,978
  • Apr 13, 2017 1:59am Apr 13, 2017 1:59am
Can we bounce now? A few ideas to catch the rebound...will post P/L charts later. IWM calls diagonal - $140/$141, Apr 28/May3....3 centavos

....same idea w/ SPY $239.5/$240 Apr28/May3....also 3c, a better trade with 1/2 the bp hit as IWM - both have maxP a little better than 10x
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,979
  • Apr 13, 2017 8:40pm Apr 13, 2017 8:40pm
Quoting The Fool
Can we bounce now? A few ideas to catch the rebound...will post P/L charts later. IWM calls diagonal - $140/$141, Apr 28/May3....3 centavos ....same idea w/ SPY $239.5/$240 Apr28/May3....also 3c, a better trade with 1/2 the bp hit as IWM - both have maxP a little better than 10x

I'll tell ya. we got the best bombs. the best. so big, so powerful. So powerful. you'll see, we'll drop em on ISIS. it'll be great. don't worry.

we are moving down fast in the financials. maybe too fast? Is like to see the squid back at 200-210 without much basing before to put some bullish spreads on.

or maybe its time to just play vol spikes? can we stay over 15? I'm looking for some credit spreads on spoos and iwm if we get much more volatility.

stocks in play are DOW from current levels if we can base. just a short swing trade. Im still holding some EEM puts, a AXP put spread, old TLT and GLD bullish ratio spreads that are basically insurance, and a bunch of other spreads that are treading water or in the red.
Doesn't look like stocks are really in a great place for a long term position either direction yet. The trump vs yellen war may have us whipping around if he is pressuring for a weaker dollar and she wants to keep driving rates higher.
  • #14,980
  • Apr 14, 2017 12:15am Apr 14, 2017 12:15am
Quoting Wulfgar
or maybe its time to just play vol spikes? can we stay over 15? I'm looking for some credit spreads on spoos and iwm if we get much more volatility............The trump vs yellen war may have us whipping around if he is pressuring for a weaker dollar and she wants to keep driving rates higher.
yeah I will do the same on the short verts but I don't see my premium yet - I like to get net 20-25% the width of the condor wings on each side, will need more juice b4 we see that. Actually I will take a stab at fading the VIX spike shown. The 4/19 $14 puts are 10c....I might also shop short TLT positions...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-04-13_2156VIX.png Size: 82 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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