Supply and Demand trading with Fibs | Page 75 | Forex Factory

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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs

  • #1,481
  • Apr 11, 2017 3:13pm Apr 11, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting Tuk786
This USDCAD 4HR supply is just under the daily supply in the big yellow zone. Might be one to watch tomorrow... with a bit of caution. It's a fresh zone but not original. {image} What are your thoughts Dean? 78.6 and 88.6 running along the zone too.
This is how I have USDCAD supply at the moment.
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  • #1,482
  • Edited 3:53pm Apr 11, 2017 3:19pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} This is how I have USDCAD supply at the moment. {image}
Cool thanks... How would you trade the two most recent zones as they are so close together? Would you put both orders in?

Sorry.. I have too many questions, let me know if I am starting to become a pest haha

In one of your old post, you shared an article saying the quicker price comes back to the zone the higher the chances vs when price been away from zone for too long. As, if banks didn't get all orders filled at the zone they would not wait so long to put there orders in again. Would you say the top two zones been away from zone too long, or reckon there will still be some reaction?

Many thanks
  • #1,483
  • Apr 11, 2017 4:02pm Apr 11, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Tuk786
{quote} Cool thanks... How would you trade the two most recent zones as they are so close together? Would you put both orders in? Sorry.. I have too many questions, let me know if I am starting to become a pest haha In one of your old post, you shared an article saying the quicker price comes back to the zone the higher the chances vs when price been away from zone for too long. As, if banks didn't get all orders filled at the zone they would not wait so long to put there orders in again. Would you say the top two zones been away from zone too long,...
The closest supply is already been used 3 times, so I wouldn't like that area at all.the second area is a little more interesting. The area at the top is at an extreme so there will be sell orders there regardless of time away, but the second area I would like price to return sooner than later yes.
  • #1,484
  • Apr 11, 2017 4:37pm Apr 11, 2017 4:37pm
Quoting deankenny21
One thing I do want to mention to new guys to the forex world too, is that we are in a shortened Holiday week with Good Friday and Easter Monday, so alot of assets will be risk-off and moved to safe havens such as the Japanese Yen and Gold.
I am back to my computer after a long day of work.

The current geopolitical instability is going to intensify the movement to the safe heavens as well (the conflict of USA with Russia and North Korea and also the latest pools in the upcoming French election), we have seen that today on the USD/JPY.

I got F*****, I was thinking that the USD/JPY low would hold a bit better and that I could get some pips from the pull back. It never happen and it went through it like a lead balloon.

I hope that would teach me. I need to be more aware of the news
  • #1,485
  • Apr 11, 2017 8:53pm Apr 11, 2017 8:53pm
GU running...
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  • #1,486
  • Apr 12, 2017 1:46am Apr 12, 2017 1:46am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} The closest supply is already been used 3 times, so I wouldn't like that area at all.the second area is a little more interesting. The area at the top is at an extreme so there will be sell orders there regardless of time away, but the second area I would like price to return sooner than later yes.
Cheers
  • #1,487
  • Apr 12, 2017 1:47am Apr 12, 2017 1:47am
Quoting Cerve
{quote} I am back to my computer after a long day of work. The current geopolitical instability is going to intensify the movement to the safe heavens as well (the conflict of USA with Russia and North Korea and also the latest pools in the upcoming French election), we have seen that today on the USD/JPY. I got F*****, I was thinking that the USD/JPY low would hold a bit better and that I could get some pips from the pull back. It never happen and it went through it like a lead balloon. I hope that would teach me. I need to be more aware of the...
Mind sharing which zone you were talking about? Your last post was on USDCAD
  • #1,488
  • Apr 12, 2017 7:52am Apr 12, 2017 7:52am
Hi guys It seems the AUD/NZD is getting into a supply area.

The only concern is that is not a fresh supply but the AUD is currently weak and under-performing vs other currencies.
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  • #1,489
  • Apr 12, 2017 9:42am Apr 12, 2017 9:42am
GBPUSD Update: I am out for a small half risk loss. Some more good news today for UK was the final bullet, good analysis only going in at half risk.

CADCHF: I am now fully out this trade with all TP taken, just over 3 to 1 reward to risk, very pleased with this one.

Overall very good trading day, I risked 0.12% on the GBPUSD trade and 0.25% on the CADCHF trade, I made +0.81% on the Cadchf and with the loser thats +0.69% overall. See how important risk management is and money management, just as important as trading itself.
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  • #1,490
  • Apr 12, 2017 10:16am Apr 12, 2017 10:16am
Hello DeanKenny,

It's with an immense great pleasure I see you are back! I had been watching this thread regularly with the hope it would revive! There is still so much to learn and share about sup/dem method...
After reading your thread in 10/2016 I started my sup/dem journey and have never looked back since. In those 6 months I took 75 trades with a 68% win ratio, totaling a 27% gain in my portfolio. Worst DD on weekly basis was -2%, monthly -5% (march, bad month for sup dem, low volatility!) RR: always 1:1 but I also keep track of other entry methods (eg 50% of the zone BL ea) and TP methods (eg 1:2 RR being 1 of them). For me the best results are still coming from RR 1:1 with a 1% risk at the moment on each trade, but I am looking to add an entry method with a RR of 1:2 of 1:3 with maybe lesser Win ratio but it will allow me to hit big winners once in a while...

Tonight I will start posting trades and trade opportunities of mine. I am so happy I will finally be able to share!

BTW: beautiful trade on the CADCHF! There is no better feeling when you see price only touching your zone to then rebounce strongly in the opposite direction :-)

Edensgarden
  • #1,491
  • Apr 12, 2017 10:35am Apr 12, 2017 10:35am
Quoting deankenny21
GBPUSD Update: I am out for a small half risk loss. Some more good news today for UK was the final bullet, good analysis only going in at half risk. CADCHF: I am now fully out this trade with all TP taken, just over 3 to 1 reward to risk, very pleased with this one. Overall very good trading day, I risked 0.12% on the GBPUSD trade and 0.25% on the CADCHF trade, I made +0.81% on the Cadchf and with the loser thats +0.69% overall. See how important risk management is and money management, just as important as trading itself. {image}
That was an amazing trade.
I got stopped out with a small profit. I still have a lot to learn.

Thanks for your advice
  • #1,492
  • Apr 12, 2017 2:08pm Apr 12, 2017 2:08pm
Quoting minosd
Hello DeanKenny, It's with an immense great pleasure I see you are back! I had been watching this thread regularly with the hope it would revive! There is still so much to learn and share about sup/dem method... After reading your thread in 10/2016 I started my sup/dem journey and have never looked back since. In those 6 months I took 75 trades with a 68% win ratio, totaling a 27% gain in my portfolio. Worst DD on weekly basis was -2%, monthly -5% (march, bad month for sup dem, low volatility!) RR: always 1:1 but I also keep track of other entry...
Hi Edensgarden, and very big welcome, so happy to hear about your great success from Supply and demand. Even happier to see that you have you psycology in check with 68% win ratio you obviously have some losers, but looks like this does not phase you and you get on with the task at hand and the next possible setup. You've made my day on what has been a very quiet day in the markets thank you Very much looking forward to your charts and analysis.


Quoting Cerve
{quote} That was an amazing trade. I got stopped out with a small profit. I still have a lot to learn. Thanks for your advice
Hi Cerve, as I always say, profit is profit, and something I was told when I was young small+small=big

Always keep a record of your trades and look back at how different you could've handled it, I put my stops at BE, and had a solid TP at the beginning of the down move, we had a very small retrace, so does make me wonder where you moved your SL to come out with a small profit Either way, good job and keep it up.
  • #1,493
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:08pm Apr 12, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Hi Edensgarden, and very big welcome, so happy to hear about your great success from Supply and demand. Even happier to see that you have you psycology in check with 68% win ratio you obviously have some losers, but looks like this does not phase you and you get on with the task at hand and the next possible setup. You've made my day on what has been a very quiet day in the markets thank you Very much looking forward to your charts and analysis. {quote} Hi Cerve, as I always say, profit is profit, and something I was told when...

Thanks for the feedback.

I am going in with the GBP/USD. I think it is a good opportunity, it seems overpriced and there is a big supply to hold the upside move.
This time I am going to double the size of the position and have 2 different target, 1 small (to cover loses) and another a bit more ambitious.

There is no significant Fib level because we are at the top.

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  • #1,494
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:13pm Apr 12, 2017 3:13pm
If you are in this eurcad off the daily demand + 61.8 fib we are over 70 pips up right now, stops to BE or +20-30 and aiming for full TP at the 4hr supply just above.
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  • #1,495
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:16pm Apr 12, 2017 3:16pm
Missed my entry on demand here by 15 or so pips. Watching closely.
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  • #1,496
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:19pm Apr 12, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting deankenny21
If you are in this eurcad off the daily demand + 61.8 fib we are over 70 pips up right now, stops to BE or +20-30 and aiming for full TP at the 4hr supply just above. {image}
Dean. You make it look so simple...quite unbelievable
  • #1,497
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:20pm Apr 12, 2017 3:20pm
Answer to a question in PM

"Hi Dean Kenny, thanks so much for that CADCHF trade, I have not taken any profits yet and unsure what to do. I see you have now taken full profits, can you tell me why you are not aiming any higher"

I would prefer to answer this publicly as to not only help the PM but also all those that are following. If we move up to daily on the CADCHF we have entered a "DAILY" supply. Which I am not going to war against, so 3:1 trade will do me just fine Always remember to check the bigger picture.
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  • #1,498
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:22pm Apr 12, 2017 3:22pm
Quoting kfarawi
{quote} Dean. You make it look so simple...quite unbelievable
IT truly honestly is, I am a bad teacher unfortunately Hence why I can probably trade haha. But honestly spotting zones and taking the fib confluence is alot simpler than all these charts that look like christmas trees with 100 indicators waiting to all line up at once. Hence why I like to post my charts before zones are met and then post the updates, to show that it is truly that easy. What isn't easy though as we have seen past couple pages, is trade management and psycology once in the trade. That's what seems to make or break a profitable to unprofitable trader.

As of now, 78 Traders viewing. C'mon guys, I really don't want to be just a signal service, lets get some posts, questions, charts etc
  • #1,499
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:36pm Apr 12, 2017 3:36pm
Waiting for the right price action on 15min to enter this based on my analysis yesterday. Cerve has noticed it too

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This supply may fail due to the bullish engulf heading to the zone... just a warning
  • #1,500
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:49pm Apr 12, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Hi Edensgarden, and very big welcome, so happy to hear about your great success from Supply and demand. Even happier to see that you have you psycology in check with 68% win ratio you obviously have some losers, but looks like this does not phase you and you get on with the task at hand and the next possible setup. You've made my day on what has been a very quiet day in the markets thank you Very much looking forward to your charts and analysis.
You made my day too!

I've attached a Daily chart of AUD CHF on which I took the SL last week (to the pip) and took a BL last friday, closed yesterday at BE 'cause is taking to long.
Another one is the GBPCHF I took last week, also on Daily, see supply zone.
Last one is AUD CAD 4H, taken last week on a 4H chart this time/

I am looking at:
AUD CAD 8H opp (I like it when price tends to be in balance red/blue/red/blue and then suddenly break out! Those are the best zones)
EURUSD DAILY opp: easy to spot, you only need to watch for the strong moves away from a zone that give you something that is not in proportion with the other candels
USDJPY WEEKLY OPP: this is LT but the order is there and going to stay there until zone is hit :-D
USDCAD DAIL OPP: zone was hit before, but being a big one I tried an entry at 30% retrace, did not make it :-) but will try again if it moves back up (with the trend, big supply zone on all the Time frames)

I will post regularly what I see and what happens to my trades ;-) Most of the zones are identified on sunday afternoon!

Edensgarden
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