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Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

  • #221
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:38am Apr 12, 2017 3:38am
Quoting mattkirby
{quote} Hi Gold, could you tell me what's the next two ZScores after 2.576?
Hi Matt,

Highest significant z score is 2.58, which covers %99 of the data..If you need more coverage than you should search the web for a z score table...

Goof Luck...
  • #222
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:39am Apr 12, 2017 3:39am
Quoting imran.78p
the davinci code of Market
Hi imran,

Such a huge compliment, thank you very much
  • #223
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:55am Apr 12, 2017 3:55am
Quoting mattkirby
{quote} Hi Gold, could you tell me what's the next two ZScores after 2.576?
after 2.576 Zscore, 99% confidence; next Zscore is 2.807, 99.5%; 3.091, 99.8%; 3.291, 99.9%

But, market is evail with "Skew". Small probability event often run out to kill/clear market.
If bet on 2.807, 3.091, 3.291 event occur, then random walk happen again?
  • #224
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:58am Apr 12, 2017 3:58am
Quoting JKLee
Hi GoldTheHun, I placed 28 pending limit orders following your strategy tonight. Let's see how it goes. audcad sell audchf sell audjpy sell audnzd sell audusd sell cadchf buy cadjpy buy chfjpy sell euraud buy eurcad sell eurchf sell eurgbp sell eurjpy sell eurnzd sell eurusd sell gbpaud buy gbpcad sell gbpchf buy gbpjpy sell gbpnzd buy gbpusd buy nzdcad sell nzdchf buy nzdjpy sell nzdusd buy usdcad sell usdchf sell usdjpy sell
Any conclusion of yesterday trades ?

thanks

SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #225
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:01am Apr 12, 2017 4:01am
Quoting Jack168
{quote} after 2.576 Zscore, 90% confidence; next Zscore is 2.807, 99.5%; 3.091, 99.8%; 3.291, 99.9% But, market is evail with "Skew". Small probability event often run out to kill/clear market. If bet on 2.807, 3.091, 3.291 event occur, then random walk happen again?

Jack z score of 2.576 is %99...The nex ones are insignificant because that will happen 3-4 times a year, so it is nothing to worry about. Random walk has nothing to do with z scores. Z Scores are just used to find the boundaries of the random walk.

You should search for an article explaining the random walk in detail.

Good Luck...
  • #226
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:01am Apr 12, 2017 4:01am
Quoting Jack168
{quote} after 2.576 Zscore, 99% confidence; next Zscore is 2.807, 99.5%; 3.091, 99.8%; 3.291, 99.9% But, market is evail with "Skew". Small probability event often run out to kill/clear market. If bet on 2.807, 3.091, 3.291 event occur, then random walk happen again?
Thanks, just want to play around a little with these numbers.......
  • #227
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:07am Apr 12, 2017 4:07am
GoldTheHun, respect for sharing your system to the wide public. I just want to put a remark about the randomness you are referring to in your first post. The buys and the sells are always trying to level out their balance. This is clearly visible when one is looking and the buy/sell candles on H1, for example. Maybe this is from where the randomness idea comes from?

The reality is quite different, however. In longer term, there is a sell moment, followed by a buy one, who is almost equal (identical) in continuity (time) and in pips (not always the same, might be 1/2 or 1 1/2 in pips wise) with the previous sell moment. This is valid for almost all time frames. Here are two examples on GBPUSD on H4.
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Attached Image


EDIT: That has definitely nothing to do with market or rates being random. Right now I am trying to count and catch the moment of direction switch, when they level the balance out. So far, I am only trying
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #228
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:17am Apr 12, 2017 4:17am
Quoting MoneyZilla
GoldTheHun, respect for sharing your system to the wide public. I just want to put a remark about the randomness you are referring to in your first post. The buys and the sells are always trying to level out their balance. This is clearly visible when one is looking and the buy/sell candles on H1, for example. Maybe this is from where the randomness idea comes from? The reality is quite different, however. In longer term, there is a sell moment, followed by a buy one, who is almost equal (identical) in continuity (time) and in pips (not always the...
I heard that volatility and volatility cycle can be forecast. So, these volatility extreme levels will be good turning point after volatility is exhausted in its cycle.
  • #229
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:20am Apr 12, 2017 4:20am
Today, usd-jpy has hit Weekly Support 2 level.

Can weekly sup 0 level become a good resistance level?
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  • #230
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:27am Apr 12, 2017 4:27am
Quoting MoneyZilla
GoldTheHun, respect for sharing your system to the wide public. I just want to put a remark about the randomness you are referring to in your first post. The buys and the sells are always trying to level out their balance. This is clearly visible when one is looking and the buy/sell candles on H1, for example. Maybe this is from where the randomness idea comes from? The reality is quite different, however. In longer term, there is a sell moment, followed by a buy one, who is almost equal (identical) in continuity (time) and in pips (not always the...
Hi MZ,

Thanks for your input. The more higher time frames you trade, the less effect you will see from randomness.. But obviously higher time frames consist of of lower time frames which are random %70 to %80 of the time. The only time it breaks randomness is when the big capital decides to move the prices higher or lower to a certain target. This is called the trend (or drift in random walk theory).

Since we never know what the real intentions of the big money, we try to sense their intentions or read their minds. I believe this is called the technical analysis. That is why technical analysis is a %50-%50 guessing game (guessing what the big capital wants to do). Unfortunately that is why we are late most of the times..

Big money has to deceive the rest of the traders so that they can make their money. If everybody buys or sells there is no money to be made because there are no losers.. So deception is the name of the game. They make you think the prices going up, make people excited so they buy thinking that they are missing on the action, than booom the big money sells and the late comers are left in the dust..
Since this is the game, we should adapt accordingly. Always question the reason for a strong move.
Is it a valid move?
Are there reasons for this move? etc...

Good Luck...
  • #231
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:31am Apr 12, 2017 4:31am
Quoting Jack168
Today, usd-jpy has hit Weekly Support 2 level. Can weekly sup 0 level become a good resistance level? {image}

Jack,

Most of the times support becomes resistance and vice versa. One has to pay attention though. If support becomes a resistance and holds that means market is weakening. If resistance becomes support, market is strengthening...

Good Luck
  • #232
  • Apr 12, 2017 5:42am Apr 12, 2017 5:42am
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} Any conclusion of yesterday trades ? thanks SB
slowbrain, 13 pairs were executed and the results are as following,

audnzd -$11.22
cadjpy -$20.13
euraud $54.20
nzdusd $6.20
nzdchf -$15.90
cadchf -$14.51
cadjpy -$20.13
eurcad -$15.44
eurchf $7.44
eurusd $12.30
eurnzd-$22.91
nzdchf-$15.90
usdca d$7.50

total: -$48.50

Thank you.
FOR THE HORDE
  • #233
  • Apr 12, 2017 5:44am Apr 12, 2017 5:44am
Some basic rules for the current day trend (direction to trade using levels):

New High of the day is made:
As long as price doesn't make a new low, trade long using bounces from levels (retracements). Make sure you have enough room and time left to reach your TP.

New Low of the day is made:
As long as price doesn't make a new high, trade short using bounces from levels (retracements). Make sure you have enough room and time left to reach your TP.

My 2 cents...

Good Luck...
  • #234
  • Apr 12, 2017 5:48am Apr 12, 2017 5:48am
Quoting JKLee
{quote} slowbrain, 13 pairs were executed and the results are as following, audnzd -$11.22 cadjpy -$20.13 euraud $54.20 nzdusd $6.20 nzdchf -$15.90 cadchf -$14.51 cadjpy -$20.13 eurcad -$15.44 eurchf $7.44 eurusd $12.30 eurnzd-$22.91 nzdchf-$15.90 usdca d$7.50 total: -$48.50 Thank you.
Hi JKLee,

I honestly don't recommend entering trades blindly, without considering the bias for the day and watching the price action. But of course it is your money and decision.
I have to emphasize that this is not a trading system, it is just a road map or a guide, showing the potentials. How one use these levels depends on his/her creativity.

Good Luck...
  • #235
  • Apr 12, 2017 7:02am Apr 12, 2017 7:02am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Yes, you're right. The indicator is written for the TF=5 min only. It would be slightly more complicated if one wanted to use it in other TFs (so MTF type indicator). Specifically the problem is here: double atr=iCustom(Symbol(),PERIOD_M5,"ATR-Close",1440,0,i); The iterator i is TF-dependent. I'll see how to try to sort this out. Note also that to use this on daily TF one will need to have many candles in the M5 graph... Best, k
Hi kprsa,

Since you are talented coder, I would like to ask you the following question:
Is it possible for you to change the code so that we take the volatility figure from the "ATR-Close" indicator from each day's open time and use that figure fixed for that day?
In other words, we take the volatility figure at the time of the open of the day, let's say at 00:00 hours (if the daily open is at 00:00 hour), and use that for that day.
This way we can see the past days levels more or less correctly (not %100 of course).
I don't know if I could make myself clear..

Please advise..
Thanks..
  • #236
  • Apr 12, 2017 7:57am Apr 12, 2017 7:57am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Hi JKLee, I honestly don't recommend entering trades blindly, without considering the bias for the day and watching the price action. But of course it is your money and decision. I have to emphasize that this is not a trading system, it is just a road map or a guide, showing the potentials. How one use these levels depends on his/her creativity. Good Luck...
Thanks for your kind advise. Yesterday, I wanted to watch how many pairs touch the 23.6/78.4 level and rebound. Today, I have better results so far.

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FOR THE HORDE
  • #237
  • Apr 12, 2017 8:04am Apr 12, 2017 8:04am
Quoting JKLee
{quote} Thanks for your kind advise. Yesterday, I wanted to watch how many pairs touch the 23.6/78.4 level and rebound. Today, I have better results so far. {image} {image} {image}
Glad to hear that JKLee and thanks for sharing your charts..

But I will repeat the warning again (might sound boring). Please never trade your hard earned money blindly. If you are selective and watch the price action before entering, I assure you that you will end up in green....
On the third chart, try to guaranty some profit, just in case... All 3 trades look magnificent by the way...

Good Luck....
  • #238
  • Apr 12, 2017 9:54am Apr 12, 2017 9:54am
Hi GoldTheHunt.

I have made my first test base on your system.

Entry taken for EURCAD.
I have checked the trend bias at TF H1 & H4 and shows a clear down trend.
The price position starts at fib retracement level and I decided to make a breakout entry at this level due to higher TF bias (chart shown below).
I didn't wait price to go up to D1 Res[0] in this case.

Setup:
Entry : Break at Lower Fib Retracement Level.
SL : 30pips
TP : 2 pips above D1 Sup[0]
Monitoring comment : Set and Forget.

I hope this approach didn't against your trading rules. Pls correct me if I'm wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Game of Probabilities.
  • #239
  • Apr 12, 2017 9:57am Apr 12, 2017 9:57am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Hi kprsa, Since you are talented coder, I would like to ask you the following question: Is it possible for you to change the code so that we take the volatility figure from the "ATR-Close" indicator from each day's open time and use that figure fixed for that day? In other words, we take the volatility figure at the time of the open of the day, let's say at 00:00 hours (if the daily open is at 00:00 hour), and use that for that day. This way we can see the past days levels more or less correctly (not %100 of course). I don't know if I could...
The pivot indicator for TF=5 min does exactly that.
Are you referring to the calculation for other TFs?
k
  • #240
  • Apr 12, 2017 10:04am Apr 12, 2017 10:04am
Quoting rolan49
Hi GoldTheHunt. I have made my first test base on your system. Entry taken for EURCAD. I have checked the trend bias at TF H1 & H4 and shows a clear down trend. The price position starts at fib retracement level and I decided to make a breakout entry at this level due to higher TF bias (chart shown below). I didn't wait price to go up to D1 Res[0] in this case. Setup: Entry : Break at Lower Fib Retracement Level. SL : 30pips TP : 2 pips above D1 Sup[0] Monitoring comment : Set and Forget. I hope this approach didn't against your trading rules. Pls...
Hi rolan,

Thank you for sharing your trade. It looks like very good entry. Your trend assessment was perfect.. But my personal taste would be to enter at the first red bar. But you made a profit, that is a success.. Congrats.

There is no clear cut rules here, as long as you don't enter short below or at 23 and enter long above or at 78. The market could be matured for the day at those levels, and you wouldn't have enough room left for your profit target.

Good Luck...
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