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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,601
  • Apr 11, 2017 11:47pm Apr 11, 2017 11:47pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} To narrow SL IMO .
i know still taking a new risk ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,602
  • Apr 12, 2017 12:14am Apr 12, 2017 12:14am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Will scale in if 1.0650 is seen today .
.065 seems like a good place to have a short position.
Considering both SMA 50 and R3 on pivot level at this point.
i think I'll place a trailing spot here too.
  • #149,603
  • Apr 12, 2017 12:24am Apr 12, 2017 12:24am
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} .065 seems like a good place to have a short position. Considering both SMA 50 and R3 on pivot level at this point. i think I'll place a trailing spot here too.
Im long to 1.650...and then plan on a short from there
  • #149,604
  • Apr 12, 2017 1:39am Apr 12, 2017 1:39am
Stopped out ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,605
  • Edited 3:36am Apr 12, 2017 3:24am | Edited 3:36am
Quoting gatorinla
i have the uj going to 1.0876... but b4 i have an outside chance for another entry 111.14/60 area.. not a recommendation for a long.. but i did place pending shorts there.. ..
outside chance above gets greater above and closer to 1.0798. not that its a long recommendation. that outside chance is a smaller setup within 1.087x setup. in the smaller setup 111.14 is due b4 1.079x .. in a even greater larger setup larger than these. 111.62 is a/ or could be a large R... i am down to 25% of my trade from 111.5x... trade right below R is harder for me to hold. if i hadn't missed the 115.6 trade my stops would be slightly above 112..








5
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,606
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:35am Apr 12, 2017 3:35am
my u.s. ip seems to be blocked from many sights.. i like meta for its ease and my familiarity on using it to post. if anyone cares to do me a favor. set me up a new meta demo, on oanada.. i need the password, (user name #) pm please..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,607
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:40am Apr 12, 2017 3:40am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Do you mean money will flow from Yen and Gold to Dollar based on the high risk level?
Anyone has an understanding of what Sisse meant by this:
Watch-out major risk off with Yen, Gold and if we get the real deal today/tomorrow Dollar. Here a very active session, and fully locked and loaded across the board. sisse
  • #149,608
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:42am Apr 12, 2017 3:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} outside chance above gets greater above and closer to 1.0798. not that its a long recommendation. that outside chance is a smaller setup within 1.087x setup. in the smaller setup 111.14 is due b4 1.079x .. in a even greater larger setup larger than these. 111.62 is a/ or could be a large R... i am down to 25% of my trade from 111.5x... trade right below R is harder for me to hold. if i hadn't missed the 115.6 trade my stops would be slightly above 112.. 5
this particular outside setup is against trend and pulls away from 087x norm.. odds probably increase after 087x and above 0798.. nevertheless, when, how, or if, i dont know. just saying its there with 111.6x tested very little from below atm for such a big level..
111.14 is probably hard to notice on a day chart or larger..
if or when/where uj has an up day will probably determine the length of the next down move. w/o any change.. going toward 111.6 to test. has the potential drop after near 500
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,609
  • Apr 12, 2017 3:49am Apr 12, 2017 3:49am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Anyone has an understanding of what Sisse meant by this: Watch-out major risk off with Yen, Gold and if we get the real deal today/tomorrow Dollar. Here a very active session, and fully locked and loaded across the board. sisse
That if there is high risk, then money would go into Dollar, I think.
  • #149,610
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:02am Apr 12, 2017 4:02am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Anyone has an understanding of what Sisse meant by this: Watch-out major risk off with Yen, Gold and if we get the real deal today/tomorrow Dollar. Here a very active session, and fully locked and loaded across the board. sisse
I think we are still at number 2, We already see that money has moved strongly in to Gold and Yen.

-> Soft risk -> Gold
-> Medium risk -> Gold -> Yen/(CHF less now that is a quasi fix CB rate) -> Dollar ->
-> High risk -> Dollar -> Treasuries (German Bonds)
-> Extreme panic -> Treasuries as ultimate haven.

2
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,611
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:04am Apr 12, 2017 4:04am
...That was it for the European session. A relatively calm session, only highlight come from the UK. Macro numbers keep creeping down while inflation is pointing to a sharp overshoot if things don't stop very soon. Oil rallying before the winter can be catastrophic...

On the rest of the board, nothing new...NY with the upper hand for prolly the last few sessions before most markets head home for an extended holiday. If we are going to have a mover this week is today with NY, otherwise we'll enter in v. thin markets in tweet mode (given France and Trump) till next week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,612
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:07am Apr 12, 2017 4:07am
I'm sorry for my sloppy TA, but i think the graph is showing the same as some of you guys are discussing here, (Euro strength from Q3-4). So, i think we might easy get to see parity in quick and short lived move and then looking for the LT bottom. Chart is definitely giving a lot of hints
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd monthly.PNG Size: 68 KB
  • #149,613
  • Apr 12, 2017 4:10am Apr 12, 2017 4:10am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Anyone has an understanding of what Sisse meant by this: Watch-out major risk off with Yen, Gold and if we get the real deal today/tomorrow Dollar. Here a very active session, and fully locked and loaded across the board. sisse
gold may get toppy after 1282.9x/1375.. i would wait for direction after. near 1283 it may change personality..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,614
  • Edited 5:53am Apr 12, 2017 5:11am | Edited 5:53am
Short Term:
All i got for *euro upside is Fr elections (obv theres some potential for huge downside too but not expected). There's a ECB meeting in there as well but most likely no rabbit in that hat.
*dollar has a couple small ways to please (inflation, Border tax chatter could start up again at some point here, Hawkish Fedspeak, etc) but few ways to dissapoint (an obvious fail on dom. policy front perhaps? Kind of been there done that, Idk) Those factors are obviously dwarfed by geopol risk but that flow seems limited to yen, gold, govt bonds for now, and not all that huge at the moment. Turns on a tweet of course.

So it seems *Euro would be driving the pair to a higher degree, and the election expectations would be spelling out that direction to a higher degree, if it werent for geopol risk now potentially bleeding over from gold/yen to dollar/treasuries.
I think thats why eu sits in this 60 pip range for 3 days. Not that the range is so strange, just that it will stay until something sways expectations one way or the other with the election in France or with war risk in the US. Or both.
  • #149,615
  • Apr 12, 2017 6:46am Apr 12, 2017 6:46am
...unconfirmed rumours of major clear out in London Euro @1.061x ....take it with a pinch of salt as it's just 'lunch conversations noise' ..but it looks cook too for the long weekend. Keeping a very close eye on the floor to complete the test 1.054x before we enter in key areas one more time ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,616
  • Apr 12, 2017 7:12am Apr 12, 2017 7:12am
Melenchon seems to be the one to watch for the moment riskwise. Whether or not the attention he gets is limited to what he can rob from Hamon. If its enough to make him look even remotely viable going into crunchtime.
Would be worst case scenario as spelled out by @Replicant here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...76#post9740076
  • #149,617
  • Apr 12, 2017 8:33am Apr 12, 2017 8:33am
Yes somehow, but hopefully Medias have now started to explain in details Melenchons programme (which could be summed up as Cuba without the sun). Before Medias were not speaking at all about his programme but just about the fact he was a great orator with a great capacity for forthright repartee after his performance in the two debates (debates were poor, a lot of postures, no deep discussion, a rethoric contest, it was perfect for Melenchon).

Some polling organisations are now testing all the possibilities for the second round, and I have to update what I wrote earlier as I was wrong on some cases (I will not make further update as I don't want to spam/spoil the thread with polls results that anyway will move every day).

Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} 6 possibilities now for the second round Macron/Fillon : No Risk (both EU/Euro friendly) Macron/Le Pen : Very low risk (huge margin for Macron in the polls for the second round) Macron/Melenchon : Very low risk (not tested in the polls so far but would be the same, margin could be even wider as Le Pens & Fillons voters hate Melenchon) Fillon/Le Pen : Low/Medium Risk (Le Pen could win because of Fillons fake job scandal) Fillon/Melenchon : Low/Medium Risk (Melenchon could win because of Fillons fake job scandal) Le Pen/Melenchon :...
6 possibilities now for the second round

Macron/Fillon : No Risk (both EU/Euro friendly)
Macron/Le Pen : Very low risk (huge margin for Macron in the polls for the second round)
Macron/Melenchon : Very low risk Medium/High Risk(not tested in the polls so far but would be the same, margin could be even wider as Le Pens & Fillons voters hate Melenchon tested now, quite tight, small margin for Macron to win)
Fillon/Le Pen : Low/Medium Risk (Le Pen could win because of Fillons fake job scandal, Fillon to win, margin has increased)
Fillon/Melenchon : Low/Medium Risk Very High Risk (Melenchon could win because of Fillons fake job scandal, Polls show Melenchon winning with a wide margin !!)
Le Pen/Melenchon : Super Risk (Le Pen is anti EU/Euro & Melenchon has planned to ask crazy things to EU and, if they are not accepted, to leave Euro. Also, best chances for Le Pen to win in that case as Fillons voters hate Melenchon Tested now and Melenchon to win with a wide margin )

Some links for french polls for those interested :

OpinionWay Poll for Les Echos (Financial Newspaper) (daily, usually update between 11am et 1pm GMT+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/pr...le-2062937.php

IFOP Poll for Paris Match (Magazine) (daily, usually update at 6pm GMT+1)
http://www.parismatch.com/La-preside...-en-temps-reel

BVA Poll for a group of local newspapers (weekly poll, every friday/saturday)
http://www.pop2017.fr/intentions-vote

Elabe Poll for BFMTV Channel (daily/every two days, they test the 6 possibilities for the second round)
http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/sonda...e-1140292.html
  • #149,618
  • Apr 12, 2017 8:51am Apr 12, 2017 8:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} watching usdx 100.92 atm close side and eu 0616.. i still have room today.. not expecting much w/o these closes. even a 1 h may help. i suspect these will act as some s/r next week
eu test week as i type.. uj was/is 110.75... eu london may have missed its chance to bull past 1.0616.5 with the pipet below.. possible little bear indication..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,619
  • Apr 12, 2017 9:00am Apr 12, 2017 9:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu test week as i type.. uj was/is 110.75... eu london may have missed its chance to bull past 1.0616.5 with the pipet below.. possible little bear indication..
getting disappointed in usdx atm.. 101.52 untouched.. the eu little bear may help... it may still print a LL on eu this week. before the bounce.. i still hope it pushes the uj 111.14/62 before drop..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,620
  • Apr 12, 2017 9:05am Apr 12, 2017 9:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu test week as i type.. uj was/is 110.75... eu london may have missed its chance to bull past 1.0616.5 with the pipet below.. possible little bear indication..
Uj was / is 110.75. Is this typo or something which i cant decipher.
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