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  • #149,541
  • Apr 10, 2017 4:53am Apr 10, 2017 4:53am
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Gator, 111.66 looks like a small norm, which is missed?
its a place on a larger scale. that may develop into R.. i have some post about it.. the q also closed below it.. so it may hold..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,542
  • Apr 10, 2017 5:07am Apr 10, 2017 5:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its a place on a larger scale. that may develop into R.. i have some post about it.. the q also closed below it.. so it may hold..
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...88#post9443388 going to 108.x still dont avoid the missed 6x.xx. one reason i am taking equities rise from here with a skeptical view. at least in the st uj 108 should weigh on equities. or much further.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,543
  • Apr 10, 2017 5:18am Apr 10, 2017 5:18am
usdx never reached 101.52.. high at 101.35.. still room for a usd a little higher usually the minimal norm. euro is the greater % of usdx. so the current eu low may not hold on a usdx stretch to 101.52... the average used to be equal to 1 usd pip for 2.1 eu pips.. or about 36ish eu pips lower than current low..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,544
  • Apr 10, 2017 5:33am Apr 10, 2017 5:33am
back to my rock.. check back later or not.. gluck
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,545
  • Apr 10, 2017 5:42am Apr 10, 2017 5:42am
Eyes on CAD today ...any soft pullback in Dollar this week could trigger a major swing ...same 1.340x since January in play ...

Quoting The Fool
{quote}US equities will grind back to the double top until the next tweet or headline or surprise apocalypse. Chances of the latter increases every week so I will be shopping long volatility while it's cheap....
Same page here...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,546
  • Apr 10, 2017 10:16am Apr 10, 2017 10:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} watching usdx 100.92 atm close side and eu 0616.. i still have room today.. not expecting much w/o these closes. even a 1 h may help. i suspect these will act as some s/r next week
i dont know for sure.. if the eu and uj are going to retrace some b4 ... these areas probably offer some s/r this week.. its still possible for the uj to test 111.6x.. but not doing so is not critical.. 111.6x is just a R.. not a norm or a target.. eu has done its minimal norm.. usdx still has room to push eu down some and uj up a little more. if so, those above posted numbers may be that point.. on the uj that place is 110.75... its possible that 111.6x entry will still happen.. std later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,547
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:26am Apr 10, 2017 11:26am
PTL, sisse, g, u guys are still around... what a mess

hope u r fine...

U/C just popped south, 3300 might be in play. I personally wont underestimate easter holidays... 2 days off in germany, but still 4 days a week to trade at frankfurt stock exchange.

Edit: These days I am short AUD, long CAD+YEN, flat on Pound and U$...

best,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #149,548
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:29am Apr 10, 2017 11:29am
Quoting PhAnTi'
PTL, sisse, g, u guys are still around... what a mess hope u r fine... U/C just popped south, 3300 might be in play. I personally wont underestimate easter holidays... 2 days off in germany, but still 4 days a week to trade at frankfurt stock exchange. Edit: These days I am short AUD, long CAD+YEN, flat on Pound and U$... best, Jonas
Hey PhanTi ,long time h r u ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,549
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:35am Apr 10, 2017 11:35am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Hey PhanTi ,long time h r u ....
hey mate, indeed....

pretty fine to be honest. Finished my bachelors degree in economics and still working for local bank. Masters degree ahead, moved with girlfriend to Stuttgart, catched a cool appartment, still passionate about forex :-D....

How about u dude?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #149,550
  • Apr 10, 2017 11:42am Apr 10, 2017 11:42am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} hey mate, indeed.... pretty fine to be honest. Finished my bachelors degree in economics and still working for local bank. Masters degree ahead, moved with girlfriend to Stuttgart, catched a cool appartment, still passionate about forex :-D.... How about u dude?
Ofcourse u are passionate about forex I know that ... Good to hear about the bachelor degree and girlfriend too .. all the very best for masters degree and pretty much sure you are going to deal with it very easily ... I m good ... Thankx struggling with green pips hehehe but got to learn a lot from sisse and everyone in the thread on the FA side ... On behalf of everyone in the thread I would love to see you around in ur free time to join us to create some more mess hehehe
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,551
  • Apr 10, 2017 12:36pm Apr 10, 2017 12:36pm
A very dull day across the board as it was suspected. We are set for an irrelevant closing session.

Very little to track until UK inflation for Sterling* and UK equities plays...until then

sisse

Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} hey mate, indeed.... pretty fine to be honest. Finished my bachelors degree in economics and still working for local bank. Masters degree ahead, moved with girlfriend to Stuttgart, catched a cool appartment, still passionate about forex :-D.......
Hey, nice to see you around..many smart people are moving to Germany and a lot more will in the upcoming months. Right place and right time to be there .

Pop by in the thread, we have plenty of v. good market talk and growing the last few months ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,552
  • Apr 10, 2017 1:44pm Apr 10, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
PTL, sisse, g, u guys are still around... what a mess hope u r fine...best, Jonas
Hey man, good to see you drop by, glad to read that all is going well...stop by from time to time, we usually leave a light on...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #149,553
  • Apr 10, 2017 2:19pm Apr 10, 2017 2:19pm
Hello once again to everyone! I see many smart and experienced traders here so I thought this is the most appropriate place to ask my following question. I came across a proposed method for determining what type of market we are currently in (https://pepperstone.com/uk/client-re...g-market-types). What do you think, is this actually something statistically useful or after the fact nonsense?
  • #149,554
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:49pm Apr 10, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont know for sure.. if the eu and uj are going to retrace some b4 ... these areas probably offer some s/r this week.. its still possible for the uj to test 111.6x.. but not doing so is not critical.. 111.6x is just a R.. not a norm or a target.. eu has done its minimal norm.. usdx still has room to push eu down some and uj up a little more. if so, those above posted numbers may be that point.. on the uj that place is 110.75... its possible that 111.6x entry will still happen.. std later
uj attacking 110.75 atm.. day closed above,, no h below close atm.. i am bearish, but here is where a scalp bounce may be in order..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,555
  • Apr 10, 2017 4:38pm Apr 10, 2017 4:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} uj attacking 110.75 atm.. day closed above,, no h below close atm.. i am bearish, but here is where a scalp bounce may be in order..
last h closed 3 pipets above the 110.75.1 i am using. so i dont consider last h a close below. although the st bears haven't given up. still early week.. with usdx having the ability to bounce the usd before a swan song. some redistribution/equalization of pairs...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,556
  • Apr 10, 2017 5:13pm Apr 10, 2017 5:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last h closed 3 pipets above the 110.75.1 i am using. so i dont consider last h a close below. although the st bears haven't given up. still early week.. with usdx having the ability to bounce the usd before a swan song. some redistribution/equalization of pairs...
last h closed below.. i closed 1/2 my uj shorts on the 110.62 touch.. although i do expect 108.x and less.. will reload on a bounce test 111.6x.. pairs like the 100 pip rule..
nothing to do now except check in now and again
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,557
  • Apr 10, 2017 8:46pm Apr 10, 2017 8:46pm
eu 0555 is 61.8 retrace. also bottom mofu and pa level on weekly.
  • #149,558
  • Apr 11, 2017 2:30am Apr 11, 2017 2:30am
Quoting Deitreider
Hello once again to everyone! I see many smart and experienced traders here so I thought this is the most appropriate place to ask my following question. I came across a proposed method for determining what type of market we are currently in (https://pepperstone.com/uk/client-re...g-market-types). What do you think, is this actually something statistically useful or after the fact nonsense?


Its more efficient to asses price movements from pattern behaviour using front and back side of move included in pattern, that way when you have blind side you simply discard it with no opinion on price.
For example the "bull volatilie" phase as named in article you could specify paraboler, becouse B bands are often gona push you in non extended move. Many traders end selling bull trend too early on signals like B bands outside cross becouse they miss the most important part of puzzle which is that move really has to be overextended, which means front side and the way price expands counts more than current price state.
Many parabolic simply countinue further often the ones that are near bases of short squeezes or quick flips so its better to also have backside identified that gets you in.
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"Keep your stops tight durring volatile movement" which article points for paraboler is a very bad approach to follow. Stops are always R adjusted and always volatility symetrically scaled not asymetrically scaled, that is great way to increase the amount of times youll be stoped out if you use tight pip/buck stops in highly vol market.

For "bull normal" it might be better if you want to trade breaks to identify it as impulse+consolidation+tightening from both sides, this way you are on better side of statistical performance, loose structures after impulse or in normal stages underpeform. This way you are on statistical odds when it comes to "normal sideways" market which usually tends to perform far better on the side of impulse, rather than playing each side of move with equal expectations.

"Bull volatile markets can be described when strong candle sticks out of B band". By the definition if you use that youll get killed. Every heavy short squeeze starts with base like that and then kills some more agressive shorts. Every clearout starts like that and wipes stop order sellers/buyers. You would have a lot opinion on many price occassions but with low performance. You need to define front end of move otherwise the equation will underperform.
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Its very often that generalized theories get traders in trouble. "buy low sell high" it sucks traders shorting everything that goes up and calling everything that goes up bubble aswell. Simple is fine, but it has to be specific.

And always keep in mind if you include the points of article as:
"Once in sideways market you can trade bounces inwards"
"Breakouts from B bands contracted give oportunities for great RR"
"One can identify strong bear market as bear candle outside of B bands"
.....

Quote
something statistically useful or after the fact nonsense?
Its more important the way you trade it than it is what you are trading or what you think you are trading. A lot of breaks end as fakes, lots of B band squeezes end as two sided wipes, a lot of parabolers outside of B bands end as continuation, so in the end the process how you will approach each sitatuion is going to define your edge more.

And its not about picking on the article, screen examples are fine, but if i had read that article 3 years ago i can easily see myself executing every example bad becouse its not specified enough.
  • #149,559
  • Apr 11, 2017 2:42am Apr 11, 2017 2:42am
While oil on move and EU nothing to see. Anyone of you guys planning to load UK100 ST/MT/LT? Im still not sure of the timing for ST and MT. The top looks wide open. Maybe tracking 7360 for W1 close will give us some clue. any comments welcomed
  • #149,560
  • Apr 11, 2017 3:04am Apr 11, 2017 3:04am
Thank you for the thorough answer janpec1000.
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