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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs

  • #1,401
  • Apr 10, 2017 5:36am Apr 10, 2017 5:36am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} I saw this demand zone, but I don't think we'll retrace this high
Possibly, whos to know right now, but all I know as we speak now, Cable is in a beautiful demand zone, hitting the 50 fib absolutely perfectly, unfortunately I missed this trade due to my car issues end of last week etc. But this demand is working out lovely right now, even with GBP being bearish from the majority, the fact it hit the fib pretty much to the pip within demand is all just too sweet
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  • #1,402
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:02am Apr 10, 2017 6:02am
Ok, so been getting ALOT of private messages, and a few on this subject, being why am I bearish GBP at the moment. Basically with supply and demand, we favour the more powerful bear/bull, currently supplies are now taking out and erasing demand levels, which would mean a downtrend is the order of the day at the moment, hence why supply areas will be more favourable over demands, demands still work, however they won't get as far as supply keeps growing.
The perfect scenario here would be for this demand to push up to my marked supply level on the fib, and for a sell-off to occur, which in turn would hopefully break this demand zone marked continuing the downtrend. However I stress nothing is guranteed, economic news as well as economy in general can turn within seconds, with a single word out a feds mouth can move anything in the opposite direction anticipated. So keeping an eye on news is pivotal to my trading. I hope this explained my bias on this pair for now, any questions just shoot them in a post on here.
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  • #1,403
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:09am Apr 10, 2017 6:09am
SPOTTING BANK LEVELS

The other popular question I got was how I spot Bank and Instituional supply and demand levels. The answer will come as a surprise to alot of people at how easy this is to spot. This supply area I marked on cable happened at 7am-8am UK Time, this is the time EU trading has begun and gets into full swing along with the UK. So what can move a market like this, well easy, big players, banks and institutions, and what time do they get at thier desks, yes you guessed it, 7-8am UK Time . So this level I have marked to me is a "bank level".
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  • #1,404
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:36am Apr 10, 2017 6:36am
Quoting deankenny21
SPOTTING BANK LEVELS The other popular question I got was how I spot Bank and Instituional supply and demand levels. The answer will come as a surprise to alot of people at how easy this is to spot. This supply area I marked on cable happened at 7am-8am UK Time, this is the time EU trading has begun and gets into full swing along with the UK. So what can move a market like this, well easy, big players, banks and institutions, and what time do they get at thier desks, yes you guessed it, 7-8am UK Time . So this level I have marked to me is...
Thank you for sharing.
  • #1,405
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:39am Apr 10, 2017 6:39am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Possibly, whos to know right now, but all I know as we speak now, Cable is in a beautiful demand zone, hitting the 50 fib absolutely perfectly, unfortunately I missed this trade due to my car issues end of last week etc. But this demand is working out lovely right now, even with GBP being bearish from the majority, the fact it hit the fib pretty much to the pip within demand is all just too sweet {image}
How do you use fib levels?Which level is more powerful in SD?
  • #1,406
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:41am Apr 10, 2017 6:41am
Quoting saad007
{quote} How do you use fib levels?Which level is more powerful in SD?
I tend to favour 50 at the absolute most, 50 is popular with both retail traders and banks alike especially on the big charts daily-weekly-monthly. 61.8 is also another interesting level, however all of them play their own part in a way, if there is lots of selling pressure we will see the early fib retracements coming into play very quickly.
  • #1,407
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:47am Apr 10, 2017 6:47am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Possibly, whos to know right now, but all I know as we speak now, Cable is in a beautiful demand zone, hitting the 50 fib absolutely perfectly, unfortunately I missed this trade due to my car issues end of last week etc. But this demand is working out lovely right now, even with GBP being bearish from the majority, the fact it hit the fib pretty much to the pip within demand is all just too sweet {image}
What do you think, Dean? Would you treat a strong 'news' backed move as a supply zone or was there enough liquidity in the news period for banks to release all orders without any left behind for their good average fills?
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  • #1,408
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:48am Apr 10, 2017 6:48am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} What do you think, Dean? Would you treat a strong 'news' backed move as a supply zone or was there enough liquidity in the news period for banks to release all orders without any left behind for their good average fills? {image}
Have you marked that from a lower timeframe? When you get to lower timeframes like this, can get a bit messy.
  • #1,409
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:50am Apr 10, 2017 6:50am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Have you marked that from a lower timeframe? When you get to lower timeframes like this, can get a bit messy.
I have Dean (30m), although my bias is strongly bearish for GBP and I have been stacking trades as we progress downwards. I'm trying to use SD areas to enter in the direction of my bias with less drawdown.
  • #1,410
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:50am Apr 10, 2017 6:50am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} What do you think, Dean? Would you treat a strong 'news' backed move as a supply zone or was there enough liquidity in the news period for banks to release all orders without any left behind for their good average fills? {image}
From a quick look this is how I have supply on the 30min chart, however I have less confidence as the timeframes gets lower, however it is a new supply, bit it is fairly large.
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  • #1,411
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:55am Apr 10, 2017 6:55am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} From a quick look this is how I have supply on the 30min chart, however I have less confidence as the timeframes gets lower, however it is a new supply, bit it is fairly large. {image}
Makes sense, Dean. I'll watch your supply zone with interest! Thanks for the quick feedback. I'm targeting 1.21 for the next area of major consolidation before bottoming at 1.19 long term.
  • #1,412
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:57am Apr 10, 2017 6:57am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Makes sense, Dean. I'll watch your supply zone with interest! Thanks for the quick feedback. I'm targeting 1.21 for the next area of major consolidation before bottoming at 1.19 long term.
Very good that you have set targets in mind. Also what we tend to find with bank levels, is that if the banks have any unfilled orders from this morning from that sell off, they will attract price back to this area, attracting buyers along the way, so they can fill their unfilled short orders, what we would call a "bull trap". Of course I am not a bank so I cannot see what unfilled orders are, however I do know banks sold at that level marked on the 4hr.
  • #1,413
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:06am Apr 10, 2017 7:06am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Very good that you have set targets in mind. Also what we tend to find with bank levels, is that if the banks have any unfilled orders from this morning from that sell off, they will attract price back to this area, attracting buyers along the way, so they can fill their unfilled short orders, what we would call a "bull trap". Of course I am not a bank so I cannot see what unfilled orders are, however I do know banks sold at that level marked on the 4hr.
Thanks, Dean. I've been a quiet follower for a while.

Have you you every attempted blending market profile with your SD analysis? You obviously have a knack for spotting 'naked' set ups, but for the learners, using a volume profile tool and watching for high volume areas which line up with SD levels can be a very good confluence. I've taken some brilliant trades off the back of this.

I've attached a screenshot I took a while back on MT4, but for anyone interested, if you use the session volume profile on Trading View with data from IDC (not a retail broker) you can spot areas of high activity and thus orders.
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  • #1,414
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:06am Apr 10, 2017 7:06am
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  • #1,415
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:06am Apr 10, 2017 7:06am
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  • #1,416
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:07am Apr 10, 2017 7:07am
I have also found the volume profile tool useful at 'highlighting' which fib level might be the 'the one' in advance.
  • #1,417
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:10am Apr 10, 2017 7:10am
Quoting Derivative92
{image}
Result
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  • #1,418
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:10am Apr 10, 2017 7:10am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Thanks, Dean. I've been a quiet follower for a while. Have you you every attempted blending market profile with your SD analysis? You obviously have a knack for spotting 'naked' set ups, but for the learners, using a volume profile tool and watching for high volume areas which line up with SD levels can be a very good confluence. I've taken some brilliant trades off the back of this. I've attached a screenshot I took a while back on MT4, but for anyone interested, if you use the session volume profile on Trading View with data from IDC (not...
Your right, I can nakedly see where all the volume is, and lies. However for beginners this may be very useful. So you are more than welcome to post the tool for others to learn from.
  • #1,419
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:14am Apr 10, 2017 7:14am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Your right, I can nakedly see where all the volume is, and lies. However for beginners this may be very useful. So you are more than welcome to post the tool for others to learn from.
Anyone/those without Dean's naked vision wanting MT4 volume profile indicators can find them over on Trader Dale's thread or Trading View.

Thanks again for your help, Dean.
  • #1,420
  • Apr 10, 2017 7:26am Apr 10, 2017 7:26am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Anyone/those without Dean's naked vision wanting MT4 volume profile indicators can find them over on Trader Dale's thread or Trading View. Thanks again for your help, Dean.
You're welcome, I'll even have a little play with it myself, be interesting how it compares to where I plot the volume in my head.
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