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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,521
  • Apr 7, 2017 3:01pm Apr 7, 2017 3:01pm
I see SPX dipping red at the close. Nobody wants to hold risk assets over the weekend, but not a big sell-off by any means. Despite all the noise from the Fed and Syria, etc - if things settle down a bit I could still see the S&P making another run at double top 2,400+. I don't enter short-term trades on Fridays any more, though, who knows what crazy shit will be tweeted over the weekend, or worse....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,522
  • Apr 7, 2017 5:08pm Apr 7, 2017 5:08pm
Weekend is a time to put events into perspective outside of the market view I guess. And for that reason, Im looking forward to market open next week.
Good weekend all.
  • #149,523
  • Apr 7, 2017 5:11pm Apr 7, 2017 5:11pm
...And we rolled in a very bearish W close with a bullish daily roll. Risk, real risk knocking at the front door for the first time in many years but good news from the war front sectors keep markets on hold.

World markets softening the floor and hardening the top, i wouldn't take today's Dollar rally lightly....

Main markets closing at irrelevant levels with Gold and Oil already on the move.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,524
  • Apr 8, 2017 7:19am Apr 8, 2017 7:19am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} Last polls show Melenchon is now in the race for the second round (particularly the one below), and a narrowing in the gap between the 4 frontrunners {image} http://www.midilibre.fr/2017/04/07/s...on,1490269.php Edit : 6 possibilities now for the second round Macron/Fillon : No Risk (both EU/Euro friendly) Macron/Le Pen : Very low risk (huge margin for Macron in the polls for the second round) Macron/Melenchon : Very low risk (not tested in the polls...
Nice election risk cheat sheet here. Thanks for writing that up.
  • #149,525
  • Apr 8, 2017 8:23am Apr 8, 2017 8:23am
i have been keeping shut about the dow. i had just under 22k as the place to look.. as strong as it looked 21,926 area. it never made it yet. i dont know if it will take another shot. as you know i use uj weight to consider equities. my view on the uj is still to drop..

dow has gone up almost straight, for 8 years.. since march 2009 till march 2017.. 7 candles is not a common trend. 8 is that, much harder. atm 9 is very unlikely. just strictly looking back at unbiased candles. (march 09 to march 17 is not a ending year ). even if we were in year 5 and it was near/at 21,926 i would be more likely not to be long. maybe after a correction .. how deep is correction, unknown?.. when is unknown?. maybe one more push toward 21,9xx. i just wouldn't bet on it because the correction could be 3500 dow points.. i put odds on a drop chart wise as better than 50/50. meanwhile the fed may be raising some. between this selling assets its kinda muddy. that 22k ish level is lofty imo.. the king having no clothes may take some of the pixy dust out of the markets. below 22k dow.. back to 18k to me has decent potential. i would rather be on the sideline waiting to enter on a drop. or even short over long..

this is just the dow,, other u.s equities may be in the same boat. basically back to nov 2016 levels. unless uj is correct. in that case much lower than nov 2016 levels.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,526
  • Apr 8, 2017 4:19pm Apr 8, 2017 4:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
i have been keeping shut about the dow..........correction could be 3500 dow points.. i put odds on a drop chart wise as better than 50/50. ........the king having no clothes may take some of the pixy dust out of the markets. below 22k dow.. back to 18k to me has decent potential. i would rather be on the sideline waiting to enter on a drop...............
1) keep some powder dry 2) BTFD......that's all the average lunchmeat needs to know.

Beyond that anyone could blather on. Like this. I note the 2015 hard drops to 16,500 that were immediately btfd'd. The run post-election, the Trump rally, has stalled as you note but there's plenty room to run further if Trump will deliver the tax cut and heavy deficit spending gifts to Wall Street, if he can stay off the geopoli roller coaster, etc etc....and if Q1 earnings deliver also, we are heading into that test in the coming weeks. Expectations for Q1 earnings are high, so if some big names have big slips, or even not so big, then equities could slide pretty hard, but probably not more than 5% or so, I'd guess.

It takes big, unexpected scary events anymore to open the trap door in the US equities space. 6 months ago I was saying maybe the Dutch/French/German elections could be on a par with the Brexit vote and the US '16 elections, but that seems less likely now. The Fed could regain Boogieman status, maybe in time....

The biggest unknown anymore is impulsive manchild DJT with his finger on the various buttons of power and catastrophe. That'll probably be true for some time. So it's worth having some contrarian trades on ... but I still think btfd is the word for the near term.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,527
  • Apr 8, 2017 5:53pm Apr 8, 2017 5:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}1) keep some powder dry 2) BTFD......that's all the average lunchmeat needs to know. Beyond that anyone could blather on. Like this. I note the 2015 hard drops to 16,500 that were immediately btfd'd. The run post-election, the Trump rally, has stalled as you note but there's plenty room to run further if Trump will deliver the tax cut and heavy deficit spending gifts to Wall Street, if he can stay off the geopoli roller coaster, etc etc....and if Q1 earnings deliver also, we are heading into that test in the coming weeks. Expectations for...
i dont have a clue about what does or not happen with Trump, Fed, any war, or whatever. i posted my analysis from chart. not really blather. if some fundi reason helps/hurts the chart so be it. i may be 100% wrong. i was willing to put my nutz out there. we can monday morning QB it in the future at some point. the biggest unknown out there, is not known ever ahead of time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,528
  • Apr 9, 2017 7:58pm Apr 9, 2017 7:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
i was shooting for 1.0585 or less till 1.0340 to keep/enter a long.. st 1.0575 is a target.. it may be getting time to cull some shorts soon. more so after usdx 101.52
both 0875 and 0585 hit now. but usdx has some room for 101.52 (atm high 101.30). it could drop the eu a little deeper, but it's worth watching. it may be worth looking for exhaustion. i already started some eu long nibbling (atm eu low 0573). uj approaching 1160 too.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,529
  • Apr 9, 2017 8:06pm Apr 9, 2017 8:06pm
uj at any time may encounter to good R now..111.60 area.. atm high 111.575
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,530
  • Apr 9, 2017 8:13pm Apr 9, 2017 8:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
uj at any time may encounter to good R now..111.60 area.. atm high 111.575 {image}
Hi gator,
Thanks for the chart. Breaking 1160 could lead to 112.06 ?I am keeping my fingers crossed that 1160 proves to be a steel Redistance. Data was also gòod for yen still it climed up. Lets see, when will it takes its dive.
  • #149,531
  • Apr 9, 2017 8:13pm Apr 9, 2017 8:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
pendings sucked today.. had one on s uj 111.6 missed and another on eu s 0685 with tight stops missed.. still have a gu long pending 2259 jic.. still have a shot pre nfp drift.
sucks less now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,532
  • Apr 9, 2017 8:15pm Apr 9, 2017 8:15pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Hi gator, Thanks for the chart. Breaking 1160 could lead to 112.06 ?I am keeping my fingers crossed that 1160 proves to be a steel Redistance. Data was also god for yen still it climed up. Lets see, when will it takes its dive.
dont bet the farm,, a couple of good laying hens should do the trick.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,533
  • Apr 9, 2017 8:38pm Apr 9, 2017 8:38pm
i got some more eu pending lower.. i shorted the uj.. 111.6 may provide the R i need.. above 112. its time to regroup. in the st... but 111.6 may be enough.. it may test this area a while.. gnight .. no need to watch it.. it's either right or not.. the usdx has more room.. so it may force 111.60 test.. i dont know.. so i took the short manual..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,534
  • Apr 10, 2017 1:20am Apr 10, 2017 1:20am
Quoting gatorinla
i got some more eu pending lower.. i shorted the uj.. 111.6 may provide the R i need..
Gator, 111.66 looks like a small norm, which is missed?
  • #149,535
  • Apr 10, 2017 2:39am Apr 10, 2017 2:39am
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Gator, 111.66 looks like a small norm, which is missed?
I think 111.66 will next be revisited early next week...
  • #149,536
  • Apr 10, 2017 2:49am Apr 10, 2017 2:49am
...short holiday week with a very light calendar on the macro front. Expecting a very early end of the week and a late start for next one. After NFP flop, markets waiting for a series of fresh data to confirm the 'new' normal in full employment with softer employment numbers (as its expected in full employment) with Last week noise of FED balance sheet and etc starting to fade away from the open today until further data.

Very little in play or to track in the macro front with all cards already on the table.

Politics and risk will be on the driver seat in the next few days. Expecting an increase on the levels of noise and warmongering specially from the US. Syrian bombing is proving very effective (like always in the very short term) for Trump popularity on the first polls and is helping a lot dissipate the Russian links that were overwhelming the US administration in the last few days.

Markets will be subdue to politics and risk in the upcoming week(s), with lots of noise coming from France that will affect the Euro* in Europe and from Russia and the US on Syria that will pump the commodity/Oil rally.

On the rest of the board, nothing new with same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,537
  • Apr 10, 2017 2:55am Apr 10, 2017 2:55am
Quoting sisse
...short holiday week with a very light calendar on the macro front. Expecting a very early end of the week and a late start for next one.... sisse
I'll save a spot at the table for you....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #149,538
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:20am Apr 10, 2017 3:20am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I'll save a spot at the table for you.... {image}
Ok lets ride roast the pig ...as in trading as long as we don't burn the house to roast the pig ...I'll accept the invitation .... .,,,

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,539
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:39am Apr 10, 2017 3:39am
Quoting sisse
...Politics and risk will be on the driver seat in the next few days. Expecting an increase on the levels of noise and warmongering specially from the US.
US equities will grind back to the double top until the next tweet or headline or surprise apocalypse. Chances of the latter increases every week so I will be shopping long volatility while it's cheap....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,540
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:41am Apr 10, 2017 3:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok lets ride roast the pig ...as in trading as long as we don't burn the house to roast the pig ...I'll accept the invitation .... .,,, sisse
Hi Sisse,
I read a post from you, suggesting that Uj may drop to 108.4x to 103xx. this was, in your view a short tem target or a medium one.
Regards.
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