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AUD/USD

  • #101,181
  • Apr 9, 2017 2:59am Apr 9, 2017 2:59am
Quoting YellowFellow
Major support has been broken decisively + trendlines shows direction, I'm of the view we going down, way down.. {image}
Yes, but I'm wary of how USD will move. Would it be safer to sell AUD/JPY instead?
  • #101,182
  • Apr 9, 2017 3:22am Apr 9, 2017 3:22am
Is it AB=CD Pattern ?
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  • #101,183
  • Apr 9, 2017 5:20am Apr 9, 2017 5:20am
Quoting ThreeHalf
{quote} Yes, but I'm wary of how USD will move. Would it be safer to sell AUD/JPY instead?
IF PA (Price-Action) falls through the red bar decisively, I would suggest sell.

From decisive PA, I mean the price should fall through and stay there for about a session or so.. I can opine in more detail once Euro session opens on Monday.
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  • #101,184
  • Apr 9, 2017 7:52am Apr 9, 2017 7:52am
The smart money commercials are heavily net short compared to the non commercials. We can see from the previous reports that as the non commercials increased their long positions, the commercials went the opposite way and eventually the pair fell from 0.77x. It has not yet recovered.

This pair is going to stay bearish and it is probably safe to short any rally.

I think in the medium term with the economic uncertainty in China and Australia, we wont see any sustained rally. The iron ore prices are not likely to rally either and this will help to keep the AUD bearish.
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #101,185
  • Apr 9, 2017 10:39am Apr 9, 2017 10:39am
Great opportunity for long if P/A shows reversal. If it closes below support on daily, we're looking towards 73s and maybe 71s again.
  • #101,186
  • Apr 9, 2017 2:49pm Apr 9, 2017 2:49pm
If you are tracking AUUSD this week, consider this technical perspective.

On the H4 time frame, price action has broken the triangle pattern formed by a descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 2017 and an ascending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the low of March 2017 and is now respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in southward momentum. Two bearish price waves had been created since the price action moved into the inner trendline – the first was accompanied by a full pullback, but the second is still in play and may likely experience a pullback before further southward push.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #101,187
  • Apr 9, 2017 3:41pm Apr 9, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting MrPresident
The smart money commercials are heavily net short compared to the non commercials. We can see from the previous reports that as the non commercials increased their long positions, the commercials went the opposite way and eventually the pair fell from 0.77x. It has not yet recovered. This pair is going to stay bearish and it is probably safe to short any rally. I think in the medium term with the economic uncertainty in China and Australia, we wont see any sustained rally. The iron ore prices are not likely to rally either and this will help to...
where did you find this... cheers
  • #101,188
  • Apr 9, 2017 6:32pm Apr 9, 2017 6:32pm
Quoting eatthis
{quote} where did you find this... cheers
Not sure where MrPresident got the one posted, personally I prefer what I believe to be similar info in graphical format available at either of:
http://www.cotbase.com/
or
http://www.timingcharts.com/
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #101,189
  • Apr 9, 2017 7:07pm Apr 9, 2017 7:07pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Not sure where MrPresident got the one posted, personally I prefer what I believe to be similar info in graphical format available at either of: http://www.cotbase.com/ or http://www.timingcharts.com/
This is the link just scroll down the list - http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

this is the main page - http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm, then look for Chicago Mercantile Exchange and click on the Short Format
  • #101,190
  • Apr 9, 2017 9:36pm Apr 9, 2017 9:36pm
AUD .7485

Finally some movement in this CCY pair.

Its been a waiting game for awhile now but as mentioned when it starts to motor it accelerates quicker than most major pairs on the downside without any news.

I dont think too many are on this move. Infact I think there are funds still long hoping for a bounce.

Good luck with that ..
  • #101,191
  • Edited Apr 10, 2017 3:09am Apr 9, 2017 10:40pm | Edited Apr 10, 2017 3:09am
Think we could be going for 0.7360 & 0.7170...waiting for retrace up to 0.7540
Searching for some order in these apparent chaos...
  • #101,192
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:03am Apr 10, 2017 3:03am
Short from 0,74802
SL 0,74984
Target 0,74529
R:R 1,5

I might extend target if we get a strong and quick drop
  • #101,193
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:17am Apr 10, 2017 3:17am
Quoting ProdigyFX
Short from 0,74802 SL 0,74984 Target 0,74529 R:R 1,5 I might extend target if we get a strong and quick drop
We'll that's strange
  • #101,194
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:20am Apr 10, 2017 3:20am
Quoting Don96
{quote} We'll that's strange
No fundamental analysis
No prediction at all

Just plotting my own levels and buy/sell the breakouts
We'll see!
  • #101,195
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:31am Apr 10, 2017 3:31am
Quoting ProdigyFX
{quote} No fundamental analysis No prediction at all Just plotting my own levels and buy/sell the breakouts We'll see!
So a guess?

It's just strange to sell the very bottom when there isn't even a breakout as of yet, not saying you are wrong but the probabilities probably aren't in your favour
  • #101,196
  • Apr 10, 2017 3:38am Apr 10, 2017 3:38am
Quoting Don96
{quote} So a guess? It's just strange to sell the very bottom when there isn't even a breakout as of yet, not saying you are wrong but the probabilities probably aren't in your favour
Not guessing lol, just following my technichal strategy

We broke the low of march 9th

After that I am looking at small structures to short in the 1H tf.
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  • #101,197
  • Edited 8:39am Apr 10, 2017 3:43am | Edited 8:39am
minimum targets remain at top still & waiting it end at some supports , may be some more than expected ! nearest strong sr 0.7441. ok.Take care , fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #101,198
  • Apr 10, 2017 4:04am Apr 10, 2017 4:04am
Quoting ProdigyFX
{quote} Not guessing lol, just following my technichal strategy We broke the low of march 9th After that I am looking at small structures to short in the 1H tf. {image}
IMO should wait for a retracement as close to that high as possible or wait for the breakout... which may even ve fake
  • #101,199
  • Apr 10, 2017 4:14am Apr 10, 2017 4:14am
You might be right on this, but you never know

Just sticking to my criteria as long as it works over time, and just making small adjustments if necessary
  • #101,200
  • Apr 10, 2017 6:47am Apr 10, 2017 6:47am
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