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Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

  • #161
  • Apr 7, 2017 6:45am Apr 7, 2017 6:45am
Quoting RougeTrader
Hi goldthehun nice indicator - is there any chance you can add push/email notifications when a level is touched? Best wishes RT
Hi RogueTreder,

I am not the original coder of this indicator. I have just modded it to fit the random walk theory. The coder of the original indicator is abokwaik. Who is an excellent coder and a member of FF..

Good Luck...
  • #162
  • Apr 7, 2017 6:54am Apr 7, 2017 6:54am
Day 3 trying out this method... uneventful, likely due to NFP in an hour.
So far, only entered one trade, exit with a small profit as Mkt not moving much and not risking with NFP.

calling it a day (end of the week).
  • #163
  • Apr 7, 2017 6:58am Apr 7, 2017 6:58am
Quoting FireFries
Day 3 trying out this method... uneventful, likely due to NFP in an hour. So far, only entered one trade, exit with a small profit as Mkt not moving much and not risking with NFP. calling it a day (end of the week).
FireFries,

Thank you for updating your situation.
Next week you will have many possibilities I am sure..

Good Luck and a great weekend....
  • #164
  • Apr 7, 2017 7:07am Apr 7, 2017 7:07am
Thanks, GTH,

it was a good 3.8% gain for the last 3 days. You have a great weekend too, bro.
  • #165
  • Apr 7, 2017 9:34am Apr 7, 2017 9:34am
Here is a brief explanation of how the levels are calculated:

Using the absolute value of close differences of past 5 minute bars we find the volatility.
We know from statistical rules that
Sqrt(time) * volatility = standard deviation

Since we have 288 of 5 minute bars per day, we calculate the statistical boundaries of the day (the levels).
Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.00
Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.645
Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.96
Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 2.576

We add and subtract these calculated values from the daily open..

The last multipliers are the Z-Scores of normal distribution.

So this is it. Very simple and effective way to find the possible daily support and resistance points (the significant level).

Good Luck...
  • #166
  • Apr 7, 2017 12:23pm Apr 7, 2017 12:23pm
Do you use 5 minute bars to calculate weekly resist/support level?
How many 5 minutes bars is used? I found only 2324 bars for 5 minutes for spx 500 in my mt4.
  • #167
  • Apr 7, 2017 12:36pm Apr 7, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting Jack168
Do you use 5 minute bars to calculate weekly resist/support level? How many 5 minutes bars is used? I found only 2324 bars for 5 minutes for spx 500 in my mt4.

Hi Jack,

You need 1440 (5 min bars) for correct calculation.. So what you have is more than enough...

Good Luck...
  • #168
  • Apr 7, 2017 12:52pm Apr 7, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting Jack168
Do you use 5 minute bars to calculate weekly resist/support level? How many 5 minutes bars is used? I found only 2324 bars for 5 minutes for spx 500 in my mt4.
By the way, all upward pushes seem fake to me (my personal opinion). They don't want the price to go down prematurely, so they try to push it up for a while then let it go.

I believe 23.6 level is very possible, if not lower. We will wait and see.
Trading is a game of deceiving. The big money has to convince traders so that they can have enough number of traders to dump the lots..So if you honestly think that there is no reason for the spx to go up (or down), you should always stick with your initial thought until proven wrong...

Happy hunting...
  • #169
  • Apr 7, 2017 3:20pm Apr 7, 2017 3:20pm
Well after a lot struggle 23.6 hit finally...

Good Luck all.....
  • #170
  • Apr 7, 2017 3:44pm Apr 7, 2017 3:44pm
SPX got into tough correction, now. If 50 day ma is closed down, then, it will run 100 day ma.
But, Wed Sell bar couldn't push spx down.
If bar close above 2363 level, bull may run top side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX_Daily_Range_7-4-2017.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #171
  • Apr 7, 2017 6:26pm Apr 7, 2017 6:26pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
Here is a brief explanation of how the levels are calculated: Using the absolute value of close differences of past 5 minute bars we find the volatility. We know from statistical rules that Sqrt(time) * volatility = standard deviation Since we have 288 of 5 minute bars per day, we calculate the statistical boundaries of the day (the levels). Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.00 Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.645 Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.96 Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 2.576 We add and subtract these calculated values from the daily open.. The last multipliers...
Very elegant logic being applied here GTH. Loving your thread
  • #172
  • Apr 7, 2017 10:44pm Apr 7, 2017 10:44pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Hi Jack, You need 1440 (5 min bars) for correct calculation.. So what you have is more than enough... Good Luck...
Hello GoldTheHun,

Just want to run an idea by you for defining a trend:

On Day 1 we let the indicator calculate the S/R lines and we note down the values. On Day 2, new S/R lines will be calculated. If the new S/R lines{block of lines} are below the Day 1's S/R, we say the trend is down for the Day and we wait for a pullback till 78 Fib and looking for stalling and take short...

Haven't tested it though... Please give your take on this and be brutally honest if needed....

Thanks
  • #173
  • Apr 8, 2017 3:07am Apr 8, 2017 3:07am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Very elegant logic being applied here GTH. Loving your thread
Welcome to the thread Copernicus.. I am very glad you enjoy it.

Good luck....
  • #174
  • Apr 8, 2017 3:15am Apr 8, 2017 3:15am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Hello GoldTheHun, Just want to run an idea by you for defining a trend: On Day 1 we let the indicator calculate the S/R lines and we note down the values. On Day 2, new S/R lines will be calculated. If the new S/R lines{block of lines} are below the Day 1's S/R, we say the trend is down for the Day and we wait for a pullback till 78 Fib and looking for stalling and take short... Haven't tested it though... Please give your take on this and be brutally honest if needed.... Thanks
Hi aaven,

Your idea will only show that today's open is lower than yesterday open and, unless the volatility is through the roof...
Of course this could be a method too, but I personally don't like set rules for the trend. Rules work today and stop working the next day.. Personally for me only viable method is watching the price action around the levels. That gives me a hint on which way to enter.
But that is just me...

Good luck...
  • #175
  • Apr 8, 2017 3:28am Apr 8, 2017 3:28am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Hi aaven, Your idea will only show that today's open is lower than yesterday open and, unless the volatility is through the roof... Of course this could be a method too, but I personally don't like set rules for the trend. Rules work today and stop working the next day.. Personally for me only viable method is watching the price action around the levels. That gives me a hint on which way to enter. But that is just me... Good luck...
Thanks GoldTheHun for your insight. It is much appreciated. So keeping the focus on price action at those levels is the key...
  • #176
  • Apr 9, 2017 2:50pm Apr 9, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks GoldTheHun for your insight. It is much appreciated. So keeping the focus on price action at those levels is the key...
You're always welcomed aaven...
  • #177
  • Apr 10, 2017 2:20am Apr 10, 2017 2:20am
Usd/Cad sell right now?
  • #178
  • Apr 10, 2017 4:25pm Apr 10, 2017 4:25pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
Here is a brief explanation of how the levels are calculated: Using the absolute value of close differences of past 5 minute bars we find the volatility. We know from statistical rules that Sqrt(time) * volatility = standard deviation Since we have 288 of 5 minute bars per day, we calculate the statistical boundaries of the day (the levels). Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.00 Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.645 Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 1.96 Sqrt(288) * Volatility * 2.576 We add and subtract these calculated values from the daily open.. The last multipliers...

Hi,
One might benefit from a version of pivot indicator calculating levels for past days. Hope I got it right.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pivot_goldthehun.mq4   3 KB | 444 downloads


Cheers,
k

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Clipboard01.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #179
  • Apr 10, 2017 4:45pm Apr 10, 2017 4:45pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi, One might benefit from a version of pivot indicator calculating levels for past days. Hope I got it right. {file} Cheers, k {image}

Hi kprsa,

Thank you very much for posting this. I will check the code and let you know very soon.
Appreciate your effort.

Good Luck...
  • #180
  • Edited 5:06pm Apr 10, 2017 4:51pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi, One might benefit from a version of pivot indicator calculating levels for past days. Hope I got it right. {file} Cheers, k {image}

It looks perfect but only problem is it is using the ATR. The one I have uses the following indicator.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ATR-Close.mq4   4 KB | 576 downloads


If you could use this instead of the ordinary ATR, it will be perfect.
The regular ATR gives too inflated figures for random walk to be used correctly....

Thanks once again and waiting for the updated one.

Good Luck...
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