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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,081
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:35am Apr 4, 2017 1:35am
17/04/04 TUESDAY 08:35+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a full balance environment: monthly, weekly and daily. As written in the previous post, yesterday inventories became too long and after the new pit poor high a substantial liquidation took its way downside. It stopped at major composite poc 2481 for hours then it continued lower where we currently are.

Price location could provide us a new GB gap lower at open (9:00+1GMT): again, if the gap will not be retraced quickly, the odds are for continuation downside. If instead we will see a clear rejection of the new price level and a full fast filling of the new possible GB gap downside we could continue higher in order to get rid of that sequence of weaknesses left above in the last days, meaning all the poor highs listed in previous post.

Price is currently balancing around a major short/mid term level (24437). Below it we have other major references for GB as 2428, 24072 and 2396: below each of these levels we could find stronger buyers. If not we could continue lower to search below 23805 or 23465. But these are only ipothesys. The first thing to consider this morning, as said, will be the reaction of GB participants to the new possible gap downside from yesterday GB low that is at 2485: the bigger the gap, the lower the odds to retrace it during the first session after it occurred. But remember also that we are in a full balance environment with no trend in action, so our major composite poc at 2481 remains a very important pole of attraction in a weak rotational environment.
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  • #4,082
  • Apr 4, 2017 8:16am Apr 4, 2017 8:16am
Hi Lock,

As you mentioned I had a break in my trading....well I'm back again..... Hope your doing fine!!
Last time I had a very busy time with the birth of my daughter. Anyway after 6 weeks only jumping around with diapers and bottles of milk and ofcourse my little daughter I try to pick up trading again

Ciao!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #4,083
  • Apr 4, 2017 12:08pm Apr 4, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, As you mentioned I had a break in my trading....well I'm back again..... Hope your doing fine!! Last time I had a very busy time with the birth of my daughter. Anyway after 6 weeks only jumping around with diapers and bottles of milk and ofcourse my little daughter I try to pick up trading again Ciao!

Hi Happyme, Welcome coming back and Congratulations! Let me know if you need help for new dst with our tpo tool (you need to change time settings to properly view the profiles). Best L.
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  • #4,084
  • Apr 4, 2017 12:29pm Apr 4, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, As you mentioned I had a break in my trading....well I'm back again..... Hope your doing fine!! Last time I had a very busy time with the birth of my daughter. Anyway after 6 weeks only jumping around with diapers and bottles of milk and ofcourse my little daughter I try to pick up trading again Ciao!
congratulations.
  • #4,085
  • Apr 4, 2017 12:32pm Apr 4, 2017 12:32pm
Lock, the US session is ending in about 3.5hours time, have anything to weigh in on Cable? Thank you.
  • #4,086
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:54am Apr 5, 2017 1:54am
Quoting KovanTrader
Lock, the US session is ending in about 3.5hours time, have anything to weigh in on Cable? Thank you.

Hi Kovan, sorry for the lack of answer. When I saw the session in full rotation after the balance of preUS and GB I stopped to follow market because I thought it was clearly waiting for information. So I also stop to follow the thread and I didn't see your question. Best L.

PS: I think they are waiting for FOMC. This does not mean they have to stay here in balance untill it but it means that bigger timeframes are not involved yet and probably they will not be untill tomorrow. See you later.
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  • #4,087
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:48am Apr 5, 2017 2:48am
Hi guys,

I have a buy trade on eurusd from 1.0586 and i'm kinda worried about the ADP and NFP this week. Any forecasts?
  • #4,088
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:31pm Apr 5, 2017 2:31pm
Huge amount of weaknesses above right now.
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  • #4,089
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:34pm Apr 5, 2017 2:34pm
We got 4 pit poor highs in a row: current one, then 25155, 25475 and 2556. Then we have other 3 poor highs left by other sessions: GB at 23365, Tokyo at 25535 and finally preUS at 2563.

Npw, again, when such a situation materializes we could think at 2 different scenarios: the first one tells us about incompletion above. The second one could inform us about lack of buyers. In any case such mass of weaknesses needs all our respect and consideration because it could lead to significant moves in both cases.

Current session built a prominent poc and furthermore current action is occurring close to the main composite poc at 2481 (that tends to attract price, specially if price is leaded by weak hands).

So now we could have 2 kind of reaction to current situation: stronger hands will step in in order to liquidate significantly or, at the opposite, in order to get rid of all the weaknesses above or, weaker hands will insist to rule this action and then the composite poc has the possibility to reattract price in a balance rotational environment.
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  • #4,090
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:00am Apr 6, 2017 2:00am
17/04/06 THURSDAY 09:00+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a weekly, monthly daily balance around a major composite poc at 2484 (but it may switch to 2481). So we are in a full balance rotational environment. This means indecision and lack of participation of bigger timeframes. Other sign that confirm this iphotesys is the enormous amount of weaknesses left above and below current price action. Specially above where we have, as written yesterday, 7 poor highs in a row established by previous different sessions: yesterday pit at 2498, then 25155, 25475 and 2556, then other 3 poor highs left by other sessions: GB at 23365, Tokyo at 25535 and finally preUS at 2563.
Downside we have current Tokyo poor low plus yesterday GB poor low at 2430 then, far below, an other GB poor low at 23333.

As a consequence of this analysis I think we are going to break this situation above or below. Above in order to get rid of all the weaknesses left from previous sessions, below in order to liquidate inventories became too long. If it will liquidate first I suggest to carry forward the weaknesses left above because I think they are too much to be left untested. If instead we will go upside first, then we could have 2 different scenarios: a substantial confirmed break above the weaknesses and acceptation above them and in this case we could disregard what we left downside at least for a substantial amount of time or, we could go upwards, remove the weaknesses and then find rejection: in this case a full sharp liquidation is expected.
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  • #4,091
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:19am Apr 6, 2017 2:19am
IMPORTANT NOTE: About weekly timeframe I wrote that we are in balance. This is only partially true. In fact technically we are in one timeframing higher in the last 3 weeks: meaning in a trend upside. So I think we have to consider this in our anlaysis even if the behaviour of market participants is clearly uncertain and rotational.
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  • #4,092
  • Apr 7, 2017 1:30am Apr 7, 2017 1:30am
17/04/07 FRIDAY 08:30+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance in a weak weekly trend upside (technically one timeframing higher in the last 3 weeks but almost in balance in the last 2 weeks) and in a daily balance.

Price is rotating around current major composite poc at 2484 (it may easily switch to 2481 but it doesn't matter so much) and yesteray GB session made an inside profile, meaning that yesterday GB range is contained inside the previous GB session.

I expected and I'm still expecting a break from this location because I think the weaknesses left above and currently also below are very impressive, plus current volume node is really mature. From here we could imagine a shake out and then a directional move up or down. Up if it will go to get rid of all the weaknesses left above (25155, 25365, 25475, 25535, 2556 and finally 2563) and continue the auction upside, while down in order to liquidate inventories and to get rid of the late weaknesses left downside (2450, 2430 and far below them 2333)

As written yesterday, because nothing changed from then, if it will go initially upside to take out the listed weaknesses in that direction, we have to evaluate the reaction above them: in case of rejection we could see price liquidate significantly in order to finish the work downside. If instad we will see acceptation above them we could imagine a continuation upside even leaving downside all the weaknesses at least for some time.

If instead it will go downside first, then we have to see the reaction of market participants around the major short/mid term levels at 2428, 24072, 2396 and 23805: price could go downside in order to remove 2450 and 2430 and then it could find reaction at one of these levels. Frome there it could continue higher in order to get rid of the weaknesses listed above.

So, as you see the scenarios vary significantly but at least we have a base upon which we could plan our decisions.
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  • #4,093
  • Apr 7, 2017 9:18am Apr 7, 2017 9:18am
Quoting Lock
17/04/07 FRIDAY 08:30+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ..... If instead it will go downside first, then we have to see the reaction of market participants around the major short/mid term levels at 2428, 24072, 2396 and 23805: price could go downside in order to remove 2450 and 2430 and then it could find reaction at one of these levels. Frome there it could continue higher in order to get rid of the weaknesses listed above. ....
So, GB decided to go downside first and took out the 2 poor lows at 2450 and 2430. Then preUS shaked out during news and continue lower down to our last major level. (above it a couple of pips). Then it started to balance above it. As you see pit US opened with a substantial gap downside from yesterday low and it bounced once at 23805 (1 pip above it). Sicerly I do not know if this test is enough to consider the possibility for a correction upside. FIrst becasue I was waiting to find stronger hands below it, secondly because we have a big gap downside working as resistance. In any case monitor carefully the situation. We could continue lower only finding acceptation below 23805. If not, we could remain here in balance waiting for more information or even retrace back up to the coposite poc 2484.
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  • #4,094
  • Apr 7, 2017 9:21am Apr 7, 2017 9:21am
If the correction upside will fail (and if we will not complete the session in balance) I see a double pit pass gap down to 23275-23345 as a possible target.
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  • #4,095
  • Apr 7, 2017 9:42am Apr 7, 2017 9:42am
Quoting Lock
If the correction upside will fail (and if we will not complete the session in balance) I see a double pit pass gap down to 23275-23345 as a possible target.
hi lock

the big bold if in the above sentence gives me the feeling you are favoring a correction of the previous poor highs above 2500 level
  • #4,096
  • Apr 7, 2017 10:14am Apr 7, 2017 10:14am
Quoting titi14
{quote} hi lock the big bold if in the above sentence gives me the feeling you are favoring a correction of the previous poor highs above 2500 level

No. I really do not know. Note that if for GB the major refs were 2428, 24072, 2396 and 23805 for pit session are slightly different. 24072 become 24065 (where is working now) and 2396 become 23975. While 2428 and 23805 are the same for both. So right now is between our major references balancing (between 23805 and 24065). If we will have accpeptation above them (23805, 23975 and 24065) we could aim at something more upside like infact our major comp. at 2484.
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  • #4,097
  • Apr 7, 2017 10:20am Apr 7, 2017 10:20am
I mean that if you bought right above 23805 you have to monitor carefully for acceptationabove 24065 in order to continue any higher.
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  • #4,098
  • Apr 7, 2017 10:25am Apr 7, 2017 10:25am
And if for instance we will see price up to 2428, again, monitor for acceptation above it. To make a long story brief: the supports we found going down are now resistances. Plus we still have a big gap downside. Surely it could retrace it (even if it is a rare situation for such a big gap) but if so we have to monitor carefully the progression upside. If infact it will not work upside we could have a sharp retracement downside back again to the 23805 in order to test it better. (btw I'm long too for now)
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  • #4,099
  • Apr 7, 2017 10:28am Apr 7, 2017 10:28am
Quoting Lock
And if for instance we will see price up to 2428, again, monitor for acceptation above it. To make a long story brief: the supports we found going down are now resistances. Plus we still have a big gap downside. Surely it could retrace it (even if it is a rare situation for such a big gap) but if so we have to monitor carefully the progression upside. If infact it will not work upside we could have a sharp retracement downside back again to the 23805 in order to test it better. (btw I'm long too for now)
i understand 100% what you are saying many many thanks it is of utmost help!!
  • #4,100
  • Apr 7, 2017 12:00pm Apr 7, 2017 12:00pm
Quoting Lock
I mean that if you bought right above 23805 you have to monitor carefully for acceptationabove 24065 in order to continue any higher.
Quoting Lock
And if for instance we will see price up to 2428, again, monitor for acceptation above it. To make a long story brief: the supports we found going down are now resistances. Plus we still have a big gap downside. Surely it could retrace it (even if it is a rare situation for such a big gap) but if so we have to monitor carefully the progression upside.
Quoting Lock
If infact it will not work upside we could have a sharp retracement downside back again to the 23805 in order to test it better. (btw I'm long too for now)

And after the non acceptation above 24065, here we are again at 23805 zone. Note anyhow that this is started from half back (G period high). I'm off for today. It may continue lower but it's too late in the day for me plus this market is very weak.
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