Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 829 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #16,561
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:00am Apr 5, 2017 11:00am
Quoting StudyFX
{quote} Hi Lem, I understand you were already in an AU short from a 1-2-3 set-up, but even with that tiny wick zone, this would've counted as a AU short based on DZ? This was my trade today which I am embarrassed about. But I would appreciate any feedback from all you guys. This is a M5 chart and the M-candles in the background are H1 candles. The M-candle with the little arrow on the bottom is the DZ candle. Here is how the trade went. At first, I don't like it when the DZ candle closes very close to the high/low, so I waited a bit before entering....
not sure about the dead zone don't think billy trades it, but billy usually counters the other side of the candle or anywhere from -20 -30. Lem, I'm not too sure about. think he counters depending on the wicks. I'm pretty sure either will clarify for you. don't stick in a stop loss! lol. stick your counter in like a stop loss
  • #16,562
  • Edited 5:43pm Apr 5, 2017 12:42pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting StudyFX
{quote} Hi Lem, I understand you were already in an AU short from a 1-2-3 set-up, but even with that tiny wick zone, this would've counted as a AU short based on DZ? This was my trade today which I am embarrassed about. But I would appreciate any feedback from all you guys. This is a M5 chart and the M-candles in the background are H1 candles. The M-candle with the little arrow on the bottom is the DZ candle. Here is how the trade went. At first, I don't like it when the DZ candle closes very close to the high/low, so I waited a bit before entering....
Hi SFX.

''...even with that tiny wick zone, this would've counted as a AU short based on DZ?''

Yes, that would be a valid short on The Dead Zone for AU. You obviously take a chance that price doesn't pop its head up first, as the zone is so shallow you'd technically be looking at a breakout. As I said, I was pretty confident it was going to drop.


''... I don't like it when the DZ candle closes very close to the high/low, so I waited a bit before entering.''

No, don't do this. If you're going to trade a line, trade the line. If you don't like the look of the set-up, look elsewhere. Work your way from the top of the list (the order my charts are posted in) and find one that you are happy with. If the zone is shallow, extend your (disaster) sl outside of the box by all means but don't alter the entry level.


''...I guess I should've avoided trading red news in the first place.''

Yes and no. Trading news is fine if you are going to enter on the movement. It is dangerous when you are already in a trade (as you discovered). I don't aim to leave a trade running free if news is due. Gapping will kill ya'. However, as today, you can see it work to my favour on the OIL trade. I knew it was coming and I set it up to get in if it came back down through the zone. Otherwise, I was out and safe.


''When price came back into the bottom WZ and came out of it, I bought 3 times the lot size I traded for my first trade and grabbed 5 pips.''

Ballsy. First of all for not walking away for the day once you got burned, secondly for upping your lot size. If that's based on stats, then yes, it's still a risk but it's a calculated risk.

The upper boundary of the lower WZ is where you would have countered and was the correct (re)-entry level.
  • #16,563
  • Apr 5, 2017 5:50pm Apr 5, 2017 5:50pm
Plenty of detail on what-was-what is contained in the posts above, so without further ado, here's how The Dead Zone played out for today across the pairs...

EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 35 KB


USDCAD
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 34 KB


AUDUSD
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 39 KB


USDNOK
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDNOKH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 37 KB


GBPNZD
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 32 KB
  • #16,564
  • Apr 5, 2017 5:52pm Apr 5, 2017 5:52pm
AUDNZD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 34 KB


GBPUSD
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 34 KB


CADJPY
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Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 33 KB


NZDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 34 KB


NZDJPY
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Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 34 KB
  • #16,565
  • Apr 5, 2017 5:54pm Apr 5, 2017 5:54pm
XAUUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 33 KB


USDJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 33 KB


GBPJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 32 KB


GER30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 33 KB


OILUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: OILUSDH1DeadZone5thApril17.png Size: 28 KB
  • #16,566
  • Apr 5, 2017 8:33pm Apr 5, 2017 8:33pm
Hi all, hope you are well, thanks for all the posts over last 6 months or so, great info and some good fun. Haha
I have been away from the pips as the time zone difference was getting me down. !
Now the clocks have changed around I can get back to it,
I promise myself I will be more formulated and follow my system strictly,
No chart to show so here is another, reminds me of myself.!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20161226_135053.jpg Size: 1.6 MB
Onwards and upwards...
  • #16,567
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:35pm Apr 5, 2017 9:35pm
Midday here in Oz, hoping that GB-US goes down to DPP,
Foto and text from fone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture+_2017-04-06-12-31-55.png Size: 106 KB
Onwards and upwards...
  • #16,568
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:46pm Apr 5, 2017 11:46pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} not sure about the dead zone don't think billy trades it, but billy usually counters the other side of the candle or anywhere from -20 -30. Lem, I'm not too sure about. think he counters depending on the wicks. I'm pretty sure either will clarify for you. don't stick in a stop loss! lol. stick your counter in like a stop loss
Yeah, I should make sure not to make the SL mistake again.

Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi SFX. ''...even with that tiny wick zone, this would've counted as a AU short based on DZ?'' Yes, that would be a valid short on The Dead Zone for AU. You obviously take a chance that price doesn't pop its head up first, as the zone is so shallow you'd technically be looking at a breakout. As I said, I was pretty confident it was going to drop. ''...
As always, thank you Lem for the detailed feedback!
  • #16,569
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:16am Apr 6, 2017 2:16am
Bailed on LO with 12 pips , hasn't got to DPP yet !
Glad to profit though, take care all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture+_2017-04-06-17-12-19.png Size: 106 KB
Onwards and upwards...
  • #16,570
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:19am Apr 6, 2017 2:19am
@billytt hows it going bill! noticed your viewing. back in the realm of trading today?
  • #16,571
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:20am Apr 6, 2017 2:20am
E/J just shat its pants off the H4 4:00 now scooped Tuesdays low
  • #16,572
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:27am Apr 6, 2017 2:27am
Morning all, Yesterday (Wed) was good. i caught that spike on cable , more accident than actual method.Dax low broke well for +10 which i didnt trade..
Today i caught +10 off the Cable 07-45 break. the high broke but didnt trigger then i shorted. dax dropped nicely after the 07-55 .which i didnt trade.
Now back to my Lady's to do more work. Her garden is looking good.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,573
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:28am Apr 6, 2017 2:28am
Quoting Piphunter00
@billytt hows it going bill! noticed your viewing. back in the realm of trading today?
Hi bud, everything is good. i trade then get out. sometimes i look at FF on mobile but dont usually comment.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,574
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:33am Apr 6, 2017 2:33am
I keep getting pinged. i can only comment on Daily Break, 04-00 Break and Cable 07-45 break. Anything else can be answered by the masters yay.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,575
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:35am Apr 6, 2017 2:35am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi bud, everything is good. i trade then get out. sometimes i look at FF on mobile but dont usually comment.
I know its crazy, you've cleaned up before most people have even made sense of what there 10 moving averages and multi timframe cci+rsi is telling them lol enjoy your day. I am currently waiting on your old friend AU to hit one of my goal post's. he seems tired on the pitch this morning
  • #16,576
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:37am Apr 6, 2017 2:37am
Quoting billytt
I keep getting pinged. i can only comment on Daily Break, 04-00 Break and Cable 07-45 break. Anything else can be answered by the masters yay.
speaking of daily break, how would you have treated the e/j break today, it didn't take out yesterdays low (well it did but right around the open of the todays d1 candle) around London open it retraced to that low where it then shat its pants and made a run on Tuesdays low. when dealing with the daily break are you only focusing on catching the break of the previous d1 candle or does any daily low count (asking only for stats purposes) for now me and AU going to duke it out
  • #16,577
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:58am Apr 6, 2017 2:58am
[quote=Piphunter00;9741181]{quote} speaking of daily break, how would you have treated the e/j break today, it didn't take out yesterdays low (well it did but right around the open of the todays d1 candle) around L

Hi, If you trade on a Daily Break you focus on the High/Low break and nothing else.
Today the E/J low broke and it kept going. forget Tuesday,1 hour bars anything. Break,trigger ,trade.
If you start scouting around for other info you will lose, if you keep swapping pairs to trade you'll lose.
E/J daily is best & Cable is good. 04-00 break A/U is best.
For a better odds why not trade 04-00 with E/J, today would of been good with less risk.

sometimes, we can have 2 entries on a trade , one for 5 points and the second to let run. This can lead to problems but it is quite good. OR a retrace trace before +10 is made.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,578
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:59am Apr 6, 2017 2:59am
i am out in a moment as i have things to do,,,lol PLUS it is sunny yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,579
  • Apr 6, 2017 3:08am Apr 6, 2017 3:08am
Quoting billytt
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} speaking of daily break, how would you have treated the e/j break today, it didn't take out yesterdays low (well it did but right around the open of the todays d1 candle) around L Hi, If you trade on a Daily Break you focus on the High/Low break and nothing else. Today the E/J low broke and it kept going. forget Tuesday,1 hour bars anything. Break,trigger ,trade. If you start scouting around for other info you will lose, if you keep swapping pairs to trade you'll lose. E/J daily is best & Cable is good. 04-00 break
...
this is why I was asking, when I get round to collecting some stats on the daily break i want to know what to really focus on, so if i see it break another days low other than the previous i wont be counting that as part of the method. for now i have my stats on AU building with every day and will pursue profiting from that, although E/J would have defo been a treat today no matter how you played it, h4 bar, 7:30 bar they all came in!

PS. (with the 7:30 there is no pip buffer is there? just the :45)
  • #16,580
  • Apr 6, 2017 3:16am Apr 6, 2017 3:16am
A/U 04-00 Break from 3rd april.
Attached Image

1 = it made +6 minus spread, i would of got +5 due to very low spread, but it failed the stats test.. (19 range)
2 = %%
3 = it made + 6 , as above it would of been good to me but failed the stats test. (20 range)
4 = today (19 range)
i traded none of the above as i have been trading cable.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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