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  • #149,341
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:41pm Apr 5, 2017 3:41pm
Btw. sisse. Today FOMC and the hint of taper tantrum. Do I see it well that its just a hint markets will not remember tomorrow so its same all (outlooks) on all instruments? As you said - window to a future of not so cheap money - as usually from my experience would guess markets (mostly equities) will definitely not look through the window untill its knocking on the doors
  • #149,342
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:42pm Apr 5, 2017 3:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol ....don't say it out loud you may scare some of the fortune tellers and quick millions marketeers around ... how are those short going first ? sisse
I'm rich in knowledge...and have gained a little bit more loot than I started with 4 years ago. If nothing else I can say that

Shorts going beautifully. Took TP1 right around where you did (@hoom would be proud) looking for a 1.0730 test followed by 1.05xx and 1.03xx for tp 2 and 3. Or trail if the ranges hold. Easy management from here....now that I brought my perspective back down to Earth

Maybe even tack on a momentum trade if this level and the 1.05xx level goes in an orderly fashion. Sorry for the xx, not at the charts
  • #149,343
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:42pm Apr 5, 2017 3:42pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Just noticed this month is my 4 year anniversary here. I'm supposed to be rich by now
If not yet, statistics say 6 is needed (passive participation) for most. Damn i wish i could have backtracked that message of trader that posted perfect 1-6 year path of "every" trader. It was so accurate i laughed my ass off. Its so real it isnt even funny in some ways. Fitting psychological behaviour and conditioning of trading year by year and it really does come down to developing bussines plan inside/along your brain. Your brains need to be taken care of like a cattle inside fence.
The end point it comes to really is: dont quit.
  • #149,344
  • Edited 4:25pm Apr 5, 2017 3:47pm | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm rich in knowledge...and have gained a little bit more loot than I started with 4 years ago. If nothing else I can say that Shorts going beautifully. Took TP1 right around where you did (@hoom would be proud) looking for a 1.0730 test followed by 1.05xx and 1.03xx for tp 2 and 3. Or trail if the ranges hold. Easy management from here....now that I brought my perspective back down to Earth Maybe even tack on a momentum trade if this level and the 1.05xx level goes in an orderly fashion. Sorry for the xx, not at the charts
congrats. same here. this time I divided the postitions for all levels (except top) bellow entry point. Before did not take profits on flip which was a mistake.

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P.S.: also loaded in oil longs + shy to trigger UK100 shorts. Sitll waiting for UK500 to attack the highs again. I think that will keep UK100 floating for a few more days.
  • #149,345
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:48pm Apr 5, 2017 3:48pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If not yet, statistics say 6 is needed (passive participation) for most. Damn i wish i could have backtracked that message of trader that posted perfect 1-6 year path of "every" trader. It was so accurate i laughed my ass off. Its so real it isnt even funny in some ways. Fitting psychological behaviour and conditioning of trading year by year and it really does come down to developing bussines plan inside/along your brain. Your brains need to be taken care of like a cattle inside fence. The end point it comes to really is: dont quit.
I believe it. I've been reminiscing going through my old posts and visiting the EU thread lately......a night and day difference to be sure. Makes me excited to see where I am in another 4 years, also gives some perspective on traders that have been here almost 10 years like sisse and gator and ptl

I'd love to see that 1-6 year path, pretty sure it'd be hilariously accurate like the trading swing chart of newbie traders

You know what they say- if you hang around the barbershop long enough, eventually you get a hair cut
  • #149,346
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:51pm Apr 5, 2017 3:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}spoos took a 20pt dump (& counting) on the back of balance sheet and "stocks too high" comments...btfd...
I'm hoping it's time for a big dump! Has Yellen grown up yet?
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #149,347
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:56pm Apr 5, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Just noticed this month is my 4 year anniversary here. I'm supposed to be rich by now
hey if you're breaking even or better then you're surpassing what most "traders" do. Otoh, 100 SPY bought and held 4 years m/l to the day would be up to about $23,500 from $15,500 - around 11-12% per year. If all you ever did was average 11% per year and you started putting $10k into that vehicle every year from your 30th birthday onwards, then it'd be worth ~$230k by the time you turned 60. I still say "keep your powder dry" and "BTFD" is all the average working grunt investor needs to know, except you can wait a long time for a decent dip some decades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,348
  • Edited 4:23pm Apr 5, 2017 4:01pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I believe it. I've been reminiscing going through my old posts and visiting the EU thread lately......a night and day difference to be sure. Make me excited to see where I am in another 4 years. I'd love to see that 1-6 year path, pretty sure it'd be hilariously accurate like the trading swing chart of newbie traders
Inserted Video


It really comes down to this concept of cartoon. Turning process of wolverine transformation in controll by observing the process and knowing when to pull it out/in trough trial and error and most importantly looking back, inside the process. You dont turn into wolverine but you undrestand how to best be that side watcher of the turn in process to collect some coins here and there. Observing the shark over and over, adopting, then shaping the game that hits the edge over time.


I really forgot who exactly posted it (not on FF) but it was 95% true , you could take 100 random traders and fit them to that.
It boils down to initial person blaming everything outside for his/her failure to stages later in being in control of process and putting all blame on its brain.
Progress
-everyone hunts my stop
-real traders trade, bad ones teach
-too hard cant make money in this game, even with knowledge expanded a lot
-i get better, most people i know droped out but i stay becouse i am bit more optimistic than most
-hm BE after BE, must be doing something correct
-starting to pass performant knowledge to other participants


0:00 foot in the markets, lets see.
0:14 news whats going on, plots best news channels
0:30 countertrend trading, "everything that goes up must come down" (time irrelevant)
0:50 several cuts.....dont care wont take a loss
1:20 been in deep R loss for many many times, time to learn a lesson, never to let it happen again
1:30 transofrmation begins as long as you keep moon on the right shoulder
2:00 shark fish, human,- trader is there to take oportunity, asset irrelevant, cut the loss quickly if spike against
2:15 dont let P/L stare in your face, one should stare at markets face.


It was a bit like this but the post really tocuhed it way more accurately and deeply. And anyone who went trough it and seen light on end of tunnel saw that post with a bit of tear in eyes. Becouse everyone is so close to giving up at so many stages.
  • #149,349
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:11pm Apr 5, 2017 4:11pm
An interesting FOMC minutes because it unlocked a few hints into the future. For actual trading and in the Euro, as more than widely expected pure and only: Nothingness.

We are rolling in a flat as pancake comatose day/week so far.

This week we are tracking @primejarvis flows so nothing got trigger, we'll see how it goes in the upcoming sessions till NFP...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
...Easy management from here.......
Thats sounds very good, loud and clear ....so what happen if we never move down? ....nothing isn't it, homework is done as for the current levels: nothing to see, same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,350
  • Edited 4:31pm Apr 5, 2017 4:11pm | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}hey if you're breaking even or better then you're surpassing what most "traders" do. Otoh, 100 SPY bought and held 4 years m/l to the day would be up to about $23,500 from $15,500 - around 11-12% per year. If all you ever did was average 11% per year and you started putting $10k into that vehicle every year from your 30th birthday onwards, then it'd be worth ~$230k by the time you turned 60. I still say "keep your powder dry" and "BTFD" is all the average working grunt investor needs to know, except you can wait a long time for a decent dip...
sorry....$2MM...that'd be enough for me plus as you get older you can fold more in every year
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,351
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:49pm Apr 5, 2017 4:49pm
pendings sucked today.. had one on s uj 111.6 missed and another on eu s 0685 with tight stops missed.. still have a gu long pending 2259 jic.. still have a shot pre nfp drift.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,352
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:53pm Apr 5, 2017 4:53pm
Below 0.9800 by 4/21/17. In Eur/Usd Just a projection. Looks impossible and improvbable. Some surprise would have to occur as many talk of going long. Maybe that date will be a top instead of a bottom.
  • #149,353
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:56pm Apr 5, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting Michigan
Below 0.9800 by 4/21/17. In Eur/Usd Just a projection. Looks impossible and improvbable. Some surprise would have to occur as many talk of going long. Maybe that date will be a top instead of a bottom.
with ya on a drop.. just waiting for the rise first. after 0585 is my better chance for a rise. in my way of thinking. rate hike? sure its coming.. but its not a big secret. it may have been priced in for years now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,354
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:04pm Apr 5, 2017 9:04pm
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/fed-s...927&yptr=yahoo

The Fed wants to start unwinding its massive $4.5Trio balance sheet. OK. What does that mean? The balance sheet has what kind of assets? Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, right? So if the Fed is going to be selling (dollar denominated) Treasurys and other assets, what does that mean for the USD? What does it mean for the bond market & for equities?

Enter the incompetent Trump regime and its new tune - we have a military and we will be willing to use it. So watch out, K.J. Un, Assad, and all the rest. More Fed means more volatility and so does US jingoism. Now, where is that dry powder....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,355
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:35pm Apr 5, 2017 9:35pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/fed-s...927&yptr=yahoo The Fed wants to start unwinding its massive $4.5Trio balance sheet. OK. What does that mean? The balance sheet has what kind of assets? Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, right? So if the Fed is going to be selling (dollar denominated) Treasurys and other assets, what does that mean for the USD? What does it mean for the bond market & for equities? Enter the incompetent...
we got an idiot president doing his best to give Putin a Bj. Our idiot president spent time today to explain how the chemical attack affected him. his solution was incoherent. Meanwhile i hope he got his feelings off his chest. I guess the feelings of those who died or still suffering didnt have feelings that mattered. meanwhile in the Bj aspect.. guess where these chemical weapons come from? Guess who said Syria didnt have these weapons. i have slim doubts that it wasn't a Russian plane who bombed with chemical weapons. Or at least i would have been fooled.
we got a secretary of state giving N korea and Syria a green light to do whatever.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,356
  • Apr 5, 2017 10:11pm Apr 5, 2017 10:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
we got an idiot president
the reddest pages of the history books are written about what happens when fools and demagogues ascend to power and get control of armies. It usually works out better with the fool. Now we have both and a deep bench. We'll see, though. Risk markets been itching for a pullback and between the Fed and the armies of fools, the stage is being set....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,357
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:07am Apr 6, 2017 12:07am
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/art...at-their-peril

$426Bio coming off in 2018 is a whole lotta POMO yo. How ya gonna trade that expectation?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,358
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:36am Apr 6, 2017 2:36am
Watch-out Euro tripping at the open. Markets digesting minutes and pricing expectations +60% (up from 40% from last hike) of next hike before the summer ...you know the drill a tick above +/-70% means a done deal.... we are ready to move and start the week in currencies ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,359
  • Apr 6, 2017 3:10am Apr 6, 2017 3:10am
Relevant.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...47#post9600147
  • #149,360
  • Apr 6, 2017 4:29am Apr 6, 2017 4:29am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If not yet, statistics say 6 is needed (passive participation) for most. Damn i wish i could have backtracked that message of trader that posted perfect 1-6 year path of "every" trader. It was so accurate i laughed my ass off. Its so real it isnt even funny in some ways. Fitting psychological behaviour and conditioning of trading year by year and it really does come down to developing bussines plan inside/along your brain. Your brains need to be taken care of like a cattle inside fence. The end point it comes to really is: dont quit.
Perhaps this one you think about. I have seen it in different variants:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3156 Is absolutely something in it. ( BTW I did not register account on Forexfactory before I was 1 1/2 year in to my forex eductaion ) Still learning and developing my skills but start to feel like this:
Inserted Video

from this
Inserted Video
Trading in the shadow of SM
15 traders viewing now