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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #27,461
  • Apr 5, 2017 10:23am Apr 5, 2017 10:23am
can i ask what your trade rules are in regards to once your at break even MR Pip ((damian)on that note what do you prefer to be called on here by your name or mr pip)

once your at break even do you just let it hit your take profit or stop(at break even plus x)

i think i am right in believing once your approaching you profit level and price is accelerating then you trail out your position

i took a trade on cl and i noticed that every time i trade i miss a lot of what was available as i don't seem to give the trade any room to breath
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  • #27,462
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:21am Apr 5, 2017 11:21am
Quoting johny8984
can i ask what your trade rules are in regards to once your at break even MR Pip ((damian)on that note what do you prefer to be called on here by your name or mr pip) once your at break even do you just let it hit your take profit or stop(at break even plus x) i think i am right in believing once your approaching you profit level and price is accelerating then you trail out your position i took a trade on cl and i noticed that every time i trade i miss a lot of what was available as i don't seem to give the trade any room to breath {image}
You can call me anything you want that is nice. I get to a breakeven at the test of structure and trail aggressively at the 127 ext until price takes me out. The goal is a one to one or better.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #27,463
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:29am Apr 5, 2017 11:29am
thoughts for this morning

US30 -62T

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Mr.Pip... I too also like the new graphic. the old one was fine too though.

Its amazing how images can say a thousand words and sometimes different words to different people.
  • #27,464
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:33am Apr 5, 2017 11:33am
Quoting johny8984
can i ask what your trade rules are in regards to once your at break even MR Pip ((damian)on that note what do you prefer to be called on here by your name or mr pip) once your at break even do you just let it hit your take profit or stop(at break even plus x) i think i am right in believing once your approaching you profit level and price is accelerating then you trail out your position i took a trade on cl and i noticed that every time i trade i miss a lot of what was available as i don't seem to give the trade any room to breath {image}
Hello hello

I noticed that your trading oil. if you don't mind, can i ask what your thoughts on it are as per

  1. respect to structure
  2. order flow (Does it trend nicely?)
  3. and any other observations
  4. success rate (do you find that PA is easy to read?)

practiced with it but never made the switch

  • #27,465
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:50am Apr 5, 2017 11:50am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Hello hello I noticed that your trading oil. if you don't mind, can i ask what your thoughts on it are as per respect to structure order flow (Does it trend nicely?) and any other observations success rate (do you find that PA is easy to read?) practiced with it but never made the switch
To be honest its not that different ive been trading it just the same as the ym

main things ive noticed

  1. adjust to the momentum of the asset as it has no problems switching directions and moving with pace (the candles generally look taller than ym)
  2. its common to get slippage of a couple of ticks (on ym i find im generally filled at the price i intended but with cl ive noticed when placing market orders on cl it can be a couple of ticks worse/better)
  3. it respects the fib levels and harmonic projections just the same as ym
  4. be aware of Wednesdays with the oil inventory slippage in that first minute is crazy whilst yes you may catch that initial move i have found it difficult to get out at the correct price had slippage of over 15 ticks one first attempt (i wait 5 mins now)

  • #27,466
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:47pm Apr 5, 2017 12:47pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Hello hello I noticed that your trading oil. if you don't mind, can i ask what your thoughts on it are as per respect to structure order flow (Does it trend nicely?) and any other observations success rate (do you find that PA is easy to read?) practiced with it but never made the switch
Mack,

I mainly trade CL and found it very easy to trade after doing a little research. I'll list my method of research here for anyone interested.

Studying the 15 minute chart, I went through the last month of data and every day listed these things:

Initial stop hunt to start the day? If yes, start time, end time, and range
1st leg start time, 1st leg end time, tick value of leg
Leg 1 correction/consolidation start time, end time, range of consolidation/correction
2nd leg start, 2nd leg end, tick value of leg
Leg 2 correction/consolidation start time, end time, range of consolidation/correction
Repeat for Leg 3, but note not every day provides a third leg.

I did this all on a spreadsheet so I could take the average and median of the data, with each measurement having it's own column.

Let's just say there is a lot of similarity in the day to day flow of crude, and a lot of money to be made once you know how long the price legs and periods of consolidation last on average and the typical range they cover. It really empowers you when you know when to expect the market to move and when to sit tight because the market is in consolidation and will likely remain that way for another hour or two. For anyone really looking to get precision entries and exits I would encourage a similar study for your traded instrument.
  • #27,467
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:57pm Apr 5, 2017 12:57pm
Quoting Forthebulls
{quote} Mack, I mainly trade CL and found it very easy to trade after doing a little research. I'll list my method of research here for anyone interested. Studying the 15 minute chart, I went through the last month of data and every day listed these things: Initial stop hunt to start the day? If yes, start time, end time, and range 1st leg start time, 1st leg end time, tick value of leg Leg 1 correction/consolidation start time, end time, range of consolidation/correction 2nd leg start, 2nd leg end, tick value of leg Leg 2 correction/consolidation...
Quoting johny8984
{quote} To be honest its not that different ive been trading it just the same as the ym main things ive noticed adjust to the momentum of the asset as it has no problems switching directions and moving with pace (the candles generally look taller than ym) its common to get slippage of a couple of ticks (on ym i find im generally filled at the price i intended but with cl ive noticed when placing market orders on cl it can be a couple of ticks worse/better) it respects the fib levels and harmonic projections just the same as ym be aware of Wednesdays...
Thanks guys
  • #27,468
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:47pm Apr 5, 2017 4:47pm
Quoting Forthebulls
{quote} Mack, I mainly trade CL and found it very easy to trade after doing a little research. I'll list my method of research here for anyone interested. Studying the 15 minute chart, I went through the last month of data and every day listed these things: Initial stop hunt to start the day? If yes, start time, end time, and range 1st leg start time, 1st leg end time, tick value of leg Leg 1 correction/consolidation start time, end time, range of consolidation/correction 2nd leg start, 2nd leg end, tick value of leg Leg 2 correction/consolidation...
had a couple hours spare thought id give it a shot

O my .... That is eye Opening i knew there was a general rhythm to the cl market but you can almost set an alarm clock to some parts of the day

may have just become a little more profitable lol
  • #27,469
  • Apr 5, 2017 8:27pm Apr 5, 2017 8:27pm
Since we are discussing about crude oil. There is a nice rotation to short in H4 chart
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  • #27,470
  • Apr 5, 2017 8:29pm Apr 5, 2017 8:29pm
Do you guys look at higher timeframe to trade intraday?

for example how the H4 chart of crude oil has a rotation to short. When trading intraday, if you only take setups to short, no longs. Do you get higher win probability?
  • #27,471
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:06pm Apr 5, 2017 9:06pm
Quoting lithium1
Do you guys look at higher timeframe to trade intraday? for example how the H4 chart of crude oil has a rotation to short. When trading intraday, if you only take setups to short, no longs. Do you get higher win probability?
I use the daily chart to determine a directional bias. Right now I am actually bullish, one thing to note about oil: historically it is bullish April and May due to pump demand (spring break travel season). There was a nice drop today with inventory news showing a surplus (nice consolidation opportunity for yesterdays monster bull leg)... But notice my 15 minute swing chart, the volume shows that there is no supply remaining to move this market lower and I would almost expect to see a nice move to the upside come London open to resume the uptrend.
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  • #27,472
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:55am Apr 6, 2017 12:55am
Hello Traders,

First post in this thread i think. Some trades i did yesterday for forex. Not sure if you guys do only dow jones here but i hope you guys don't mind i post some forex ones. 4 winners 1 loser. Charts are self explanatory. Please ignore the limits currently running. Look at yesterdays charts for my entries and exits. I only do trades within the golden ratio. Once again, thank you for all your effort damien. God bless you indeed.
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  • #27,473
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:22am Apr 6, 2017 2:22am
Dear all,

It was said that expectations have a 70% chance of playing out.

Is the following probability calculation accurate?

For example, with 70% winning chance,
a) to consecutively win two time, probability is 42%
b) to consecutively lose two time, probability is 12%

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  • #27,474
  • Edited 5:09am Apr 6, 2017 4:46am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting Forthebulls
{quote} I use the daily chart to determine a directional bias. Right now I am actually bullish, one thing to note about oil: historically it is bullish April and May due to pump demand (spring break travel season). There was a nice drop today with inventory news showing a surplus (nice consolidation opportunity for yesterdays monster bull leg)... But notice my 15 minute swing chart, the volume shows that there is no supply remaining to move this market lower and I would almost expect to see a nice move to the upside come London open to resume the...
hey there i noticed on your second chart you have a volume profile with value zones plotted on it can i ask where you got this indicator from?

EDIT: are you on nt7 if so i think i know which tool your using
  • #27,475
  • Apr 6, 2017 5:57am Apr 6, 2017 5:57am
Quoting CrocodileRex
Hello Traders, First post in this thread i think. Some trades i did yesterday for forex. Not sure if you guys do only dow jones here but i hope you guys don't mind i post some forex ones. 4 winners 1 loser. Charts are self explanatory. Please ignore the limits currently running. Look at yesterdays charts for my entries and exits. I only do trades within the golden ratio. Once again, thank you for all your effort damien. God bless you indeed. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}

Hi, thanks for sharing. I'm interested in your entries and exits, could you explain these please? You seem to trade a very small parts of the swing, most people on the thread are trading for an expectation of new high or low and trade a much larger portion of the wing.
  • #27,476
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:07am Apr 6, 2017 6:07am
Quoting tmiddled
{quote} Hi, thanks for sharing. I'm interested in your entries and exits, could you explain these please? You seem to trade a very small parts of the swing, most people on the thread are trading for an expectation of new high or low and trade a much larger portion of the wing.
Yes, damien said that he's usually going for 1 to 1 for ABCD but i find that too stressful to hold for so long. It's just different personal opinion. Note that i am not a profitable trader yet so don't take my words on it. I use 78.6 as my stoploss or the recent swing that retraced from the fib plus few pips. Only going for 1:1 ratio. For example, if my projected stoploss is 13 pips stoploss, then so will the take profit for 13 pips. If the expectancy is 70%, i will end up in profit hopefully.
  • #27,477
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:17am Apr 6, 2017 6:17am
Quoting johny8984
{quote} hey there i noticed on your second chart you have a volume profile with value zones plotted on it can i ask where you got this indicator from? EDIT: are you on nt7 if so i think i know which tool your using
Sure, it's the DValueArea from futures io for NT8. To access their indicators and addons you do need to pay a $100 lifetime membership. But they have other nice tools like footprint charts and supply demand zones. Some of these would cost you over $1000 for big brand packages like orderflowanalytics or Logik Volume Wand. So it's a pretty good deal in my opinion.

To follow up on my oil prediction, it did exactly what I expected: leg up at 2am London open. I was using a footprint chart for these trades, but will show the 5 minute chart. First long entry was a bad one, -7. Second long entry paid out +18 so a total of +11 ticks before deciding to go back to bed. Now off to the day job.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,478
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:33am Apr 6, 2017 6:33am
Quoting Forthebulls
{quote} Sure, it's the DValueArea from futures io for NT8. To access their indicators and addons you do need to pay a $100 lifetime membership. But they have other nice tools like footprint charts and supply demand zones. Some of these would cost you over $1000 for big brand packages like orderflowanalytics or Logik Volume Wand. So it's a pretty good deal in my opinion. To follow up on my oil prediction, it did exactly what I expected: leg up at 2am London open. I was using a footprint chart for these trades, but will show the 5 minute chart. First...
You can also find DValueArea for Ninja Trader 8 here: http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/local_links.php?s=&catid=7&keyid=&filter=&page=1&pp=15&sort=r
  • #27,479
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:36am Apr 6, 2017 6:36am
Quoting CrocodileRex
{quote} Yes, damien said that he's usually going for 1 to 1 for ABCD but i find that too stressful to hold for so long. It's just different personal opinion. Note that i am not a profitable trader yet so don't take my words on it. I use 78.6 as my stoploss or the recent swing that retraced from the fib plus few pips. Only going for 1:1 ratio. For example, if my projected stoploss is 13 pips stoploss, then so will the take profit for 13 pips. If the expectancy is 70%, i will end up in profit hopefully.
Thanks for the explanation, hopefully it works!
  • #27,480
  • Apr 6, 2017 7:36am Apr 6, 2017 7:36am
Quoting pereiraalex
{quote} You can also find DValueArea for Ninja Trader 8 here: http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/local_links.php?s=&catid=7&keyid=&filter=&page=1&pp=15&sort=r
thanks for that
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