Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

Quoting kfarawi

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{quote} Thank you for your reply GoldHun ... unfortunately that didn't solve the problem. Is it due to the fact that my broker has 5 digits after the comma in their data ?

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} I have 5 digits with my broker too, but no problems.. Try this: First open the daily chart of the pair, thank go through every time frames (4hr, 1hr down to 1 minute) than return to 5 minutes and attach the indicator pls. See if this solves the problem. Also does it cause this problem on all the pairs or some pairs?? Please advise....

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Quoting kfarawi

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{quote} GoldTheHun...my mistake...it's all good now...I didn't know that ATRclose was used and I had changed the name of that indicator...sorry about the inconvenience...looking forward to trying this. Cheers !

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} You're welcome Allthings... Actually these levels makes it easier to feel the market (at least for me). When I watch the price action, I pay close attention to which levels are holding.. That gives me a feeling of the daily intentions. This is not %100 of course, but still helps. Generally the price will not touch both the D1Res0 and D1Sup0 in the same day. That is an advantage for me for example. If price goes up to D1Res1, it very rarely returns and touches the D1Sup0.. When you watch the price action together with these levels you will...

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Quoting Allthings-R1

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{quote} That is why I said thanks I am working on several tasks at this moment, apart from my family duties. Not really spare brainpower these days for adding new golden stuff but I will follow the thread and start "feeling" your system (thanks again) most probably after Easter time. So please, let some pips available !!!

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Quoting forexcentric

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Hi GoldTheHun, You said that the formula for random walk is Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore. I have two questions : 1. Volatility is the standard deviation of natural logarithmic daily return for some number of days ? If yes, which is that number of days ? 2. What means bars in sqrt(bars) ? And why this term is necessary ? It is for adapting somehow the daily volatility to the m5 chart ?

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Quoting salamanda74

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Hi Gold, As I use a different platform and cannot look at the indicator in action, please would you set out the calculation for D1 Res 0 and D1 Sup 0 using previous day OHLC data and the ATR. What period daily ATR are you using? Thanks

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Quoting salamanda74

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Hi Gold, As I use a different platform and cannot look at the indicator in action, please would you set out the calculation for D1 Res 0 and D1 Sup 0 using previous day OHLC data and the ATR. What period daily ATR are you using? Thanks

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} Sorry forexcentric, I have missed that post. Thanks for reminding. The method of calculation that I use is a very simple one actually. In a day we have 288 of 5 minute bars. In a week we have 1400 of 5 minute bars. So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms). For daily calculations the expected levels become Daily open +-volatility * Sqrt(288) * ZScore For weekly Sqrt(1400) is used.. Hope this helps.. Good luck...

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Quoting mattkirby

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{quote} Thanks for explaining. But one more question on this. What is ZScore?

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Quoting forexcentric

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Thank you, Gold! One more question: you said "So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms).". So the daily volatility is the standard deviation of the 288 m5 bars from previous day ? I mean, you calculate a standard deviation after you calculate the absolute difference between m5 bars, right ?

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Quoting mattkirby

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{quote} Thanks for explaining. But one more question on this. What is ZScore?

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Quoting forexcentric

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{quote} I found this: The algorithm to compute a Z-Score is simple. Start with a list of numbers representing common values for something. Compute the mean of this list. The mean is just a simple average. Then compute the standard deviation of the list of numbers. The standard deviation is the average distance between each number in the list, and the mean of the list. Now take a new number that you want to compare to the list of numbers. Subtract the mean of the list from that number, then divide the result by the standard deviation of the list....

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} Sorry forexcentric, I have missed that post. Thanks for reminding. The method of calculation that I use is a very simple one actually. In a day we have 288 of 5 minute bars. In a week we have 1400 of 5 minute bars. So I calculate the absolute difference of closes of 5 minute bars to find volatility (no logarithms). For daily calculations the expected levels become Daily open +-volatility * Sqrt(288) * ZScore For weekly Sqrt(1400) is used.. Hope this helps.. Good luck...

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} Signıficant ZScores are 1, 1.645, 1.96, 2.58 So the volatility is multiplied by these numbers in order to arrive at the levels.. You should look up ZScores in wikipedia. They have a deeper explanation with pic samples. Hope this helps.. Good Luck....

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Quoting FireFries

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A very nice simple system to follow. Thank you, GoldtheHun. Like the "set and forget", entered 2 entries today, one TP and one still hanging around the entry price. So if SL is 0.5%, 2 entry per day. Possible outcomes: worst case: 1% lost (eg. 2x SL) Best case: 3% gain (eg. 2x TP) Fantastic! Appreciate the contribution, GoldtheHun.

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