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Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

  • #41
  • Edited 5:19pm Apr 4, 2017 5:09pm | Edited 5:19pm
Quoting diamonddbw
This broker changes time @ 2100 GMT, 1700 NY. I reloaded indicator so it would reset for new day. In a case like this, would I only be looking to sell @ 78%, or can I also buy @ 23%? {image}
Yes that is the correct open for the day.
You should only decide on one direction. Either sell at 78 or buy at 23, not both on the same day. It is a one shot deal. If you get stopped out, no more trading these levels for the day. Whether you decide to buy or sell wait for the price to hesitate on 78 or 23. If you think the move is stalling than enter.
Watch it for a few days and you will start to get the feeling for it.

Good luck...

Note: If you subtract Fib 0 level price from the Fib 100 price, the difference would be hovering around the average daily range. But the indicator does not look at the daily ranges, random walk with volatility gives out this result..
  • #42
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:33pm Apr 4, 2017 5:33pm
Earlier today, I drew this Supply zone on EurAud. If you put the fibs on today's (5 April) 78% & 100% are the exact numbers I drew here. Confluence is always good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA Supply_Random March 29.png Size: 55 KB
  • #43
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:37pm Apr 4, 2017 5:37pm
Quoting diamonddbw
Earlier today, I drew this Supply zone on EurAud. If you put the fibs on today's (5 April) 78% & 100% are the exact numbers I drew here. Confluence is always good. {image}
I totally agree on the confluence part but I don't know how supply/demand is figured out. So I will leave that to you
  • #44
  • Apr 4, 2017 9:41pm Apr 4, 2017 9:41pm
hmmm, I put on the ATR close then the RW on a 5 min chart and it draws the lines in the same place
  • #45
  • Apr 4, 2017 11:03pm Apr 4, 2017 11:03pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Long trades exit at D1Res0, short trades exit at D1Sup0, if these levels are not hit, you can close at the end of the day or wait for the next day if the swap is in your favor..
When I hold a trade overnight and D1Res0/D1Sup0 changes, is the TP of the previous day still valid?
  • #46
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:21am Apr 5, 2017 12:21am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy-m5-london-capital-group.png Size: 73 KB
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #47
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:03am Apr 5, 2017 2:03am
Hi GoldTheHun,

You said that the formula for random walk is Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore. I have two questions :
1. Volatility is the standard deviation of natural logarithmic daily return for some number of days ? If yes, which is that number of days ?
2. What means bars in sqrt(bars) ? And why this term is necessary ? It is for adapting somehow the daily volatility to the m5 chart ?
  • #48
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:25am Apr 5, 2017 2:25am
Have taken three trades this morning based on this method.
All three of them are in the money!
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #49
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:39am Apr 5, 2017 2:39am
Quoting Cobra
Have taken three trades this morning based on this method. All three of them are in the money!
Congrats Man.

If you get a chance, shed some light on method {BB or Any Other} you are using your using to define a trend.
  • #50
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:22am Apr 5, 2017 3:22am
Quoting alllivemind
hmmm, I put on the ATR close then the RW on a 5 min chart and it draws the lines in the same place
I have the same problem...can anyone help with this ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5.png Size: 41 KB
  • #51
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:25am Apr 5, 2017 3:25am
Quoting Traffex
{quote} When I hold a trade overnight and D1Res0/D1Sup0 changes, is the TP of the previous day still valid?
Up to you. Either accept them as valid, or use the new D1Res0 and D1Sup0 if they look more adventageous.
  • #52
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:30am Apr 5, 2017 3:30am
Quoting Cobra
Have taken three trades this morning based on this method. All three of them are in the money!
Great start, congrats Cobra. But I will assure you not every trade is gonna be like this. So always be selective.
One more thing, your Fibs are drawn the other way around. You should draw the Fibs in such a way that Fib100 matches D1Res0, Fib0 matches D1Sup0.

Good luck and keep it up..
  • #53
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:32am Apr 5, 2017 3:32am
Quoting kfarawi
{quote} I have the same problem...can anyone help with this ? {image}
Make sure you have at least 1500 of the 5 minute bars on chart.
  • #54
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:46am Apr 5, 2017 3:46am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Congrats Man. If you get a chance, shed some light on method {BB or Any Other} you are using your using to define a trend.
You should be able to see the direction of the trend when your 5 min is compressed.
Otherwise check the hourly.
Working on a 5 minute you cannot really go to a 4 hour as there are smaller trends within bigger trends. That will confuse you.

I am merely checking this out and are by no means the expert.
The bouncing off from fib levels within this method is interesting......

I am a trend trader and my focus is on the bigger picture!
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #55
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:51am Apr 5, 2017 3:51am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} You should be able to see the direction of the trend when your 5 min is compressed. Otherwise check the hourly. Working on a 5 minute you cannot really go to a 4 hour as there are smaller trends within bigger trends. That will confuse you. I am merely checking this out and are by no means the expert. The bouncing off from fib levels within this method is interesting...... I am a trend trader and my focus is on the bigger picture!
Thanks Cobra for your inputs...
  • #56
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:52am Apr 5, 2017 3:52am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Thanks for your comments aaven. Figuring out the trend is not a must really. If you know it, than it is much better of course. This random walk indicator calculates the possible levels that price could hit during the day. It calculates this using ZScores. For example if you enter short at level 78, and your target is hit (which is the zero level) your risk reward is approximately 1:3. So even you don't have a clue which way the day will go, there is a big chance the you will come out ahead in the long run. When the market switches to trend...
GoldTheHun,

Much appreciated for taking the time to guide me with your inputs...
  • #57
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:56am Apr 5, 2017 3:56am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Thanks for your comments aaven. Figuring out the trend is not a must really. If you know it, than it is much better of course. This random walk indicator calculates the possible levels that price could hit during the day. It calculates this using ZScores. For example if you enter short at level 78, and your target is hit (which is the zero level) your risk reward is approximately 1:3. So even you don't have a clue which way the day will go, there is a big chance the you will come out ahead in the long run. When the market switches to trend...
hi GoldTheHun, thanks for sharing this system. I could not agree more with the statement "...You should always feel the market........"
Im also a believer in ramdon walk, particularly for those 50-50% win ratio setups.
But (and this is a big but), if you really feel de market, IMO, it doesnt matter anything else. Any system, method, strategy, pattern, etc fails and any of them works.
I mean, when anyone feels the market then he/she has the edge on his/her side no matter what system, method, strategy, pattern is trading.
The challenge to me is how to tame that feeling, not to mention to master it. There is where, I believe, the implicit concept of ramdon walk helps a lot.

Thanks again for sharing and good trading!
  • #58
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:59am Apr 5, 2017 3:59am
Quoting aaven
{quote} GoldTheHun, Much appreciated for taking the time to guide me with your inputs...
You're welcome aaven. I hope they are beneficial to you....

Good luck....
  • #59
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:07am Apr 5, 2017 4:07am
Quoting Allthings-R1
{quote} hi GoldTheHun, thanks for sharing this system. I could not agree more with the statement "...You should always feel the market........" Im also a believer in ramdon walk, particularly for those 50-50% win ratio setups. But (and this is a big but), if you really feel de market, IMO, it doesnt matter anything else. Any system, method, strategy, pattern, etc fails and any of them works. I mean, when anyone feels the market then he/she has the edge on his/her side no matter what system, method, strategy, pattern is trading. The challenge to...
You're welcome Allthings...
Actually these levels makes it easier to feel the market (at least for me). When I watch the price action, I pay close attention to which levels are holding.. That gives me a feeling of the daily intentions. This is not %100 of course, but still helps.

Generally the price will not touch both the D1Res0 and D1Sup0 in the same day. That is an advantage for me for example.
If price goes up to D1Res1, it very rarely returns and touches the D1Sup0..

When you watch the price action together with these levels you will see a lot of angles.

Good luck in your trading...
  • #60
  • Apr 5, 2017 4:12am Apr 5, 2017 4:12am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Make sure you have at least 1500 of the 5 minute bars on chart.
Thank you for your reply GoldHun ... unfortunately that didn't solve the problem. Is it due to the fact that my broker has 5 digits after the comma in their data ?
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