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AUD/USD

  • #101,141
  • Apr 3, 2017 3:30am Apr 3, 2017 3:30am
Hello guys. I have been making Daily levels commentarys for some time. I think you may like it. I base my levels on price action and market profile. I think it could serve as a little bit of education. Have a look, I hope you like it. Happy trading!
Inserted Video
  • #101,142
  • Apr 3, 2017 6:18am Apr 3, 2017 6:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD divergence.png Size: 39 KB


Bullish STOCHASTIC divergence in the H1 timeframe.
And there's a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern.

Prepare to buy when the price breaks through the SUPER TREND indicator and the CCI breaks above 0 (preferably 100).
Above 0.7630 is a bullish possibility
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #101,143
  • Apr 3, 2017 6:18am Apr 3, 2017 6:18am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Good article. Iron ore supply obviously exceeding demand, stockpiles building rapidly, approaching maximum storage capacity, low grade ore being declined. Obviously very bad for iron ore price, therefor very bad for A/U.
Will AUD/USD return to 0.7550 levels? I remember in the March Fed Hike decision, AUD/USD was the biggest loser, dropping 2%.
  • #101,144
  • Apr 3, 2017 7:26am Apr 3, 2017 7:26am
Quoting yousername
{image} Bullish STOCHASTIC divergence in the H1 timeframe. And there's a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern. Prepare to buy when the price breaks through the SUPER TREND indicator and the CCI breaks above 0 (preferably 100). Above 0.7630 is a bullish possibility
buy @0.7612,
pinbar in H4 , I hope a valid one
  • #101,145
  • Apr 3, 2017 10:04am Apr 3, 2017 10:04am
Quoting Musanto
{quote} buy @0.7612, pinbar in H4 , I hope a valid one
Nice mate. But that is too early.
Did you put the order before the ISM got released?
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #101,146
  • Apr 3, 2017 8:24pm Apr 3, 2017 8:24pm
AUD trade data in 6minutes.
  • #101,147
  • Apr 3, 2017 8:43pm Apr 3, 2017 8:43pm
Once again the market has read this completely wrong.

The trade surplus has grown not because of exports but a massive decline in imports.
That spells a slowdown in the economy .. Australians are large consumers of overseas goods.

Credit card debt is at a staggering $34 billion in Australia ... Living beyond their means and choked with debt no wonder the imports have slowed.
  • #101,148
  • Apr 3, 2017 9:07pm Apr 3, 2017 9:07pm
Quoting lasty
Once again the market has read this completely wrong. The trade surplus has grown not because of exports but a massive decline in imports. That spells a slowdown in the economy .. Australians are large consumers of overseas goods. Credit card debt is at a staggering $34 billion in Australia ... Living beyond their means and choked with debt no wonder the imports have slowed.
Massive decline in imports? By my math the seasonally adjusted imports declined 5.26%, hardly massive. Trend estimate imports increased. Market reaction has also been minor (IMO) with less then 25 pips move.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #101,149
  • Apr 3, 2017 9:08pm Apr 3, 2017 9:08pm
Quoting Musanto
{quote} buy @0.7612, pinbar in H4 , I hope a valid one
It's starting to looking like a valid pinbar now after a positive Fundamental news from Australia.
And there's a Bullish divergence.
Waiting for the CCI to go over the 0 line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 22 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #101,150
  • Apr 3, 2017 9:09pm Apr 3, 2017 9:09pm
Even the algos didn't react that much the first seconds. Anyway it's mainly about the RBA statement today.
  • #101,151
  • Apr 3, 2017 10:04pm Apr 3, 2017 10:04pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Massive decline in imports? By my math the seasonally adjusted imports declined 5.26%, hardly massive. Trend estimate imports increased. Market reaction has also been minor (IMO) with less then 25 pips move.
DEBITS (IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES)

  1. In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $1,601m (5%) to $28,832m. Consumption goods fell $859m (10%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $792m (9%). Capital goods rose $77m (1%) and non-monetary gold rose $2m. Services debits fell $28m.

i think thats significant

  • #101,152
  • Apr 3, 2017 10:48pm Apr 3, 2017 10:48pm
Hmm today 1230 pm GMT +8 INTEREST RATE NEWS..
Look for a sell at 0.76700??
  • #101,153
  • Apr 3, 2017 11:32pm Apr 3, 2017 11:32pm
from MPS - " The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment"

indirectly saying aud still overvalued
  • #101,154
  • Apr 4, 2017 12:59am Apr 4, 2017 12:59am
Quoting Bicarus
from MPS - " The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment" indirectly saying aud still overvalued
They've had that sentence in every statement for at least the last year.
  • #101,155
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:21am Apr 4, 2017 1:21am
Though targets are at high yet it retrace to 0.7500 to 0.7380 before start for it> still may take few weeks time . Take care , fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 41 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #101,156
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:36am Apr 4, 2017 1:36am
I believe that the RBA statement/decision had minimal impact. It gave me an opportunity to increase my shorts. There is no way RBA could have increased the rate. And given the recent reports and the housing bubble concerns, there is no way RBA would have cut interest rates. I believe the AUD/USD is in a downward channel. My shorts worked well this time.

I also believe that the AUD/USD will bounce back from 0.7540. I then intend to go long with a target of 0.7623.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #101,157
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:29am Apr 4, 2017 4:29am
Hello guys,
I am glad you liked my video commentary that I posted here yesterday. Here is my today's daily levels commentary if you are interested. Enjoy!
Inserted Video
  • #101,158
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:43am Apr 4, 2017 4:43am
I am surprised that the interest rate is at the same level, given the housing bubble, and high retail indebtedness, RBA should increase the rate soon, maybe in the next round ? Its a reckless decision to keep the rate low, it would just make the bubble worst, and increase the indebtedness of the retail population...

There must be some clue indicating that RBA might consider rate hike in the next session...
  • #101,159
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:51am Apr 4, 2017 4:51am
Quoting RazorFish
I am surprised that the interest rate is at the same level, given the housing bubble, and high retail indebtedness, RBA should increase the rate soon, maybe in the next round ? Its a reckless decision to keep the rate low, it would just the make the bubble worst, and increase the indebtedness of the retail population... There must be some clue indicating that RBA might consider rate hike in the next session...
Just my personal opinion, I will be surprise if they raise rate.

Inflation and Unemployment data that came out aren't aligned with their expectations, it will be hard for them to raise rate. Retail sales and Chinese data didn't help much to support the raise of rate as well.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #101,160
  • Edited 5:37am Apr 4, 2017 5:02am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Just my personal opinion, I will be surprise if they raise rate. Inflation and Unemployment data that came out aren't aligned with their expectations, it will be hard for them to raise rate. Retail sales and Chinese data didn't help much to support the raise of rate as well.
I will highlite the hint that the next interest rate hike is coming brother:

Quote " Governor Lowe: "With interest rates so low, now is a good time for us to move in this direction. Hopefully, the changes might encourage a few more people to think about the merit of taking out very large interest-only loans when interest rates are near historical lows." In my opinion the changes is coming, which means hike in the rate on the radar screen.

Also he mentioned: "It is important, though, that we are all realistic about what these and other prudential measures can achieve. As I said before, the underlying driver in our housing market is the balance between supply and demand. The availability of credit is undoubtedly a factor that can amplify demand, but it is not the root cause. This assessment is consistent with the observation that housing market dynamics currently differ significantly across the country, despite Australia having nationwide financial institutions and the level of interest rates being the same across the country. It is hard to escape the conclusion that we need to address the supply side if we are to avoid ever-rising housing costs relative to our incomes and to avoid the attendant incentive to borrow that is created by rising housing prices"

By the way: more than 2/3 of his speech was around housing bubble and Indebtedness, and his warning sign is all over the place... International trade is something on the side and not part of his speech focus, because the commodity prices is going up.... Wages, well there might be wage hike in the near future, if the commodity prices is going up, and its continuing going up
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