Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 823 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #16,441
  • Apr 3, 2017 3:18am Apr 3, 2017 3:18am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} what is the difference between the variants you use on the FB lem, isit time or how you play them
V1 uses a buffer and V2 doesn't. At it's most basic level, that's it.

V2 was developed with the target ranges to work with a newer breakout method (hence the big BO letters that I annoyingly can't get rid of, lol).

It does mean that I will begin any needed counter moves at slightly different points.

I cannot find any real edge to either version - on any given day, both will perform just as well) and I just can't bring myself to drop one or the other now!
  • #16,442
  • Apr 3, 2017 3:37am Apr 3, 2017 3:37am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} it does seem abit overextended given the long drop its been on, nice to see how you can still squeeze +5 out of it regardless though!
Exactly. It shows the strength of the method. It also shows how although you may have a directional bias in mind (using whatever your own preferred method to find it), it is still possible to go against that bias if you know you are looking for +5.
  • #16,443
  • Apr 3, 2017 4:17am Apr 3, 2017 4:17am
The H4 (07.00) France-40 Cash (Three Kings) move (including a view of how Friday closed).

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Brent-US Crude Diff set-up is a typical Monday no-show as it waits for the US Open.
  • #16,444
  • Apr 3, 2017 4:20am Apr 3, 2017 4:20am
The Dead Zone's a' comin'
  • #16,445
  • Apr 3, 2017 4:28am Apr 3, 2017 4:28am
While I wait, here's how the DAX-Monster squared up on my charts...

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Once again, notice how price finds those zones through the day.
  • #16,446
  • Apr 3, 2017 4:42am Apr 3, 2017 4:42am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} V1 uses a buffer and V2 doesn't. At it's most basic level, that's it. V2 was developed with the target ranges to work with a newer breakout method (hence the big BO letters that I annoyingly can't get rid of, lol). It does mean that I will begin any needed counter moves at slightly different points. I cannot find any real edge to either version - on any given day, both will perform just as well) and I just can't bring myself to drop one or the other now!
If they bring in those % pips you guys mess with why drop it! Lol.
Someone made a post a few pages ago saying something along the lines of you guys don't use a set TP, is this fact lemercenaire?
  • #16,447
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:16am Apr 3, 2017 5:16am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} If they bring in those % pips you guys mess with why drop it! Lol. Someone made a post a few pages ago saying something along the lines of you guys don't use a set TP, is this fact lemercenaire?
Everyone is different. Tp is an easy way to exit the market without fuss.
  • #16,448
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:23am Apr 3, 2017 5:23am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} If they bring in those % pips you guys mess with why drop it! Lol. Someone made a post a few pages ago saying something along the lines of you guys don't use a set TP, is this fact lemercenaire?
Most of my methods move really quickly, I make sure I get in where I want to first. If I get a chance, I will drop a hard stop somewhere just out of the picture as a 'disaster-stop'. If needed later, I can / will then just move that one to where I want it.

I use the same thinking for my TP. I know what I want and where it's going to come. I go purely on the pip-counter and don't hesitate for even an instant if I see I've got my +5 and price looks like stalling.
  • #16,449
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:34am Apr 3, 2017 5:34am
Took EJ on The Dead Zone and looked like I wanted a short. I got the short but as I was heading into the H4 and Daily pivots, I didn't feel comfortable letting it run and took my +5. Sure enough, it's taken a bounce back and I'm now happy I did.

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I had options to consider on CJ, UJ and AN and the two former would have bagged easily on the predicted sells. AN had me thinking short as well but at the moment is doing nothing much of anything.

As for Mr-T's UC, I had it as a weak buy. It did indeed wander short for a slow-motion break but now seems to be heading back north.
  • #16,450
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:43am Apr 3, 2017 5:43am
Mr-T should have got his bag...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,451
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:45am Apr 3, 2017 5:45am
Seems I definitely made the right call to close on +5 on my EJ short...

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  • #16,452
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:47am Apr 3, 2017 5:47am
Quoting StudyFX
Money Management: 5 pips is good enough, but I shouldn't set a 5 pip TP? Does everyone here not use a set TP? I'm not sure how I would trade without a set TP. I think I would be very nervous because it may reverse on me after going +5.
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Most of my methods move really quickly, I make sure I get in where I want to first. If I get a chance, I will drop a hard stop somewhere just out of the picture as a 'disaster-stop'. If needed later, I can / will then just move that one to where I want it. I use the same thinking for my TP. I know what I want and where it's going to come. I go purely on the pip-counter and don't hesitate for even an instant if I see I've got my +5 and price looks like stalling.
Thank you Lem again! This answered another question of mine. So you basically watch the price closely once it goes +5. If price stalls, you get out right away. If it keeps running, you earn more pips. This way you can cover any losses or negative pips in limbo. I'm assuming a lot of you guys have similar approaches.

Lem, from all the pairs you watch for DZ, do you pick what you want to trade each day mostly by looking at price action and pivots?

I grabbed 5 pips from AUDUSD DZ today by the way.
  • #16,453
  • Apr 3, 2017 5:58am Apr 3, 2017 5:58am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} what is the difference between the variants you use on the FB lem, isit time or how you play them
Hello Piphunter

I'm guessing you're targeting +10 pips and being happy with +5 when price isn't moving the way you want it to. I was curious if you decided on when you would counter yet. (A set amount of pips? The opposite high/low? Wick zones?)
  • #16,454
  • Apr 3, 2017 6:24am Apr 3, 2017 6:24am
Quoting StudyFX
{quote} {quote} Thank you Lem again! This answered another question of mine. So you basically watch the price closely once it goes +5. If price stalls, you get out right away. If it keeps running, you earn more pips. This way you can cover any losses or negative pips in limbo. I'm assuming a lot of you guys have similar approaches. Lem, from all the pairs you watch for DZ, do you pick what you want to trade each day mostly by looking at price action and pivots? I grabbed 5 pips from AUDUSD DZ today by the way.
You couldn't actually have picked a much better day to ask this question, as my choice - EJ - gave me no chance to set any kind of TP. The set-up candle closed and we were off-and-running. I knew where those pivot-levels were and was almost 100 percent certain I'd be jumping off early.

As such, when price started to wobble, I banked.

Yes, I could have picked one of the other options as noted, however I know EJ well now and that experience with the pair tips the balance when calls are close. If I'd gone into things a little more deeply (always easier in hindsight when the clock's not ticking toward kick-off) the USD had news in the afternoon and could be unpredictable but CAD, tied as it is to OIL, was almost certain to move the most on the US Open.

AN was the wild-card, showing a sell, however it was a very weak sell, with higher lows and what looked like a solid level above on all time-frames. Easy to walk away from that one.

So in round up - I start with the first usual choice (in my stated order) and work my way along the set. If I come to a set-up that looks good, I need a good reason not to take it, I don't go looking for another one to take its place. Yes, I will then go make a list of alternatives but that's just good practice.

I look at the shape of the trigger bar first. Size of body cw size of wicks. Then surrounding PA especially in the two or three candles leading into the trigger-candle (best way to spot weak bias set-ups, as noted above).

Well done on the AU. I had that down as a weak sell, with higher time-frames' PA indicating a turn. The candle wasn't the prettiest look you'll ever see either. The thing is, even if I had been sucked into the short, running it as a WZ trade would have gotten me in immediately on a counter north after the tiny head-fake short and the pips would flow in from that. Sometimes it's good just to get a move started - as then you can react to the moves as they come, whichever way they go.
  • #16,455
  • Edited 7:13am Apr 3, 2017 6:35am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting StudyFX
{quote} Hello Piphunter I'm guessing you're targeting +10 pips and being happy with +5 when price isn't moving the way you want it to. I was curious if you decided on when you would counter yet. (A set amount of pips? The opposite high/low? Wick zones?)
If you're talking about the Frankenbreak, then the box is fixed at a maximum size of +20 pips (by me for use in The Frankenbreak, not in the original). Anything over that and there is a no-trade. The targets are set by the indicator as relative to the size of the box.

This is the only one of my methods that does have fixed tp points. (If the trade is going on all day and I perhaps have information I see that tells me I should be looking at it, then I will occasionally close out early. This also happens if one variant has closed and the other just missed. I will more often than not, close the open trade.

My original stats were based around getting the +5 pips on EG on a range less than or equal to 20 pips.

There is one other way to trade using this indicator and that is on GN and UNok, doing what I call 'Surfing The Alien', which involves putting a mid-line in there and even two mid-lines either side of that and trading as price crosses those lines. This works because these two pairs are basically - well...bonkers...It's like trying to ride a bronco with a burr under the saddle. Exciting as hell no doubt - but not something normal people enjoy doing every day.
  • #16,456
  • Apr 3, 2017 6:57am Apr 3, 2017 6:57am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} If you're talking about the Frankenbreak, then the box is fixed at a maximum size of +20 pips (by me for use in The Frankenbreak, not in the original). Anything over that and there is a no-trade. The targets are set by the indicator as relative to the size of the box. This is the only one of my methods that does have fixed tp points. (If the trade is going on all day and I perhaps have information I see that tells me I should be looking at it, then I will occasionally close out early. This also happens if one variant has closed and...
does this mean the FB has to be 20 pips to be traded lem, or am i reading this wrong
  • #16,457
  • Apr 3, 2017 7:01am Apr 3, 2017 7:01am
Quoting billytt
{quote} i take no losses... Now to contradict myself. Last year 4 losses, the year before 3 losses and the year before 3 losses, this year 1 loss. i trade 1 pair each day (sometimes 2) I might do 2 trades with that pair meaning i might enter a retrace trade. That is it.i am very selective and the more you trade the more chance you have to lose. should i get a bad trade and i counter i will wait for next trigger which could be next day, and yes you can counter a counter. you trade using a small percentage of a big bank roll. It is using muscle to...
billy, this has been troubling my lil brain for a while. on these losses you ended up taking (feeble in quantity that they are)
what led to these? just deciding to close out?
  • #16,458
  • Apr 3, 2017 7:08am Apr 3, 2017 7:08am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} does this mean the FB has to be 20 pips to be traded lem, or am i reading this wrong
The range has to be under 20 pips to be traded. The stats are rock solid for getting your minimum +5 on those numbers. (It's then entirely up to you if you go for the marked TP points).

I've edited the original post to cover this point.
  • #16,459
  • Apr 3, 2017 7:59am Apr 3, 2017 7:59am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} The range has to be under 20 pips to be traded. The stats are rock solid for getting your minimum +5 on those numbers. (It's then entirely up to you if you go for the marked TP points). I've edited the original post to cover this point.
thanks was just curious. going to focus solely on the h4 break for now. but in spare time and weekends going to collect stats on all the other setups just for practice and broader perspective of whats available once i am feeling confident and hopefully showing some ££££
  • #16,460
  • Apr 3, 2017 8:07am Apr 3, 2017 8:07am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} thanks was just curious. going to focus solely on the h4 break for now. but in spare time and weekends going to collect stats on all the other setups just for practice and broader perspective of whats available once i am feeling confident and hopefully showing some
AU H4 is a grand place to pitch your tent for sure.
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