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Pivot Trading

  • #8,241
  • Edited Apr 1, 2017 8:12am Mar 31, 2017 8:18am | Edited Apr 1, 2017 8:12am
E/A Lower time frame TDI all up, bouncing from S38, Daily P/A up, confluence with Daily uptrend. One previous Badly timed entry.

Davit I realize of course trend lines are not generally focused on here other than to clarify general direction, but I think in instances such as this when they correlate with pivot points they may provide confluence which supports taking the trade while applying your strategy. It is the first time I have mentioned a trend line in this manner posting here, so I hope you will tolerate any perceived indiscretion. As I realized the price was dropping towards this point, I held off entering until I saw PA and other factors supporting an entry here. In the closing hour of the market, ending weekly, monthly and quarter, the E/U dropped enough versus the Aussie to bring the E/A close marginally below the D/T line with an inverted hammer on Daily. Not a bullish signal, butt still hovering at S38 zone. Cheers
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  • #8,242
  • Apr 1, 2017 11:41am Apr 1, 2017 11:41am
Finished March in red.Not by significant numbers but rather very moderate loss as you can see the graph.Poor performance mostly due to family issues my son's surgery and not being focused on trading.Happens and we move on with head high.Spike is fund I added.


Now looking at my 1Q profits numbers speak for themselves whether this system is profitable or not.
I'll say looks stellar! Despite of poor performance in March my account is way up since Jan 2017
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,243
  • Apr 1, 2017 11:47am Apr 1, 2017 11:47am
Quoting Tamarind77
March 2017 only {image}
great job far better then mine
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,244
  • Apr 1, 2017 12:04pm Apr 1, 2017 12:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} great job far better then mine
Thanks Davit, result from your system

But, in my opinion, your result is better than mine.

From January to March 2017.
Flat graph because holding DD on EA, so cant have more trade, so it is flat
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I know one thing, that I know nothing - Socrates
  • #8,245
  • Apr 1, 2017 12:34pm Apr 1, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting Davit
Finished March in red.Not by significant numbers but rather very moderate loss as you can see the graph.Poor performance mostly due to family issues my son's surgery and not being focused on trading.Happens and we move on with head high.Spike is fund I added. Now looking at my 1Q profits numbers speak for themselves whether this system is profitable or not. I'll say looks stellar! Despite of poor performance in March my account is way up since Jan 2017 {image} {image}
You have had a lot to deal with and worrying about your son etc etc. You at least are honest that March was not too good but that equity curve from January is certainly one to be admired and give you credit for. Well done!! excellent as usual.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #8,246
  • Apr 2, 2017 5:51am Apr 2, 2017 5:51am
Davit, I think it is not a big deal for coders in FF to create an EA for this strategy. we can martingale in each WP line when price goes against our direction and finally we can close the basket by using x% of equity gain.
This EA will be mostly beneficial for traders who have Day jobs.
Don't chase the trades but let them come to you.
  • #8,247
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:46am Apr 2, 2017 6:46am
Quoting lisat
{quote}You have had a lot to deal with and worrying about your son etc etc. You at least are honest that March was not too good but that equity curve from January is certainly one to be admired and give you credit for. Well done!! excellent as usual.
Thank you friend and green pips to you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,248
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:48am Apr 2, 2017 6:48am
Quoting OsaFX
Davit, I think it is not a big deal for coders in FF to create an EA for this strategy. we can martingale in each WP line when price goes against our direction and finally we can close the basket by using x% of equity gain. This EA will be mostly beneficial for traders who have Day jobs.
Hi Osa
I never asked for EA and don't believe in it either. Program can't substitute discretionary trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,249
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:48am Apr 2, 2017 6:48am
Quoting OsaFX
Davit, I think it is not a big deal for coders in FF to create an EA for this strategy. we can martingale in each WP line when price goes against our direction and finally we can close the basket by using x% of equity gain. This EA will be mostly beneficial for traders who have Day jobs.
But it is also essential to look PA around strong suport and resistence area. I guess you can't do iy with EA. Correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks.
  • #8,250
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:52am Apr 2, 2017 6:52am
Interesting article on AUD
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...conomist-warns
Interest rate will fall to 1% and Australian dollar will drop sharply, economist warns
The housing market wont support GDP as much as in recent years, he said, arguing the RBA had overestimated the strength of the economy. Far from some market expectations of a rate rise this year, he said governor Philip Lowe would have to cut the cash rate from 1.5% to as low as 1% to keep inflation above its 2% target.
The RBA wont raise rates in 2017 or likely in 2018, and I wouldnt be putting much money on a hike in 2019 either. In fact, with the housing market slowing, the labour market weakening and inflation staying below target its possible that there will be cuts this year to 1%.

We may see a spike on AUD 77 before crashing below 75. Watching this closely.
AN finally may come down fast below 600
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,251
  • Apr 2, 2017 7:09am Apr 2, 2017 7:09am
Quoting Tamarind77
{quote} Thanks Davit, result from your system But, in my opinion, your result is better than mine. From January to March 2017. Flat graph because holding DD on EA, so cant have more trade, so it is flat {image}
Tamarin

Amazing results return to DD Ratio is 40:1 ....

Great motivation to thread followers..

Wish you all green pips always.......

MK
  • #8,252
  • Apr 2, 2017 7:15am Apr 2, 2017 7:15am
Quoting Davit
Interesting article on AUD https://www.theguardian.com/australi...conomist-warns Interest rate will fall to 1% and Australian dollar will drop sharply, economist warns The housing market wont support GDP as much as in recent years, he said, arguing the RBA had overestimated the strength of the economy. Far from some market expectations of a rate rise this year, he said governor Philip Lowe would have to cut the cash rate from 1.5% to as low as 1% to keep...
Davit

Property investors is creating big problem for RBA.

RBA wants to reduce the rate to boost inflation but only property prices get inflated every time on reduction of interest rates and going beyond the affordability of common man...

So now they are thinking to increase rates to stop increase in property prices

Thanks
  • #8,253
  • Apr 2, 2017 7:21am Apr 2, 2017 7:21am
Quoting mkfx
{quote} Davit Property investors is creating big problem for RBA. RBA wants to reduce the rate to boost inflation but only property prices get inflated every time on reduction of interest rates and going beyond the affordability of common man... So now they are thinking to increase rates to stop increase in property prices Thanks
I think its highly unlikely to increase rate now on soft labor and low inflation.My sentiment is bearish still on AUD
we had EA hit 43 last month and could break 45 this month.Anyway AUD continues to fascinate me.
regards

The RBA has one job, really. To manage inflation. Right now, inflation is amazingly low. Too low, really, for comfort.
The consumer price index went below zero in one three-month period last year, which was somewhat of a shock. This next graph shows the annual pace of change, and it has fallen well below the two-to-three per cent range the RBA aims at.
This is a clear sign rates shouldn’t go up. Raising rates is what you do when inflation gets too high. (The reason: higher rates should lead to more saving and less spending, in turn causing businesses to not put up prices. They should also lead to less borrowing which should also lead to less spending, also causing businesses to not put up prices.)
So long as inflation is limp and low, rate rises are going to be very tricky for the RBA. That is why inflation is going to be the number one thing to watch in 2017.
One in five Aussies would be under housing stress if interest rates go up just 0.5 per cent.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,254
  • Apr 2, 2017 3:14pm Apr 2, 2017 3:14pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think its highly unlikely to increase rate now on soft labor and low inflation.My sentiment is bearish still on AUD we had EA hit 43 last month and could break 45 this month.Anyway AUD continues to fascinate me. regards The RBA has one job, really. To manage inflation. Right now, inflation is amazingly low. Too low, really, for comfort. The consumer price index went below zero in one three-month period last year, which was somewhat of a shock. This next graph shows the annual pace of change, and it has fallen well below the two-to-three...
I think I've posted before, Australia is in a bad place. About the only things keeping up afloat a the moment seem to be housing and construction. Housing is a bubble and has been for a while. It's at the point the average family in a major city cannot afford to buy in. Construction will tick along for a while in the states that are investing in infrastructure, but they're pricing themselves out. It's one of the most unionized sectors of the economy, and frequently pays better than being a doctor! I know one bloke who payed more in tax the last few years than I earned pre tax, although I think he does want to stay away from the young baby at home.

Personally I don't see any upside to the Australian economy at the moment. A few people with the right skills will make out like bandits, but the rest of us will strugle.
  • #8,255
  • Apr 2, 2017 3:24pm Apr 2, 2017 3:24pm
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...on-hold-steady
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #8,256
  • Apr 2, 2017 5:13pm Apr 2, 2017 5:13pm
Agree about the Aussie- also employment figures and job adverts both had big misses reported from Feb.
Lowe has expressed concerns before about very poor employment figures being the only precursor to further cuts.
Also there has been reports of ore demand from China to start slowing shortly.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-0...levels/8399728
Plus CPI not looking good
Lowe has said that he has issues about housing indebtness before - but I think the banks have got a decent handle on it. (this was one of the main issues that prevented Lowe from making further cuts)

In respect of the poor recent figures - we have been here before- and Lowe just rode it out-(but the market thought he was talking crap and it sold off)

Obviously at the moment all eyes are on Trumps meeting with the Chinese premier. Trump is talking a tough game. Think China will be on the charm offensive. Any agreement should strengthen the Aussie

Think if we get really poor employment figs for April and if the meeting does not go well this week- then think he could act.
  • #8,257
  • Apr 2, 2017 5:39pm Apr 2, 2017 5:39pm
All due out today Australian time 8:33 A.M. now


10:30amAUD
AIG Manufacturing Index


12:00pmAUD
MI Inflation Gauge m/m
-0.3%12:30pmAUD

12:30 P.M.
Retail Sales m/m
0.3%0.4%AUD

Building Approvals m/m
-1.4%1.8%AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
-0.7%5:30pmAUD

Commodity Prices y/y


Tomorrow:

3:30pmAUD
Cash Rate

1.50%1.50%AUD
RBA Rate Statement


12:30pmAUD
Trade Balance

8:15pmAUD
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • #8,258
  • Apr 2, 2017 5:50pm Apr 2, 2017 5:50pm
Thank you guys for making this thread real productive one.
I appreciate all fundamental perspectives.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,259
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:04pm Apr 2, 2017 6:04pm
Quoting Davit
Thank you guys for making this thread real productive one. I appreciate all fundamental perspectives.

The credit goes to you Buddy. Great thread and we all appreciate your constant efforts to maintain and update it.

A major concern in Australia is the increase in part time jobs at the expense of full time jobs, especially in the younger age groups.

http://library.bsl.org.au/jspui/bits...loyed_2017.pdf

"Underemployment – having some work but wanting more hours – is the highest it's been in 40 years.
More than 650,000 young people were unemployed or underemployed in February 2017."

I hope your son is home and recovering Buddy.
  • #8,260
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:08pm Apr 2, 2017 6:08pm
I think your all being way too pessimistic about the Aussie economy. I have a business here in Sydney and it's been the best year I have ever had. 200,000 a year immigrants coming in, hundreds of coal fired power stations being built around the southern hemisphere will need our good quality coal, China still growing at 6.9% will need our iron ore, housing is booming, company tax for business up to 50 mill turnover cut to 25%, etc etc.
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