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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #16,401
  • Apr 1, 2017 12:55pm Apr 1, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting billytt
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote}{quote} I've read your posts on compounding and I think I understand it unless you use compounding in other ways. I screenshot a post where you described your initial trade being +10 then you bank it enter again with double the size and stop at - 10? So in effect if you lose you take a 10 pt. Loss and if it comes through you've banked 30? Not sure if I explained it in the exact way but very clever lol is this the gist of it or do you have other clever ways lol? What I was asking is what to do if you have two days
...
Did I get the basis of compounding the trade correct in my explanation bill? I understand Im happy with the clues I don't mind fishing lol! From what I was able to compile today on AU there was 51 instances that price did the full 10 followed by 20 and 36 instances that it didn't (but obviously within that are a lot of situations that it would of gone +15 +17 etc so there's definitely a bit of weight there so far. See what it ends up being when I zero in to the present time
  • #16,402
  • Edited Apr 2, 2017 4:03am Apr 1, 2017 12:58pm | Edited Apr 2, 2017 4:03am
Quoting billytt
{quote} ok another clue/S. you don't counter a counter but counter the next trigger if it fails. I actually trade an advanced form of grid trading so i have been told... (not a uniform grid)
This I'm not entirely sure I get.. So as opposed to taking the next trade we watch it go down and hit it if it fails? Thanks again Bill. Saw so much power in the stats so far today. Going to slog through the rest tomorrow. Then demo or trade a 0.01 lot, see if I get caught up in a counter eh! Stats also confirmed your - 20 threshold is the sensible route seems to be the real zone when the trades about to be in trouble even when the bar has a bigger range. I tracked the wick zone aswell. That showed some interesting stuff!

Question about 'trading the failure' is the entry wherever your threshold to be considered a failure is in ur stats or the other end of the candle? Unless the candle size is smaller than ur threshold
  • #16,403
  • Apr 2, 2017 4:20am Apr 2, 2017 4:20am
[quote=Piphunter00;9728697]{quote}{quote} Did I get the basis of compounding the trade correct in my explanation bill? I understand Im happy with the clues I don't mind fishing lol! From what I was able to compile today on AU there was 51 instances that price did the full 10 followed by 20 and 36 instances that it didn't (but obviously within that are a lot of situations that it would of gone +15 +17

Which time frame is above? Of the failed trades how many made +5, i will be out for most of the day .
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,404
  • Apr 2, 2017 4:45am Apr 2, 2017 4:45am
[quote=billytt;9729252]
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote}{quote} Did I get the basis of compounding the trade correct in my explanation bill? I understand Im happy with the clues I don't mind fishing lol! From what I was able to compile today on AU there was 51 instances that price did the full 10 followed by 20 and 36 instances that it didn't (but obviously within that are a lot of situations that it would of gone +15 +17 Which time frame is above? Of the failed trades how many made +5, i will be out for most of the day .
Out of those 36 instances listed they all made +5 and +10 they just didn't go onto complete +20 (after seeing ur post about Compounding into a trade thought it would be useful to track that) I worked from April 4 to September 1 2016 so far (chart only went that far back for some reason) and out of all the trades that reached - 20 before +10 only a small fraction didn't make +5 I will post the exacts numbers when I am home. Also aim to have the rest of the stats completed I will share if anyone's interested. Probably be amateur compared to what you guys are working with though!
  • #16,405
  • Apr 2, 2017 10:54am Apr 2, 2017 10:54am
Quoting lemercenaire
Hey ho, away we go, we're on the road to never... ...Or as it's otherwise known, the weekend. As we have to have this enforced time away from the screens, I suppose we should try and enjoy it ...Have a good one, folks and I'll see you on the other side. Watch the skies ...
I am so bored on the weekends >.> just want the charts to be moving (and moving fast)
  • #16,406
  • Apr 2, 2017 10:55am Apr 2, 2017 10:55am
Quoting Piphunter00
Quoting billytt
{quote} Out of those 36 instances listed they all made +5 and +10 they just didn't go onto complete +20 (after seeing ur post about Compounding into a trade thought it would be useful to track that) I worked from April 4 to September 1 2016 so far (chart only went that far back for some reason) and out of all the trades that reached - 20 before +10 only a small fraction didn't make +5 I will post the exacts numbers when I am home. Also aim to have the rest of the stats completed I will share if anyone's interested. Probably
...
Chart time is what made me better
  • #16,407
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:32am Apr 2, 2017 11:32am
Quoting Piphunter00
Quoting billytt
{quote} Out of those 36 instances listed they all made +5 and +10 they just didn't go onto complete +20 (after seeing ur post about Compounding into a trade thought it would be useful to track that) I worked from April 4 to September 1 2016 so far (chart only went that far back for some reason) and out of all the trades that reached - 20 before +10 only a small fraction didn't make +5 I will post the exacts numbers when I am home. Also aim to have the rest of the stats completed I will share if anyone's interested. Probably
...
Someone's been busy

One thing you may not be aware of but which should be definitely kept in mind, especially if you find yourself thinking that you should go for more than "just" +5. Change that from +5 pips per day, to +5 percent.
  • #16,408
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:34am Apr 2, 2017 11:34am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote}{quote} Chart time is what made me better
Hard work is what made you better, buddy. Don't sell yourself short.
  • #16,409
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:35am Apr 2, 2017 11:35am
Damn - I managed to hold out for 1 1/2 days, lol. Sucked back in...
  • #16,410
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:43am Apr 2, 2017 11:43am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote}{quote} Someone's been busy One thing you may not be aware of but which should be definitely kept in mind, especially if you find yourself thinking that you should go for more than "just" +5. Change that from +5 pips per day, to +5 percent.
Thanks lem. Defo busy. No wonder they created algos to do all that dirty work! Took forever lol I've collected the numbers up to present but was so burnt out I haven't yet actually stuck it all together and ran the probabilities and frequencies just yet lol

Yeah I always keep in mind that you can make a pip anything. What worries me with that is getting the consecutive curveball at 1% a pip. I don't think I fully understand the MM method yet. I've seen billy mentioning keeping separate bankrolls etc but I'm only working with 1k so I'm not sure what the best way to work with it is.

Wat wannalearn said is the absolute truth. I'm going to demo for 1 week, then next week after that trade the 0.01 lot and I'm sure I'll gain some hands on insight from that. Stats were definitely useful. Your post before lem, where you mentioned possibly shifting focus on the h4 bar to the wick zone only I definitely saw why youd say that and I've yet to properly run the numbers
  • #16,411
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:46am Apr 2, 2017 11:46am
Quoting billytt
{quote} ok another clue/S. you don't counter a counter but counter the next trigger if it fails. I actually trade an advanced form of grid trading so i have been told... (not a uniform grid)
Before I go I wanted to clear something up... just in case this is causing genuine confusion for you, PH... That post I made a ways back, the one about "shhh don't mention the counter of the counter's counter just yet" or some such thing - that was said with my tongue very firmly in my cheek!!! My bad, sorry.
  • #16,412
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:52am Apr 2, 2017 11:52am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Thanks lem. Defo busy. No wonder they created algos to do all that dirty work! Took forever lol I've collected the numbers up to present but was so burnt out I haven't yet actually stuck it all together and ran the probabilities and frequencies just yet lol Yeah I always keep in mind that you can make a pip anything. What worries me with that is getting the consecutive curveball at 1% a pip. I don't think I fully understand the MM method yet. I've seen billy mentioning keeping separate bankrolls etc but I'm only working with 1k so I'm not...
Ultimately, you won't know for sure (which method suits you best, +pips or +%) until you suck it and see. The method(s) are so consistent that a couple of weeks using both will quickly let you see what's what.

Enjoy the process!
  • #16,413
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:58am Apr 2, 2017 11:58am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Ultimately, you won't know for sure (which method suits you best, +pips or +%) until you suck it and see. The method(s) are so consistent that a couple of weeks using both will quickly let you see what's what. Enjoy the process!
Thats what I'm boiling it down to lem! Going to just go for it and work out the kinks!

LOL I had a feeling that may have been the case! Although Billy made a comment that he's yet to clarify for me that has confused me about 'not countering a counter but countering the next trigger if it fails' I'm sure he will clear it up for me when he's available though.

I guess the last thing I really should know about countering is if the market does something insane overnight and your negative position is seriously battering your account (dam near gone) but the positive one has all of it back does that refrain you from getting margin called or anything
  • #16,414
  • Edited 2:02pm Apr 2, 2017 1:28pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Thats what I'm boiling it down to lem! Going to just go for it and work out the kinks! LOL I had a feeling that may have been the case! Although Billy made a comment that he's yet to clarify for me that has confused me about 'not countering a counter but countering the next trigger if it fails' I'm sure he will clear it up for me when he's available though. I guess the last thing I really should know about countering is if the market does something insane overnight and your negative position is seriously battering your account (dam near...
PH....thanks for asking all these questions (and thanks guys for all your answers!). We are at very similar stages of this countering education so it has been of a great help to me also. From what I understand, and seen, of the countering trade is that the +ve and the -ve trade essentially cancel each other out - so if you took the counter at -1%, for example, then no matter what happens to the price you will always be at -1% (plus the extra commission and spread of the counter trade). Thus giving you the valuable currency, 'time', to decide what to do next - perhaps taking a trade on the next setup etc. (I am assuming here that you are with a broker that allows hedging on the same account/platform).
  • #16,415
  • Apr 2, 2017 1:34pm Apr 2, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting Pent56
{quote} PH....thanks for asking all these questions (and thanks guys for all your answers!). We are at very similar stages of this countering learning so it has been a great help to me also. From what I understand, and seen, of the countering trade is that the +ve and the -ve trade essentially cancel each other out - so if you did the counter at -1%, for example, then no matter what happens to the price you will always be at -1% (plus the extra commission and spread of the counter trade). Thus giving you the valuable currency, 'time', to decide...
That's exactly right - it's in limbo for as long as you want it to be.
  • #16,416
  • Apr 2, 2017 3:00pm Apr 2, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Thats what I'm boiling it down to lem! Going to just go for it and work out the kinks! LOL I had a feeling that may have been the case! Although Billy made a comment that he's yet to clarify for me that has confused me about 'not countering a counter but countering the next trigger if it fails' I'm sure he will clear it up for me when he's available though. I guess the last thing I really should know about countering is if the market does something insane overnight and your negative position is seriously battering your account (dam near...
Take a read through the thread. I asked a ton of questions, might pick up something useful
  • #16,417
  • Apr 2, 2017 3:44pm Apr 2, 2017 3:44pm
Hello everyone,

I've been reading this thread as much as I can to get a grasp of how you guys are trading. Just like Pent, I also wanted to thank Piphunter for asking a lot of questions. For now, I wanted to summarize what I understood until now and ask some questions. Please point out anything if you believe I am approaching it the wrong way. I highlighted the questions I had.

Breakouts I can trade:
1) Billy bar: 4:00am-8:00am (UK time) H4 bar (4 hours before London Open)
I believe Billy trades AUDUSD. I'm not sure if he has a buffer of 5 points of 5 pips.

2) 7:30 or 7:45 bar (UK time) M30 or M15 bar before London Open
DAX. I believe Billy also traded GBPUSD at one point.

3) Dead Zone: 12:00pm (UK time) H1 bar (1 hour before New York Open)
I believe Lem doesn't use any buffers. I know I would have to do the work to gather stats and decide which pair I would trade this on, but has anyone mentioned which pair they enjoy trading the DZ? Lem seems to post a lot of screenshots of Dead Zones, but I can't seem to figure out if he's trading all of them or not. Isn't that too many pairs to focus on at the same time?

4) Witching Hour: 23:00pm or 0:00am candle (UK time) H1 bar (1 hour before Tokyo Open)

Money Management:
5 pips is good enough, but I shouldn't set a 5 pip TP? Does everyone here not use a set TP? I'm not sure how I would trade without a set TP. I think I would be very nervous because it may reverse on me after going +5.

Countering is a key part of this style of trading. There are several ways to get out of a loss.
1) Counter and keep it in limbo until the next day set up. If stats are good, you will be able to overcome that loss over the next few days.
2) Counter with a bigger lot size.

Compounding? I haven't caught up on this yet.

Question: Where to counter?
I understand this differs by person, but are these options correct?
1) I can counter at a certain amount of pips I decide on. Maybe -10 pips.
2) I can counter at the opposite high/low of the candle.
3) I can counter at the middle of the candle. (Like Lem?)
4) I can counter using the Wick Zone(?).

Using Wick Zones
I'm not sure exactly how the wick zone is used. Lem mentioned if price goes into the upper wick zone and breaks the high, he goes long. If it goes in the zone but comes back down, he would sell when it comes out of the upper wick zone. Vice-versa for the lower wick zone. He would go for +5 pips.

  1. If price broke the high and came back into the wick zone, does that give another entry once price comes out of the wick zone again? Or should I only be trading the first time it comes out of the zone? (The wick zone is used through the whole NY sessions for several entries?)
  2. Wouldn't the price go in and out of the wick zone several times (triggering a lot of buys and sells)? Is there a max amount of trades I should be taking/holding?

I feel like my questions are confusing. I think I just need more clarification of how Wick Zones are used.

I hope it doesn't seem like I'm trying to be spoon fed in any way. I am willing to make the effort to reach the level you guys are at. If you guys think I should read the thread more before asking these questions, I'll accept that. But I would appreciate any answers to my questions. I will definitely continue to read the thread and learn from you guys. Have a great day guys.

  • #16,418
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:52pm Apr 2, 2017 6:52pm
Back, 00-50 Mon morning. i have been at my lady's all day messing around in her garden. It has been busy in here and i shall try and answer questions.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #16,419
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:52pm Apr 2, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting StudyFX
Hello everyone, I've been reading this thread as much as I can to get a grasp of how you guys are trading. Just like Pent, I also wanted to thank Piphunter for asking a lot of questions. For now, I wanted to summarize what I understood until now and ask some questions. Please point out anything if you believe I am approaching it the wrong way. I highlighted the questions I had. Breakouts I can trade: 1) Billy bar: 4:00am-8:00am (UK time) H4 bar (4 hours before London Open) I believe Billy trades AUDUSD. I'm not sure if he has a buffer of 5 points...
Phew! Thought I'd just check in for a nosey before kip, lol. Good questions though.

I'm also on my phone just now so I'll bat one back at you for now before my thumbs cramp up and then get back to you on the rest through the day tomorrow (today now).

First thing to clear up is a legit query on preferred pair(s) for The Dead Zone. I tested across every pair I could get and came up with the ones I post - all of them were chosen because they exhibited a similar movement profile. As such, you can be safe using any one (in theory).

In practice, the order I post them in is the order to look at them - you'll see the order posted is always the same. This isn't random.

I prefer to look at 1: EJ, 2: UC (Mr-T's fave) and AU first round.

If the set-ups don't look promising, then I'd look at the others. One thing that keeps some out of reach for some is the fact that the spreads in the more exotic pairs may be too large.

Now, I have also been running The DZ on indices with great success but don't post these (yet). So watch this space on those.

Anyway, I'm off for now and as I said, I'll get to the other parts of your question that are aimed at me over the course of the day.
  • #16,420
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:54pm Apr 2, 2017 6:54pm
[quote=Piphunter00;9729270][quote=billytt;9729252]{quote} Out of those 36 instances listed they all made +5 and +10 they just didn't go onto complete +20 (after seeing ur post about Compounding into a trade thought it would be useful to track that) I worked from April 4 to September 1 2016 so far (chart only went that far back for some reason) and out of all the trades that reached - 20 before +10 only a small fraction didn't make +5 I will post the exacts numbers when I am home.

Hi, which time frame? +20 is for daily break.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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