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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,241
  • Edited Apr 2, 2017 3:16am Apr 1, 2017 1:25pm | Edited Apr 2, 2017 3:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok a bit weird lines placement but thats a more appropriate current range... sisse
I have revisited the first time price was in the current range, as far a 1987, and this is what I found, maybe this levels are more apropiate.


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This picture changes my view a lot.

Using the same aproach, my short/mid term map for EURUSD would be:

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I go with A, we don't have a clear top and we are in uptrend.
  • #149,242
  • Apr 1, 2017 1:45pm Apr 1, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting sisse
Q3: Now putting in context direction with the current leg I ask the same question this time to actually define the TA view. I the current leg are we going: a. UP to complete a pullback b. DOWN we already completed the pullback c. NEUTRAL we are stating a consolidation at the top before the long term, swing down with the trend starts. d. None of the above / I am lost... sisse sisse
A for me. If this is wrong, I could be too far from the market (if possible).
On selecting b or c, how does one know the pullback is complete or we are at the top, TA wise alone? If you come back to me in say 3 to 6 months, I could probably tell you when the current leg pullback was completed and maybe 2 or 3 years time, the long term swing down resumes...I would think likely answer from most would be price action...I would only think that the LT swing down is possibly on is if the current MT low/LT flip were broken.

Quoting goosebone
TA becomes much less relevant when you zoom out to much much larger ones .
Would think the opposite, can clearly see where the mid term range is in the bigger picture..and if the flip I outlined is correct, is where participants are bearish on the dollar below the level, I'm probably stating the obvious here...no offense goosebone, just thinking out loud, for precise entries, your probably right

Maybe the aha moment here is to always start at the long term chart and also look at the dollar in isolation (sisse has mentioned this many times in the past anyway) before even thinking about looking at a usd pair chart..could be wrong
  • #149,243
  • Apr 1, 2017 2:30pm Apr 1, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting goosebone
A. Up to complete the pullback I think rate hike expectations should carry dollar higher for a time. When normalisation feels "normal" to markets, perhaps after regime change at the FED and 2017 hikes are fact not rumor, maybe that will complete the pullback. It's not black and white to me looking at the chart but I think that's where it's at. Might be wrong, might be obvious, but I think in the same way FA is hardly relevant when you zoom to tiny time frames (5 minute, 1 hour, etc) TA becomes much less relevant when you zoom out to much much larger...
agreed with goose again, A + bearish midterm close
  • #149,244
  • Edited 8:38pm Apr 1, 2017 8:04pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting PAStalker
{quote} A for me. If this is wrong, I could be too far from the market (if possible). On selecting b or c, how does one know the pullback is complete or we are at the top, TA wise alone? If you come back to me in say 3 to 6 months, I could probably tell you when the current leg pullback was completed and maybe 2 or 3 years time, the long term swing down resumes...I would think likely answer from most would be price action...I would only think that the LT swing down is possibly on is if the current MT low/LT flip were broken. {quote} Would think...
No offense whatsoever. I value your take. I was hoping secretly someone would come back at that to be honest. As Pharmor has said before, that's what a public forum is for.
Reading your comment to sisse in the same post i gotta admit you sound as if you might agree with me on that point more than you think though. Just in the sense that it may be possible to get "too far from the market" from TA perspective. And feeling challenged by picking the top of that pullback like you mentioned is, for me, where I feel like all I got in my corner is FA. I may be reading into it though.
Its an interesting subject. I'll be dealing with it more as it almost feels like learning 3 new languages at the same time at the moment and that's 2 of them. Larger time frame trading and TA this way.

Agree totally with the last part you wrote there.
  • #149,245
  • Apr 1, 2017 9:52pm Apr 1, 2017 9:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} I the current leg are we going: a. UP to complete a pullback b. DOWN we already completed the pullback c. NEUTRAL we are stating a consolidation at the top before the long term, swing down with the trend starts. d. None of the above / I am lost... sisse sisse
a. for me

Thanks
  • #149,246
  • Apr 1, 2017 9:55pm Apr 1, 2017 9:55pm
Quoting sisse
Q2: From a strictly very basic price point of view of the current candle alone would you consider todays Q/M/W/D close: A. Very Bullish B Bullish C. Neutral D. Bearish E. Very Berish F. Irrelevant / No clue sisse
I see B.
thanks
  • #149,247
  • Apr 2, 2017 1:06pm Apr 2, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting PAStalker
....how does one know the pullback is complete or we are at the top, TA wise alone? If you come back to me in say 3 to 6 months, I could probably tell you when the current leg pullback was completed and maybe 2 or 3 years time, the long term swing down resumes...I would think likely answer from most would be price action....
Quoting goosebone
{quote} ....sense that it may be possible to get "too far from the market" from TA perspective. And feelin... by picking the top of that pullback like you mentioned is, for me, where I feel like all I got in my corner is FA. I may be reading into it though.... ,
If you want to 'crack' what I think its the important in this conversation, you really need to break away from some trading paradigms.

First, I asked for this long term to define direction (no more no less) for the mid term swings because of the Q close. You both seem to be looking/trying to call/eyeball/ catch/trade the ultimate top on that massive long term retrace which is pretty much useless for actual trading.

Second, the point of defining direction and outlooks is to get in synch with the market to trade the path of least resistance in the mid or short term but not swinging the long term in FX as it's not tradable for anybody here. Nobody is going to hold and manage a position swing for +12 years in spot trading, etc ...

Third, you both seem starting with a very wrong assumptions about trading the very highs or lows in those waves. I know where it prolly comes from ....your trading background in some stage if not always have been focus in micro Tfs where entering extremely precise in the highs or lows is the only option to catch a +/-20 / 30 micro pips range, the 'in between' is too small to trade consistently.

Fourth, as I mentioned a few times to @ IMARICH1, @Pharm0r, and many others when trying to explain a new idea. Try to 'forget' for a minute everything you know about trading . Just for a second to see if something click and can be used in whatever way you want in your own terms.

Let me ask you both a quick question about FA to put some context before we talk about some of the TA you are talking about:

--> Can you tell me what happened in the last Quarter 2007 in Dollar?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,248
  • Edited 6:01pm Apr 2, 2017 3:13pm | Edited 6:01pm
Q4 2007 was the first three-month period in which GDP shrank since during the last official recession of 2001. Home price drop triggered subprime defaults. August 2007, Federal Reserve recognized that banks didnt have enough liquidity to function. The Fed began adding liquidity by buying banks subprime mortgages. Treasury started buying toxic debt.
Beginning of the beginning of the end.
No idea if that's the fundamental area you meant to pinpoint with the question though.
  • #149,249
  • Apr 2, 2017 3:36pm Apr 2, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting goosebone
Q4 2007 was the first three-month period in which GDP shrank since during the last official recession of 2001. Home price drop triggered subprime defaults. August 2007, Federal Reserve recognized that banks didnt have enough liquidity to function. The Fed began adding liquidity by buying banks subprime mortgages. Treasury started buying toxic debt. Beginning of the beginning of the end.

Depends on where you want to recognize the micros that snowballed macro. Home price drop was second phase not initial, MBSEs were designed with strategical failure, frontend shorted "hedged" to create snowball, when home prices strarted to drop everything was already set in place to get to scenario 5 unless FED rescued LB which it did NOT (oh hello 1st class in macroeconomy - CB rescuing any branch that could lead to large shortfall). Buying pennies on dollars from dirty ground is way more profitable for those who chip in to fractional reserve system the most than throwing hundred bills to prevent the shortfall. And you always need a guy like Paulson that just shows perfect hammer to hit all the nails that goverment sees as problem.
In regards to GDP and PMI there is very nicely overlaping pattern of structural crisis to follow if those print few bad strokes in the row. Its never a initiation, but it is something that goes hand in hand to situation.
  • #149,250
  • Edited 5:54pm Apr 2, 2017 3:52pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} --> Can you tell me what happened in the last Quarter 2007 in Dollar? sisse
In Q4 2007 was bottom of USD index (~70.0) and top of stock market (~1578 SP500).
  • #149,251
  • Apr 2, 2017 4:59pm Apr 2, 2017 4:59pm
looking to buy eu 1.0585/0340.. with stops below 1.0340. targeting 1.13xx with some closer pt 1.1087.. atm level 0960.. maybe support 0640 ish.. willing to consider shorts after 1.1087 or 1.13xx.. playing that by ear for now..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,252
  • Apr 2, 2017 5:49pm Apr 2, 2017 5:49pm
Quoting yg10
In Q4 2007 was bottom of USD index (~70.0) and top of stock market (~1578 SP500).
Sure but thats after the fact information...not worth it for live analysis.

Quoting goosebone
Q4 2007 was the first three-month period in which GDP shrank since during the last official recession of 2001. Home price drop triggered subprime defaults. August 2007, Federal Reserve recognized that banks didnt have enough liquidity to function. The Fed began adding liquidity by buying banks subprime mortgages. Treasury started buying toxic debt. Beginning of the beginning of the end. No idea if that's the fundamental area you meant to pinpoint with the question though.
You are overshooting the analysis. Didn't meant a macro FA analysis. Start from the very basics. I just want to give you some FA perspective in Dollar not explain all factors in play.

Simple answer. Rates cycle cuts started.

Aug, 2007 | 5.25
Sep, 2007 | 4.75%
Oct, 2007 | 4.50%
Dec, 2007 | 4.25

->Now what happened with the swing? we found a floor isn't it?

->What happened in 2008? Yes sure biggest financial crisis since 1930, Lehman and etc etc...but what happened with rates?...and what happened in the chart?

->What happened on 2009 till 2011 in the monetary policy side Dollar only? ...what happened in 2011, 2012, 2013 with the FED?. yes we consolidate before triggering the pullback ..

->What changed in 2014 to 2015? did the FED change anything? ...what happened in charts? yes the pullback started, isn't it?

->What is going since 2015 till today?....

Keep it simple and very basic for now to the main monetary policy factors. Dont try to make a full institutional macroeconomic analysis in this one. Try to put basic FA in context ....you will thank me later...

We'll discuss later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,253
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:05pm Apr 2, 2017 6:05pm
"Keep it simple and very basic for now to the main monetary policy factors. Dont try to make a full institutional macroeconomic analysis in this one. Try to put basic FA in context"
Ok. Thanks. Will do.

On the chart:

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  • #149,254
  • Apr 2, 2017 6:29pm Apr 2, 2017 6:29pm
For better perspective on rate cycles , use tradingview dxy chart , click on compare and search for FEDFUNDS and add it .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,255
  • Apr 2, 2017 8:06pm Apr 2, 2017 8:06pm
Quoting hoom
For better perspective on rate cycles , use tradingview dxy chart , click on compare and search for FEDFUNDS and add it . {image}
This helps a lot to visualize. Thanks.
  • #149,256
  • Apr 2, 2017 9:05pm Apr 2, 2017 9:05pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}Simple answer. Rates cycle cuts started. Aug, 2007 | 5.25 Sep, 2007 | 4.75% Oct, 2007 | 4.50% Dec, 2007 | 4.25 ->Now what happened with the swing? we found a floor isn't it?, What happened in 2008? Yes sure biggest financial crisis since 1930, Lehman and etc etc...but what happened with rates?...and what happened in the chart?
Smart traders started selling Stocks and went into safe haven, they bought the dollar that's why the DXY rose despite the fed cutting interest rates.


Quoting sisse
{quote}What happened on 2009 till 2011 in the monetary policy side Dollar only?
The Fed dropped the interest rate to Zero?




Quoting sisse
{quote} What changed in 2014 to 2015? did the FED change anything? ...what happened in charts? yes the pullback started, isn't it? ->
There was expectation the Fed would start raising interest rate soon.

Quoting sisse
{quote} What is going since 2015 till today?.... Keep it simple and very basic for now to the main monetary policy factors.
Fed raised interest rates 3 times since and the US Economy looks ready for more future interest rates hikes.
  • #149,257
  • Apr 2, 2017 11:42pm Apr 2, 2017 11:42pm
Let's trade the Q2 ... Guys all the best ... Happy green pips to all....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,258
  • Edited 2:02am Apr 3, 2017 1:38am | Edited 2:02am
Hello everybody! I've been lurking on this thread for quite some time now and wish ta make a humble contribution. I'm seeing a support zone between 635-600 and will long a few pips above 635 targeting 716 with first 1/3 of position, 794 with next 1/3 and 872 on final 1/3. Of course I will reload if the first target is reached at the starting level.
  • #149,259
  • Apr 3, 2017 8:04am Apr 3, 2017 8:04am
Uneventful European session with very little to update. Expecting slightly softer reports from the US today but nothing out of the ordinary.

On the FX board, Euro trading irrelevant levels around this area, 1.073x is the only level to track till the Minutes. Odds of further momentum in a quick clean sweep in the current leg are fading and so the volatility in the pair till further data...

Not much to see or do here....

sisse

Quoting goosebone
"Keep it simple and very basic for now to the main monetary policy factors. Dont try to make a full institutional macroeconomic analysis in this one. Try to put basic FA in context" Ok. Thanks. Will do. On the chart: {image}{image}
...that is TA and after the fact information....

Quoting Vorex
{quote} Smart traders started selling Stocks and went into safe haven, they bought the dollar that's why the DXY rose despite the fed cutting interest rates. {quote} The Fed dropped the interest rate to Zero? {quote} There was expectation the Fed would start raising interest rate soon. {quote} Fed raised interest rates 3 times since and the US Economy looks ready for more future interest rates hikes.
OK... just one highlight, I am trying to separate facts from bias or opinions with this. (I know in the current world of politics with some myopic Trumpheters and Brexiters across the Atlantic this its almost impossible to do ....[not referring about you btw but just a side comment] ).

Is not that any of you are right or wrong in the answer but what I was aiming with these questions is a simple straight forward, unadulterated FACT:

-> The simple answers in order were: 1. FED started the rates cycle [cutting] | 2. QE1 started and further cuts in the cycle | 3. QE2/3 and rates at 0 end of rate cuts | 4. QE end and normalisation rates cycle [hikes] start.

I am choosing this particular TF since 2007 till 2017 to show a COMPLETE RATES cycle. From the first cut to the first hike...Thats about it.

What I am trying to highlight is that now we are on stage 1 again but in the way up and you can get in synch with the cycle very early. Also and we'll discuss a lot about this later in the year. ECB is about to end QE end and start the normalisation rates cycle [hikes]...

Just some context in the chart. TA is irrelevant for this part...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,260
  • Apr 3, 2017 8:27am Apr 3, 2017 8:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...that is TA and after the fact information....
I know. Not meant as a response to your main question. Just the What happened on the chart? part of it.
Got the point.
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